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Teemu Pokemon posted:65-80 catches is like 650-950 yards and 6-9(+ with Rodgers??) scores when comparing Bennett's career numbers, and those Packers TE stats show that their TEs will see ~95 targets, and if they have a legit TE1, he can expect like 85% of that target share. What about Bennett's talent, quarterback, or complementary weapons, make you think he can't turn 75 targets (75% of 90 total TE targets) into 157 points (60 catches for 670 yards and 5 TDs, aka his average the last 5 years with 4 of those getting the ball from Eli and Cutler), which would've made him TE11 last year. Obviously matching Kelce's numbers is hyperbole unless the Packers actually really do use the TE (lol) but at whatever he's going, I'll take a TE10 floor over spending a top-60 pick on a TE 105 out of 100 times especially when Alex Smith is throwing one of them the ball capping his ceiling from locked and loaded TE1 to "just another good TE you will draft too high at the expense of the rest of your team" goddamn I thought we weren't talking about this Oooor you can wait until like round 11 to pick up your TE and let all your fantasy dreams get Doyled again. EDIT: Also I'm all in on Tyreek Hill (in dynasty... what's his redraft ADP?)
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Jul 14, 2017 06:28
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I had Jason Witten last year who was a solid TE11, cost absolutely no draft capital, and looked really fuckin good when I had the DeMarco Murray I drafted with a mid round pick that I could've totally used on a TE who would've obviously also carried me to two separate finals
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Jul 14, 2017 06:33
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Kelce is going at ADP 32.5 (3rd) and Walker, Bennett, and Henry are going at 88, 92.5 (8th) & 99 (9th) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiGIQrt1IaE e: ebron's going in the 11th where my spoeank at Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 06:48 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 06:46
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Just to put my takes where my talk is: 5 over 100 ADP TEs where at least two will be top-12, and one top-10, next year: 156 (13.12) Witten 157 (14.1) Hooper 166 (14.10) Brate 170 (15.2) Polish Hat 178 (15.10) Allen e: there's also reasonable scenarios that could lead to mostly undrafted Gates/Watson/Davis being solid TE1 options for good stretches of the season Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 07:04 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 07:00
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I'm biased against Witten because I feel like he always ends up as TE11 because he'll score the 11th most points every week. Not really a week winner but he is an iron man, which is pretty rare for tight ends. I am totally on board with guys like Doyle, Brate, and Ebron after the 10th though. I poo poo-talked Ebron last year but this is probably his year. He has made solid incremental progress every year. I still worry about his red zone target share but he'll see plenty of regular targets to be a TE1. Guys, I think TE might actually be deep this year... 
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Jul 14, 2017 07:19
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I always have to remind myself that every year there's like four surprise TEs that were completely undrafted in fantasy that finish in the top twelve. Just pick one of them off the waiver wire and you're gold.
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Jul 14, 2017 07:23
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Leperflesh posted:I always have to remind myself that every year there's like four surprise TEs that were completely undrafted in fantasy that finish in the top twelve. Just pick one of them off the waiver wire and you're gold. 4.5, actually, on average 
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Jul 14, 2017 07:36
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Leperflesh posted:I always have to remind myself that every year there's like four surprise TEs that were completely undrafted in fantasy that finish in the top twelve. Just pick one of them off the waiver wire and you're gold. It's not so much that it's deep, just that the good ones realized that the position is actually trash top to bottom and they've adjusted their output accordingly
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Jul 14, 2017 07:39
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Tiptoes posted:I'm biased against Witten because I feel like he always ends up as TE11 because he'll score the 11th most points every week. Not really a week winner but he is an iron man, which is pretty rare for tight ends. The thing is though, that the only TE, aside from a full season of Gronk, that is a week winner it's Reed and you're missing like 6 of those weeks minimum so it doesn't make sense (unless you're doing best ball but that totally changes everything) Like, Kelce is the defacto TE1 if Gronk is hobbled and I'd say there are a good handful of guys around his ADP like Rodgers/Robinson/Allen/Brady/DT who are infinitely more likely to win you any given week
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Jul 14, 2017 07:44
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<morpheus voice> What if I told you... all tight ends are bad And my hot take is Kelce is TE1 but thats because Gronk (1st round) and Reed (3rd/4th) will miss like 6 games a pop
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Jul 14, 2017 07:44
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Jul 14, 2017 07:49
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Spoeank posted:<morpheus voice> Really going out on a limb predicting last year's TE1 as most likely to be TE1 again  Actually though Gronk will probably play most of the season and 12ish games from him is probably enough to be TE1.And Teemu, Bennett is the worst, you know he's terrible, he's a tight end after all. I rest my case.
