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skeleton warrior
Nov 12, 2016


Is it a good sign that there are elements of the PSUV standing up and talking about how corrupt Maduro and the referendum vote are? Up to this point, I've been worried that the only real response available to Venezuelans was "I guess we storm the barricades and hope hunger deflects bullets" but if the PSUV starts to split apart maybe there's hope that the worst elements would take their money and run and let the country try to recover? Or am I being completely pollyannaish?

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fnox
May 19, 2013



BeigeJacket posted:

I'm assuming the PSUV either ignores this completely, or calls them yanqui devils or whatever?

Someone please explain to me what happens next after this vote. When will this Constitutional Assembly meet? Is parliament sitting as normal till then?

Obviously the government will ignore any allegations of fraud and will move on with the constituent assembly. Thing is, they're meant to session in parliament, which is currently being occupied by the actual national assembly. So the government will of course violently force them out.

When? Could be today, could be tomorrow, we don't know yet.

skeleton warrior posted:

Is it a good sign that there are elements of the PSUV standing up and talking about how corrupt Maduro and the referendum vote are? Up to this point, I've been worried that the only real response available to Venezuelans was "I guess we storm the barricades and hope hunger deflects bullets" but if the PSUV starts to split apart maybe there's hope that the worst elements would take their money and run and let the country try to recover? Or am I being completely pollyannaish?

There's a branch of PSUV that is at odds with Maduro and those are the ideological chavistas, the ones who legitimately believe the whole Socialism in the 21st Century crap. I didn't think they existed, but they do, and it's likely they'll outlast the government.

fnox fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Aug 2, 2017

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

BeigeJacket posted:

Someone please explain to me what happens next after this vote. When will this Constitutional Assembly meet? Is parliament sitting as normal till then?

They'll hold the constituent assembly, but after that I don't think anyone can explain that to you, not even if you had Maduro, Diosdado, and Freddy Guevara's personal cell phone numbers. Actually, maybe Diosdado knows.

Feinne
Oct 9, 2007

When you fall, get right back up again.
Yeah I don't think anyone has any idea what the hell is exactly going to come out of the constituent assembly beyond 'it's gonna really suck'.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

skeleton warrior posted:

Is it a good sign that there are elements of the PSUV standing up and talking about how corrupt Maduro and the referendum vote are?

(EDIT: Whoops. I'm a dummy. I misread your question. Sorry!)

Yes. Lots of signs.

1. Attorney general Luisa Ortega Diaz, who is the head of the Public Ministry and of the administration of justice in Venezuela, has called the Constituent Assembly election "a joke" and that its results mean that "every political right is now in danger". Ortega Diaz was appointed attorney general by Chavez in 2007, and served faithfully in his government until his death in 2013.

2. One of the people who runs the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) (which runs elections in the country) said yesterday that he could not state in good conscience that the election was not rigged because the CNE "bent" and "eliminated" many of its anti-voter fraud safety checks. Let me restate this, because it is important: One of the heads of the institution that ran the election has told us that it could have been rigged.

3. Three PSUV deputies defected from the government ranks at the National Assembly and joined the opposition. They did this because they do not agree that the Constituent Assembly vote took place at all, since Maduro violated the law when he decreed it instead of putting the matter to a referendum. The deputies stressed that they are socialists and chavistas first and foremost.

These are only the most recent example of regime institutions/officials coming out and condemning the Constituent Assembly as the fraud that it is.

What these examples tell us is something that has been obvious from the very beginning: it is possible to be a leftist, a chavista, and at the same time speak out against tyranny when it rears its ugly head. Being a leftist doesn't mean that you have to blindly support any dictator who shows up just because he says the right words.

To actually answer your question

Yes! It is a good sign. Aside from killing and jailing people who disagree with him and cancelling elections, Maduro is keeping himself afloat by appealing to the idea that he's a socialist, a leftist, a chavista, etc. This gets him support both at home and abroad (see: this thread!). The more government people who come out and say, "Wait a minute! I'm a leftist and what Maduro is doing isn't what being a leftist is about", the more likely he is to lose support.

Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Aug 2, 2017

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

JailTrump posted:

There was an article last night from the BBC that at 5:30 there had been 3 million votes cast then somehow magically we got 8 million by the time voting ended.

