|
There were reports of two more army bases (one in Zulia and one in Lara) that were supposedly involved in the rebellion, but like fnox said it's really hard to tell what's going on. All we can do is wait for the dust to settle. What appears to have happened is that these rebellious soldiers launched the attack on the base and were either repelled and forced to flee, or succeeded in raiding the base for equipment and managed to escape. In either case, there were two or three helicopters flying around the base for much of the morning, and they were particularly interested in wooded and mountainous areas not too far from the base. The rumour mill is pointing to 7 captured and two killed in the attack. The army released a video with the base commander and his troops taken inside of Fuerte Paramacay showing that the base was firmly under control. Unfortunately I have to step out now for most of the day and I won't have cellphone service 
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2017 16:29
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 19:13 |
|
|
Squalid posted:Just at Fuerte paramacay or do you mean more generally? The situation at Fuerte Paramacay is already taken care off, albeit the neighbours are staging protests and are currently being repressed by the GNB. There were however, other instances of military insurrections, I'll post the info once I can confirm it.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2017 16:44
|
|
|
I just have to say that the current situation in the country is proof that whatever Bob has ever said about the "right wing controlling the media" in Venezuela is absolute horseshit, given that at this moment I still don't know a single loving thing about what's going on, and I know who to ask. Citizens have found out about the situation in Guri strictly through Twitter.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2017 19:37
|
|
|
Venegoons, has there been any solid information on some of the increases in disease that were being noted last year/early this year? I'm feeling really concerned for the potential for something really unpleasant to pop up on the ground and no amount of Telesur bullshitting and CIA blaming stops poo poo outcomes if there's like a yellow fever outbreak.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2017 19:57
|
|
|
fnox posted:I just have to say that the current situation in the country is proof that whatever Bob has ever said about the "right wing controlling the media" in Venezuela is absolute horseshit, given that at this moment I still don't know a single loving thing about what's going on, and I know who to ask. Citizens have found out about the situation in Guri strictly through Twitter. For me, saying that the fact that there's privately-owned media means that there is freedom of the press is as bad as arguing that Venezuela is a democracy because Maduro was elected president. Yes, there's privately-owned media still, but you don't have to directly own a TV station to control what it shows (by threatening to cancel its licenses, suing it into oblivion, forcing it to adhere to strict regulations via laws on what it can't and cannot show, etc.). Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Aug 6, 2017 |
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2017 20:01
|
|
|
And endlessly running cadenas to block their programming. So I guess we can firmly say this insurrection was a dud?
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 02:01
|
|
|
qkkl posted:I highly doubt the families abandoned their farms because they didn't know how to grow food. It isn't hard to scatter some corn seeds and water them occasionally. They probably left because criminals demanded a large portion of their harvest or they would be killed. And what do you know about it? From your posting it seems like you are completely ignorant: about farming, about Venezuela, and about Venezuelan farming. Do you have anything to say that demonstrates otherwise, or any way to back up this statement? Play fucked around with this message at 06:46 on Aug 7, 2017 |
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 03:56
|
|
|
Gozinbulx posted:So I guess we can firmly say this insurrection was a dud? The Army is in charge of the CLAP food distribution program and the PDVSA which gives them basically an unlimited way of skimming oil profits and selling food on the black market. When Maduro's popularity started falling he cut them in on the racket.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 05:16
|
|
|
Sergg posted:The Army is in charge of the CLAP food distribution program and the PDVSA which gives them basically an unlimited way of skimming oil profits and selling food on the black market. When Maduro's popularity started falling he cut them in on the racket. There will come a time when there's not enough being skimmed off the top or being sold on the black market, and that's when Maduro is absolutely hosed. That's not now though.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 06:05
|
|
|
Gozinbulx posted:And endlessly running cadenas to block their programming. I don't know yet, we'll find out this week.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 06:40
|
|
|
Schlesische posted:There will come a time when there's not enough being skimmed off the top or being sold on the black market, and that's when Maduro is absolutely hosed. This is why I don't quite understand why several people think the US stopping to do business with Maduro's regime would be all that bad of a thing. I mean, I don't like that it would be the US tangentially enforcing regime change on Venezuela, but is it honestly better for the people for this to happen in a more 'organic' way, i.e. the major PDVSA pumping stations and port collapse in a massive explosion due to poor maintenance? If there is a huge collapse in the regime funding, won't they have to allow humanitarian aid in? If the PDVSA suddenly collapses then Maduro won't even be able to keep up the pretense that "all is fine and dandy here, nothing to see here". How could it be worse than the current humanitarian disaster? Wouldn't it mean aid gets let in -> people are actually better off than they are now? The only downside that I see is that it leads credence to the now-baseless claims that the CIA/USA is waging economic war on Venezuela, but idiots believe that already anyway. I'm very curious on your take on this now, Chuck, if you're willing to postulate. But it seems to me that the chances for democratic regime change in Venezuela at this point are somewhat lower than Cuba's and somewhat higher than North Korea's. I mean the only two possibilities I can see for VZ are: there will either be a military coup (likely), or there will be complete societal collapse and Venezuela will become the Somalia of Latin America (much less likely). Is there some reason it's better to wait for (1) to happen in two years—which seems inevitable after Venezuela has zero monetary reserves and the inability to fund their debt means no imports and the oil industry finally collapses after the Chinese stop caring? Would it not be better for the regime to collapse while there is at least a tiny bit of possibility for the next government to not be crushed under the weight of Maduro's failures?
