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The reason McConnell is doing all this procedural bullshit is because senators in Medicaid-dependent states do fear getting voted out of office, otherwise they'd just repeal it and look out their bathroom windows laughing and wiping their asses with donor money as they watch the poor die in the street. That's why McConnell is doing his best to lie to those senators and trick them into thinking they can vote for it without consequences. Last week it was "don't worry, someone will reverse the Medicaid cuts before they happen, they'll just have to!" But that didn't work so this week is "just vote to move it to conference and it will come out with everything you want" at which point the conference committee will pass a poor-killing bill and Ryan and McConnell will say "if you don't vote to kill your constituents starting four years from now, the House will pass the skinny repeal and it will be your fault when the exchanges blow up immediately. Just pass it and we have four years to fix it, or don't and everything goes to poo poo right now."
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Jul 28, 2017 00:12
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Zikan posted:it's a super obvious punt and other then Collins and murkowski you don't want to be branded as killing the repeal because it funded abortions well what graham and mccain could have done is privately told mcconnell that skinny repeal had to be madate-only, plus whatever else they needed purely to get reconciliation-able, but their actions just don't make any sense at all to me from any avenue other than they're really hoping they can blame ryan for voting no, but they're not even doing that well
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Jul 28, 2017 00:13
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evilweasel posted:what i don't understand is why graham and mccain can't figure that out but my guess is they are terrified of it leaking they demanded PP funding or the like - which is the main problem with most poison pills, you have to get the senate to vote for something they hate that could be used against them, which is exactly what they're doing and I realized that as i typed that and so i'm just back to i don't even know what the gently caress anymore I think Graham and McCain know what McConnell is doing and they agree because they want the Medicaid cuts. I don't think the plan is to actually pass the skinny bill, I think the plan is to trick people like Capito into passing a "placeholder" then come up with an absurdly harsh conference committee bill and then threaten to pass the skinny bill into law with the House if the moderates don't cave on Medicaid. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Jul 28, 2017 |
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Jul 28, 2017 00:15
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evilweasel posted:basically, shut the gently caress up with your idiot conspiracy theory I don't think Trump is going to declare himself god emperor and cancel elections or some poo poo.
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Jul 28, 2017 00:16
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VitalSigns posted:I think Graham and McCain know what McConnell is doing and they agree because they want the Medicaid cuts. The moderates are not going to cave on medicaid, they're forming their own caucus. They're the reason any of the extra Medicaid money made it in.
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Jul 28, 2017 00:17
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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:The moderates are not going to cave on medicaid, they're forming their own caucus. They're the reason any of the extra Medicaid money made it in. They might if they're dumb enough to pass the skinny bill, and then Ryan and McConnell turn around and say "now you have to pass the conference committee's Medicaid cuts or the House will blow up the exchanges"
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Jul 28, 2017 00:20
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they're really incompetent and they're laying the groundwork to blame the House when this lovely bill becomes law that's really all there is to it the moderates want skinny repeal to pass because the biggest thing they fear is losing medicaid in their states. they are sighing with relief that they can put "repeal obamacare" on the board without actually killing their constituents as far as the PP stuff, i don't think it's byrdable. the whole thing is such a loving cluster. mcconnell's game is obvious. he was trying to twist arms to get the BCRA, but he just couldn't do it. so he used the "promise everything to everyone" technique to get the MTP, hoping that the increased pressure of post-MTP voting would bring some people around. that didn't work either, in fact he got MORE defections. so now he's hoping that they can send something to conference and the increased pressure of an up-or-down vote on the conference bill will be enough. except 1) that gives the bill tons of time to get even more unpopular and 2) the house can and will just pass the skinny repeal and blame the senate, which they would be absolutely correct to do. so it's not actually going to do what mcconnell wants. VitalSigns posted:They might if they're dumb enough to pass the skinny bill, and then Ryan and McConnell turn around and say "now you have to pass the conference committee's Medicaid cuts or the House will blow up the exchanges" they don't care about the exchanges, in fact even absent action by congress the exchanges are in trouble since the aca wasn't super well designed in the first place and trump is sabotaging them. they care about medicaid, medicaid, medicaid.