Hahaha. How the gently caress do you cast 5 million votes in less than 3 hours?

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1AI0AL

Meanwhile Colombia has extended legal entry rights for Venezuelans who enter and provided them access to the subsidized healthcare system and employment rights.

http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/nacional/canciller-anuncio-que-colombia-seguira-apoyando-los-venezolanos-que-migren-articulo-706090

US should interfere by giving Columbia and other S American countries sums of money relative to the number of Venezuelan refugees they take in. Luckily we avoid the whole sectarian religious / ethnic tensions nonsense of the ME so the whole process should go a lot smoother should things go even further south.

JailTrump
Jul 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
Lol Venezuela kicked out 20 Smartmatic Engineers just before they announced that the vote had been rigged.

Jesus Christ.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

BeigeJacket posted:

I'm assuming the PSUV either ignores this completely, or calls them yanqui devils or whatever?

Someone please explain to me what happens next after this vote. When will this Constitutional Assembly meet? Is parliament sitting as normal till then?

The Constituent Assembly could begin to meet as early as today. Parliament held a session yesterday (and I believe it's holding one today) as per usual. It is a near certainty that the Constituent Assembly will want to meet inside the National Assembly building because according to the Constitution its power now supersedes that of the legislature (and every other branch of government and institution). The goal with the Constituent Assembly all along has been for Maduro/the PSUV faction running the show right now to rule by decree with unlimited power while being able to point to the Constitution and say, "Look! It's all in here! We're playing by the rules!".

The fact that there is now overwhelming evidence (both from the regime's own electoral authority and now from the company that runs the voting machines) that the vote was rigged makes this fraud all the more evident.

It's likely that Maduro and co. will likely point to all of this and blame El Imperio for continuing its relentless attack against the dignified and sovereign people of Venezuela.

Pharohman777
Jan 14, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
So if you want to whet your teeth in arguement or stare at the Tankie herd being morons, https://www.reddit.com/r/socialism is a good place to go.
These people believe everything Telesur says.

https://www.reddit.com/r/socialism/comments/6qxvym/tens_of_thousands_in_the_streets_in_venezuela/
People were saying they want maduro in power because venezuelan socialism was botched so badly that an imperialist right wing dictator being installed by the CIA is inevitable if the PSUV is removed from power... ignoring the majority leftist MUD or any other facts
Apparently they still think that venezuelan oil is what the 'imperialist' US is after. During a fracking boom in the US that has crashed the oil market with oil much easier to refine than venezuelas.

I got alerted to the above thread by https://www.reddit.com/r/CringeAnarchy/, which is a good place to find and laugh at idiot tankies and extreme leftists.

BeigeJacket
Jul 21, 2005

Eh, all those types seem to have gotten bored and moved on (except bob)

So the thread can be good again (except bob)

Lets not obsess over these guys.

fnox
May 19, 2013



https://twitter.com/EfectoCocuyo/status/892796927686975488

This is the problem with the MUD, we just discovered the government has committed one of the largest cases of electoral fraud in history, yet still dipshits from AD, PJ and UNT are still talking about local and regional elections with the same CNE. How loving blind do you have to be?

Gnumonic
Dec 11, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 10 hours!
Been lurking this thread a while, and I have a question: Even if Maduro resigned and the PSUV gave up power tomorrow, isn't Venezuela still completely hosed within a year or two when the country runs out of currency reserves and defaults? It seems impossible that even a well-meaning government could significantly increase oil revenue or diversify the economy enough to pay for sufficient imports while meeting debt obligations, and given that the country is so dependent upon imports I can't imagine that whoever is in charge will be able to govern at all without the ability to procure food/medicine or pay off the military/police.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

at that point the government would at least admit that there is a crisis and let international aid in to prevent starvation and pandemics

yes i realize this is an incredibly low bar, the maduro government is that bad

Aethernet
Jan 28, 2009

This is the Captain...

Our glorious political masters have, in their wisdom, decided to form an alliance with a rag-tag bunch of freedom fighters right when the Federation has us at a tactical disadvantage. Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in the Feds firing on our vessels...

Damn you Huxley!