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 07:55
|
|
|
Saladman posted:This is why I don't quite understand why several people think the US stopping to do business with Maduro's regime would be all that bad of a thing. I mean, I don't like that it would be the US tangentially enforcing regime change on Venezuela, but is it honestly better for the people for this to happen in a more 'organic' way, i.e. the major PDVSA pumping stations and port collapse in a massive explosion due to poor maintenance? If there is a huge collapse in the regime funding, won't they have to allow humanitarian aid in? If the PDVSA suddenly collapses then Maduro won't even be able to keep up the pretense that "all is fine and dandy here, nothing to see here". How could it be worse than the current humanitarian disaster? Wouldn't it mean aid gets let in -> people are actually better off than they are now? The only downside that I see is that it leads credence to the now-baseless claims that the CIA/USA is waging economic war on Venezuela, but idiots believe that already anyway. The problem is a lot of people would die in the process. The US is basically the government's biggest cash cow, despite all the baseless crap people keep talking about economic war. Take that money away and suddenly the government will have to slash what little imports it's bringing in almost in their entirety. The thing is you're assuming the government would do the logical thing and open a humanitarian aid channel, but they've already proven they don't care too much about thousands of people dying, so even that can't be certain. Even if they do, can humanitarian aid feed the entire country? Because at least now there's some level of imports coming in. It's not enough, but it's something. Now, places like Caracas have plenty of businesses smuggling things in and selling them at black market prices, but small towns? Those would basically get wiped off the map since there's hardly enough food getting there as is. Plus, forget about government subsidized products in that scenario – everyone would be forced to buy food at black market prices and considering over 80% of the population is now very poor, they wouldn't be able to make ends meet. Sure, the longer Maduro stays in power the more people will die anyway, but drastic sanctions on PDVSA and other areas of the economy (although let's be honest, you only need to sanction the former) would trigger a massive humanitarian crisis that would fuel anti-US sentiment for decades to come. I wouldn't want to be the one in charge of making that decision.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 14:37
|
|
|
I haven't heard anything about that dam they opened yesterday other than the video posted in here. Is the flooding bad?
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 16:05
|
|
|
If the CIA was involved the tilt would have already happened. and it hasnt. Maybe the CIA wsbinvolved in the beginnung but at this point they dont need to torpedo a sinking ship
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 17:24
|
|
|
Probably nothing new for anyone who's been following this thread for a while, but here's a good long interview with Hannah Dreier, for the last three years correspondent for the Associated Press in Venezuela. A snippet:quote:Glasser: So, that’s not even like, black market available, but at a price? Food was available to you at a higher price, but water you couldn’t get?
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 18:29
|
|
|
BBC reporting the incident at fuerte paramacay was probably not an effortto seize the whole base, but was rather a smash and grab attempt to abscond with arms and other military supplies. Their correspondent believes it probably succeeded.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 18:31
|
|
|
Jesus. "Oh, thank God, I only got kidnapped by the secret police, it could've been worse."
