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mcmagic posted:I've been leaving it in the board... It's great against some of their draws and horrible against others. Graveyard hate is super good against grixis shadow. In the mirror turning off a snap or kcommand while cantripping is huge value. If you're gonna play the world's greediest manabase you're going to lose to it on occasion, just gotta accept that. I played against grixis shadow with death and taxes a few weeks ago and they milled their own basic swamp so i proceeded to ghost quarter and tec edge them off black mana all game. guy got super salty lol
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Jul 17, 2017 15:07
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I'm not disputing that, it's just that intuitively, the odds of seeing random Cat Tribals and Temur Towers on the charts now that they don't have to compete with Turbo Fogs #2–170 should go up instead of down like SO claims. That's how combinatorics work, right? I, for one, am excited to see all the unplayable decks that bubble up to the results through sheer chance. 
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Jul 17, 2017 15:08
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little munchkin posted:Graveyard hate is super good against grixis shadow. In the mirror turning off a snap or kcommand while cantripping is huge value. I know D&T is going to destroy my mana but I'm pretty much accepting that that is going to be like a 35% matchup. But milling 2 exact cards off of Scour is definitely very bad luck heh.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:10
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mcmagic posted:I've been leaving it in the board... It's great against some of their draws and horrible against others. 0.06%, or (2/58) * (1/57) We're excluding two cards from the first pick, because it's a given that you cracked a fetch, and fetched a non-red land, so two cards are gone from the pool. We don't care which red land it mills first (so two cards out of 58), then the second hit is out of one fewer card pool, and can only hit one card. We don't subtract out cards in hand because theoretically you could have had one of those in hand and made this less crazy. These odds are from your opponent's view, having no knowledge of your hand. From your view, knowing you have no red mana in hand, it would be a little more likely depending on mulligans.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:13
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Devor posted:0.06%, or (2/58) * (1/57) lol Even worse than I thought.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:18
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mcmagic posted:I've been leaving it in the board... It's great against some of their draws and horrible against others. 52! / (2! * 50!) = (52*51) / 2 = 1386 possible combinations for top 2 cards. Divide by 2 for the different possible orderings of Vents and Crypt: 1386/2 = 663. 1/663 chance of that happening or .15% chance.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:18
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Sickening posted:I am sure its really hard. How could anyone not respect the rules knowledge of the judge system when l3's don't know how path to exile works. Had a level 2 judge at a modern tournament I went to yesterday tell the table next to me that Player A's CoCo resolved, putting Walking Ballista and Eternal Witness on the board, that he couldn't target Walking Ballista with E.Wit's ETB trigger. He still won that match and I was happy for him, because Player B was a total prick nitpicking every little loving thing like "did you announce your kitchen finks giving you 2 life when it persisted because if you didn't you don't gain the 2 life". Siivola posted:I'm not disputing that, it's just that intuitively, the odds of seeing random Cat Tribals and Temur Towers on the charts now that they don't have to compete with Turbo Fogs #2–170 should go up instead of down like SO claims. That's how combinatorics work, right? Good luck, the top 10 decks went down to top 5!
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Jul 17, 2017 15:24
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Count Bleck posted:He still won that match and I was happy for him, because Player B was a total prick nitpicking every little loving thing like "did you announce your kitchen finks giving you 2 life when it persisted because if you didn't you don't gain the 2 life". This isn't quite as malicious but when I was a wee lad and my friend was teaching me the game, he told me that if I forgot to untap something during my untap phase it would stay tapped until my next untap. Even today I'm super-deliberate during my untap phase, to the point where it probably annoys people.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:28
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Siivola posted:I'm not disputing that, it's just that intuitively, the odds of seeing random Cat Tribals and Temur Towers on the charts now that they don't have to compete with Turbo Fogs #2–170 should go up instead of down like SO claims. That's how combinatorics work, right? While you're technically correct, I highly doubt that WotC has good constraints for their combinatorics that will result in a nice curated list of 5-0 decks. What's probably going to happen is we're going to get a bunch of unoptimized T1-1.5 decks with slightly different card choices in the 75. Ultimately people will probably just stop giving a poo poo about MTGO results and lean a lot harder on GPs, the PT, and SCG Opens for their data.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:37
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ThePeavstenator posted:While you're technically correct, I highly doubt that WotC has good constraints for their combinatorics that will result in a nice curated list of 5-0 decks. What's probably going to happen is we're going to get a bunch of unoptimized T1-1.5 decks with slightly different card choices in the 75. Ultimately people will probably just stop giving a poo poo about MTGO results and lean a lot harder on GPs, the PT, and SCG Opens for their data. Which is kind of brutal for commander, pauper, legacy and vintage.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:40
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Boxman posted:Good stuff
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Jul 17, 2017 15:43
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ThePeavstenator posted:While you're technically correct, I highly doubt that WotC has good constraints for their combinatorics that will result in a nice curated list of 5-0 decks. What's probably going to happen is we're going to get a bunch of unoptimized T1-1.5 decks with slightly different card choices in the 75. Ultimately people will probably just stop giving a poo poo about MTGO results and lean a lot harder on GPs, the PT, and SCG Opens for their data.  I think the original article specified a difference of ten cards, but I don't know what that means. Is taking out four good duals and replacing them with four bad duals a difference of one or four cards?  Ultimately, you're probably right.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:43
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Siivola posted:The best kind of correct. If wizards is really dumb it's 8 cards, 4 cards are missing and there's 4 new ones.
