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Owlofcreamcheese posted:This seems exactly right, but many in this thread seem convinced he has a huge army of cultlike minions because once on sabrina the teenage witch and was a guest star of WWE. Like he was a D list celebrity that was C list for a short period. I am absolutely sure some people are massive fans that would do anything he said, but this thread seems to vastly overestimate how many people would take or leave him and follow him only exactly as far as he says the exact stuff they already thought. Trump has never been the problem, to me. The problem is what Trump represents, which is that the right wing political machine is so vast and so effective that any idiot can win on their ticket. It doesn't bode well.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:12
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SirPablo posted:Someone took this threads idea and ran with it. As much as I like it, this just reminds me that Twitter can't go away fast enough. We shouldn't have a President that can just fart out something in under 135 characters without thinking.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:12
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It's not Trump per se that people are embracing, it's what they think Trump represents: rejecting elites, upsetting the system, putting minorities and freeloaders in their place. Some, if they think further, will conclude that then they (suburban middle class whites, some rural voters not in extreme poverty) will profit, either literally or figuratively. There is an entire apparatus devoted to priming Trump supporters to reject everything damaging to Trump in the press, including Trump himself. Some people will be demotivated to support him, but he definitely has a core that, even if they may not like Trump himself, like what they believe, and are sold, he represents. Your perception of him as an outsider reality TV star is correct. It is also something many of his supporters embrace.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:15
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Magic Hate Ball posted:What purpose would this even serve? Eh, it's Trump. Some AT tower somewhere probably delayed him five minutes and he's held a petty grudge ever since. The sad part? Everyone can believe this because that is Trump.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:15
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SocketWrench posted:I can believe it. it's stupid, childish and petty. That's Donald Trump From his Trashy T to his tiny little p.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:17
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BardoTheConsumer posted:Trump has never been the problem, to me. The problem is what Trump represents, which is that the right wing political machine is so vast and so effective that any idiot can win on their ticket. It doesn't bode well. Yeah it's this. The right wing are not trump fanatics, they are fanatics period. Any republican swapped with trump would still have a floor of 35%. See some of the quotes in support of Gianforte after he assaulted a reporter.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:20
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SocketWrench posted:Eh, it's Trump. Some AT tower somewhere probably delayed him five minutes and he's held a petty grudge ever since. Daily Mail posted:Donald Trump files $100million lawsuit claiming air traffic controllers are 'maliciously' redirecting flights over his ritzy Mar-a-Lago club just to make him mad http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2907037/Trump-sues-100M-flights-ritzy-Florida-club.html
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Jun 4, 2017 23:21
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Young Freud posted:As much as I like it, this just reminds me that Twitter can't go away fast enough. We shouldn't have a President that can just fart out something in under 135 characters without thinking. That stems from the user not so much the medium. Obama made it work without coming off like a loving child because he is intelligent.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:30
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Jealous Cow posted:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2907037/Trump-sues-100M-flights-ritzy-Florida-club.html He really is a Spite Elemental. This man(?) has no subtlety. I mean I shouldn't be surprised by now buuuuuut
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Jun 4, 2017 23:31
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Jealous Cow posted:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2907037/Trump-sues-100M-flights-ritzy-Florida-club.html Lmao. Of loving course.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:32
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Jealous Cow posted:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2907037/Trump-sues-100M-flights-ritzy-Florida-club.html There it is
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Jun 4, 2017 23:37
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Elotana posted:So, once the Senate realizes that the AHCA is rat poison, are they stuck? Can the House submit a second reconciliation bill that's just some quick and dirty tax cuts (no ambitious reforms or BAT)?
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Jun 4, 2017 23:40
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A couple pages back:pumpinglemma posted:(The polls are literally showing an eleven point spread with no real consensus, and that's just the popular vote - there's no effective polling on a constituency scale.) Why is polling in the UK so goddamn bad?