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 19:09
|
|
|
Pluskut Tukker posted:Probably nothing new for anyone who's been following this thread for a while, but here's a good long interview with Hannah Dreier, for the last three years correspondent for the Associated Press in Venezuela. A snippet: This was a great read! Thanks for posting it. Squalid posted:BBC reporting the incident at fuerte paramacay was probably not an effortto seize the whole base, but was rather a smash and grab attempt to abscond with arms and other military supplies. Their correspondent believes it probably succeeded. The Ministry of Defense issued a statement yesterday in which it said that some of the attackers had managed to get away. Since they only captured seven, if if we go by the ~20 people that appears in the manifesto video, that's about 13 people involved in this thing who are still free. In any case, the BBC report might be accurate, since the attackers did manage to steal quite a bit of stuff: [urk=https://twitter.com/RCamachoVzla/status/894292888330412032]about 93 AK-103s and 40 M6L grenade launchers[/url] (Note: I say "40" grenade launchers and not the "04" reported by Roman Camacho because that was probably a typo on his part. If only four grenade launchers had been stolen, Roman would have written "4"). Despite the fact that the army continues to paint itself as a "united monolith" that radiates chavista love for all of the men, women and children of Venezuela, the big takeaway here is that there are groups of soldiers out there who are willing to risk death by going on the record against Maduro and attacking military bases. Comrayn posted:I haven't heard anything about that dam they opened yesterday other than the video posted in here. Is the flooding bad? Sections of the city of Puerto Ordaz (Pop.: ~1 million) have been flooded due to the issues at the Guri dam. A National Assembly deputy for Bolivar state (which is where the dam is located) has said that the reason for the flooding has to do with the fact that the government didn't get the timing of the closing/opening of the floodgates right... whoops! Feinne posted:Venegoons, has there been any solid information on some of the increases in disease that were being noted last year/early this year? I'm feeling really concerned for the potential for something really unpleasant to pop up on the ground and no amount of Telesur bullshitting and CIA blaming stops poo poo outcomes if there's like a yellow fever outbreak. Back in early May, the Ministry of Health released some official statistics showing that in 2016, infant mortality had increased 30% and maternal mortality had increased 65.79% as a result of the ongoing collapse of the healthcare system. Diphtheria had also made a comeback (it had been eradicated in the country about 24 years ago), with 324 cases in 2016 and at least 86 cases in the first four months of 2017. There was an increase in malaria cases in 2016 of 76.4%. There were 240,613 recorded cases in 2016, up from 136,402 in 2015 and 75,000 in 2013. I'm not sure about other infectious diseases, but I think I might venture a case that the situation with other diseases will also be "not great". Venezuela's going through a perfect storm for health right now: chronic shortages of medicine and basic medical supplies, coupled with a general lack of education regarding outbreaks/disease prevention, and on top of that a government that would rather have people died of preventable causes rather than admit that there's a healthcare crisis happening.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 21:43
|
|
|
The malaria number is probably scariest, since an increase like that at some level suggests a high likelihood for a generic increase in mosquito-borne illness. The only bloodsuckers more dangerous to Venezuela than the PSUV. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 22:26
|
|
|
I suspect that the people in the military who are feeling rebellious are probably the ones in the lower ranks who arn't seeing much, if any of the bribe money the PSUV is shuffling to the military.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 22:32
|
|
|
There are probably going to be more smash and grab attacks on the military and colectivos in the future, since they have a monopoly on guns and explosives.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 23:15
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:There were reports of two more army bases (one in Zulia and one in Lara) that were supposedly involved in the rebellion, but like fnox said it's really hard to tell what's going on. All we can do is wait for the dust to settle. Getting a Reichstag Fire vibe tbh...
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 23:25
|
|
|
feedmegin posted:Getting a Reichstag Fire vibe tbh... Not talking about it and actively suppressing information related to it would kinda defeat the purpose of a false flag. Given the perpetrators it would also imply the target of this false flag is the military. So, yeah, probably not.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 23:38
|
|
|
ugh its Troika posted:I suspect that the people in the military who are feeling rebellious are probably the ones in the lower ranks who arn't seeing much, if any of the bribe money the PSUV is shuffling to the military. The take this morning from the reporter NPR interviewed on the subject was that the top brass, whose pockets are stuffed by PSUV oil money, are likely to remain on Maduro's side, and the lower ranks are likely to have similar opinions to the population at large, so all eyes are on the middle ranks to see if they're willing to break. If so it would represent a much larger fracture in Maduro's hold on power.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2017 23:55
|
|
|
