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Sataere posted:Maybe I am misremembering, but didn't ground control show Gurley getting hit way earlier than everyone else? I unfortunately can't distinguish dudes that get hit early but break tackles from dudes who have decent blocking, but Gurley definitely goes down earlier than average. It's actually gotten worse. In 2015, he went down a lot for 2-3 yard losses (Gurley in red, Average in Blue)  In 2016, he was going down for loss about the same proportion of the time, but they were for even bigger losses.  That's a pretty strong indicator of bad blocking. A dude doesn't go down for a 5 yard loss like that unless something really dumb went wrong. However, there's another problem. His rookie year, Gurley was one of the best in the league at breaking long runs.  2016, not so much  That combination is why his yards per carry sucked so much this year. But he still didn't look so hot even in my Game Surprisal measure, which a) treats all runs under 2 yards as equally bad (so he doesn't get dinged for the extra huge losses), and b) adjusts the value of long runs to be proportional to how probable they are to occur, not how far they go exactly (so he also is dinged less for the lack of home runs). Despite those adjustments, most of his games were below average from an efficiency standpoint:  (2015 are the red dots, 2016 are the diamonds, the red line is the combined moving average of both years, the blue line is league average. Games below the blue line are below average). Like I said - it doesn't look great. None of this is predictive of fantasy success, but it is enough to make me nervous of a valuable pick. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that volume is a) more stable from year to year (it's not implausible that Gurley could be good all of a sudden) and b) more important for fantasy. And his active run share was absurd:  He's just dominating carries. I poked around for a solid 5 minutes and the only comparable things I can find are Adrian Peterson 2013 and Alfred Morris 2012. Volume makes him useful, efficiency can change on a dime, and I have no idea how much Gurley is at fault for the down year. But it definitely was not a pretty year.
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Jun 8, 2017 02:50
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Goddamnit FP I love you but also hate you because you won the first year of our dynasty league. It's very conflicting.
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Jun 8, 2017 04:29
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gently caress yes gimme those advanced stats. Also my "eye testing" of Gurley was limited to maybe a game and a half*, but I do remember commenting to my father "Imagine if he was on a good team." *Also I don't know poo poo all about football, really.
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Jun 8, 2017 06:05
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MrSargent posted:Goddamnit FP I love you but also hate you because you won the first year of our dynasty league. It's OK, I routinely get my rear end kicked in the other 2 goon dynasty leagues. Turns out I'm better at drafting and working the WW than I am at trading, but I can't help myself. The year before Megatron retired I gave Gordon, Parker, and a rookie 2nd for him. 
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Jun 8, 2017 13:16
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Forever_Peace posted:It's OK, I routinely get my rear end kicked in the other 2 goon dynasty leagues. Turns out I'm better at drafting and working the WW than I am at trading, but I can't help myself. Please be Josh and not Melvin 
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Jun 8, 2017 14:32
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RVProfootballer posted:Please be Josh and not Melvin Melvin.
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Jun 8, 2017 15:00
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Only had one guy I wanted to cut in dynasty but had enough picks in the first three rounds (1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 3.7) that I would have to cut two. Someone put Willie Snead on the block because they don't understand what rebuilding actually is and I offered 3.7/3.2, thinking he'd laugh the offer off. He countered 3.1/3.2. I would've snap accepted but I was a little busy at work so I waited 5 minutes and he threw in 5.1. I told him I didn't want to stay awake past the third round and offered to swap my 2.1 for 1.12 instead (we are probably both targeting RBs there. To my disbelief he accepted. So I gave 2.1, 3.1 and 3.2 to get Willie Snead and 1.12. All damned day.
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Jun 8, 2017 15:15
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:Only had one guy I wanted to cut in dynasty but had enough picks in the first three rounds (1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 3.7) that I would have to cut two. Someone put Willie Snead on the block because they don't understand what rebuilding actually is and I offered 3.7/3.2, thinking he'd laugh the offer off. He countered 3.1/3.2. I would've snap accepted but I was a little busy at work so I waited 5 minutes and he threw in 5.1. I told him I didn't want to stay awake past the third round and offered to swap my 2.1 for 1.12 instead (we are probably both targeting RBs there. To my disbelief he accepted. So I gave 2.1, 3.1 and 3.2 to get Willie Snead and 1.12. All damned day. Haha nice
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Jun 8, 2017 15:20
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Teemu Pokemon posted:I'm going to try to not poo poo this thread up with don't draft Vikings but I'm not gonna lie, I'm pretty high on Stefon Diggs.
