Rakosi posted:

If al-Baghdadi is caught standing in a field doing whatever the gently caress, I hope a drone blows him to bits. If he is at a wedding with women and children I hope a drone does not blow him, and many innocent others, to bits. I did say, for the nth loving time, that I hope they drop the bomb on al-Baghdadi. Not al-Baghdadi and civilians. You are taking a bit of angered expression, out of context, and are still running with it over a day after the fact.

Do you have a life?

TomViolence posted:

I think dropping a bomb like that on a single person is incredibly wasteful, to be frank, and is antithetical to the prescribed purpose of such munitions.

Rakosi posted:

If al-Baghdadi is caught standing in a field doing whatever the gently caress, I hope a drone blows him to bits. If he is at a wedding with women and children I hope a drone does not blow him, and many innocent others, to bits. I did say, for the nth loving time, that I hope they drop the bomb on al-Baghdadi. Not al-Baghdadi and civilians. You are taking a bit of angered expression, out of context, and are still running with it over a day after the fact.

Do you have a life?

Rakosi posted:

I think budgetary exceptions can be made for exceptional people.

Tesseraction posted:

I'm responding to you at the same time of the evening as you're responding to me. Even if the answer to your question was "no" then you're still showing the same lack of social life as me.

But I'm doing fine thank's for asking.

And your dumb as poo poo response to that poorly-thought missile signing is something I will harangue you with because you're a dumb and bad poster who severely over-estimates your support amongst the regulars here.

Pissflaps posted:

This seems unlikely considering they targeted pubs and shopping centres.

Rakosi posted:

what the gently caress are you even talking about, hahah. Get out of here, you can't have made that post.

Cerebral Bore posted:

How does this compare with the RAF dropping ordnance on urban areas?

Zephro posted:

There's no mention in the manifesto that they'd try to keep the customs union either.

quote:

We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain.

jabby posted:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/868596179260645376
So the Tory lead this week is somewhere between 5 and 14 points. Probably.

Killed By Death posted:

I'm sorry, but you are mistaken here. Page 24 of the Manifesto

Pissflaps posted:

Do you think 'benefits of' means 'membership of'?

Pissflaps posted:

It is on.

Tesseraction posted:

because you're a dumb and bad poster who severely over-estimates your support amongst the regulars here.

Killed By Death posted:

If you have all of the benefits of membership, what difference does it make?

Hoops posted:

Holy poo poo you can't even see how this makes you look. My dude you absolutely have to get out more.

jabby posted:

Labour range still between 3 and 9 points above your expert prediction.

Pissflaps posted:

Did that happen during The Troubles?

Killed By Death posted:

I'm sorry, but you are mistaken here. Page 24 of the Manifesto

Zephro posted:

This is just "we'll have our cake and eat it", ie the position even Boris Johnson no longer defends. That's why they say they want " the benefits" rather than simply saying we'll stay in. But it's a fantasy. No free movement = no single market.

Killed By Death posted:

I'm sorry, but you are mistaken here. Page 24 of the Manifesto

quote:

Labour recognises that leaving the EU with ‘no deal’ is the worst possible deal for Britain and that it would do damage to our economy and trade. We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option and if needs be negotiate transitional arrangements to avoid a 'cliff-edge’ for the UK economy.

quote:

A Labour approach to Brexit also means legislating to guarantee that Parliament has a truly meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal.

Pissflaps posted:

Well membership of is unambiguous whereas benefits of is not.

Zephro posted:

This is just "we'll have our cake and eat it", ie the position even Boris Johnson no longer defends. That's why they say they want " the benefits" rather than simply saying we'll stay in. But it's a fantasy. No free movement = no single market.

kustomkarkommando posted:

kustomkarkommando posted:

As everyone keeps taking about the IRA its clear everyone wants to get into a discussion about Northern Irish electoral politics! Well probably not but there are a couple of seats that will be interesting to keep an eye on so here's some guff so that NI:18 that pops up in seat projections can have a bit of extra spicy flavor. Of course remember this election is coming off the back of the earlier Assembly election which saw a huge turnout jump and a successful Sinn Fein get out the vote campaign which many imagine will have a knock on effect here which could tip a few seats (in different ways).

Not that it will stop everything collapsing anyway. Oh well.



Fermanagh & South Tyrone: The Grudge Match Vol 3



A seat that now routinely returns insanely tight results, though being Bobby Sands' seat it's no stranger to controversy. Won by SF's Michelle Gildernew in 2001 from the UUP and successfully defended even after a punt from now DUP leader Arlene Foster. The UUP (then in alliance with the Tories) and the DUP negotiated an electoral pact in 2010 to stand aside for a consensus independent Unionist candidate - who subsequently lost by a mere 4 votes. A second go at an electoral pact resulted in a UUP victory in 2015 but with a majority of only 530 (the 15th smallest majority in the last election). Experienced the SF voter bump in the 2017 assembly election and Gildernew is odds on favourite to recapture the seat.


