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89 posted:We already know what's going to happen.  but I will keep all my players and they will get hurt or flame out.
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Jun 22, 2017 13:52
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Rotoviz is Cool and Good. I pay for a lot of sites, they are the best. Indeed, they also have quality entertaining podcasts.
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Jun 23, 2017 00:04
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Pfft, podcasts. I'm gonna start a YouTube show this season 😏
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Jun 23, 2017 08:29
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Might be a stupid question but does anyone know of a ranking list of all positions together INCLUDING IDP? I can find IDP rankings and offense rankings, but no clue how they compare, so no idea if say, Luke Keuchly is worth taking over Lesean McCoy, etc. This is my first year doing a full keeper league and IDP (same league!) so I really don't want to gently caress it up. Here's the IDP settings, I actually don't know if these are fairly normal or what? (Offense stats are all standard, 0 PPR). IDP Rules posted:3 points for every 4 Assisted Tackles (0.75 per) ALL The email draft (first time I'm doing that too, isn't this fun?) just started and I'm picking at 1.01, unexpectedly, so now I'm borderline flailing around. A 14 man, IDP-included keeper league is basically the league I've wanted to play in for YEARS, so I don't want to blow it now that I'm in the show.
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Jun 23, 2017 23:00
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Might be a stupid question but does anyone know of a ranking list of all positions together INCLUDING IDP? I can find IDP rankings and offense rankings, but no clue how they compare, so no idea if say, Luke Keuchly is worth taking over Lesean McCoy, etc. IDP scoring settings are way too variable across leagues for any combined offensive and defensive rankings to be useful. Best you can do is some VORP type idea by looking at how scoring drops off across the tiers of DL, LB, and DB compared to RB and WR. Those settings are good for tackle machine over pass rushers, though. But almost as important as scoring is how many starters. If you only start 1 at each defensive position, you should never keep one. If you're doing like 3 or 4 each, high end LBs might be legit first few round picks, and great keeper options for late round picks. sourdough fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Jun 24, 2017 |
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Jun 24, 2017 00:24
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Might be a stupid question but does anyone know of a ranking list of all positions together INCLUDING IDP? I can find IDP rankings and offense rankings, but no clue how they compare, so no idea if say, Luke Keuchly is worth taking over Lesean McCoy, etc. Look over the free agents and figure out the overall top scorers from last year. Then figure out where the IDP players compare to the offensive players and value them that way. It's really the easiest way to effectively determine values. IDP rankings vary significantly depending on scoring settings and there is tons of variance year to year, so it's important you do the legwork if you are going to maximize your value. Looking at that, I think a guy like Khalil Mack should provide tremendous positional value. He's been elite and I'm not sure we've seen his best yet.
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Jun 24, 2017 00:27
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IDP? Draft Snacks 
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Jun 24, 2017 00:30
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RVProfootballer posted:IDP scoring settings are way too variable across leagues for any combined offensive and defensive rankings to be useful. Best you can do is some VORP type idea by looking at how scoring drops off across the tiers of DL, LB, and DB compared to RB and WR. Those settings are good for tackle machine over pass rushers, though. Sataere posted:Look over the free agents and figure out the overall top scorers from last year. Then figure out where the IDP players compare to the offensive players and value them that way. It's really the easiest way to effectively determine values. This is hugely helpful, appreciate the tips. League is doing 2 each of DL, LB, DB and 1 LB/DB/DL flex position. Comparison example using the league's settings: last year Khalil Mack got roughly the same # of fantasy points as Melvin Gordon, so the IDPs can definitely contribute, but I'll probably start targeting them in the 3rd round or so depending on how things go. Trading picks is allowed, so I'm shopping around 1st overall and seeing what I can get for it without moving down too far. Thanks again fellas.
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Jun 24, 2017 01:03
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Pancakes by Mail posted:This is hugely helpful, appreciate the tips. League is doing 2 each of DL, LB, DB and 1 LB/DB/DL flex position. Comparison example using the league's settings: last year Khalil Mack got roughly the same # of fantasy points as Melvin Gordon, so the IDPs can definitely contribute, but I'll probably start targeting them in the 3rd round or so depending on how things go. Trading picks is allowed, so I'm shopping around 1st overall and seeing what I can get for it without moving down too far. Thanks again fellas. It's not just about points to, but percentages of points. Figure out weekly averages and tier that poo poo. You'll most likely find there is a ton of depth to be found at linebacker and receiver and plan around maximizing your value. How do the keeper settings work? This will be crucial to figuring out a plan.
