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Rigel posted:He's probably up by 4 or 5 points. The outliers have him up 7 on the high side and about even on the low side. early voting is already happening, so there's a considerable amount of data on turnout. it is insanely high for a special election.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:08
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The BCBS health insurance changes also assume that Obamacare still exists. The actual cost to people will be significantly higher under the AHCA.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:09
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evilweasel posted:early voting is already happening, so there's a considerable amount of data on turnout. it is insanely high for a special election. That sounds like bad news for the GOP.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:09
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Pollyanna posted:That was like two months ago Almost 4. Jesus. HOW HAS TIME SLOWED THIS MUCH
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Jun 15, 2017 15:09
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No Butt Stuff posted:Almost 4. 24 hour news cycle, endless shriek of horror/national nervous breakdown.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:11
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No Butt Stuff posted:Almost 4. Lmao i feel like wevr had more scandals in five months than most presidents have in 8 goddamn years
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Jun 15, 2017 15:11
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OctaMurk posted:Lmao i feel like wevr had more scandals in five months than most presidents have in 8 goddamn years Probably goes back to reagan admin's constant corruption charges/convictions tbh
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Jun 15, 2017 15:13
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hanales posted:Lol. Someone buy him an account here. He would have a ball posting in the Suck Zone I suspect!
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Jun 15, 2017 15:16
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evilweasel posted:early voting is already happening, so there's a considerable amount of data on turnout. it is insanely high for a special election.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:19
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OctaMurk posted:Lmao i feel like wevr had more scandals in five months than most presidents have in 8 goddamn years Obama had Benghazi, Fast and Furious, Obamacare website, Umbrellagate, Eric Holder held in contempt of Congress, Spying on journalists, the IRS scandal, Hillary Clinton’s secret email server, the Pigford scandal, NSA spying scandal, the GSA scandal, the VA death-list scandal, Solyndra, and the Secret Service prostitution scandal all within 8 months.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:19
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Night10194 posted:But that's the thing. This isn't a change at all. This is the exact poo poo they've been saying for decades now. Granted, last time it blew up so did the Oklahoma City building. In society Narrativists are like radioactive isotopes. The higher-compaction they are, the more radioactive they are. There is always some level of background radioation and isotopes present and our (civil society in this metaphor) bodies can handle this just fine. Even a few very very radioative isotopes are harmless as long as they are isolated and very very small. Within the present situation the number of highly-radioactive isotpes in our environment is increasingly rapidly and there is now enough radiation to threaten the health of civil society. So while the particulars right wing Narrativists are saying are not necessarily new, the amount of them that are saying it and the amount of power they have over civil society at present is what makes the situation very dangerous. I understand where your thinking is going here, but I want to stress that understanding how Narrativism will impact society is premised on two primary factors: 1.) How many high-compaction Narrativists are there per capita in the general population, and 2.) how much influence do those high-compaction Narrativists wield over the levers of power in society. Right now the answer to those two questions are )in order) 1.)"Way too many for comfort" and 2.)"They control virtually all the important levers at the moment". That is why I ammaking such a big deal of this event. Its the timing, its too perfect for the psychological needs of high-compaction Narrativists at the oment. From the perspective of a Trump supporting Narrativist you have two options right now. Either A.) Live in reality where your glorious leader is a conman who is destroying your country and humiliating you by proxy or B.) Live in a fantasy where you are a noble warrior-monk struggling against a sub-human/vile Enemy that must be opposed at all costs and is spreading lies about the only true champion capable of stopping them. From those two options, which do you think the average right wing Narrativist is going to select? Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Jun 15, 2017 |
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Jun 15, 2017 15:20
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No Butt Stuff posted:Almost 4. What no way? I swore that was like a year ago.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:20
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Obama had Benghazi, Fast and Furious, Obamacare website, Umbrellagate, Eric Holder held in contempt of Congress, Spying on journalists, the IRS scandal, Hillary Clinton’s secret email server, the Pigford scandal, NSA spying scandal, the GSA scandal, the VA death-list scandal, Solyndra, and the Secret Service prostitution scandal all within 8 months. Some pretty lame "scandals" in that list. "The IRS Scandal" we really gonna count right wing media losing their poo poo over civil servants doing their job as a scandal just because they say it is?