Grimey Drawer
As another lurker, now that the anti-imperialism parade has wound down, I'd like to express my appreciation for all the journalism that Chuck is doing, and for the perspectives of Actual Venezuelans in this thread. Our (UK) media only rarely reports on your country, and this thread offers much more granular insights.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
The head of the CNE, Tibisay Lucena, just held a press conference in which she doubled down on the fraud. I don't have links because the press conference just ended, but she said the SmartMatic revelations are not true and threatened to sue the company. Friendly reminder that SmartMatic has run elections in Venezuela since 2004 and owns the voting machines and all of the machines and software that calculate total votes. SmartMatic has hard, irrefutable data and the CNE just said "Nope, nope, the sky is purple, I don't care what you say".

I'm not sure if the SmartMatic press release was linked yet or not, but here it is just in case.

It is damming. There can be no doubt now that the Constituent Assembly election was a complete fraud. The release says that SmartMatic has provided machines for elections in Venezuela since 2004, and that it has never once disputed the results because it has always been able to confirm that the figures provided by the CNE correspond with the hard data that it has from its machines.

The press release that I linked explains that the voting machines have several lawyers of fraud detection and alerts that are "impossible to circumvent", and that the machine makes it immediately obvious to observers when something is amiss. The problem for this election is that there were no opposition or independent observers, so while the machines were raising the fraud alarm the regime observers simply ignored it. From the press release:

quote:

Based on the robustness of our system, we know, without any doubt, that the turn out of the recent election for a National Constituent Assembly was manipulated. It is important to highlight that similar manipulations are made in manual elections in many countries, but because of the lack of electronic security and auditing safeguards, they go unnoticed.
The company says that the CNE obviously had access to the total number of votes cast because the machines (about 24,000 of them) printed out those results for the regime officials. However, there is a key "vulnerability" in this system: the person(s) who gets the actual result can simply lie about it, which is what happened on Sunday:

quote:

A vulnerability of any election that is clearly identified is that the consolidated results report that the system produces at the National Tabulation Center at the end of Election Day can be ignored by the authorities in charge of running the election and that altered results can be announced in its place.

Gnumonic posted:

Been lurking this thread a while, and I have a question: Even if Maduro resigned and the PSUV gave up power tomorrow, isn't Venezuela still completely hosed within a year or two when the country runs out of currency reserves and defaults? It seems impossible that even a well-meaning government could significantly increase oil revenue or diversify the economy enough to pay for sufficient imports while meeting debt obligations, and given that the country is so dependent upon imports I can't imagine that whoever is in charge will be able to govern at all without the ability to procure food/medicine or pay off the military/police.

Yes, this is correct. Venezuela has been in deep, deep trouble for many years, and it will take a generation to undo the damage that has been done. Some opposition leaders get way too hopeful and sometimes say that it'll be a matter of years before things are better again, but I don't think this is the case. Chavez and Maduro destroyed the country's productive apparatus. The fact that the PSUV has looted PDVSA to the bone is why oil production is in decline and infrastructure is collapsing. These people have taken everything that isn't bolted down and salted the earth.

Aethernet posted:

As another lurker, now that the anti-imperialism parade has wound down, I'd like to express my appreciation for all the journalism that Chuck is doing, and for the perspectives of Actual Venezuelans in this thread. Our (UK) media only rarely reports on your country, and this thread offers much more granular insights.
Thanks for keeping up with the thread! I'm happy to hear that you've found it interesting.

Feinne
Oct 9, 2007

When you fall, get right back up again.
I feel like rebuilding step one is going to have to be re-establishing some semblance of law and order, without that everything else just gets so much harder. Fixing the PDVSA for one is going to involve bringing in skilled outside help to deal with the scale of the task and the skills drain the Maduro regime has helped create. Those people are going to need to feel safe to be in the country without the risk of being robbed or kidnapped or whatever other horrible fate might befall a relatively wealthy foreigner with people to miss them.

JailTrump
Jul 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
There are paths to rebuilding. Primarily Venezuela needs to restabilize their currency first and foremost.

Probably by dollarizing the entire country as Ecuador did. That would probably be the widest and best initial solution as oil prices are pegged to the dollar and Venezuela's ability to import and export is always going to be based on the Dollar. It would also completely wipe out any black market and strengthen their trade with their primary providers of goods. Colombia, USA and Brazil.