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Jun 8, 2017 16:30
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Hi sweethearts
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Jun 8, 2017 20:03
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Sataere posted:I'm not gonna lie, I'm pretty high on Stefon Diggs. I hope it's as a matchup-based WR3 in a 3WR+Flex league because that's all that offense can support through the air. Bad line, bad offensive coaching staff until proven otherwise, bad quarterback. Murray is probably the only guy in that offense worth starting weekly and I wouldn't be surprised if that were based mainly on reps and lack of competition unless this is the year that noted SPARQ darling Jerrick McKinnon can be good enough at football that he can avoid being benched in favor of Matt fuckin Asiata Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Jun 8, 2017 |
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Jun 8, 2017 21:23
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Sataere posted:I'm not gonna lie, I'm pretty high Read it like this. Don't want to correct myself.
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Jun 8, 2017 21:42
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Teemu Pokemon posted:I hope it's as a matchup-based WR3 in a 3WR+Flex league because that's all that offense can support through the air. I didn't say I could justify the thought. But I'm not talking a guy with my first four picks. I think he's a guy who can slip to round six or seven and maybe be a high end WR2 by seasons end. I just think he has a high floor/high ceiling for a mid round pick, because my gut thinks he's going to seriously outperform his ADP.
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Jun 8, 2017 22:03
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newsworthy: #Chiefs ST Coordinator Dave Toub says Tyreek Hill will not be on kick ret this season, will stay on punt ret. DAT will be the "next man up."
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Jun 8, 2017 22:11
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Sataere posted:I didn't say I could justify the thought. But I'm not talking a guy with my first four picks. I think he's a guy who can slip to round six or seven and maybe be a high end WR2 by seasons end. I would be seriously shocked if Diggs is a top-25 WR by season's end, let alone top-18. My money is on ~WR30 give or take 2 or 3 spots, but I think most of that production will come in a handful of games Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Jun 8, 2017 |
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Jun 8, 2017 22:17
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Sataere posted:I didn't say I could justify the thought. But I'm not talking a guy with my first four picks. I think he's a guy who can slip to round six or seven and maybe be a high end WR2 by seasons end. His pace over 13 games would've put him at 100-1100-3 in 16. That's with Thielen soaking up 70-950-5. I'd bet on Diggs improving more than I'd bet on Thielen repeating those numbers. Vikings o-line also was injured, not bad for no reason. Starting left tackle, right guard, and top two right tackles went down early in the year. There's little reason to expect the line to be as bad next year, and little reason to think Diggs can't be a solid WR2. You don't need to rely on your gut or listen to Teemu 
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Jun 9, 2017 00:02
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Bad line, bad offensive coaching staff until proven otherwise, bad quarterback. Murray is probably the only guy in that offense worth starting weekly and I wouldn't be surprised if that were based mainly on reps and lack of competition unless this is the year that noted SPARQ darling Jerrick McKinnon can be good enough at football that he can avoid being benched in favor of Matt fuckin Asiata Do you just really hate Dalvin Cook or something? E: Not that I'm saying he'll be awesome or anything, just seems weird not to mention him at all Scruffy the janitor fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Jun 9, 2017 |
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Jun 9, 2017 00:04
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Zimmer is very much a *hates rookies* coach and they just invested like 9 mil guaranteed in Murray to replace Peterson so I doubt he ends up being more than a handcuff/dynasty stash, especially when the Vikings offense is doo. I didn't mention him because he's almost assured to be a non-factor in redraft unless Murray gets hurt.
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Jun 9, 2017 01:38
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Yeah, only question is how long Murray takes to get fully healthy this off season, and whether he has any setbacks.
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Jun 9, 2017 02:51
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RVProfootballer posted:Vikings o-line also was injured, not bad for no reason. Starting left tackle, right guard, and top two right tackles went down early in the year. Matt Kalil and Andre Smith are Not Very Good and Phil Loadholdt is okay (but not really in pass protection because he has the footwork of Frankenstein's monster) so I doubt their health really makes that line any better What might've made that line better would've been using a 1st round pick on a lineman instead of trading it for Sam fuckin Bradford Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Jun 9, 2017 |
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Jun 9, 2017 04:25
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Jordan Reed last three years Games Missed: 11 Double Digit games: 10 Games with 5 points or fewer: 15 2016 ADP: 4.04 2017 ADP: 4.08 He has 7 concussions dating back to college Just draft Tim Tebow if you want to waste your 4th rounder so bad drat 26 of 48 games he got you five points or fewer and 10 games he got you 10 or more lmao just lmao
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Jun 9, 2017 06:40
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https://twitter.com/ChrisRaybon/status/867019791768272897 https://twitter.com/ChrisRaybon/status/867030117016580097 https://twitter.com/ChrisRaybon/status/867030594689040385 If Jordan Reed is going to sacrifice his life playing this dumb sport, I must respect that and make his sacrifice worth it by drafting him everywhere. It's just too tempting to gamble on him, target TE2 streamers mid-season for backup help, and end the season with strong production from my TE spot.