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Jul 28, 2017 00:20
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VitalSigns posted:They might if they're dumb enough to pass the skinny bill, and then Ryan and McConnell turn around and say "now you have to pass the conference committee's Medicaid cuts or the House will blow up the exchanges" why would the moderates cave on that? the skinny repeal isn't that effective a weapon against moderates, who are the ones worried about medicaid - and the terrible bill will probably blow up the exchanges too.
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Jul 28, 2017 00:23
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No they care about the exchanges, if a bunch of people and small businesses lose their individual market plans that will be disastrous for Republicans next year.
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Jul 28, 2017 00:24
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evilweasel posted:why would the moderates cave on that? the skinny repeal isn't that effective a weapon against moderates, who are the ones worried about medicaid - and the terrible bill will probably blow up the exchanges too. My guess is that the skinny bill would backfire immediately and destroy the markets, whereas the Medicaid cuts won't start for 2-4 years so McConnell can kick the can down the road again and assure them someone will have to fix it before it happens. You're right that the terrible bill will probably blow up the exchanges too but idk I suppose it will have something in it like the six-month waiting period or the +33% surcharge or w/e that the senators can cling to and hope will keep the markets from falling apart instantly.
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Jul 28, 2017 00:31
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VitalSigns posted:I think Graham and McCain know what McConnell is doing and they agree because they want the Medicaid cuts. I thought the post conference bill still had to pass both houses?
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Jul 28, 2017 00:31
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They don't care about the exchanges; the GOP has been trying to blow them up since 2010. They've done a drat good job of it too.evilweasel posted:oh they could easily do this While this would be an option, they hosed this avenue up already over lunch, adding PP defunding to the skinny repeal and then working with the parliamentarian to okay it. With Collins and Murkowski out, McConnell has to rely on getting the entirety of the Paul/Cruz/Lee/Johnson contingent and I don't think they would accept PP defunding being approved by the parliamentarian but then yanked out of the final bill.
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Jul 28, 2017 00:34
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I thought the post conference bill still had to pass both houses? the house can pass the "skinny" instead, sending it to Trump without further action by the Senate (or chance for the Senate to block it)
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Jul 28, 2017 00:39
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I thought the post conference bill still had to pass both houses? I mean this is just my guess about what McConnell is doing. I'm supposing this is the plan: 1. Get the Senate to pass the skinny repeal as a "placeholder" with assurances it won't become law, it will go to conference where we'll write the magical unicorn bill that everyone likes 2. House Tea Party psychos write a horrible-rear end conference bill that delays the worst stuff a few years 3. House passes the conference bill 4. Ryan says "okay Senate, pass this conference bill or we'll pass the skinny bill and there's nothing you can do to stop it from becoming law" while McConnell whispers "don't worry all those cuts are delayed so we can fix it later, but oh no if we don't pass something now the skinny bill will become law and you'll be hosed!" The Phlegmatist posted:They don't care about the exchanges; the GOP has been trying to blow them up since 2010. They've done a drat good job of it too. E: Only while Obama was president and it could be blamed on him. And even then when it started to look like King v Burwell might succeed (that dumb case that used a deliberate misreading of the law to argue that people in states with federal exchanges aren't eligible for subsidies), the Republicans panicked and started talking about passing a fix for that if the subsidies suddenly disappeared. Now Republicans control the government and if they gently caress things up Americans will blame them. E2: Also remember Republicans dropped their lawsuit against making the risk-sharing payments the instant they won because they didn't want to gently caress up the markets while they were in charge, they wanted Obama to take the heat VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Jul 28, 2017 |
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Jul 28, 2017 00:40
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VitalSigns posted:Yes. now the plan is to dispense with step 3, and Ryan just says "if you don't pass the conference bill we're passing the skinny repeal"
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Jul 28, 2017 00:41
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Can someone explain to me why GOP senators are suddenly so "concerned" about skinny repeal? They seemed fine with the more fleshed out and objectively much more terrible proposals!