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Jul 14, 2017 07:54
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Kelce is TE3 on average behind Gronk and Reed rn so i guess the hotness of my take is how little doubt in my mind it will happen Edit except asj and this becomes less of a joke by the day
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Jul 14, 2017 07:55
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RVProfootballer posted:And Teemu, Bennett is the worst, you know he's terrible, he's a tight end after all. I rest my case. fuckin QED
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Jul 14, 2017 08:00
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Bennett has been a top 5 TE the past few years every year with different QBs, different teams. Great ones (Brady) and poopy ones (Cutler). But he's on discount every year. I will draft the Black Unicorn and cash in.
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Jul 14, 2017 08:14
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Teemu Pokemon posted:The thing is though, that the only TE, aside from a full season of Gronk, that is a week winner it's Reed and you're missing like 6 of those weeks minimum so it doesn't make sense (unless you're doing best ball but that totally changes everything)
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Jul 14, 2017 08:17
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89 posted:Bennett has been a top 5 TE the past few years every year with different QBs, different teams. Great ones (Brady) and poopy ones (Cutler). But he's on discount every year. I will draft the Black Unicorn and cash in. No he hasn't hth
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Jul 14, 2017 14:20
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Tiptoes posted:I'm not meaning like dominant blow-up performances. I'm just thinking relative to my opponents in a 12 team league. If I'm starting a TE that gets me the 11th most points that week, I'm at a disadvantage against someone who started the TE6 or TE9 that week. I just don't think Witten is enough of an asset in my lineup. Again, not really, because historically the difference between like TE5-8 and TE9-14 is about 1.5 PPG and not worth the draft capital. I would say you have a point when it comes to TE1-3/4/5 depending on the year, but a) we already know how I feel about drafting those guys b) There's always one ADP80+ TE that breaks into that club or at least knocks on the door, and since it's already established that 6-14 is effectively the same, I'd rather take a chance and try to hit on that guy, and just make up those <2 ppg elsewhere if I miss and have to start Jason Witten e: the difference between TE5 (Graham) and TE11 (Witten) last year in full PPR was 2.3 PPG, the difference between Witten and Brate (TE7) was 1.2 PPG After you get past the Gronk/Kelce/Reed tier, every single TE is pretty much exactly the same relative to ADP and I'm not wasting dart throws at more important positions to hopefully (hopefully is the operative word because TE is so goddamn volatile) lock up an extra maybe 2 points that I could easily find elsewhere if I'm not wasting higher picks on TEs e2: this is doubly wrong with Witten, because as stated, he's a model of consistency and he's going to get you TE11 pretty much every single week, instead of half the guys in front of him between TE5 and TE10 who will fluctuate any given week between the 3rd and 15th best score Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 14:43 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 14:24
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Thanks for this. 3rd year using them I think, maybe 4th? I've won once.
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Jul 14, 2017 14:33
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Also, one of my favorite thing about beersheets is the examples that beer posts on reddit. I figure we could do a whole draft right here and see how the draft turns out. We can use my league's scoring as an example. 12 Team - 0.5 PPR - 1(QB) / 2(RB) / 2(WR) / 1(TE) / 1(RB/WR/TE) We randomly got the 3rd overall pick. The first 2 picks are David Johnson and Leveon Bell. Who are we taking next? My vote is Zek. 
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Jul 14, 2017 15:14
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To veer slightly into low ADP TEs, Baltimore lost 120 TE targets. Is there value in the guys remaining?
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Jul 14, 2017 15:26
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Watson is basically going undrafted and he's the #1 guy on my TE-diamond-in-the-rough WW watchlist
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Jul 14, 2017 15:47
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They lost 120 TE targets but thats because Flacco gets a favorite target and obliterates them with targets (Boldin, Mason) I wouldn't look at the TEs specifically to soak up targets. They'll distribute to Maclin and Woodhead, mostly. The whole TE situation there is a M E S S.