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Jun 9, 2017 06:57
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"I'm okay with and I understand that my fourth round pick will miss half the games" Also Pryor, Terrelle and Doctson, Joshua might cost him a target or 4 a game Edit: a word Spoeank fucked around with this message at 07:02 on Jun 9, 2017 |
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Jun 9, 2017 07:00
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Matt Kalil and Andre Smith are Not Very Good and Phil Loadholdt is okay (but not really in pass protection because he has the footwork of Frankenstein's monster) so I doubt their health really makes that line any better I think this post operates under the assumption that bad is as bad as it gets. Those guys were bad, but their back ups were like staring into the abyss and only being able to see your mother being sodomized by Chthulu.
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Jun 9, 2017 07:01
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oh raybon is a dfs guy Do Not Listen to DFS Guys During Draft Season
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Jun 9, 2017 07:08
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last two seasons week by week TE8 TE9 TE7 TE18 DNP DNP TE1 TE12 TE3 TE17 TE10 TE20 TE1 TE1 TE1 TE23 TE13 TE17 TE16 TE1 TE16 DNP DNP TE4 TE23 TE11 TE1 DNP TE46 TE54 DNP TE6 That three straight TE1 hot stretch really tricks people Guys like Raybon and Smizzle are DFS guys and literally only look at weekly upside because that's the name of the DFS game. Season long is a totally different analysis during draft season and I am going to lose my mind screaming that into the ether Spoeank fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Jun 9, 2017 |
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Jun 9, 2017 07:21
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Weekly upside matters in a season determined by weekly matchups.
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Jun 9, 2017 07:43
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is gronk any better? People draft him in the first round
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Jun 9, 2017 07:43
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Tiptoes posted:Weekly upside matters in a season determined by weekly matchups. so does weekly downside when you're taking a player in the first four rounds and you have to stomach that you've wasted that pick for 50% or more of the year. Leperflesh posted:is gronk any better? People draft him in the first round Don't get me started on Gronk but people think Reed is a reasonable choice
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Jun 9, 2017 07:48
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Y'all are silly, just wait til the 12th round and grab Ertz, it's his year.
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Jun 9, 2017 07:54
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Spoeank posted:so does weekly downside when you're taking a player in the first four rounds and you have to stomach that you've wasted that pick for 50% or more of the year. VietCampo posted:Y'all are silly, just wait til the 12th round and grab Ertz, it's his year. 
Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 08:08 on Jun 9, 2017 |
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Jun 9, 2017 08:06
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Let's play a quick trivia game that means nothing but could mean a lot depending on where you plan on drafting a TE: Player A: 16 games, 132 targets, 83 catches, 840 yards, 7 touchdowns, overall TE3 per Pro Football Focus. Player B: 12 games, 89 targets, 66 catches, 686 yards, 6 touchdowns, overall TE9 per Pro Football Focus. Player A's ADP: 8.12 Player B's ADP: 4.08 Seems pretty obvious which one you'd rather have at their draft value, no? Player A: Kyle Rudolph Player B: Jordan Reed Drafting TEs on name recognition alone is a dangerous game y'all.
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Jun 9, 2017 09:30
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Leperflesh posted:is gronk any better? People draft him in the first round No, I think if you looked at any tight end, they'd have that kind of weekly variance. To be fair, prime Gronk probably does look better, as would prime Graham. Ertz during his half seasons where he's great. But probably no one else. Benne posted:Let's play a quick trivia game that means nothing but could mean a lot depending on where you plan on drafting a TE: Drafting bad TEs expecting them to repeat career years is a dangerous game.
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Jun 9, 2017 14:33
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Spoeank posted:Jordan Reed last three years Reed absolutely 100% was a big part of me winning my league 2 years ago. Which of course lead to me overvaluing him last year, so hopefully this year I can be more realistic 
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Jun 9, 2017 14:51
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Every year someone in my league drafts J. Reed and every year I listen to them complain for several weeks about how their TE stud that's totally worth a higher than avg draft pick is riding pine and they can't drop him because he's just sooooo good for the those 3-4 weeks he's missing games.
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Jun 9, 2017 15:22
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Recurrent concussions are one of the few injuries that will prompt me to avoid a guy at even a "fair" ADP given their expected value. The only time I have ever had shares of Reed in any league ever is when I could pick him up for free off the waiver wire.
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Jun 9, 2017 15:33
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Sataere posted:I think this post operates under the assumption that bad is as bad as it gets. Those guys were bad, but their back ups were like staring into the abyss and only being able to see your mother being sodomized by Chthulu. As a Vikings fan I can tell you with absolute certainty that things can always, and will more likely than not, be worse
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Jun 9, 2017 17:48
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I've been reading a lot of analysis on how the loss of Maclin affects Tyreek Hill and I have come to the conclusion that Kelce is my #1 TE.
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Jun 9, 2017 17:51
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Kelce is gonna be the #1 TE yep
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Jun 9, 2017 17:55
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woe be to us when 80/1000/5 is TE1 again
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Jun 9, 2017 18:00
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