Then they will have to resolve the agricultural crisis. That's going involve rebuilding almost the entire agricultural infrastructure of the country. And they will have the same task when it comes to oil infrastructures.

Following this crime would be the next big priority. You will have to completely rebuild, retrain and rearm the police force. The Venezuelan will have to enact strict laws including curfews and reform it's entire court and prison system. I reckon there will need to be some kind of accelerated prison sentencing system put in place as well.

And once those are taken care of you actually have to fix the employment and economy side of things. Which is a big problem because rebuilding business is not going to be easy given the circumstances.

There are so many empty commercial buildings. So much expropriated equipment and indebted entities due to lack of dollars that it will take years to clear up.

This could all take longer than 10 years if not 20. You don't do this stuff overnight. Not well anyways.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
And meanwhile, the pendulum of death that is climate change keeps on swinging.

ugh its Troika
May 2, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
On top of that, fixing it so the prisons arn't the private fiefs of gang lords would probably be a good idea.

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Well I have a very bad news reminder for you guys, because the PSUV mortgaged the only card you guys were left holding: they took out $2.8 billion worth of bonds to Goldman Sachs at the beginning of June at a 70% discount rate that will mature in 2022, and those bonds were issued through the PDVSA, which means that in 2022 Goldman Sachs, knowing you can't possibly pay it, is going to start confiscating Citgo stations, refineries, and oil tankers and your shipments of oil after having paid 30% of what they're worth. They sold your future out to American vulture capitalists for pennies on the dollar.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Sergg posted:

Well I have a very bad news reminder for you guys, because the PSUV mortgaged the only card you guys were left holding: they took out $2.8 billion worth of bonds to Goldman Sachs at the beginning of June at a 70% discount rate that will mature in 2022, and those bonds were issued through the PDVSA, which means that in 2022 Goldman Sachs, knowing you can't possibly pay it, is going to start confiscating Citgo stations, refineries, and oil tankers and your shipments of oil after having paid 30% of what they're worth. They sold your future out to American vulture capitalists for pennies on the dollar.

Joke's on them, an oil tanker that rusts a hole in the side and sinks to the bottom of the Caribbean is worth 0% of what GS paid. :v:

Pharohman777
Jan 14, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
So are PDVSA ports a giant oil slick? I mean, if crude is leaking out of the pipes enough that the ships are dirty...

I wonder if the ocean around the places where the crude is pumped onto the ships is flammable due to all the leakage.

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

They don't really have to travel to Venezuela to take it. Citgo is 51% owned by the Venezuelan government and 49% owned by Russia (Rosneft), so they can just grab enough Citgo stations, the Hovensa refinery in the US Virgin Islands, and Nynäs Petroleum in Sweden.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Sergg posted:

Since Venezuela is a petro-state which discovered oil in the 1940s, most of its economic growth has centered around petroleum production and industry. It has always been a net importer of food, mostly from Colombia and the US. In 2004 agriculture was about 5% of the GDP and 10% of the labor force. As of 2005, 3% of proprietors owned about 70% of the agricultural land, which is one of the heaviest land concentration in Latin America. The Venezuelan government has responded to this by confiscating huge tracts of it and handing it over to urban poor families. The problem is that they need to import tractors, harvesters, tools, seeds, cement for silos, etc. and they can't do that because Venezuela's currency isn't worth dog poo poo and the government isn't concerned with helping them either at this point. There are many parallels to Robert Mugabe in the sense that he caused massive famine and hyperinflation due to a poor understanding of economics and agricultural policy.

I don't think mentioning the percent of GDP and work force in agriculture is useful. In the US, the entire agriculture and food industry together is 5.5% GDP and 1.5% of the labor force. The more useful indication is that for all that percentage of the work force and GDP it's grossly unproductive

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
As I mentioned earlier, Tibisay Lucena (the head of the CNE) spoke earlier on the revelations from SmartMatic about the fact that the election on Sunday was a fraud. Lucena did not present any evidence to counter SmartMatic's claim. She simply repeated the assertion that SmartMatic was "irresponsible" for making the comments and that they were not true. Her main line of attack against the company was that SmartMatic is only a "service provider", and if anyone understand what she means by that or why being a service provider would disqualify SmartMatic from commenting on the service that they provide, please let me know. Lucena said:

quote:

SmartMatic’s announcements are an unprecedented opinion from a company that only provides a service… SmartMatic is in charge of technical services, and that’s it.
Maduro was a little bit more crass with his take on the SmartMatic news, as is his style. He said that the CEO of the company was "stupid" and that he had yielded to U.S. pressure to lie about all of this because. Maduro also said that he was going to "take measures" against the company but he didn't explain what he meant.

