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Oh yeah sorry, I meant lead backs on NFL teams. There's theoretically 32 of them and I'm sure a fair few that won't do better than Coleman, but... yeah, I can't really finish this thought without maybe pointing out players that I'd rather fall to me, so. 
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Jul 7, 2017 03:42
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Yeah, we are playing that game. I really wanted to ask "Frank Gore or CJ Anderson?" really bad in the main thread, but I can't show my cards lolz
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Jul 7, 2017 03:47
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The thing is, this isn't best ball. When do you start Coleman? Obviously if Freeman is hurt, but otherwise, you're starting him in your RB2 slot and just hoping that this week he has the opportunities, maybe if the Falcons get well ahead and are running down the clock. Gore/CJ on the other hand you can start in your RB2 slot any week they're not already injured and have a very solid floor to work from. Most of us are drafting our third RB at this point, so this is a guy you're going to slot in on a bye week or if one of your top two guys is hurt, not an every-week starter anyway, so you want someone you can just plug in. I see Bilal Powell just went and he's probably the RB1 on a ground-heavy attack. I guess there's still a chance Forte is RB1 but even then, I'd put Powell and Coleman's opportunities as being quite similar, albeit Coleman is on a much better team. I'm not down on Coleman exactly, I just don't love his opportunity. There's a ton of teams in the NFL where he'd be great as a featured RB, but a healthy Devonta Freeman finishes top five and I don't think that leaves Coleman enough to want him ahead of guys like Gore, CJ anderson, and Bilal Powell. e. Gillislee I'm completely not sold on though, despite being a Patriot he's a huge risk because he's unproven as a RB1, plus you know, Belichick loves to dick around with his running backs.
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Jul 7, 2017 03:55
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Leperflesh posted:The thing is, this isn't best ball. When do you start Coleman? Obviously if Freeman is hurt, but otherwise, you're starting him in your RB2 slot and just hoping that this week he has the opportunities, maybe if the Falcons get well ahead and are running down the clock. Last year, Freeman finished as a top back and Coleman outperformed most of them. His opportunities should be fine. I started Coleman in an RB2 slot for much of last year and was fine. It's just a gut feeling. I get your logic. I really do.
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Jul 7, 2017 04:16
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6.12 Eddie Lacy 7.01 Doug Martin I'm just rounding out my starting lineup, here. I need a middle-of-the-round RB2 and some depth. These guys are starters, currently, and their teams are going to move the ball
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Jul 7, 2017 14:19
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Drunk Nerds posted:6.12 Eddie Lacy Dang it. I was really hoping one of the two made it back to me.
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Jul 7, 2017 14:41
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And there's the other two guys I'd take before.coleman, lol.
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Jul 7, 2017 17:00
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Leperflesh posted:And there's the other two guys I'd take before.coleman, lol. Martin is missing a quarter of his games. And Lacy didn't make my weight cutoff, so he's off my board.  Lacy is in a time share too. I don't like his situation.
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Jul 7, 2017 17:25
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for my rb3, missing the first few games is fine, my 1 and 2 will not likely lose their jobs or get hurt before then. And lacy at least has the opportunity to keep a starting job... coleman does not. Enough said tho. If I'm wrong, that won't be unusual, fantasy is mostly bullshit guessing anyway
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Jul 7, 2017 17:30
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Leperflesh posted:for my rb3, missing the first few games is fine, my 1 and 2 will not likely lose their jobs or get hurt before then. And lacy at least has the opportunity to keep a starting job... coleman does not. Agreed. And honestly, Martin was someone I was targeting. I just straight up don't like Lacy at his ADP. Would rather have Rawls ten rounds later. Since I'm starting a fantasy blog in a couple of weeks, I'm not being as cagey with my choices and my decision making this year, despite playing with a lot of you guys. I go against the grain on a lot of things, but if you've been in leagues with me, you know I'm very good at this. My number one rule is don't be afraid of going against the grain of conventional wisdom. I'd rather be wrong because I made a bad choice then be wrong because I went with a consensus that I'm not behind. It's a hard rule to adhere to though. Last year, group think cost me Hunter Henry in dynasty and it still bothers me.
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Jul 7, 2017 17:57
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Sataere posted:Agreed. And honestly, Martin was someone I was targeting. I just straight up don't like Lacy at his ADP. Would rather have Rawls ten rounds later. Oh, man, yeah that. I use beersheets and the last couple years I used them as a crutch to avoid learning about a lot of the guys I was drafting. I definitely wound up with one or two players I shouldn't have, just because I went with the consensus. (And that's no knock on Beersheets, mind you, that's just a tool that aggregates expert rankings, it's not on Beer to second-guess or analyze that stuff. ) This year I'm trying really hard to actually develop theories about every player I draft, and every higher-ADP player I pass over, too. Even if my reasoning winds up being totally wrong, at least it was my reasoning. Otherwise, why play? A computer can take consensus ADP and autodraft a team. All that said, my strength has always been in working the waiver wire and that's where most of my effort goes regardless.
