|
Hellblazer187 posted:You can't throw away Price's wins or Romney's margin either. It is not an R+1 district. I didn't say it was a R+1 district, and I absolutely can throw away Price's wins. Romney's win matters, but 2016 did happen. Trump annihilated Hillary in the Kansas district and in Montana.
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 11:07 |
|
|
Spiritus Nox posted:We've heard this story before. And if the polls are as accurate as they were for Hillary, then...he wins, because there's no complication of an electoral college. We can't call it yet, but I think we're allowed hope. Just not certainty.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:12
|
|
|
Rigel posted:We aren't hoping that the Dems barely win the house. We're optimistically hoping that the GOP is crushed in 2018 in a huge wave. In that timeline, Ossof wins with a decent little margin to spare. I dunno, I think it just signals the need for a change in emphasis of strategy. If Ossof loses, that means the Dems shouldn't be putting very much more resources into winning these affluent white never-Trump Republican districts, and should be focusing almost entirely on winning blue collar districts. They should be doing the latter in either case, though, of course.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:12
|
|
|
If Trump tries to block Comey from testifying I don't think it will have much significant effect on the investigation since Mueller's going to have everything from Comey anyway. What it would do is make Trump look super bad and further piss off the IC, so he'll probably do it. Trump Doctrine: do the stupidest possible thing for the stupidest possible reason.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:13
|
|
|
Rigel posted:I didn't say it was a R+1 district, and I absolutely can throw away Price's wins. Romney's win matters, but 2016 did happen. Trump annihilated Hillary in the Kansas district and in Montana. So incumbency is worth 20 points over a generic ballot? Is there ANY data to support such a contention?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:13
|
|
|
TheScott2K posted:Read it earlier today. Pure, uncut moral panic about the poor. really OP? i read in that a story of the societal contract our country has with its citizens having eroded to monstrous degrees; of a family who desperately needs help that story is basically "we need a UBI" in the form of rural poverty tragedy
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:13
|
|
|
Pellisworth posted:If Trump tries to block Comey from testifying I don't think it will have much significant effect on the investigation since Mueller's going to have everything from Comey anyway. Yup. He seems dead-set on looking like he's obstructing justice, which is perfectly fine with me. Keep incriminating yourself, fuckwit. 
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:14
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:Were you feeling too happy today? Am I supposed to be able to click somewhere? All I get is an image and the headline.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:14
|
|
|
Pellisworth posted:If Trump tries to block Comey from testifying I don't think it will have much significant effect on the investigation since Mueller's going to have everything from Comey anyway. The talking heads on MSNBC seemed to think he waived executive privilege re: Comey after he publicly commented on their conversation.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:15
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I dunno, I think it just signals the need for a change in emphasis of strategy. If Ossof loses, that means the Dems shouldn't be putting very much more resources into winning these affluent white never-Trump Republican districts, and should be focusing almost entirely on winning blue collar districts. They should be doing the latter in either case, though, of course. That is true. I'll still be disappointed because it'll be compelling evidence of no wave, but we wouldn't be doomed either, we'd have to lower our expectations to barely winning.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:15
|
|
|
botany posted:Am I supposed to be able to click somewhere? All I get is an image and the headline. Scroll down.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:15
|
|
|
botany posted:Am I supposed to be able to click somewhere? All I get is an image and the headline. Do yourself a favor and skip it. It's Friday and life is lovely enough as it is.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:15
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I dunno, I think it just signals the need for a change in emphasis of strategy. If Ossof loses, that means the Dems shouldn't be putting very much more resources into winning these affluent white never-Trump Republican districts, and should be focusing almost entirely on winning blue collar districts. They should be doing the latter in either case, though, of course. i don't even have to read your posts to know what they say anymore
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:16
|
|
|
BootStrap posted:The talking heads on MSNBC seemed to think he waived executive privilege re: Comey after he publicly commented on their conversation. Yeah I have no idea if Trump would actually be successful in blocking Comey, but I think he's sure gonna try.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:16
|
|
|
Pellisworth posted:do the stupidest possible thing for the stupidest possible reason.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:17