Maduro also gave a speech tonight about the Constituent Assembly and its job in the days ahead. The assembly was supposed to convene tomorrow, but Maduro moved the date to Friday.

During his speech, Maduro suggested that the Constituent Assembly should consider jailing opposition leaders for tweeting anti-regime opinions and removing parliamentary immunity. Here is a video with his comments along with my translation:

https://twitter.com/2001OnLine/status/892921666216636418

quote:

Maduro: What did the opposition do on July 30? They went nuts. They went nuts on Twitter. They should all be sent to prison for 30 years just for the Twitters that they published [sic]. That's up to you, not me. Making justice over the next few days is the Constituent [Assembly's] job.

Also, removing the parliamentary immunities [sic] that generate impunity. Put an end to parliamentary immunity, which is generated by the commission of a flagrant crime [sic]. Yeah, really.

They say I'm a dictator. You know I'm not a dictator at all, but sometimes I wish I could become a dictator to face off against the sons-of-bitches speculators. The grandfather [????].

(...)

It is an imperative task. Defeating the imperialist aggression that is being created by a coalition of countries against Venezuela is an important as recovering the economy! That's what I'm saying. The government of Donald Trump is creating an economic, political and military aggression along with a group of right-wing governments, right now, against the sovereignty and the peace of Venezuela.
In another bit of news, the Supreme Court removed the (opposition) mayor of Merida, Merida state from his position today and sentenced him to 15 months in prison for not stopping the protests in the city. Nevermind the fact that protest policing is solely under the jurisdiction of state and national police, meaning that there is virtually nothing that a mayor can do to stop a protest in his city short of personally going out and shooting protesters dead.

The mayor, Carlos Garcia Odoen, is the 14th mayor to be targeted by the Supreme Court on fictitious charges, and the 3rd opposition mayor in about 2 weeks to be removed from office by court order. The others were Alfredo Ramos from Iribarren, Lara (currently in prison) and Gustavo Marcano of Lecheria, Anzoategui (currently in hiding).

EDIT: By the way, the CNE has yet to publish the list of winners of the Constituent Assembly. No one knows who actually won the election yet, and the regime is ready to install the mystery winners already!

JailTrump
Jul 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
"I'm not a dictator but everyone who criticizes me should go to jail for 30 years especially all the opposition members of the national Congress!"

:shepspends:

ryde
Sep 9, 2011

God I love young girls
What is the chance that Venezuela can rebuild without crushing austerity? Even in the case that the left retains control, I don't see a future where social services remain intact simply because they don't have the money and won't until they dig themselves out of an economic hole. It's heart-crushing to think about the amount of privation in store even after political turmoil is resolved.

JailTrump
Jul 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless

ryde posted:

What is the chance that Venezuela can rebuild without crushing austerity? Even in the case that the left retains control, I don't see a future where social services remain intact simply because they don't have the money and won't until they dig themselves out of an economic hole. It's heart-crushing to think about the amount of privation in store even after political turmoil is resolved.

There are no social services now why would they have any in the future?

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

ryde posted:

What is the chance that Venezuela can rebuild without crushing austerity? Even in the case that the left retains control, I don't see a future where social services remain intact simply because they don't have the money and won't until they dig themselves out of an economic hole. It's heart-crushing to think about the amount of privation in store even after political turmoil is resolved.

What social services? They've been dead for at least a year at this point, unless you have the proper connections.

Meaningful leftism lost control years ago, even lovely leftism is gone now.