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Jul 17, 2017 15:47
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Siivola posted:I'm not disputing that, it's just that intuitively, the odds of seeing random Cat Tribals and Temur Towers on the charts now that they don't have to compete with Turbo Fogs #2–170 should go up instead of down like SO claims. That's how combinatorics work, right? Turbofog is still an amazing deck in this iteration of standard. The only real tough matchup right now is that loving mill deck which I still haven't been able to beat yet.
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Jul 17, 2017 16:23
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Reading that SO article and remembering that the Felidar Guardian combo was pointed out almost immediately after the card had been spoiled. Reducing the data wouldn't have prevented the deck at all, it just would have given the people playing it first an extra week or two of free wins..
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Jul 17, 2017 16:25
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Did you guys hear about the piece of poo poo who showed up to a big magic store in NJ with highly visible Nazi tattoos and was asked to leave? People are actually defending him on Facebook lol. this community has a lot of scum in it.
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Jul 17, 2017 16:26
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Death Bot posted:Reading that SO article and remembering that the Felidar Guardian combo was pointed out almost immediately after the card had been spoiled. This reminded me of the leaked Ixalan card that goes infinite on itself if played on an empty board.
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Jul 17, 2017 16:27
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mcmagic posted:Did you guys hear about the piece of poo poo who showed up to a big magic store in NJ with highly visible Nazi tattoos and was asked to leave? People are actually defending him on Facebook lol. this community has a lot of scum in it. People love to think that the first amendment means you can say whatever you want without any consequence at all.
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Jul 17, 2017 16:28
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mcmagic posted:Did you guys hear about the piece of poo poo who showed up to a big magic store in NJ with highly visible Nazi tattoos and was asked to leave? People are actually defending him on Facebook lol. this community has a lot of scum in it. link?
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Jul 17, 2017 16:39
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Looks like the store owner took down the thread...
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Jul 17, 2017 16:46
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Count Bleck posted:Had a level 2 judge at a modern tournament I went to yesterday tell the table next to me that Player A's CoCo resolved, putting Walking Ballista and Eternal Witness on the board, that he couldn't target Walking Ballista with E.Wit's ETB trigger. I'll admit that I would have gotten this one wrong if I had to guess how it worked, although it was pretty clear-cut once I actually looked it up.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:38
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Speaking of judge Qs, if I put two Fraying Sanity on someone then the second trigger will take the first trigger into account, right? So like Put two Fraying Sanity on opponent. Tome Scour them (mill 5). Both Sanity triggers go on the stack. First trigger sees 5 cards milled, resolves for X=5. Second trigger sees 10 cards milled (5 from Tome Scour, 5 from first Sanity trigger), resolves for X=10. is how it would go down?
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Jul 17, 2017 17:45
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mcmagic posted:Did you guys hear about the piece of poo poo who showed up to a big magic store in NJ with highly visible Nazi tattoos and was asked to leave? People are actually defending him on Facebook lol. this community has a lot of scum in it. So much for the tolerant left. C-Euro posted:Speaking of judge Qs, if I put two Fraying Sanity on someone then the second trigger will take the first trigger into account, right? So like Yep.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:47
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C-Euro posted:Speaking of judge Qs, if I put two Fraying Sanity on someone then the second trigger will take the first trigger into account, right? So like Yep From gatherer quote:The value of X is determined only as Fraying Sanity’s triggered ability resolves. For example, if three Fraying Sanity Auras are attached to one player who had four cards put into his or her graveyard this turn, X will be four for the first ability to resolve, eight for the second, and sixteen for the third.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:47
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BRB building Esper Mill with Zur the Enchanter.