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Jul 14, 2017 16:12
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Schefter says "growing sense" that Elliott's gonna get suspend for a couple of games. Grab your McFadden shares now, I guess? http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=20039505
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Jul 14, 2017 16:31
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RisqueBarber posted:Also, one of my favorite thing about beersheets is the examples that beer posts on reddit. I figure we could do a whole draft right here and see how the draft turns out. We can use my league's scoring as an example. Lets debate zeke vs brown. I'll start with brown: - As close as you can get to a guarantee. Always finishes top 5, rarely misses games. Zeke has this potential suspension looming and DAllas' offensive line is slightly worse
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Jul 14, 2017 16:37
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Spoeank posted:They lost 120 TE targets but thats because Flacco gets a favorite target and obliterates them with targets (Boldin, Mason) I wouldn't look at the TEs specifically to soak up targets. They'll distribute to Maclin and Woodhead, mostly. The whole TE situation there is a M E S S. Yeah, I would expect like 90 targets max, but Watson could turn that into TE9-14 easily if there are red zone looks, and for that price, I'll take that all day. A lot has to break right, but he's got the best shot of any UDFA TE to be that out of nowhere guy, so I'm definitely watching him. I doubt he'll be rostered before like week 3 or 4 so there's plenty of time to let things shake out Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 16:41
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Crocket Gilmore will be a thing this year. Probably only for dfs purposes though.
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Jul 14, 2017 17:08
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Has anybody ever seen an analysis like this but for tight ends? These sort of conversations might be improved if we actually knew how easy it is to replace TE value off the waiver wire. I picked up Jordan Reed for free two years ago an it won me the league, but last year I went late on TE again and streaming was a goddamned wasteland.
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Jul 14, 2017 17:39
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Drunk Nerds posted:Lets debate zeke vs brown. I'll start with brown: The only thing that worries me about Zek is the suspension because losing your 3rd overall pick for X amount games could ruin an entire fantasy season. I think Dallas's defense will make up for the o-line changes. With more talent on the other side of the ball, it should increase touches for zek. Also, I live in Dallas and have friends in the sports radio industry. They've told me off the record stories of Zek getting caught smoking joints at out-door patio bars. I also literally ran into Zek at a bar where he was carrying a giant bottle of champagne. I was drunk and embarrassed myself by telling "Keep on doing you bro". He just looked at me weird and walked away without saying a word. I saw Tyron Smith at the same bar last year. That guy is ripped. He's huge and has less than 10% body fat. He was carrying around a whole bottle of Patron. RisqueBarber fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 17:47
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RisqueBarber posted:The only thing that worries me about Zek is the suspension because losing your 3rd overall pick for X amount games could ruin an entire fantasy season. I think Dallas's defense will make up for the o-line changes. With more talent on the other side of the ball, it should increase touches for zek. I hope you knocked it out of his hands and screamed "I'm counting on you, don't blow it. 3rd overall comes with responsibility!" That's the only way he'll learn
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Jul 14, 2017 17:56
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Just got an email from Footballguys. Looks like Zeke might get a short suspension.
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Jul 14, 2017 18:07
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Drunk Nerds posted:I hope you knocked it out of his hands and screamed "I'm counting on you, don't blow it. 3rd overall comes with responsibility!" That's the only way he'll learn Zeke suspended 4 games for beating up RisqueBarber. RisqueBarber: Alas, how terrible is wisdom when it brings no profit to the man that's wise!
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Jul 14, 2017 19:04
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Breaking news rich athlete consumes alcohol
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Jul 14, 2017 19:15
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The NFL is an ongoing experiment in what happens when you give millions of dollars to men in their early 20s, it's kind of hilarious if you think about it. e. Also this is gonna be Run DMF's breakout year, finally!
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Jul 14, 2017 19:20
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Leperflesh posted:The NFL is an ongoing experiment in what happens when you give millions of dollars to men in their early 20s, it's kind of hilarious if you think about it. That experiment has been going on in wall st for years.
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Jul 14, 2017 19:26
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Matt Zerella posted:That experiment has been going on in wall st for years. Yeah but with this one, every one of these young men are in a public spotlight. We get to actually watch it play out in real time!
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Jul 14, 2017 19:30
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The first 5-10 minutes of Chris Harris' podcast today is the must he's huffed his farts of all time holy FUCKIN poo poo
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Jul 14, 2017 23:25
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Spoeank posted:The first 5-10 minutes of Chris Harris' podcast today is the must he's huffed his farts of all time holy FUCKIN poo poo man, I listened to the previous one (w/ Denny Carter) and wasn't quite so full of hate for Harris, but I just listened to this and the hate is back in full force
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Jul 14, 2017 23:38
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Honestly, I don't know how these athletes can consume so much alcohol and still look like Gods amongst men. I can't hardly touch any without it making me fat. Bastards.
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Jul 14, 2017 23:39
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Spoeank posted:The first 5-10 minutes of Chris Harris' podcast today is the must he's huffed his farts of all time holy FUCKIN poo poo Is he a huge KD fan?
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Jul 14, 2017 23:53
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