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ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:Sweet, so I don't have to stay up late ala Brexit. Most excellent I think the brexitexit poll was also accurate, I stayed up that whole night and don't remember much E: today is the birthday of one of the idolm@ster girls Namtab fucked around with this message at 00:04 on May 31, 2017 |
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May 31, 2017 00:02
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Namtab posted:I think the brexitexit poll was also accurate, I stayed up that whole night and don't remember much There wasn't one.
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May 31, 2017 00:02
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Loving Africa Chaps posted:Pretty much straight away and it was bang on. The only way i can see that projection being true is if we have a "shy corbyn" effect where people don't want to say they're voting for him but actually like his policies and vote for him anyway. It's unlikely YouGov included a shy Labour effect in this prediction. It's far more likely if it turns out to be horribly inaccurate it's because voting groups that said they would turn out for Labour didn't.
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May 31, 2017 00:03
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Pochoclo posted:This is horrifying and the real heinous aspect of this is that it's so goddamn easily solvable. Hell, the bastards are probably putting in effort to gently caress it up this bad. like, she already has a wheelchair. It wouldn't solve everything but all you'd need to do to at least increase her quality of life significantly is find a ground floor apartment somewhere, how can this be a thing we can't manage as a society Loving Africa Chaps posted:Pretty much straight away and it was bang on. In fact, it merely predicted the Tories being the largest party instead of having a majority, though that's not really much of a failure given how small the majority was. Still it made for a fun evening that started with holy poo poo surely not and slowly mutated into, oh no it's not after all it's actually worse. Fun times.
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May 31, 2017 00:05
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ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:Sweet, so I don't have to stay up late ala Brexit. Most excellent ala brexit i am going to get horrifically drunk regardless of the outcome
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May 31, 2017 00:05
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Pissflaps posted:There wasn't one. Told you I didn't remember much!
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May 31, 2017 00:05
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and then ala brexit decided weather this was a good or bad thing when I finally mange to switch on the tv the next afternoon and remember what happened
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May 31, 2017 00:05
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Pissflaps posted:Does it?
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May 31, 2017 00:05
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I imagine the headline "youth turnout" figure will be significantly higher than before just because a lot of people with no political engagement will have just fallen off the electoral register due to the new rules. That isn't to say that more young people will actually vote in absolute terms, just that a greater proportion of those registered probably will.
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May 31, 2017 00:07
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I hear Corbyn is trying to send Britain back to the 1970s so this is a very good thing.
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May 31, 2017 00:07
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All those years and it was never 69
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May 31, 2017 00:07
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So 'no' then? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 31, 2017 00:07
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ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:when did the Beeb announce the exit poll in 2015? I would have been paying attention but I had personal things to deal with As others mentioned, it was immediately after the polls closed, but I want to add that one of the things which really stood out was that everyone was blown away by it, for the first few hours even the Tory panelists didn't believe the poll.
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May 31, 2017 00:08
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Namtab posted:Told you I didn't remember much! There wasn't one, and leave thought they'd lost so badly Farage had conceded by half past 10, then quickly un conceded.
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May 31, 2017 00:09
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Turnout figures are given as a proportion of the eligable electorate not the ones on the register I'm pretty sure? And iirc, I have a feeling the 2015 beeb exit poll put the Tories at 326 seats: I have that stuck in my head as a prediction for some reason.
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May 31, 2017 00:09
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nothing to seehere posted:Turnout figures are given as a proportion of the eligable electorate not the ones on the register I'm pretty sure? 
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May 31, 2017 00:11
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El Grillo posted:Have you guys seen this poo poo (Guardian video today, lady with a disability affected by cuts): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fbUqcc2bGs gently caress me that is horrendous.
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May 31, 2017 00:11
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Pissflaps posted:So 'no' then? since 1992: -13% -14% -2% +14% -8% Sure looks like "changing markedly" to me.
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May 31, 2017 00:11
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Angepain posted:like, she already has a wheelchair. It wouldn't solve everything but all you'd need to do to at least increase her quality of life significantly is find a ground floor apartment somewhere, how can this be a thing we can't manage as a society It sounded like the cabbies bought her the wheelchair after seeing her struggling, not that she got it from the government or was somehow able to afford it herself. It's a loving tragic video though, especially when you consider that of the 12 million disabled people in the UK there are likely tens or hundreds of thousands with as serious or worse health problems as her struggling along.