Since we're on the flooding talk: Civil Protection [which is run by the government] says that the flooding isn't at all related to anything having to do with the Guri dam, so here's an article on that for the record. Oscar Perez, the renegade CICPC agent who attacked government buildings in Caracas from a helicopter, spoke in a 15-minute interview with Patricia Poleo (a divisive journalist in Venezuela), and he said that PDVSA ships are routinely used for drug-smuggling operations. Perez made the comments in his capacity as a (former) CICPC officer, whose job it was to investigate criminal activity. On the regime's role in perpetrating and covering up crimes, Perez said: quote:We've seen lots of cases in which la impunidad a quedado al rojo vivo [Roughly, this means something like "investigations have been abandoned while the crimes were fresh"). When we started to investigate and realize that there is a link [to a government official], we have to report to their superior, and they tell us that the investigation has to be stopped. There have been two protest-related casualties in the last 24 hours:
Also, here's a video that has been making a big splash on social media since it was posted this weekend. It shows one of the heads of the Consejo Nacional Electoral, Socorro Hernandez, being confronted by a group of indignant Venezuelans at a supermarket somewhere in the country. Hernandez is a key player in the regime for her role in rigging elections and helping to keep Maduro in power, and is widely viewed as having a direct role in the destruction of the country and the perpetuation of the dictatorship. Here's the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeMb2yItdF8 Maduro responded to the video yesterday by promising to lock up everyone who hurt Hernandez's feelings. Also, the supermarket in which the video was recorded was [url=http://www.noticierodigital.com/2017/08/sancionaron-el-negocio-donde-confrontaron-a-socorro-hernandez/closed today by regime bureaucrats for an unspecified infraction[/url]. Polidoro posted:The Paraguay thing wasn't really a coup though. Their constitution allows congress to vote the president out and they did. This is from the last page--I'm sorry for missing it. Thanks for pointing this out. I'm actually not at all familiar with Paraguay's 2012 expulsion and was going off news articles that I found covering the story at the time. I'm sure that as with many other things there were lots of juicy machinations happening behind the scenes in this case. Thanks again for pointing this out.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2017 02:15
|
|
|
Those guys probably just stole the guns because they're worth money and their families are starving
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2017 06:14
|
|
|
The MUD has made - what the people consider - a big big misstep. They are agreeing to partake in upcoming elections. With one of their main leader's saying they believe that the "Path out of this Dictatorship is through elections.". Despite the fact that the National Electoral Council (CNE) has been proven now to just basically be a tool of Maduro and the PSUV. Those elections will be undoubtedly rigged. But that wouldn't even be necesarry considering what the PSUV plan do to with the Supreme Court and the Constituent Assembly: which is outlawing the opposition from running for positions in every single state they have a chance - and arresting the current sitting opposition mayors and governors - and any other political figure that threatens their power. Just this morning the Supreme Court handed down a judgement and issues arrest warrant for [Ramon Muchacho](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ram%C3%B3n_Muchacho) popular Mayor of the Chacao Region. The judgement also includes the order that he be placed in custody by the States Secret Police (SEBIN)
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2017 14:33
|
|
|
Sergg posted:Those guys probably just stole the guns because they're worth money and their families are starving Well, you can't exactly topple a totalitarian regime with 120 guns and a couple mortars and grenades, but people seem desperate for any hope offered.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2017 21:37
|
|
|
Pochoclo posted:Well, you can't exactly topple a totalitarian regime with 120 guns and a couple mortars and grenades, but people seem desperate for any hope offered. Sure you can, there plenty of examples in history of popular revolutions working with even less. There are probably 50 examples of everyone being murdered to every time a semi-bloodless popular revolution has been successful, though. I sure wouldn't get my hopes up here.
|
|
#
?
Aug 9, 2017 01:07
|
|
|
ThisIsWhyTrumpWon posted:The MUD has made - what the people consider - a big big misstep. CIA plants!!! Yankee-sponsored coup!! Imperia- oh wait.... the opposition still wants to hold elections despite Maduro arbitrarily writing his own Constitution and ignoring them for the last several years? Man where are my talking points for this one?
|
|
#
?
Aug 9, 2017 05:23
|
|
|
Some of the MUD's constituent parties deciding to run in the regional elections has formed part of a huge debate since the Constituent Assembly fraud. Part of the opposition (like Maria Corina Machado) say that participating in the regional elections is insane because we're at the stage of the game where the CNE makes up electoral results, which means that we already know who won the December vote. The argument goes that by participating in the elections, the opposition would be validating the regime and lending credence to a fraud. The other side of the argument (from people like Henry Ramos Allup and Freddy Guevara) is that people have died fighting for elections, and that the regime would want nothing more than for the opposition to boycott the vote so that they can win everything. Freddy Guevara also said yesterday that participating in the elections doesn't mean abandoning the streets, and that by running the regime might be forced to cancel the whole thing. Here's some of what happened yesterday:
Also, ThisIsWhyTrumpWon mentioned yesterday that another opposition mayor (Ramon Muchacho) had been removed from his post and sentenced to prison. Muchacho is the 5th opposition mayor who was been removed from office and/or arrested in 2 weeks, and the 11th in three years. When the regime comes for the mayors, it's usually with contempt charges. The Supreme Court will often issue judicial orders for mayors to stop protests in their municipalities which is an impossible task to complete because 1) the right to peaceful protest is guaranteed in the Constitution, and 2) protest policing falls to the National Guard and the National Bolivarian Police, not municipal police forces.
|
|
#
?
