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Firebatgyro posted:Whenever I hear Marshall commentating a match i think wow this guy has no idea how to play limited at all. And then I watched him play and yeah, he has no idea how to play limited at all. 
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Jun 7, 2017 16:14
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I once beat Marshall in a limited event. He was manascrewed and I felt really bad, but he was nice about it.
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Jun 7, 2017 16:22
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Marshall seems like a good guy and I enjoy his commentary. The two they had hosing the GP in Amsterdam last weekend though were really entertaining. Marshall gets points for last week when coming back from a break and seeing that the match on screen was going to be marvel said "nah let's get that out of here" and switched to a different table.
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Jun 7, 2017 16:23
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ThePeavstenator posted:The title of the article says it all, "It’s a Small-Sample Analysis". The math all works out, but look at the BG numbers. The deck's matchup percentages are all above 50 except for Zombies, and Zombies gets rolled by every other deck. Basically I don't buy BG having those matchups, and I think the problem stems from looking at the day 2 results of 7-2 players in 2 GPs. That's not a very large of a sample size, and you can't really justify the assumption that both players in each matchup are equally skilled, which this model relies on. if the two events were comparable in size, they should be around 400 decks and 1500 matches.
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Jun 7, 2017 16:40
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YggdrasilTM posted:if the two events were comparable in size, they should be around 400 decks and 1500 matches. No, there's going to be about 100 players making day 2 with 7-2 or better records. Amsterdam had a little less than 1200 and Santiago had little over 700 for turnout. There would be about 110 and 65 players respectively with 7-2 or better at each tournament after 9 rounds. Lets be really generous and say that there were 120 and 80 7-2s or better and none of them dropped on day 2. That's still only 360 matches from Amsterdam and 240 from Santiago. 600 matches is not nearly enough when your sample isn't being chosen randomly because again, this model really depends on the players themselves not being variables. For the brief amount of time that mtggolfish published matchup data they were analyzing 20-30 thousand matches on MTGO for data.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:03
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ThePeavstenator posted:No, there's going to be about 100 players making day 2 with 7-2 or better records. Amsterdam had a little less than 1200 and Santiago had little over 700 for turnout. There would be about 110 and 65 players respectively with 7-2 or better at each tournament after 9 rounds. Lets be really generous and say that there were 120 and 80 7-2s or better and none of them dropped on day 2. That's still only 360 matches from Amsterdam and 240 from Santiago. 600 matches is not nearly enough when your sample isn't being chosen randomly because again, this model really depends on the players themselves not being variables. ??? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmxC0W9vACy3J248i-g8CHCKfnS5b2WkIeO7lbocc8Y/edit#gid=1715095611 "Total # of decks 225 Total # of matches 621" Maybe this one was about ALL the decks on day 2? YggdrasilTM fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Jun 7, 2017 |
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Jun 7, 2017 17:10
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Seems Cryptic (City of Heroes) are making a mormorpagah based on Magic. Not actually found the source, just a reference to it on Gamasutra, but here: Edit: better website: http://www.pcgamer.com/magic-the-gathering-is-getting-the-aaa-rpg-treatment/
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Jun 7, 2017 17:19
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YggdrasilTM posted:??? Didn't even see that, but yeah it looks like that's the entire day 2 meta, not just 7-2 or better. Also the Marvel decks in that data have really high winrates and the BG decks are much worse so I have no idea how Karsten factored those results into the rest of his data to arrive at the numbers he did. Also wasn't GP Amsterdam a bit of an outlier in terms of deck performances? It still doesn't change the fact that this method of surveying doesn't fit the model he's trying to use. If you just use matches from a random day 2 GP, all you're doing is showing what the best deck would have been to play at that specific GP. If you want to model an entire metagame you need a shitload of data so you can safely assume that players, sideboards, silver-bullet/fun-of card choices, etc are not variables.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:28
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BizarroAzrael posted:Seems Cryptic (City of Heroes) are making a mormorpagah based on Magic. Not actually found the source, just a reference to it on Gamasutra, but here: Neverwinter was all right. CoH was fun back in the day but the problem with these games are a) microtransactions and b) the grind if you don't pay. Also, I doubt it will be Shandalar.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:30
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Tainen posted:Marshall seems like a good guy and I enjoy his commentary. The two they had hosing the GP in Amsterdam last weekend though were really entertaining. Riley Knight is so good at commentary and really needs to be brought on to the main crew. Also he was a really fun streamer for the short time he did it.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:34
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ShaneB posted:Doesn't Marshall hang out in the 1900 club range pretty regularly? Limited and constructed ratings are pretty worthless, for lots of reasons. He's definitely a good drafter, I think he's less solid at how he plays his games than some of the other high level pros/content creators. BenS and Andrew Cuneo are the best drafter/player combinations I've seen, although magic is weird and sometimes formats have a huge impact on how well players do. Some formats are also much higher variance, I think the die roll is unusually impactful in this format due to cartouches and exert.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:36
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Firebatgyro posted:Whenever I hear Marshall commentating a match i think wow this guy has no idea how to play limited at all. And then I watched him play and yeah, he has no idea how to play limited at all. Marshall is really good at limited; you don't know what you're talking about. You don't get an 1800+ rating in Limited by having no idea how to play limited. Angry Grimace fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Jun 7, 2017 |
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Jun 7, 2017 17:43
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Marketing New Brain posted:Limited and constructed ratings are pretty worthless, for lots of reasons. He's definitely a good drafter, I think he's less solid at how he plays his games than some of the other high level pros/content creators. BenS and Andrew Cuneo are the best drafter/player combinations I've seen, although magic is weird and sometimes formats have a huge impact on how well players do. Of course he isn't pro level. He's still in the top tier of modo players, and most of those players are much better than a typical lgs player. My argument isn't that he's good as Cuneo and Ben S. It's that he's very very good.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:48
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He's p good but he has huge blind spots and can't play aggro to save his life.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:53
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BizarroAzrael posted:Seems Cryptic (City of Heroes) are making a mormorpagah based on Magic. Not actually found the source, just a reference to it on Gamasutra, but here: This is concerning.