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Jun 24, 2017 05:12
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Yeah comparing players across positions cannot be done purely on a points basis. You must account for positional scarcity - that is, if you rank all of the players in a given position by how many points they get, how much does the rest of the field fall off after each guy in order? Consider these two made up sets of numbers. Each row represents a list of players playing a certain position (WR, or TE, or RB, etc.), and each number is the average points per week of that player. Position A: 14, 13.9, 13.8, 13.8, 13.7. 13.2, 12, 11, 9.4, 9, 8, 8, 7.9, 7.8, 7.5, 7.4, 7.3, 7.3, 7.1, 7.1, 7, 7, 6.9, 6.9, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.7, 6.6, Position B: 14, 13, 12.5, 10.9, 9.3, 9.1, 8.5, 8, 7.8, 7.3, 7, 6.9, 6.9, 6.8, 6.7, 6.7, 6.5, 6.3, 6.3,6.2, 6.1, 6.1, 6, 5.9, 5.9, 5.8, 5.7, 5.6, 5.5, 5.4 Both of these lists have 30 numbers in them so we're looking at the top 30 players in two positions. Both lists start at 14 points. But imagine that the first two players in each position are already off the board. Simply going by points, you'd take the 13.8 ppg player in Position A over the 12.5ppg position in Position B, right? Well, no, maybe not. Because after the 12.5 guy in position B, there's a big drop off - the next guy down is only 10.9, and after that it's another big drop to 9.3. Whereas in Position A, it'll take another six players before you get down below 9.3. In other words, there is a scarcity in Position B in the range of about 8 through 14 points (only 8 players in that range) while in Position A, there is less scarcity (12 players in that range). If you are drafting to build a team, you want your total points to beat your opponents. The value a given player represents is how many points you can get in that position compared to how many points your opponents can get in the same position. Taking the 12.5ppg guy in Position B gives you an advantage over all but two of your opponents that is larger than the advantage you gain by taking the 13.8ppg guy in Position A. Mind you, this is not the only consideration: you may have to start more guys in Position A than B (say, WRs vs. TEs), there might be more variance from week to week (so a given player might be more risky but with more upside than another), and of course, you cannot actually know how many points per week a player will get you, all you can do is look at past performance and then modify based on your guesstimation of future performance. But, because positional scarcity is a thing, you can't just rank all football players across all positions by how many points you think they'll earn, and then always draft the guy who is the most points.
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Jun 24, 2017 05:27
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Does anyone have any experience with Reality Sports Online? Me and my buddy are the commissioners of our main league, but we wanted to try out the most "realistic" fantasy service to scratch the itch for GM simulation.
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Jun 24, 2017 17:45
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Really good point about positional scarcity re: IDP vs offense players. I'm trying to cobble a tier list together. In the meantime I traded the guy picking at 14th (in a 14 man league) my first overall for his first, third and fifth rounder in this year's draft, the first draft of a keeper league, so one of us got robbed. Not sure exactly who yet but I feel good about it, best year to have lots of picks in a keeper's gotta be the first year, right? Thanks again for the tips y'all
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Jun 25, 2017 21:50
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Really good point about positional scarcity re: IDP vs offense players. I'm trying to cobble a tier list together. It really depends on your keeper rules.
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Jun 25, 2017 23:13
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Really good point about positional scarcity re: IDP vs offense players. I'm trying to cobble a tier list together. The more keepers there are, the better that looks for him. If full redraft, you destroyed him. If like 6 keepers, he won.
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Jun 25, 2017 23:41
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If it's a snake draft, your first pick is at the very end of the second round, and that's fairly awful: getting two extra dudes in the third and fifth rounds is not in my opinion making up for your best player being the 28th guy left on the board. Also, keep in mind your roster is presumably limited so you're also giving up your last two draft picks. If it's not a snake draft, then it's not nearly as bad, but still not a trade I'd have made. Pick 1.1 in redraft being Zeke Elliot is potentially league-winning, especially if you can keep him for multiple years.