Belfast South: First Past The Post Is Dumb



One of the most contentious seats out there - Currently held by the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell with a mere 24.5% of the vote, the lowest winning vote share in any seat since 1945, and a majority of only 906. Once a solidly Unionist seat; Belfast South captures the majority of the cities student population, a handful of working class areas and several leafy suburban areas making it fertile grounds for smaller progressive parties. Seen as poor ground for Sinn Fein they sat out the 2010 election but decided to field Máirtín Ó Muilleoir, a former Belfast lord mayor and self-made millionaire newspaper owner, splitting the nationalist vote and undermining Alasdair McDonnell (then leader of the SDLP). McDonnell was already on thin ice as many saw him to blame for the SDLP's continual decline and following the 2015 election he subsequently lost a leadership challenge to current leader Colum Eastwood.

Sinn Fein performed extremely well here in the 2017 Assembly Election, bringing them well within striking distance to the SDLP and Alliance. Fears that further Sinn Fein gains at the expense of the SDLP could hand the seat over to the DUP (who are eager to take it) lead to an attempt to negotiate a pro-Remain voting pact between the Greens and SDLP. This ultimately collapsed though over the issue of keeping McDonnell as the SDLP's candidate - as one of the most outspokenly pro-life voices within the SDLP and a key opponent of abortion reform the Greens refused to stand aside to back him.

The SDLP may just hold the seat though. As a strongly Remain voting area the DUP's enthusiastic Leave credentials may motivate some voters to vote tactically to keep them out.


South Antrim: The DUP's revenge



The seat the DUP where never meant to lose. The unexpected victory of the UUP's Danny Kinahan over long time DUP figure Willie McCrea was a considerable surprise to many and the DUP are more than keen to reverse this. Though other parties run this is a two horse race and will be a battle between the two parties of Unionism on their respective stances - Kinahan is a liberal unionist who supports same-sex marriage and has a softer stance on abortion reform which puts him in stark contrast to the DUP's traditional conservatism. Both parties polled decent figures at the 2017 Assembly election (SF surge won't change much here) though the UUP was lower on first preference, but of course STV is different to FPTP and Kinahan should be expected to peel some tactical voters off from Alliance/SDLP. Bit off a toss up but the DUP probably has the edge.

Belfast East: LibdemAlliance fightback



Another major election upset returns to haunt us. This time Belfast East, former seat of DUP leader Peter Robinson which he lost in spectacular fashion to Alliance candidate Naomi Long in 2010 following a prolonged scandal involving his wife and his personal finances. Long's victory spooked them enough that they negotiated a no contest pact with the UUP (in part motivated by the FLEG protests that targeted Alliance) to recapture the seat in 2015 - however the vote didn't transfer as overwhelming as the DUP may have hoped and Alliance remains more than competitive in this constituency. A staunchly unionist constituency, the only part of Belfast that voted Leave, don't be expecting any nationalist surprises here.

Attempts to renegotiate another no contest pact for this election did not go so smoothly and the UUP will now be fielding a candidate - prompting many to think Long, now leader of Alliance, will retake the seat. Several bookies seem to agree and have her shortened her odds to be the favorite to win.


South Down: Sinn Fein attempts to rip out and consume the beating heart of the SDLP



The SDLP lose in South Down? You must be having a laugh. Next to Derry one of their most solid heartlands that was a cold house for Sinn Fein come election time. Even looking at the 2015 result it seems unlikely that SF where primed to come within 10% of the party. But then the 2017 Assembly election happened and turnout shout up over 12% and Sinn Fein got more 1st preference votes than the SDLP got votes in the 2015 election. This is a key target SF seat and the place where they are most likely to reap electoral reward from the assembly election boost - Previous losing candidate Chris Hazzard will be having another go at former SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie and his odds are looking good. Other parties do run here but the unionist vote is slugs it out among themselves. An SF victory here would be a body blow to the SDLP.



Outside punts include Sinn Fein running a similar raid on the SDLP in Derry, they topped in the assembly poll for the first time in 2017 and will be put up a strong challenge but it's expected the SDLP which will just edge them out due to tactical transfers and the SDLP getting out their loyal voting base - of course giving SF another chance to complain the SDLP only remain in power because Unionists vote for them. Also Belfast North, held by Nigel Dodd's of the DUP, which SF are having a punt at with John Finucane (son of Pat Finucane) hoping to capitalize on the strong Remain vote with a strong Leave mp factor though their odds seems long here.

hakimashou posted:

Speaking of Northern Ireland, what is the bottom line on their being able to form a government vs return to direct rule by westminster?

I haven't seen anything about it since the snap election got called.

Hoops posted:

If we're doing predictions already, I'll say 36% for Labour and a Tory majority of about 80. I don't know if those two things are plausible together or not.

Namtab posted:

Also jabby if you're going to keep calling flaps out on his prediction of 29% Labour vote share and con majority of 60 (iirc) I'm going to need you to post counter predictions which I will then judge you both harshly on.

E: flaps if I've remembered your predictions plz correct me

hakimashou posted:

Speaking of Northern Ireland, what is the bottom line on their being able to form a government vs return to direct rule by westminster?

I haven't seen anything about it since the snap election got called.

Namtab posted:

Done. Jabby?