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Jul 17, 2017 18:12
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ThePeavstenator posted:52! / (2! * 50!) = (52*51) / 2 = 1386 possible combinations for top 2 cards. Combinations don't care about order so it's actually 1/1386.
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Jul 17, 2017 18:12
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Lottery of Babylon posted:Combinations don't care about order so it's actually 1/1386. oops, i'm dumb  mcmagic posted:Did you guys hear about the piece of poo poo who showed up to a big magic store in NJ with highly visible Nazi tattoos and was asked to leave? People are actually defending him on Facebook lol. this community has a lot of scum in it. The fact that we're hearing about it is good though. These fucks aren't able to operate silently as much anymore, like that Nazi store owner that got his WPN status revoked.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:06
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ThePeavstenator posted:oops, i'm dumb IDK I look at it differently. I think people like that are emboldened to walk around in public because of what is going on nationally.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:15
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Siivola posted:The best kind of correct. Whichever one means Aaron Forsythe has to defend the development team's complete failure on twitter less.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:26
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Is there anything preventing what mtggoldfish used to do with bots watching replays or did they just not want them published?
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Jul 17, 2017 20:28
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muon posted:Is there anything preventing what mtggoldfish used to do with bots watching replays or did they just not want them published? WotC asked them to not publish data. They could probably publish it anyway but the bots would probably just get banned.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:31
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wotc responds on the FNM promo stuff. The tl;dr is that they're targeting a more casual audience and don't really see a difference in attendance based on promo quality
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Jul 17, 2017 20:40
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If they don't see a difference why change it 
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Jul 17, 2017 20:45
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Elyv posted:wotc responds on the FNM promo stuff. The tl;dr is that they're targeting a more casual audience and don't really see a difference in attendance based on promo quality So they've taken a cue from Dear Leader and moved on to bald faced lying.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:46
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Elyv posted:wotc responds on the FNM promo stuff. The tl;dr is that they're targeting a more casual audience and don't really see a difference in attendance based on promo quality ****ing casuals
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Jul 17, 2017 20:46
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j/k gently caress you WotC, please stop being incompetent
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Jul 17, 2017 20:47
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Elyv posted:wotc responds on the FNM promo stuff. The tl;dr is that they're targeting a more casual audience and don't really see a difference in attendance based on promo quality I just don't believe casual players would want some stupid token over an actual card they can play with.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:48
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ThePeavstenator posted:WotC asked them to not publish data. They could probably publish it anyway but the bots would probably just get banned. Gotcha. I'll take a look at getting a similar set up going and publishing the data here when I get the chance.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:48
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I mean, I don't think anyone believes the driving force behind FNM is promos. The driving force of fnm is that its casual, its cheap, and its consistent. You go because you want to loving play. The promos were just something that added a little more to the urge to feeling to go. Sometimes when the promos were really good it added a lot of value. This article is complete horseshit though and further shows how much of a clownshow management is at WOTC. AN IDIOT posted:The data just doesn't bear that out. While I can't give you the exact numbers, I can tell you this—in June, when Aether Hub was the FNM promo, attendance was not noticeably different than January, when Noose Constrictor was the promo. What's more, we've found this pattern repeated for years. FNM attendance is generally not noticeably tied to the community's online response, positive or negative, to the specific promo card. A few people recognize this, but it's understandably difficult to see that when your frame of view is your local store or stores. We know that individual store attendance levels can ebb and flow for any number of reasons, but on a macro level, there's just not a discernable difference. You mean when standard is bad people don't want to play? I am willing to put up major money that promos do indeed drive variation in player attendance.
Sickening fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Jul 17, 2017 |
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Jul 17, 2017 20:53
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Sickening posted:I mean, I don't think anyone believes the driving force behind FNM is promos. The driving force of fnm is that its casual, its cheap, and its consistent. You go because you want to loving play. The promos were just something that added a little more to the urge to feeling to go. Sometimes when the promos were really good it added a lot of value. it makes LITERALLY NO SENSE. They are going to be printing a foil card to give away at FNM's. It's just a card that is universally less desirable than the previous ones.
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Jul 17, 2017 20:55
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