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Jun 26, 2017 01:53
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He's got 1.14, 2.14, 3.1, 3.14, 4.14, 5.1 and 5.14, not starting with 2.14 don't know where you're getting that from. It'd also not really matter that much if it's a snake or not since he's getting the last pick in those rounds regardless. It's not really all that different waiting those 14 picks from 1.14 to 2.14, than it would be from 1.1 to 2.14 provided he gets someone good in the 1st e: that's assuming that he meant first overall as in 1.1, not just his first pick I would probably like that trade better if you had swapped 2nds, and possibly 4ths, instead of taking the 5th, but I don't hate it. I think you could've done better than the last pick in 3 rounds for 1.1 I would've liked to see you get at least 1.14, 2.1, 3.14, and 4.1 for 1.1, 2.14, and 4.14. I'd rather have the higher picks than the extra 5th to be honest Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jun 26, 2017 |
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Jun 26, 2017 02:40
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The keeper rules do matter. How many keepers for you keep. What Is the cost of keepers? If it costs him an additional round to keep someone, thereby keeping him from keeping Zeke next year, trading down is nice. The fact is, we don't have enough information to really evaluate the trade.
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Jun 26, 2017 02:46
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It also is going to be hard to judge fully until we see who ends up on the board at 1.14
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Jun 26, 2017 02:48
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Teemu Pokemon posted:It also is going to be hard to judge fully until we see who ends up on the board at 1.14 Honestly, I think there's plenty of value I would like at 14. I got Jordy at 14 in the first slow draft. My issue is in valuing picks for this year and future years. If you can keep Zeke forever, I would be very hard pressed to give up that first overall pick, even for the additional picks.
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Jun 26, 2017 02:54
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Teemu Pokemon posted:He's got 1.14, 2.14, 3.1, 3.14, 4.14, 5.1 and 5.14, not starting with 2.14 don't know where you're getting that from. It'd also not really matter that much if it's a snake or not since he's getting the last pick in those rounds regardless. It's not really all that different waiting those 14 picks from 1.14 to 2.14, than it would be from 1.1 to 2.14 provided he gets someone good in the 1st My fault. For some reason I missed that he got the other guy's first. Yeah that's not nearly as bad, and could be an OK trade depending on the keeper rules.
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Jun 26, 2017 06:47
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Rules are 7 keepers, next year will be another snake draft with the pick order being the reverse order of the standings. My thinking was I'd much rather load up in year one to get as many lottery tickets as possible for guys that could explode and become keeper-worthy, plus I do think there's gonna be plenty of value left on the board at #14 (with the IDP rules, someone like Khalil Mack or Kwon Alexander could definitely be sitting there - my jury-rigged beersheet has them as a solid first-rounder). I don't know a lot of my opponents but if someone trips over their dick and picks Tom Brady or something in round 1, then even better. It was a tough choice in the end, I would have loved to have Zeke for eternity but I'm trying a different tack. I fully admit that in a year's time I could be this league's Cleveland Browns, eternally cursing my own idiocy. On the other hand having a much deeper than average bench could pay dividends especially in a league that's as willing to make trades as this one. Only time will tell! e: To clarify, our keeper rules mean that after keepers are designated, everyone else is just thrown in a pool waiting to be drafted (I don't get to keep my amazing steal in the 14th round for only the cost of a 14th round pick next year, unfortunately).
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Jun 26, 2017 14:44
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Pancakes by Mail posted:e: To clarify, our keeper rules mean that after keepers are designated, everyone else is just thrown in a pool waiting to be drafted (I don't get to keep my amazing steal in the 14th round for only the cost of a 14th round pick next year, unfortunately). To me this alone makes it imperative to keep sure thing first rounders like Zeke over lottery tickets. If there's no value picks you want to make sure you keep the best players, no matter what.
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Jun 26, 2017 15:20
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RCarr posted:To me this alone makes it imperative to keep sure thing first rounders like Zeke over lottery tickets. If there's no value picks you want to make sure you keep the best players, no matter what. Well poo poo. Not as good a trade as I'd thought, but I still like my chances of getting an elite guy at #14 just because adding IDP means 3 more positions and 3 more pools of players that can be picked up (maybe that doesn't actually make sense though). That's a good point though, hadn't really taken into account that my genius steal with his 5th round pick I acquired will still take up 1/7th of my keeper slots just like Zeke would. Hmmm. Oh well, gonna have to try and make up for it with smart drafting. Maybe I was a little too laissez-faire by thinking "hey I could just have easily been randomly assigned the #14 pick, so if I end up there anyway plus get two more picks for it I'm coming out way ahead!"