AstraSage
May 13, 2013

Sergg posted:

Since Venezuela is a petro-state which discovered oil in the 1940s, most of its economic growth has centered around petroleum production and industry. It has always been a net importer of food, mostly from Colombia and the US. In 2004 agriculture was about 5% of the GDP and 10% of the labor force. As of 2005, 3% of proprietors owned about 70% of the agricultural land, which is one of the heaviest land concentration in Latin America. The Venezuelan government has responded to this by confiscating huge tracts of it and handing it over to urban poor families. The problem is that they need to import tractors, harvesters, tools, seeds, cement for silos, etc. and they can't do that because Venezuela's currency isn't worth dog poo poo and the government isn't concerned with helping them either at this point. There are many parallels to Robert Mugabe in the sense that he caused massive famine and hyperinflation due to a poor understanding of economics and agricultural policy.

I feel I should correct one small fact: Oil in Venezuela was discovered much earlier, back in the late 1900s to early 1910s.

Also the main issue of handing confiscated plots of farming land to urban poor families is that the Ministry of Agriculture didn't bother to train or supervise them, so predictably a lot of those farm sites quickly fell into disrepair and got abandoned by a lot of those families returning to the slums.



I also could tell another factor about the whole agricultural mismanagement, but I don't want to bore anyone with family anecdotes about rice...

AstraSage fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Aug 3, 2017

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
The situation in Venezuela is so bad that austerity would actually be an improvement.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

JailTrump posted:

There are no social services now why would they have any in the future?

The government spends a lot of money that benefit people directly, like the gasoline subsidy. Gas subsidies are about the stupidest most wasteful form of social spending possible for myriad reasons, but cuts to such programs are quickly felt.

Weirdly it seems like Venezuela's shortages are already a product of austerity of a sort. With foreign currency so scarce in Venezuela, it has been prioritized to pay foreign creditors rather than to import food and other trade goods.

Kokoro Wish
Jul 23, 2007

Post? What post? Oh wow.
I had nothing to do with THAT.
Edit: Oh wait no, right thread

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuEwJay9Mlo

Interviews with an election observer invited by the CNE and also a Greg Wilpert, a TRNN reporter who apparently has a wife somewhere in the government (foreign ministry).

Kokoro Wish fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Aug 3, 2017

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

AstraSage posted:

I also could tell another factor about the whole agricultural mismanagement, but I don't want to bore anyone with family anecdotes about rice...

Haven't there been issues with price controls preventing farmers from selling their product at a profit? Like distributing land to people isn't going to work if you then force them to sell at a loss.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Squalid posted:

The government spends a lot of money that benefit people directly, like the gasoline subsidy. Gas subsidies are about the stupidest most wasteful form of social spending possible for myriad reasons, but cuts to such programs are quickly felt.

Weirdly it seems like Venezuela's shortages are already a product of austerity of a sort. With foreign currency so scarce in Venezuela, it has been prioritized to pay foreign creditors rather than to import food and other trade goods.

The fuel subsidy is particularly egregious because of the fact that most of it must be refined overseas and reimported.

Though heavy fuel subsidy has been done long before Chavez took power of course, so not really something to blame on the PSUV.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

Kokoro Wish posted:

Edit: Oh wait no, right thread

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuEwJay9Mlo

Interviews with an election observer invited by the CNE and also a Greg Wilpert, a TRNN reporter who apparently has a wife somewhere in the government (foreign ministry).

I skipped to a random section of the video and stopped watching it after about 20 seconds because Dan Kovalik demonstrated a shocking level of ignorance (or dishonesty?) about the facts.

Skip to 3:10. When the host asks Dan if he believes that 8.1 million people voted in the election, Dan says "Of course!" and goes on about how he trusts the CNE because "it's a separate branch of the Venezuelan government" and that it's "independent of the executive branch", and then recycles that Jimmy Carter quote from I don't know how many years ago.

Simply on its face, the argument that the CNE is independent (and therefore impartial?) from the executive branch because it's its own separate branch is absurd. "The CNE is independent because it is its own branch of government" is an example of what is called a tautological argument, which is a fancy way of saying "you're not making any sense"

Imagine saying that the Senate Republicans are independent from Trump's office because the Senate is part of a separate branch of government. It's a laughable claim. Just because on paper two branches of government exist physically separated from one another does not mean that they are in fact independent of one another. You can and do have collaboration and coordination across separate branches of governments all the time because, surprise, you can have the same political faction in power in two separate branches of government at the same time.

I've seen The Real News videos posted every once in a while and they've all been among the laziest, most grotesque pieces of pro-regime propaganda that I've seen.