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Jun 15, 2017 15:23
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Wasn't the IRS explicitly targeting right wing organizations? Thats pretty bad IMO.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:24
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No Butt Stuff posted:Almost 4. They say that when you know you are going to die, time decompresses and seconds seems like hours. Javes posted:Wasn't the IRS explicitly targeting right wing organizations? Thats pretty bad IMO. Nope, they were targeting groups flouting the law. That most, but not all of them, were right wing was not their fault.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:24
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Javes posted:Wasn't the IRS explicitly targeting right wing organizations? Thats pretty bad IMO. They were targeting groups dumb enough file as a "Social Welfare Organization", but check a box stating that politics and campaigning where their primary activity. Social Welfare Organizations aren't allowed to have politics as their primary activity.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:25
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canepazzo posted:Meanwhile, Newt is ragetweeting: Now imagine Newt had half this poo poo on Clinton.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:27
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How can people even here fall for "The IRS was targeting right-wing organizations."
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Jun 15, 2017 15:29
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:[to the tune of Bette Davis Eyes] The FBI thinks he's a spy
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Jun 15, 2017 15:29
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Javes posted:Wasn't the IRS explicitly targeting right wing organizations? Thats pretty bad IMO. A bunch of right wing organizations were all doing the same obviously wrong thing, and since Both Sides Are Bad that meant they must have been unfairly targeting them.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:29
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TheScott2K posted:Some pretty lame "scandals" in that list. "The IRS Scandal" we really gonna count right wing media losing their poo poo over civil servants doing their job as a scandal just because they say it is? Leon is pretty obviously playing devil's advocate.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:31
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Agents are GO! posted:How can people even here fall for "The IRS was targeting right-wing organizations." I always love how this argument fails in the negative and makes the assertions look stupid. "So what you're saying is that right-wing organizations never commit tax fraud?" You can say much the same about Trump. "WAH, Trump is being targeted." "If he's guilty, shouldn't he be? You can't be making the blanket assumption that he's simply incorruptible."
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Jun 15, 2017 15:34
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Discussion Quorum posted:There's a guy blowing up a Facebook discusion group I'm in with links to random tweets by "prominent" voices on "the left" that he considers to be insufficiently navel gazing, or confirmatory of the "leftist fascism" drum he's been beating for months. I could drop a sick burn about all of the Republican leaders that have coyly broached "Second Amendment solutions" over the past eight years but what's the point? The backfire effect means that getting through to an entrenched partisan is nearly impossible if they can retreat back into their information bubble and get a hit of sweet, sweet self-affirmation. Fulchrum posted:So you've drilled down to him having a persecution complex. Have you actually asked him why he is in a constant state of paranoia and feels that he is the victim of everyone else? Cease to Hope posted:All you can do with these people is learn how they got where they are and maybe plant a seed of doubt. There's no big cathartic victory where they realize they were right all along, you just maybe start a crack in the edifice. Lightning Lord posted:The real road to healing in these cases involves years of honest engagement and friendship. Look at Derek Black. Prester Jane posted:From the perspective of a Trump supporting Narrativist you have two options right now. Either A.) Live in reality where your glorious leader is a conman who is destroying your country and humiliating you by proxy or B.) Live in a fantasy where you are a noble warrior-monk struggling against a sub-human/vile Enemy that must be opposed at all costs and is spreading lies about the only true champion capable of stopping them. I'd kind of like to try this out on Fecebook but the only crazy people I see on there are friends of friends and I don't really want poo poo to go down someone else's Facebook post. They don't need the drama.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:34
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875360216665161729
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Jun 15, 2017 15:36
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I'd completely forgotten about 
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Jun 15, 2017 15:37
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Hey, anyone want to see a cult leader grooming his flock to engage in violence? Cuz you can see it right here in the below video. Check out the very opening lines used by Alex as his intro here:Alex Jones posted:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTR1xS1AHsw You should listen at least to at least the first caller in this video (starts shortly after the intro). This is live demonstration of a cult leader psychologically leading his follower (and by proxy others like him listening in) through the process of becoming violent. Note how Alex Jones is discussing the []b]method[/b] the inevitable Civil War should be conducted in because it is simply accepted as self-evident fact by right wing Narrativists that we are on the verge of a Civil War. Speaking of that, I just remembered something I wrote over two years ago. The below was published before even the Gay Marriage decision had taken place. Prester Jane posted:I think so, yes. At least, once I have been able to fully articulate my ideas, I think they predict trends fairly well. Let us consider for a moment "Narrative Convergence" and the Inner Narrative of several easily identified Authoritarian group clusters. (Obviously there are exceptions to every group cluster, these are broad trends, not perfect descriptions of every single person involved in such groups.) I feel that once the Inner Narrative's of various groups are understood it becomes very easy to see where common ground will be found between these groups. Through the Compaction Cycle as well as the need for allies, alliances will be forged as Narrative's Converge around the outlines of the Grand Narrative. Fake Edit: Aw, no red text. only mean black text  Real Edit: fixed video link. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Jun 15, 2017 |