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Jul 7, 2017 18:30
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Sataere posted:My number one rule is don't be afraid of going against the grain of conventional wisdom. I'd rather be wrong because I made a bad choice then be wrong because I went with a consensus that I'm not behind. It's a hard rule to adhere to though. Last year, group think cost me Hunter Henry in dynasty and it still bothers me. That's Matthew Berry's #1 rule too. That being said it's a good rule. I realize I'm on the clock, so I think I forgot to save pre-picks. I might not be able to get to this until this afternoon. Sorry for the delay y'all.
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Jul 7, 2017 19:00
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Leperflesh posted:
Waiver wire is where leagues are won.
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Jul 7, 2017 19:31
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Leperflesh posted:Oh, man, yeah that. I use beersheets and the last couple years I used them as a crutch to avoid learning about a lot of the guys I was drafting. I definitely wound up with one or two players I shouldn't have, just because I went with the consensus. (And that's no knock on Beersheets, mind you, that's just a tool that aggregates expert rankings, it's not on Beer to second-guess or analyze that stuff. ) I'm the first person to say that ignoring consensus values for your own personal rankings is perfectly acceptable. It's something I routinely do, no matter how hard it is to ignore the compulsion to simply follow what THE SHEET tells me to do.
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Jul 7, 2017 19:53
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I'm the first person to say that ignoring consensus values for your own personal rankings is perfectly acceptable. It's something I routinely do, no matter how hard it is to ignore the compulsion to simply follow what THE SHEET tells me to do. I only adhere to the posted rankings. Thats why I end up with the top kicker in the 9th round every year
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Jul 7, 2017 20:09
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Drunk Nerds posted:I only adhere to the posted rankings. Thats why I end up with the top kicker in the 9th round every year Well, yeah. For kickers you gotta do that.
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Jul 7, 2017 20:14
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It's also why I end up drafting 4 defenses
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Jul 7, 2017 20:20
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I'm the first person to say that ignoring consensus values for your own personal rankings is perfectly acceptable. It's something I routinely do, no matter how hard it is to ignore the compulsion to simply follow what THE SHEET tells me to do. If you just follow the sheets blindly, you are using them wrong. There is no question that my recent fantasy football dominance can be linked to them, but only because it is an easy tool to figure out where players will be drafted and adjust my strategy to maximize the players I draft that I love.
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Jul 7, 2017 21:49
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To go over my last couple of picks - 3.07 - Jarvis Landry. PPR machine, probably not a lot of TDs. Should get solid and consistent production. A normal WR2 in this scoring scheme. 4.06 - Drew Brees. Gave my thoughts already. Top 5 QB consistently. Set it and forget it. 5.07 - Dalvin Cook. Since I auto-drafted him I did some checking around and he will start off as the Vikings RB1 with Murray recovering from injury. If he can keep it this might be a sneaky good pick in hindsight, but I don't trust it as rookie RBs tend to take a bit of time to learn pro pass block schemes which may lead to some bench time. 6.06 - Paul Perkins. Low competition for him being RB1 on the Giants. Gore's age and mileage bothered me. CJ Anderson, Bilal Powell (my second in line), Eddie Lacy, Mike Gillislee all appear to be in hot hand time shares. Doug Martin was also considered but I chose a bit safer in case early on Cook gets the same treatment Perkins got in his rookie year. Next round if any of the mentioned did make it to me I would have heavily considered drafting them but we got ourselves a big ol' RB run! I generally don't take ADP too much into consideration when drafting other than 'do I believe this player that I want will 100% make it to me in the next round based on how he as been historically drafted?' Worked for me to this point for fantasy so sticking to it! Drunk Nerds posted:I only adhere to the posted rankings. Thats why I end up with the top kicker in the 9th round every year CHRIS loving HOPE
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Jul 8, 2017 02:07
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I gotta hit on one of these old guys, right?
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Jul 8, 2017 02:34
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89 posted:I gotta hit on one of these old guys, right? Yeah, maybe. I'd say I'm happy with Kelvin. His catch rate and y/r were up last year compared to 2014. So that's a plus.
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Jul 8, 2017 03:21
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The adp list is crammed full of QBs and rookies and WR/RB 2s/3s, so maybe I'm reaching, but: blount is in my opinion probably the starter all season and after that RB run we just had, I'm not waiting. At the least, I think he gives me a safe floor when he's healthy which is what I want in my third slot.
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Jul 8, 2017 17:49
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Leperflesh posted:The adp list is crammed full of QBs and rookies and WR/RB 2s/3s, so maybe I'm reaching, but: blount is in my opinion probably the starter all season and after that RB run we just had, I'm not waiting. At the least, I think he gives me a safe floor when he's healthy which is what I want in my third slot. I'm less sure that he's the RB1 all season, I feel like that's going to be somewhat of a committee, but there's a solid chance Blount is a 2 down and goal line back there, and I think he's a pretty solid pick here.