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Jul 28, 2017 01:00
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MooselanderII posted:Can someone explain to me why GOP senators are suddenly so "concerned" about skinny repeal? They seemed fine with the more fleshed out and objectively much more terrible proposals! Because it only breaks ACA, without trying to mend it, which is the worst of both worlds I think Cassidy-Graham is ultimately what will pass (via conference)
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Jul 28, 2017 01:03
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Arkane posted:Because it only breaks ACA, without trying to mend it, which is the worst of both worlds Not a chance. Lee, Paul and Moran won't bite and neither will Murkowski or Collins.
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Jul 28, 2017 01:15
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Here's what happens: they pass skinny repeal, it goes to the house, the conference committee spits out AHCA/BCRA 3.0, it dies and the House passes skinny repeal. It's the sequester all over again and won't end any differently.
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Jul 28, 2017 01:16
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MooselanderII posted:Can someone explain to me why GOP senators are suddenly so "concerned" about skinny repeal? They seemed fine with the more fleshed out and objectively much more terrible proposals! You're thinking like a normal person who expects the goal of the legislation is to fix healthcare. Think about it from the perspective of an evil greedy money-worshipping Gollum-like creature: the skinny repeal doesn't cut any taxes or slash any healthcare funding that can be used to cut more taxes later. It pisses off everyone in the country, literally everyone, for no gain at all. No one benefits, not the people, certainly not the insurance companies, not even rich fucks benefit from this. Also it's easier to sell a big complicated bill as "reform" with the usual bullshit about how the invisible hand will give everyone affordable care once the government is out of the way blah blah blah whereas the skinny bill is just obviously stupid and totally inadequate and there's really no way to spin that.
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Jul 28, 2017 01:20
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:It's the sequester all over again and won't end any differently. Ding ding ding ding ding what do we have for our winner?
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Jul 28, 2017 01:24
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remember the supercommittee? let's do it again but with all of the conferees bad faith morons with no idea how to govern, instead of just half of them this will end differently!!! i swear!!!
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Jul 28, 2017 01:24
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Oh God the sequester, I forgot about that. "Let's pass something so horrible we'll have to come together and agree on something better." .... "Okay done. Now come work with us in good faith, Republicans, or there will be a bunch of bad consequences for Obama, hey where are you going? Guys? I'm sure they'll be right back."
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Jul 28, 2017 01:26
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VitalSigns posted:E: Only while Obama was president and it could be blamed on him. And even then when it started to look like King v Burwell might succeed (that dumb case that used a deliberate misreading of the law to argue that people in states with federal exchanges aren't eligible for subsidies), the Republicans panicked and started talking about passing a fix for that if the subsidies suddenly disappeared. Now Republicans control the government and if they gently caress things up Americans will blame them. Continued abeyance on King v Burwell harms the markets the same amount as if they didn't halt the case; some insurers are submitting dual-filings this year, one with CSR and one without, others are baking it into their premium increases already. if the GOP wanted to stabilize the individual market, they'd just whip up an appropriations bill for the CSR payments and that would be that. But for now, they're not, and insurers are getting pissed with all the uncertainty. e: and from a re-election POV there's really no downside to continuing CSR payments because few people even understand what the hell they are, and they're already part of the budget forecast The Phlegmatist fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Jul 28, 2017 |
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Jul 28, 2017 01:27
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okay trying to follow along is funnily enough giving me a migraine; as of right now whats the most likely outcome in regards to how hosed we'll be
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Jul 28, 2017 02:18
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Craig K posted:okay trying to follow along is funnily enough giving me a migraine; as of right now whats the most likely outcome in regards to how hosed we'll be hosed enough to tank the economy again.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:19
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Craig K posted:okay trying to follow along is funnily enough giving me a migraine; as of right now whats the most likely outcome in regards to how hosed we'll be
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Jul 28, 2017 02:20
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Craig K posted:okay trying to follow along is funnily enough giving me a migraine; as of right now whats the most likely outcome in regards to how hosed we'll be The most statistically likely outcome is heat death as the entire universe reaches a uniform temperature, entropy is maximized, life cannot exist, and all that remains is the random motions of an endless sea of homogeneous particles in every direction, forever.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:23
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VitalSigns posted:The most statistically likely outcome is heat death as the entire universe reaches a uniform temperature, entropy is maximized, life cannot exist, and all that remains is the random motions of an endless sea of homogeneous particles in every direction, forever. Is that assuming skinny repeal, or...?
