Risky Bisquick posted:

I was at the Keg doing some DD about housing for the debt megathread, and some people at my table raised an interesting datapoint I'd never heard before. Over 250k unoccupied homes in the gta. Anyone else hear this or got numbers?

Baronjutter posted:

It's really depressing talking to "urban planners" or people with a keen interest in the subject but absolutely zero understanding of economics or finance. The solution to vancouver is more supply. The problem with vancouver and every problem in the entire world is nimby's fighting density. With enough density all problems are solved. Gentrification isn't a problem, it's once again solved by more supply. There's no economic problems in Vancouver because prices are high, it's simply supply and demand. We could be living in a post-scarcity utopia if those drat politicians and racist nimbys (poor ethnic communities are just racist against rich white people) just allowed the density that the market is demanding.

You try to talk about local incomes, or actual population increases, or market speculation, or our insane levels of debt, and it's all just waved away because ultimately it's only about supply and demand.

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

What gets me is that people who say it's supply and demand don't seem to realize that there are two sides to the equation - the supply side, and the demand side, but none of those idiots ever talk about addressing the demand side, because FREE MARKET HUR DUR DUR.

Morons.

Edit: And Michael Campbell, and his carnival huckster sidekick Michael Levy, are the worst for this kind of crap. I haven't listened to CKNW in years, but these clowns are a big reason why.

namaste faggots posted:

Just lol if you've been keeping all your money in a savings account all this time

Vehementi posted:

Oh man we are closing in on 1000 pages of "buy now or be priced out forever" people being right all along

Rime posted:

Any investment, even real estate, can be highly profitable so long as you can time the market.

This thread is about discussing how most Canadians are too stupid to do that, and will be financially ruined by the outcome. If you want to lump yourself in with that metric, that's on you.

Subjunctive posted:

Are you suggesting that you're smart enough to time the market? Bold claim, if so, and I'd love to see your historical returns.

Subjunctive posted:

Are you suggesting that you're smart enough to time the market? Bold claim, if so, and I'd love to see your historical returns.

Baronjutter posted:

It's really depressing talking to "urban planners" or people with a keen interest in the subject but absolutely zero understanding of economics or finance. The solution to vancouver is more supply. The problem with vancouver and every problem in the entire world is nimby's fighting density. With enough density all problems are solved. Gentrification isn't a problem, it's once again solved by more supply. There's no economic problems in Vancouver because prices are high, it's simply supply and demand. We could be living in a post-scarcity utopia if those drat politicians and racist nimbys (poor ethnic communities are just racist against rich white people) just allowed the density that the market is demanding.

You try to talk about local incomes, or actual population increases, or market speculation, or our insane levels of debt, and it's all just waved away because ultimately it's only about supply and demand.

Rime posted:

Nobody can time the market, dipshit. All you can do is get lucky.

Rime posted:

the talent deficit posted:

if you'd invested in VUN in 2013 you would have doubled your money by now. gently caress housing

Rime posted:

Nobody can time the market, dipshit.

Rime posted:

Any investment, even real estate, can be highly profitable so long as you can time the market.

This thread is about discussing how most Canadians are too stupid to do that,

Rime posted:

Nobody can time the market, dipshit. All you can do is get lucky.

quote:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/6jsab8/interesting_economic_insights_from_banking_deputy/

Had an opportunity to see a presentation by Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC. It was a general update on the state of economic affairs across the world and how it pertained to canada.
What I remember:

• American economy is doing well, largely the hold over of Obama's policies and free/cheap money.
  
• Trump's proposed infrastructure spending is ridiculously small boost to the economy, would be irrelevant if it happens
  
• 10% tax cut to upper class will not result in investment, as productivity gains are slow: there's too much output already
  
• jobs aren't coming back. since the 1960s automation have displaced jobs at a rate of 8:1 over offshoring, offshoring is a myth
  
• China's GDP is based on 4% sales to the US; if tariffs are envoked, it will hurt the US more as a 2% China export market will have China disengage from any US policies
  
• US workforce is in dire straights; there are more people collecting old age security and disability than actually working. until a party acknowledges this as their core platform, populism will continue to succeed in his opinion (personal, not bank policy).
  
• the 'great' employment numbers in the US right now are still worse than the 91 recession at its height. this is likely as good as it will get until a new boom driven by technology or some innovation.]
  
• the philips curve (e.g. wages rise and unemployment falls) is broken. joked that they should take his nobel prize back.
  

UK / Brexit

• Bet against the pound; Trump is anti-free trade which was the UK's safety value, and the EU will look to make an example of Britain as long as Angela Merkle is still around.

China:

• can't trust any economic numbers from china. 6.5% growth is highly suspect.

Canada:

• $300b debt for Ontario is not a ticking timebomb, but will hamper future governments over the next 5-10-20 years, as debt servicing will be more difficult. opens a window long term for Alberta to potentially eclipse Ontario as the economic engine of canada in the coming decades, in the same way Ontario supplanted Quebec.
  
• Toronto real estate is a very complicated problem: foreign investment, immigration, growth policies, interest rates, cheap money.
  
• Green belt is #1 reason why housing suddenly skyrocketed. housing industry has not shifted to high density units fast enough, and there's hard limits on expansion.
  rent control enacted by Wynne's government is catastrophic. over 20 'for rent' purpose built initiatives have been cancelled already. inflation +2% is his recommendation, he anticipates this will be the policy after the next election no matter who is in charge.
  
• Vancouver's tax had a short term 8 month effect, that is over and growth will return.
  
• Relative to other world class cities, Toronto is still affordable. The mentality of people needs to change, to couples raising families in apartments and/or townhouses in high density areas; this is the way most of the rest of the world behaves and should be considered normal. its political suicide to state this however.
  inflation is happening, bank of canada will be raising interest rates soon. inflation is a lagging indicator, we may already be too late...oil has come back, west is growing again.
  every recession in the last 40 years was a result of poor interest rate policy (according to Tal). inflation escaping control, interest rates rise quickly to compensate, trigger recession due to whiplash.
  
• Canada is relatively well positioned compared to the rest of western nations.
  
• Canada has the highest educated workfroce, but also the lowest paid educated workforce and the highest unemployment amongst educated. two solutions to this: 1) move to less property ownership and more renting, so people can migrate to opportunity more easily, 2) canada needs to produce more purposeful education and less humanities/arts/sociology/political science. another political minefield, but will need to be addressed.
  
• education is the one cost that has risen above the cost of inflation the past few decades; every other industry/product has seen vast reductions in total cost.
  

I believe I caught the gist of everything he said; my understanding is this was a canned presentation he shares with numerous business groups, employees, government officials, etc. Its reflective of his own analysis, not necessarily a consensus opinion for the industry.

He admits he had tough word with the ontario minister of finance re: rent control. He expressed no opinion for or against the green belt, merely that it was influencing house prices economically.

quote:

..rent control enacted by Wynne's government is catastrophic. over 20 'for rent' purpose built initiatives have been cancelled already.

Femtosecond posted:

I'd love to see a source for his claim that purpose built rental proposals are being pulled. I'm suspicious of this.

Femtosecond posted:

I'd love to see a source for his claim that purpose built rental proposals are being pulled. I'm suspicious of this.

PittTheElder posted:

I'm intrigued by his claim that oil is already back.