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Jul 8, 2017 18:17
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I had Blount in my next autodraft and even thought about him before Powell, but then I looked in the mirror and slapped the homer out of me.
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Jul 8, 2017 18:20
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The thing is, Sproles is 34. Maybe he'll have Gore-like longevity, but I think the Eagles picking up Blount is a tacit acknowledgement that no, he's not gonna still be able to carry that workload. You might be right about a timeshare... but Blount is a superbowl-winning QB who at 30 is still clearly playing as if he is in his prime. He can't possibly repeat his 18 TDs from last season, but in the seventh round I'd be delighted with 8. I don't see Smallwood or Pumphrey as threats: they're future stock for the Eagles, to be developed on special teams etc., not really playable backs at this point. e. I would certainly have taken Powell before Blount, yeah. e2. Basically I guess Blount is taking all of Ryan Matthews' work, plus maybe some of Sproles, and that's a lot of work. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Jul 8, 2017 |
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Jul 8, 2017 18:25
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Leperflesh posted:The thing is, Sproles is 34. Maybe he'll have Gore-like longevity, but I think the Eagles picking up Blount is a tacit acknowledgement that no, he's not gonna still be able to carry that workload. You might be right about a timeshare... but Blount is a superbowl-winning QB who at 30 is still clearly playing as if he is in his prime. I don't think it matters. Sproles and Blount are two different roles. Pretty stoked to go with Coleman and Henry with my last two picks. I feel like I have the two best 2nd string RBs for top ten RB1 production this year. It's a high upside gambit and I can still pick up a nice third down guy later.
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Jul 9, 2017 02:43
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I should have and was gonna pick Woodhead. But I've recently read too many AP hype articles on the Saints, sooo Then remember how bad rear end Hightower still was for the saints last year as the #2 RB and he ain't exactly AP.
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Jul 9, 2017 04:56
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TIGHT END RUN!!!!!! 😱😱😱😱😱😱😱
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Jul 9, 2017 06:58
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89 posted:TIGHT END RUN!!!!!! 😱😱😱😱😱😱😱 I'd rather start one than be left behind. Plus Eifert offers a ton of upside if he's healthy. In the past I waited even longer on a TE and really hated the outcome. As for Maclin, I feel like there are a bunch of high upside players in this tier. It was difficult to decide between them but I chose the guy with the QB who has an amazing arm.
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Jul 9, 2017 12:56
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Maclin went much earlier than in the first goon slow draft. I'm giving you guys too much information!
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Jul 9, 2017 18:21
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Sataere posted:Maclin went much earlier than in the first goon slow draft. I'm giving you guys too much information! No need to worry: The reason Maclin went later was because he was on the chiefs when he was picked in that first draft, iirc Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Jul 9, 2017 |
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Jul 9, 2017 22:01
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Drunk Nerds posted:No need to worry: The reason Maclin went later was because he was on the chiefs when he was picked in that first draft, iirc And he was still drafted too late. Cutting Maclin is why the GM was fired. He's a WR2 on any team this year and he'll legitimately be the fourth receiver drafted on a lot of teams because people are dumb.
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Jul 9, 2017 22:22
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Sataere posted:Cutting Maclin is why the GM was fired. Well, sort of. Dude had a lot of faults, especially when it came to salary cap management http://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2017/06/23/roundup-of-all-theories-behind-chiefs-release-of-john-dorsey/
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Jul 9, 2017 22:24
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Noooo, Decker was supposed to fall to me! Mariota.
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Jul 9, 2017 22:28
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Hmm I didn't realize that Maclin dropped all the way to 155th overall in that first draft. That must have been because he didn't have a team
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Jul 9, 2017 22:31
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Taking my second QB possibly a round early. Of the wideouts at this round or better adp, I mostly wanted d-jax, except I already have evans and do not want to double up on the same team. I think Cousins will at least repeat last year's production as he prepares to earn a record-breakingly huge contract (with the niners) next year.
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Jul 9, 2017 23:31
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LOL 2nd QB.
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Jul 10, 2017 00:17
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I've been very happy with my guys so far. The only pick I'd want back is Martavis Bryant, should have taken Crabtree, but he's one of those players that could win your league for you if you're right. I think Cobb, Powell, Tyreek, and even Matty Ice went too late.
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Jul 10, 2017 00:40
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Yeah you really could have used another WR there instead of a 2nd QB
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Jul 10, 2017 00:42
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Honestly, I'm not too against this weird drafting idea I've spontaneously gone with. Load up on the discounted old guys who were the elite 1-2 years ago. Pad the bottom with boom or bust high potential young guys.
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Jul 10, 2017 00:47
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