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Jun 4, 2017 23:40
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Fuschia tude posted:A couple pages back: Too many pub crawls have resulted in a population that can't be relied upon to answer a question based on their feelings. (joke)
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Jun 4, 2017 23:42
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More in the ongoing saga of Steve King is a reprehensible waste: https://twitter.com/SteveKingIA/sta...%3Dde508f9ef8a5 I wanted #KimWeaver IN the race-not out. Democrats drove her out of the race-not R's. Death threats likely didn't happen but a fabrication. - @SteveKingIA
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Jun 4, 2017 23:46
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mmm mmm that is some good ratio.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:47
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The Senate isn't stuck with that bill at all, they can basically do a select all, delete and just rewrite the thing. Which is what they are doing.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:53
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ShutteredIn posted:The Senate isn't stuck with that bill at all, they can basically do a select all, delete and just rewrite the thing. Which is what they are doing. They're trying to, but they not only have to write a bill that pleases all senate Republicans (a very difficult thing to do), that bill goes back to the House where it has to please the Freedom Caucus. It was better when the House couldn't even pass anything, but they're hardly in the clear right now. The two sides of the Republican party on health care have opposite goals.
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Jun 4, 2017 23:55
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Trump appeared on Sabrina the Teenage Witch?
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Jun 5, 2017 00:03
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lol Trump was indeed playing golf today, with Peyton Manning.
Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Jun 5, 2017 |
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Jun 5, 2017 00:13
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ShutteredIn posted:The Senate isn't stuck with that bill at all, they can basically do a select all, delete and just rewrite the thing. Which is what they are doing. To expand on this, if each chamber passes different version of the same bill, it gets kicked to a conference committee to hash out the differences. The result is the conference report which serves as a final amendment to the bill and triggers final debate and voting.
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Jun 5, 2017 00:14
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If my old conservative Southern lawyer grandpa taught me ANYTHING with his constant retelling of the time he did a screen test with Ronald Reagan, and how much play it got, it is that people are endlessly delighted to hear the name of a famous person in a story, especially if it touches their own lives slightly. He built whole segments of his law career off of that story. Whole conversations can be had about that time someone just WALKED BY a famous person. At his goddamn funeral, where people should have discussed any of his actual achievements, not only did the drat Reagan story come up, but then it was segued into 'his grand-daughter who now works in entertainment in NYC!' and people crowded around me to ask me about the city. I had to escape to the bathroom to stop being asked to tell NY stories. Not even anything cool, just stories about bums masturbating!! You'd think I'd invented sliced bread. Because imagined fame is always more interesting than the dreary reality you're just another person like everybody else. StrangersInTheNight fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Jun 5, 2017 |
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Jun 5, 2017 00:15
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:lol Trump was indeed playing gold today, with Peyton Manning.  Never meet your heroes, kids
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Jun 5, 2017 00:15
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the_donald isn't even trying to hide their racist bigotry now. This is on the front page
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Jun 5, 2017 00:16
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When did they ever
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Jun 5, 2017 00:21
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D-Pad posted:This sounds right, and it isn't that I don't believe it, but do you have some kind of link or source to back this up? I need to show this to a few of my friends. Times they are a'changing. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/  Specifically looking at this image. The white vote is shrinking by roughly two percent every four years as a proportion of the American population. This is due to a number of factors. 1. What's left of the old generations are dying. Silent, greatest and boomers are all aging out. White America is old. So are republicans. Young people are also fleeing rural places because there is no future there and the average age of these rural areas is rapidly rising which tend to vote weak republican. The heroin epidemic is also hitting them particularly hard. The only solidly republican areas tend to be suburbs. 2. Hispanic Americans are becoming more numerous. Along with Asian Americans. Both tend to vote slightly in favor of democrats. Hispanics vote for them at a rate of about 30-45% (they're pretty varied) with Asians being all over the place too, though Muslims vote strong democrat as well. 3. Black Americans have stayed at about 12% s a proportion of the electorate for the last sixteen years. When they vote they vote strong democrat. Around 90/10 with some minor variance. Most of the problems with democrats is getting them to turn out in the first place and also the districts they're in are heavily gerrymandered. See North Carolina's recent supreme court decision for proof of this. White America is shrinking and because the republicans take almost all of their voters from them means that they suffer twice as hard because they've made little effective outreach to African Americans, Hispanics or Asians. Having worked on a republican campaign (it's South Carolina, I get to choose what kind of republican I vote for because it's a one party state) I can tell you from experience that the likely republican voters are old as poo poo. Most in their fifties and above. Many