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Jul 28, 2017 02:27
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I think the thing I'm looking forward to the most are the pieces filed by incredulous coastal reporters traveling through the midwest in 2018, conducting interviews on the theme of "Well, after the insurance folded, grandma died, and I had to get my leg amputated, what with my diabetes and all, but all them politicians are equally rotten. The man on the TV said if we let them slimy Democrats in, you won't be able to say the name of the Lord in school no more."
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Jul 28, 2017 02:39
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Wow has the Trump administration and the Republican congress's unbelievable incompetence turned you into a Democrat, DR? Last year I remember you complaining nonstop about Crooked Hillary and her illegal server she was using to e-mail classified information to Benjamin Ghazi, I just assumed you voted R in Congress and then Trump or maybe McMuffin for president.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:43
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trump's base will never abandon him, but not every trump voter is in his base, and considering how tenuous his victory was it won't take many defections to collapse the GOP coalition. destroying the entire concept of health insurance in America will probably have an impact.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:49
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im really looking forward to the entire structure of american healthcare changing every 4-8 years, forever
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Jul 28, 2017 02:52
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/890741405789941760 Yea she's totally doing it
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Jul 28, 2017 02:59
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Endorph posted:im really looking forward to the entire structure of american healthcare changing every 4-8 years, forever That was guaranteed to be the outcome of ACA anyway. Even the public option would've been burned to the ground by the GOP since it would have been under the domain of HHS. Happily, assuming the skinny repeal winds up becoming law, the most politically advantageous move for Dems will be single payer. Reinstating the individual mandate when the markets have been melting down for a while is not going to be a good option.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:00
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The Phlegmatist posted:Happily, assuming the skinny repeal winds up becoming law, the most politically advantageous move for Dems will be single payer. Reinstating the individual mandate when the markets have been melting down for a while is not going to be a good option. If the Dems run on single-payer in 2018 and fail to retake the House or Senate...I don't think it ever happens We're too far gone as a country
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Jul 28, 2017 03:06
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VitalSigns posted:Wow has the Trump administration and the Republican congress's unbelievable incompetence turned you into a Democrat, DR?
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Jul 28, 2017 03:07
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I gotta say, making it so that the people getting hurt by this are the core middle class constituency instead of the poor is certainly a bold strategy.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:18
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Dead Reckoning posted:Your memory is as terrible as your posting. Maybe *searches userid:179932 "server"* Whoa that's a lot of results like this about Crooked Hillary Dead Reckoning posted:While that is one possible interpretation, people are much less willing to indulge the convenient fiction that setting up a private server and storing a bunch of classified on it was just a big misunderstanding, that you were advised by your (unindicted) subordinates that it was OK, that you were confused by the classification headings, that none of this constituted a deliberate attempt to evade government rules, when you aren't a senior administration official and party power player. Seriously though has Trump turned you into a Democrat? Or did you vote for Crooked Hillary and her felonious secret server and Democratic party lackeys in November too? Just curious, not trying to start a fight or anything.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:20
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How much time are we likely to have if/when the senate passes this filth? Is there a minimum time limit on conference or will this poo poo be done by the time I wake up for work?
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Jul 28, 2017 03:21
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