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Jun 7, 2017 17:58
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ShaneB posted:Of course he isn't pro level. He's still in the top tier of modo players, and most of those players are much better than a typical lgs player. the 'top tier of modo players' are pro level. Cuneo was/is a modo grinder.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:14
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BizarroAzrael posted:Seems Cryptic (City of Heroes) are making a mormorpagah based on Magic. Not actually found the source, just a reference to it on Gamasutra, but here: I know I'm going to play this stupid game and spend money doing it and also ultimately regret it.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:16
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bigperm posted:I know I'm going to play this stupid game and spend money doing it and also ultimately regret it. This will be great if you can make Planeswalkers like you could make characters in City of Heroes. 98% of the fun in that was character creation.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:21
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Bets on the plot being better or worse than ~Gatewatch Saga~?
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Jun 7, 2017 18:24
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WOTC is like what, 15 years behind in trends? A mmo? Holy gently caress no.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:31
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Sickening posted:WOTC is like what, 15 years behind in trends? A mmo? Holy gently caress no. MODO is flaming piece of garbage; what do they have to lose (besides even more of their reputation)?
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Jun 7, 2017 18:32
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I fully expect this to look and play like 2005 WoW.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:37
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Mikujin posted:MODO is flaming piece of garbage; what do they have to lose (besides even more of their reputation)? actual money, like basically every MMO since WoW that has tried to copy WoW
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Jun 7, 2017 18:37
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ThePeavstenator posted:actual money, like basically every MMO since WoW that has tried to copy WoW I mean, it's Hasbro's money to lose.
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Jun 7, 2017 19:06
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If they tried to make Magic: Overwatch, they might have a shot
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Jun 7, 2017 19:10
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Has anyone ever taken on a Blizzard game and won? You'd think at this point developers would learn ask "is this game the same as something Blizzard has already done?" and if the answer is "yes" go make something else.
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Jun 7, 2017 19:13
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AceClown posted:Has anyone ever taken on a Blizzard game and won? You'd think at this point developers would learn ask "is this game the same as something Blizzard has already done?" and if the answer is "yes" go make something else. League of Legends?
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Jun 7, 2017 19:15
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TheKingofSprings posted:If they tried to make Magic: Overwatch, they might have a shot I'd love to play goblin pile-driver. Or rhox https://youtu.be/O4a5EJaaLBQ
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Jun 7, 2017 19:16
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Angry Grimace posted:I fully expect this to look and play like 2005 WoW. I'd play it then
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Jun 7, 2017 19:20
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instantrunoffvote posted:League of Legends? League of Legends hugely predates Heroes of the Storm. DotA was originally a custom map in Warcraft 3, if that's what you're referring to. Also interesting that DotA is ubiquitous enough for my autocorrect to capitalize the A but ubiquitous isn't recognized as a word.
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Jun 7, 2017 19:23
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I'd say they should make a dotalike but dota already got a character named Leshrac who casts Diabolic Edict....
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Jun 7, 2017 19:26
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PJOmega posted:Also interesting that DotA is ubiquitous enough for my autocorrect to capitalize the A but ubiquitous isn't recognized as a word. Guess it's not ubiquitous enough 
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Jun 7, 2017 19:29
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Tales of Woe posted:the 'top tier of modo players' are pro level. Cuneo was/is a modo grinder. Okay now that's just semantics on what defines a tier. The point stands.
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Jun 7, 2017 19:33
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MOBAs are almost as passé as MMORPGs now, battle royale games are the only current trend that you still have time to get in ahead of Blizzard
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Jun 7, 2017 19:37
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There's only one company who should be bringing out an MMO in 2017 and that's nintendo and they should loving bring out a pokemon MMO already
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Jun 7, 2017 20:08
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Cuneo was known before MODO existed btw Reid Duke and I think Brad Nelson first became known as MODO grinders though
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Jun 7, 2017 20:23
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If there's an MMO where combat with an enemy was playing a match of Magic the Gathering, and PvP took place in PvP zones where you challenged other players to ante MTG matches, and the correct strategy was to group up and chain challenge someone to PvP matches over and over with a swarm of cheap rear end monored decks until you managed to win more valuable cards than the cheap red cards you lost, they'd at least get a bunch of goons playing.
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Jun 7, 2017 20:35
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The best modern deck at the moment runs a lot of blue and has snapcasters. What a world we live in.
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Jun 7, 2017 20:36
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Hellsau posted:If there's an MMO where combat with an enemy was playing a match of Magic the Gathering, and PvP took place in PvP zones where you challenged other players to ante MTG matches, and the correct strategy was to group up and chain challenge someone to PvP matches over and over with a swarm of cheap rear end monored decks until you managed to win more valuable cards than the cheap red cards you lost, they'd at least get a bunch of goons playing. I'm in if we have a cool guild symbol.
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Jun 7, 2017 20:40
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I'd unironically like to planeswalk in a game and check out Dominaria, Ravnica, Lorwyn, etc. in glorious 3D. I don't have high hopes for it being a good game.
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Jun 7, 2017 20:47
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