in their seventies and eightes with nineties being uncommon and hundreds rare, but not as rare as anyone in their thirties. Despite hours and hours of phone banking and knocking on doors I saw exactly one likely primary voter who was in his thirties. He was a police officer. I met more people in their hundreds than anyone under the age of forty, and never, not once anyone under the age of forty-five. Not a single time. The guy in his thirties was like finding a four leaf clover or a unicorn. What I'm getting at is that the shrinking white vote hits republicans doubly hard and on top of that is that their voters are old as hell. They're not replacing their voters. Instead they've doubled down on motivating them to turn out and each time they do it's becoming more and more frantic. They're close to no longer being able to win the presidency due to the numbers not being there and not because their opposition is at all effective. It's the numbers. So when the white vote shrinks by a percentage point you can safely double the effect it'll have to the republican party because they draw nearly all of their members from that particular pool. Also if you haven't noticed the party is getting crazier as they get more desperate. Thankfully not all of them, but the rhetoric of violence has flooded the arch right wingers for decades. For a long time it's because US vs The Other and it's rendering them unable to attract new non-white voters because The Other sure looks pretty brown to the crazies. Unless the republicans radically course correct by 2020 they're going to be down another 4% of their votes because they'll call for white voters and there simply won't be enough of them there. Enough to win senator seats and house seats and governerships and state senate and house to be sure, but not as definitively as they did before and every year they refuse to realign is another 1% less votes they won't have. We're due for a political realignment. It's going to happen. The republican party is in win at any cost mode and when they stop winning they'll stop being an effective party. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Jun 5, 2017 |
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Jun 5, 2017 00:22
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Eltoasto posted:
peyton manning destroyed a woman's career after he sexually harassed her. peas in a pod.
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Jun 5, 2017 00:25
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Yeah I hate to spoil it but there are very few professional athletes worth idolizing. The white ones from well known southern families especially.
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Jun 5, 2017 00:28
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That's ok Andrew Luck is much better, he has a book club and really just wants to be an engineer.
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Jun 5, 2017 00:29
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Groovelord Neato posted:peyton manning destroyed a woman's career after he sexually harassed her. Dropping your balls on somebody's face is probably a bit more than sexual harassment.
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Jun 5, 2017 00:31
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That Pew graph says the 2016 numbers were projected. Did they turn out to be accurate?
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Jun 5, 2017 00:38
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Mantis42 posted:That Pew graph says the 2016 numbers were projected. Did they turn out to be accurate? It's eligible voters, not registered/likely/actual voters, so the population trends are almost certainly steady- the only thing I could think of affecting that would be the net emigration of latinos, but that's probably more non-citizens than eligible voters. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/ Here, combo of the bad news and the good news all on one page- black turnout dropped by a ton, but white percentage of the eligible voting population continued to fall as well. BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Jun 5, 2017 |
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Jun 5, 2017 00:40
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Cam Newton is a pretty ok dude
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Jun 5, 2017 00:42
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Eltoasto posted:
What if my hero is Hitler? Checkmate libtards. That said Hitler probably smelled bad.
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Jun 5, 2017 00:43
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Bottom Liner posted:the_donald isn't even trying to hide their racist bigotry now. This is on the front page idgi
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Jun 5, 2017 00:45
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Trump appeared on Sabrina the Teenage Witch? also suddenly susan
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Jun 5, 2017 00:45
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"police have to wear army gear around black people because they are more dangerous, in white neighborhoods the cops can be good and happy because the people are better. We should bring segregation back because it'll solve problems."
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Jun 5, 2017 00:46
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Fuschia tude posted:A couple pages back: - Dealing with six major parties is harder than dealing with two. - Constituencies are so small that you can't reliably poll them, so you're mostly stuck with polling popular vote and applying "uniform swing" or some other obviously lovely model to try and guess how many seats each party will have. - No-one knows how to model turnout, especially youth turnout. (Labour is on course to get literally three times as much of the young vote as the Tories this time round.) That said, this election things are particularly bad - normally polls can at least agree on the popular vote to within a few points. My guess is that everyone ripped up their models post-Brexit and started using wildly different ones.
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Jun 5, 2017 00:49
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Brexit polls were within the margin of error though?
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Jun 5, 2017 00:51
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JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:Yeah I hate to spoil it but there are very few professional athletes worth idolizing. 
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