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:So incumbency is worth 20 points over a generic ballot? Is there ANY data to support such a contention? Again, I did not say this was a neutral or R+1 district, so no, obviously incumbency is not worth 20 points if Price, a long-time incumbent, wins by 20 back in years when the public doesn't hate the GOP. Its more like 10 points, maybe stretching to 15. This is somewhere between R+5 and R+10, so if Ossof loses, there is probably no wave.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:17
|
|
|
Star Man posted:Scroll down. Doesn't do anything, I thought that far ahead myself. edit: Scrolling doesn't work but arrow keys do. Well then.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:17
|
|
|
Yikes. https://twitter.com/PoPville/status/870283512666095617 https://twitter.com/MayorBowser/status/870293472032550914
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:17
|
|
|
Alter Ego posted:Well, I only mention that because his friend, that guy who keeps popping up on cable TV, said that Comey was obsessive about documenting his encounters with Trump, and that he would have scads of notes ready to go if needed. Hope is a mistake, etc., etc. HOWEVER, the thing about Comey isn't just that he took notes on Trump. It's that he made those notes into official memos that are now part of the public record. Supposedly every time he had a hosed up encounter with Trump, he'd write an official memo and have it field in the FBI's records. IIRC the FBI hasn't released them to anybody so as to not to interfere with the special prosecutor.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:18
|
|
|
botany posted:Doesn't do anything, I thought that far ahead myself. Weird. Worked for my mouse wheel.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:19
|
|
|
theflyingorc posted:i don't even have to read your posts to know what they say anymore Amazingly, the same goes for yours as well: Me: We should focus more on the working class. You: Nuh-uh! Rigel posted:That is true. I'll still be disappointed because it'll be compelling evidence of no wave, but we wouldn't be doomed either, we'd have to lower our expectations to barely winning. Possibly, but I think a wave could still happen. It just wouldn't come from those affluent suburbs. But I'll be disappointed and less confident if Ossof loses, no question.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:19
|
|
|
Press Briefing with Press Secretary Sean Spicer and Administrator of the EPA Scott Pruitt scheduled to start in 10 minutes
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:19
|
|
|
Piell posted:Press Briefing with Press Secretary Sean Spicer and Administrator of the EPA Scott Pruitt scheduled to start in 10 minutes Any dissent from the press pool will result in face full of rolling coal.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:20
|
|
|
tetrapyloctomy posted:I would like to see this in Latin on the Trump family's coat of arms. Be a hell of a t-shirt. we probably have a Latin nerd in the thread but if not I'll ask in the christianity thread "in thought and action, as stupid as possible" something like that would be amusing
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:21
|
|
|
sean10mm posted:Hope is a mistake, etc., etc. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. I'm glad to hear Comey did what everyone should have been doing: meticulously documenting Trump's utterly dangerous and deranged state of mind regarding the office. Even if it was purely in his own self-interest, Comey's diligence here is huge.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:21
|
|
|
Waffles Inc. posted:really OP? I don't think it would help them, they are obviously not very bright, to say the least - one of the family is literally suffering from Down syndrome, so there's no moral failing there. They just can't manage money. The article reminds me of the Kallikak nonsense from eugenics times. Yes, there are families out there who are not the sharpest tools in the drawer and there always will be. It keeps social workers employed, but doesn't mean society is going to hell in a handbasket. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Kallikak_Family
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:23
|
|
|
Piell posted:Press Briefing with Press Secretary Sean Spicer and Administrator of the EPA Scott Pruitt scheduled to start in 10 minutes So if it starts at least 15 minutes late, Spicer reads a prepared statement as fast as he can for 10 minutes and takes 5 minutes of questions before storming out, that's a good half hour briefing, right?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:25
|
|
|
Pellisworth posted:we probably have a Latin nerd in the thread but if not I'll ask in the christianity thread My wife apparently took several semesters of Latin and knows pretty much nothing about the language, it seems. Like the comedian who accidentally joined the Russian mafia, but without the great accompanying story. Yeah, this (inexplicably shirtless) guy.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:26
|
|
|
Dogwood Fleet posted:So if it starts at least 15 minutes late, Spicer reads a prepared statement as fast as he can for 10 minutes and takes 5 minutes of questions before storming out, that's a good half hour briefing, right? Well today he also has special guest star Pruitt to eat up a little more time explaining why climate change isn't real and withdrawing from the Paris talks is good. So yeah, Spicer probably only gonna do 5min of questions and dash.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:27
|
|
|