AstraSage
May 13, 2013

Squalid posted:

Haven't there been issues with price controls preventing farmers from selling their product at a profit? Like distributing land to people isn't going to work if you then force them to sell at a loss.

That's true, but there's also the fact the Ministry of Agriculture decided around 2008 to imitate CADIVI(Our Currency Exchange Control Entity at the time)'s Dollar Rationing Schedule an started giving the credits for better crops on March instead of January without a care for the Rain Cycles (Most Grain Produces are planted on the dry month of January for better control of the irrigation and for taking advantage of May's Showers: if they get planted too late, they don't develop strong enough roots to handle the sudden influx of rainwater once May rolls around and thus a very significant portion of the Crops rots), turning a year of a Bad Harvest that could have been easy to fix into four years of Worse ones that put a strain into the national suppliers of Corn, Rice and Beans.

On top of that, the Government took a really malicious approach to earning Diplomatic Support from other Latinamerican Nations by becoming the farmers' biggest competitor through importing a lot of those products and selling it at a price set by a really unrealistic exchange rate (4 Bolivares per Dollar) that couldn't be matched by non-Government-owned companies.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

Der Waffle Mous posted:

As someone who's been kinda bad about keeping up with this thread before big parts of leftist Twitter started suddenly caring about democracy in Venezuela is there a good summary of what's been happening since the OP?

Like I have a grasp on what's going on but I feel like I need some things explained to me simply. Like what were the elections that were cancelled and whether or not my read of the 2015 election wiki was that Maduro basically created a new branch of government to neuter parliament was correct.

Edit: and also exactly what the constituent assembly is beyond the probable electoral fraud.

I've updated the second post in this thread with a brief overview of what happened in Venezuela last year. I've tried to cover as much as I can the questions that you asked in this post, and whenever possible I've provided links and dates.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Chuck Boone posted:

Skip to 3:10. When the host asks Dan if he believes that 8.1 million people voted in the election, Dan says "Of course!" and goes on about how he trusts the CNE because "it's a separate branch of the Venezuelan government" and that it's "independent of the executive branch", and then recycles that Jimmy Carter quote from I don't know how many years ago.

Lol.

The Motherfucking Carter Center posted:

ATLANTA — The Carter Center is dismayed by the deplorable events that have taken place in Venezuela in recent days.

We condemn Sunday’s process to elect a National Constituent Assembly. The process was carried out in the complete absence of electoral integrity, posing serious problems of legitimacy, legality, and procedure. The measures taken by the government to prevent freedom of expression, freedom of the press, and the right to peaceful demonstrations contravene the democratic values of plurality and the democratic and participatory clauses protected in the Venezuelan constitution.

We deeply regret the violence, repression, and riots that occurred during the election and the excessive and disproportionate use of force by security forces. The government of Venezuela has the responsibility to ensure respect for the rule of law and fundamental rights.

We reject the extrajudicial detention of opposition leaders Leopoldo Lopez and Antonio Ledezma on Tuesday morning by agents of the intelligence service. The persecution of political dissent lays grounds for serious violations of human rights. Authorities must find workable solutions for citizen grievances.

We urge political forces to reinstate rule of law and the 1999 Constitution and to restore confidence that has been lost because of their attempt to establish divisive parallel institutions.

https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/venezuela-080117.html

Edit: From a Reuters piece:

quote:

"On top of the fact the election was illegal, the (electoral council) broke every rule in the book of electoral integrity," said Jennie K. Lincoln, the Carter Center's director for Latin America and Caribbean. "This election destroyed any vestiges of democracy that might have yet existed in Venezuela."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-turnout-idUSKBN1AG2FN

beer_war fucked around with this message at 06:39 on Aug 3, 2017

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qkkl
Jul 1, 2013

by FactsAreUseless

AstraSage posted:


Also the main issue of handing confiscated plots of farming land to urban poor families is that the Ministry of Agriculture didn't bother to train or supervise them, so predictably a lot of those farm sites quickly fell into disrepair and got abandoned by a lot of those families returning to the slums.


I highly doubt the families abandoned their farms because they didn't know how to grow food. It isn't hard to scatter some corn seeds and water them occasionally. They probably left because criminals demanded a large portion of their harvest or they would be killed.

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