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Jun 26, 2017 16:00
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Yeah in most keeper leagues, you keep someone for their original draft spot, or their spot minus a round or two, something like that. Sometimes a first-round pick can't even be kept. Under those conditions, a lottery ticket is great because your 10th-round pick explodes, you keep him for an 8th, and you get to build a monster team. With your current rules, a sure thing is always better than a lottery ticket. Zeke will be drafted 1.1 and then kept forever because keepers are effectively all costing their owners only their final round picks (e.g., when the roster fills completely they can't draft any more players). If you keep seven players then they're costing you your last seven rounds and you still have your early round picks to grab more good players. This is not in my opinion a good way to run a keeper league.
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Jun 26, 2017 17:31
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You'll never guess who Cecil Lammey spent multiple minutes discussing on The Audible. Cody. Mother. Fuckin. Latimer. 
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Jun 26, 2017 18:28
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Spoeank posted:You'll never guess who Cecil Lammey spent multiple minutes discussing on The Audible. If his 3 years of stats were compressed into one game, it'd be a pretty impressive game, but you'd still probably wonder how he only got 1 TD.
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Jun 26, 2017 20:06
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If you want to hear coach/camp narratives about why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Audible. Get ready for hype trains. If you want to hear film analysis of why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Harris Football podcast. Get ready to have cold water poured on your hype trains. If you want to hear analytics and metrics-based analysis of why players will be good in fantasy, listen to Rotoviz Radio. Get ready for dry delivery, but smart and balanced takes backed by numbers. Each have their zealots, and there are plenty of other pods out there that delve into each school of analysis to varying degrees, but those three exemplify each area best IMO. Rotoviz has some of the smartest content out there, and their AIR yards metric was super useful in identifying trade targets in-season last year.
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Jun 26, 2017 20:21
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Lammey : Latimer :: Harris : Joique loving Bell Everybody's got their guy I guess.
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Jun 26, 2017 20:54
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Leperflesh posted:This is not in my opinion a good way to run a keeper league. Yeah, you have to have inflation of some type or else it can get really, really imbalanced, really fast. It also means you'll have a really hard time ever expanding the league/finding somebody to take over a team in case somebody drops out because all of the good players are already locked up forever.
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Jun 26, 2017 21:09
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Inspector_666 posted:Yeah, you have to have inflation of some type or else it can get really, really imbalanced, really fast. We have a league that runs similarly, but there's a hard cap on how long you can keep someone and it's extended for rookies, so you get decisions about whether to keep promising young guys for awhile or shorter terms on already talented vets. It's also a superflex league, which tends to free up non-QBs. It's not the best system, but it's worked fairly smoothly so far.
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Jun 26, 2017 21:46
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It's more of a dynasty set up than keeper set up. Because of that, I think it's a good trade. He gets two extra picks of the first 60 players. That's significant. Having said that, either go full dynasty or fix the keeper rules. Otherwise, you'll have some real long term issues.
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Jun 26, 2017 21:53
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Forever_Peace posted:Lammey : Latimer :: Harris : Joique loving Bell Ask me about Clive Walford
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Jun 26, 2017 23:08
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Christopher Harris is loving garbage. He's smart but can't formulate an argument and talks himself in circles trying to backfill the reason why he does or doesn't like a player. He doesn't trust Devonta because he's "too small"
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Jun 26, 2017 23:36
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Cervixalot posted:If you want to hear coach/camp narratives about why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Audible. Get ready for hype trains.
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Jun 27, 2017 00:56
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Spoeank posted:Christopher Harris is loving garbage. Yeah he's an old man yelling at the analytics kids to get off his lawn. It sure how much of him I will be able to stand of him this season.
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Jun 27, 2017 01:35
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Jun 27, 2017 04:03
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Cervixalot posted:If you want to hear coach/camp narratives about why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Audible. Get ready for hype trains. If you want to be entertained and just care about news, Around the NFL is cool and good.
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Jun 27, 2017 04:11
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What's going on with the N/A rows at TE and WR?
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Jun 28, 2017 00:09
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After reading the scoring setup for the Scott fish bowl this year, I'm very intrigued by a points per first down league that doesn't completely overvalue running backs.
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Jun 28, 2017 00:28
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Leperflesh posted:What's going on with the N/A rows at TE and WR? My source for position levels has their names backwards.
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Jun 28, 2017 00:36
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