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May 31, 2017 00:12
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Julio Cruz posted:since 1992: You're perfectly entitled to think that.
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May 31, 2017 00:14
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But you see if they were just prepared to put some effort in they could get themselves out of *farrrrrrt*
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May 31, 2017 00:14
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e: you know what I have better things to do with my time than argue with useless cretins
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May 31, 2017 00:18
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Not trying to sound crass but that 12 million figure was surprising to me. What are the least severe conditions that are included in the definition?
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May 31, 2017 00:19
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Pissflaps posted:So 'no' then? Iooking at the last 20 years a range of 38-54% with an average change of 7.8% If we look at the last 30 years that range goes up to 38-67 with an average change of 7.2% All recordings on that list is 38-70 with average change of 5.9% Interestingly then, there's more average changes in the % of youth voters in recent years, whereas it was a lot more stable and higher pre-blair. Whether this is significant or not is for you lot to decide
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May 31, 2017 00:19
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Jesus that video. How do we unfuck this.
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May 31, 2017 00:22
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'Guess the 18-24 turnout percentage' would be a fun game. I'll go with 56%.
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May 31, 2017 00:23
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-backseating, accidental post-
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May 31, 2017 00:23
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Steve2911 posted:Jesus that video. canvas for labour in a marginal
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May 31, 2017 00:25
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For final comparison Post 97 is 38-57 with an average change of7.8% Pre 97 is 61-70% with an average change of 2.8% So yes, in recent years there has been a marked change in youth voting figures, both in terms of being consistently lower than before as well (sometimes less than half eligible) as well as a dramatic shift in the variance between elections. This is an objective fact as shown by the numbers pissflaps posted
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May 31, 2017 00:25
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Pissflaps posted:'Guess the 18-24 turnout percentage' would be a fun game. I'll go with 56%. 56% seems a little high, I'm feeling 53%
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May 31, 2017 00:28
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Going with 63%
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May 31, 2017 00:28
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Namtab posted:For final comparison An average change of 8% doesn't sound dramatic or marked to me. Your use of the terms is subjective.
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May 31, 2017 00:28
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El Grillo posted:Not trying to sound crass but that 12 million figure was surprising to me. What are the least severe conditions that are included in the definition? I'm not sure but one of the sources I looked at says that 1.2 million people use a wheelchair: http://www.papworthtrust.org.uk/sites/default/files/Disability%20Facts%20and%20Figures%202016.pdf (page 20). Even assuming (just to pick a number from the air) that three quarters have enough mobility that they only need to use their wheelchair part of the time, that's going to be a lot of people living in places unsuited to the basic need of being able to get around their own home unassisted.
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May 31, 2017 00:31
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Going with 63% gently caress it, im gonna say 69%, the funny sex number also don't forget to  for a charity lads, I'm going with centrepoint
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May 31, 2017 00:31
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Pissflaps posted:An average change of 8% doesn't sound dramatic or marked to me. Your use of the terms is subjective. as is your use of the terms. i'm looking real hard in my statistics dictionary but "marked" isn't actually a rigorously defined term. just to clarify here, this is a discussion you started about the meanings of words that don't have a specific meaning.
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May 31, 2017 00:32
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OY VEY SHUT IT DOWN
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May 31, 2017 00:33
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Angepain posted:as is your use of the terms. i'm looking real hard in my statistics dictionary but "marked" isn't actually a rigorously defined term. just to clarify here, this is a discussion you started about the meanings of words that don't have a specific meaning. No it started here Irony Be My Shield posted:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/ I don't think the relatively small changes in turnout justifies claiming that relying on historic turnout figures is unreliable.
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May 31, 2017 00:37
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A bunch of idiots unconnected with the Labour party posting crap on twitter is front page evidence that Corbyn hates Jews.
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May 31, 2017 00:38
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big scary monsters posted:A bunch of idiots unconnected with the Labour party posting crap on twitter is front page evidence that Corbyn hates Jews. I suspect Sam Hyde is behind all of this
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May 31, 2017 00:40
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big scary monsters posted:A bunch of idiots unconnected with the Labour party posting crap on twitter is front page evidence that Corbyn hates Jews. Also no mention of everyone telling them to gently caress off immediately.
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May 31, 2017 00:41
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