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Jun 15, 2017 15:39
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Captain Invictus posted:Please just ignore all reports of early voting and wait until all voting is done. Early voting has a proportional lean towards Democrats, better to just wait for the total rather than get your hopes up by the early voting and then panic when the percentages change when the total tallies start rolling in. its not worth trying to infer the winner from the breakdown of early votes, but it is pretty silly not to use the number of early votes as a yardstick for how many people are likely to vote in total
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Jun 15, 2017 15:42
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I'm 99% sure that there has already been a shooting by a lunatic that listens to Alex Jones wasn't the guy that shot up the abortion clinic a Alex Jones listener
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Jun 15, 2017 15:43
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Prester Jane posted:For the record I have no loving idea what to do about this or how the situation can be remedied. I wish I did. Unfortunately when I wished for the super power of premonition I did so on a monkeys paw. That is why I can only predict the future if it is dominated by crazy people and the wish gave me no idea on how to prevent/cope with the situations my super powers allow me to foresee. holy poo poo you actually think you're some modern day cassandra instead of this thread's louise mensch. you're so goddamn high on your own farts it's unbelievable. you already have a thread dedicated to your half-baked pseudo-sociology, don't poo poo this one up ffs
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Jun 15, 2017 15:47
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After cooling down for 24 hours I do feel sympathy for Scalise and hope he recovers. I hope he himself gains some synoathy for his in victims.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:48
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The far right wing commit political murder on a semi-regular basis. That's why yesterday was pounced upon so quickly: someone on the left doing it is a relative rarity, so they felt the need to yell about it loudly to try to make it seem equivalent. But they're always yelling as loud as they can, and that only works for so long until it starts losing its effect. They're already constantly accusing Dems and liberals of this sort of thing anyway. They've gone so loud for so long that they've run out of room to escalate without making prosecution-worthy statements. When everything is the end of the world, nothing is.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:50
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Grapplejack posted:Trump's approval rating right now is roughly tied with Clinton's at this period in his administration. Also Clinton's disapproval was way lower than Trump's is right now
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Jun 15, 2017 15:50
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I still think its funny that the UK called for early parliamentary elections, had a full campaign in all seats, voted, and announced the results all within the space of time between the special primary and general election for GA-06
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Jun 15, 2017 15:51
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Rigel posted:I still think its funny that the UK called for early parliamentary elections, had a full campaign in all seats, voted, and announced the results all within the space of time between the special primary and general election for GA-06 And even with all that time, GA still tried to bar new voter registrations. A lovely Reporter posted:The far right wing commit political murder on a semi-regular basis. That's why yesterday was pounced upon so quickly: someone on the left doing it is a relative rarity, so they felt the need to yell about it loudly to try to make it seem equivalent. But they're always yelling as loud as they can, and that only works for so long until it starts losing its effect. They're already constantly accusing Dems and liberals of this sort of thing anyway. They've gone so loud for so long that they've run out of room to escalate without making prosecution-worthy statements. When everything is the end of the world, nothing is. Same with Kathy Griffin and violent rhetoric/imagery.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:53
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botany posted:holy poo poo you actually think you're some modern day cassandra instead of this thread's louise mensch. you're so goddamn high on your own farts it's unbelievable. you already have a thread dedicated to your half-baked pseudo-sociology, don't poo poo this one up ffs Prester Jane's posts are better than this post, actually, and it's easy enough to read their interesting observations and take their predictions with a grain of salt if you feel the need. There is a lot of overlap between threads in this forum and "insane ways the right wing thinks" is very relevant to PJ's own thread, the RWM thread, and this one at the very least.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:53
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Al Borland Corp. posted:After cooling down for 24 hours I do feel sympathy for Scalise and hope he recovers. I hope he himself gains some synoathy for his in victims. Don't hold your breath. I know I say things when I've had too much alcohol in me or when there's some pretty distressing news, but I really don't wish the Scalise or his ilk dead. But I would not count on him trying to get something like the Brady Plan enacted.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:56
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Al Borland Corp. posted:After cooling down for 24 hours I do feel sympathy for Scalise and hope he recovers. I hope he himself gains some synoathy for his in victims. I got dogged for feeling this way yesterday.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:57
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Al Borland Corp. posted:After cooling down for 24 hours I do feel sympathy for Scalise and hope he recovers. I hope he himself gains some synoathy for his in victims. I don't. I don't want him to die, but I have precisely zero emotional energy to spend feeling sorry for him
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Jun 15, 2017 15:57
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Al Borland Corp. posted:After cooling down for 24 hours I do feel sympathy for Scalise and hope he recovers. I hope he himself gains some synoathy for his in victims.  I also hope this piece of poo poo recovers but changes his way of thinking.
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Jun 15, 2017 15:59
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Chilichimp posted:Now imagine Newt had half this poo poo on Clinton. Just the tip newt?
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