Pellisworth posted:we probably have a Latin nerd in the thread but if not I'll ask in the christianity thread  
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:30
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:Were you feeling too happy today? This is so hosed up. Story time: When I was in high school I was super involved in my church and every summer we'd go on mission trips. Some times we went and helped build new churches, or go to some city and volunteer in food banks/soup kitchens for a week. They were good trips and the stuff in the city was pretty much what you'd expect but nothing, absolutely nothing compared to our trip to Welch, WV, population ~2,500. For me at least, as someone who grew up out in the suburbs it was really the only time I've ever seen true rural poverty. Here's where Welch is:  It's in the mountains, only a little bit away from the KY and VA border. The idea was we'd be helping out with some stuff in the area, nothing big. I worked with a group who was going to be helping clean out someone's house. I didn't think much of it until we got to the house and it was just  . The family of 3 in the house were living on, I believe something like $500 a month and another baby was on the way. The house was in absolutely disrepair, to the point we were worried for everyone's safety, but we weren't authorized to do any major re-construction. The house at bare minimum needed a new roof, a thorough mold removal, new flooring (there were numerous holes in the floor) not to mention lots of work on the internals. I'm not even sure if the house had running water. It was extremely upsetting to me to see people living in America in these sorts of conditions, nobody should live like that, much less people in the supposed greatest country in the world. The mold in the house was so bad the church we were working with would not let us in to do the work unless we agreed to wear respirators for our safety. And yet there were people living in there.The folks living in that town really didn't have much hope for the future, the only real industry in town was working at the Wal-Mart about an hour away, working in the elementary school, or working at the church. Rural poverty is a really big deal and it's pretty drat depressing. We should be doing more to help people, but I have no idea what the solution is. Coal mining isn't coming back and you can't turn all of Appalachia into tourist locations. Anyway, I'll stop realposting now and go back to making jokes and being white noise. axeil fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Jun 2, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:31
|
|
|
tetrapyloctomy posted:I would like to see this in Latin on the Trump family's coat of arms. Be a hell of a t-shirt. Ignoramus mutum et causis
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:31
|
|
|
tetrapyloctomy posted:Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. Yeah, I expect Brennan has specifically had a lot of his people doing this as well. My theory is that he's been pulling most of the strings on the leaks so far. Say what you will about Brennan - the man's a snake, but I'm glad he's on the anti-Trump side.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:32
|
|
|
botany posted:What does "a better agreement" even mean By "better agreement" I mean a much stricter and binding agreement that severely regulates carbon emissions and other poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:32
|
|
|
Zil posted:Problem is, if the US went that route we would just be increasing the Aryan Brotherhoods membership for them. In nearly all prisons nation wide and I can see them loving having someone locked up for hate speech join them. Better, send them to special reeducation centers in alaska.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:33
|
|
|
Rigel posted:Again, I did not say this was a neutral or R+1 district, so no, obviously incumbency is not worth 20 points if Price, a long-time incumbent, wins by 20 back in years when the public doesn't hate the GOP. Its more like 10 points, maybe stretching to 15. Even accepting your 10pt incumbency adjustment (which is different than throwing out his wins, mind), a narrow Ossof loss in June 2017 doesn't mean there's probably no wave in November 2017.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:36
|
|
|
Crowsbeak posted:Better, send them to special reeducation centers in alaska. Alaska doesn't need more racist whites though. At this rate, they'll team up with Zhirinovsky and the LDPR and give the state back to Russia. (not that that would be an ENTIRELY bad thing, but they don't need any more oil)
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:37
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:Were you feeling too happy today? Goddam open the article right away with puppy death first thing
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:37
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:Even accepting your 10pt incumbency adjustment (which is different than throwing out his wins, mind), a narrow Ossof loss in June 2017 doesn't mean there's probably no wave in November 2017. It means the wave is weaker than we hope - but the EXTREME amount of attention the race is getting means that area Republicans understand that the race is important. I'd think a 2018 wave would be a few points higher than whatever Ossof's percentage is.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:38
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 11:07 |
|
|
Spicer press briefing stream has started
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 18:39
|
|