Aug 9, 2017 12:03
|
|
|
I honestly don't get why anybody would think that the government would cancel elections if the opposition participates. The government can now drag the opposition into an election they can freely rig, that has now been legitimized by their participation. Nobody wants to die for regional elections. What the people want is to get rid of Maduro at any cost, and all this is doing is extending Maduro's reign for a couple of useless positions that the government regularly tramples on and ignores. Have they not loving learned that by now?
|
|
#
?
Aug 9, 2017 14:02
|
|
|
It's either that or get hauled off to jail by SEBIN, which will eventually happen to y'all anyways.
|
|
#
?
Aug 9, 2017 14:51
|
|
|
It's not even a remote possibility, there are dozens of mayors in jail for dissenting and many more under trial illicitly. The government literally doesn't give a single gently caress about losing those seats but the opposition leadership is so accustomed to losing they'll settle for anything.
|
|
#
?
Aug 9, 2017 15:24
|
|
|
Diosdado, one of the big figures in the constituent assembly and the PSUV is now saying anyone who wants to run for elections must receive a commendation of good conduct from the constituent assembly. The whole thing is quickly moving towards a one party communist state.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2017 03:46
|
|
|
ThisIsWhyTrumpWon posted:Diosdado, one of the big figures in the constituent assembly and the PSUV is now saying anyone who wants to run for elections must receive a commendation of good conduct from the constituent assembly. At the rate things are going calling it a "state" might be a stretch.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2017 04:18
|
|
|
Barudak posted:At the rate things are going calling it a "state" might be a stretch. More like "in state". 
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2017 04:21
|
|
|
ThisIsWhyTrumpWon posted:Diosdado, one of the big figures in the constituent assembly and the PSUV is now saying anyone who wants to run for elections must receive a commendation of good conduct from the constituent assembly. Lol alright. MUD is really going to lend themselves to this charade? Christ.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2017 04:28
|
|
|
The opposition mayor of El Hatillo, David Smolansky, was removed from his post and sentenced to 15 months in prison by the Supreme Court yesterday. The Supreme Court's decision is idential to one it made on Tuesday regarding another opposition mayor, Ramon Muchacho of Chacao. I haven't been keeping track, but the figure that Smolansky was throwing around the other day is that there have now been six opposition mayors (including himself) removed from office and/or sentenced to prison in the past two weeks, and 12 in the last three years. The Supreme Court's rulings in all of these cases are that the mayors are in contempt of previous orders to stop protests in their municipalities. I've said it before but I'll briefly say it again: a court order to stop a protest in a municipality is illegal and impossible to obey. The right to peaceful protest is set out in the constitution, and municipalities do not have the power to engage in protest policing activities. It's also worth pointing out that even though there have been protests all around the country since April, only opposition popular opposition mayors are singled out for removal/arrest. The PSUV is doing through the Supreme Court what it could not do through the voting booth: removing popular opposition figures from their positions. Gozinbulx posted:Lol alright. MUD is really going to lend themselves to this charade? Christ. It's a really tough choice. I don't know which is the correct one: to run, or not to run. If you don't run, then you make the regime's job a whole lot easier because they sweep the board, plus you're denying millions of people the chance to voice their opinions on election day. If you do run, you're lending legitimacy to an electoral system that has been demonstrated to be a complete farce and you're playing a rigged game. I don't know--what do other people think about this? ThisIsWhyTrumpWon posted:Diosdado, one of the big figures in the constituent assembly and the PSUV is now saying anyone who wants to run for elections must receive a commendation of good conduct from the constituent assembly. This is so messed up. Cabello also said that the Constituent Assembly "is really sovereign" (which makes as little sense in Spanish as it does in English), and that while it's only meeting for two years "it could decide to [rule] for four or six years".
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2017 11:41
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 19:13 |
|
|
The offensive part is truly that they're asking for participation in the regional elections at the expense of what people actually want them to do, which is to seek the immediate removal of Maduro and lead to the establishment of a transitional government. Had they actually played ball the government wouldn't have had a chance to rig the regional elections because they would have been out by December.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2017 13:13
|
|