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evilweasel posted:the united states and the EU would have been much more willing to support ukraine, which wants desperately to join the american sphere, overtly or covertly to retake its territory says who? the EU has substantive energy deals with russia, and there is no political will to confront russia militarily in the EU.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:46
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Rigel posted:Another thing that complicates just accepting option 1 is the fear that North Korea might sell nuclear weapons to terrorists. We don't believe Russia or China would ever do that, so MAD makes more sense with them. Thats what it would probably take to get me to accept option 2, would be if the military could somehow convince me that option 1 won't work. yeah, there's really just no sensible way to accept (1) without basically deciding to end north korea's isolation because you need them to start having a real stake in global affairs not going to poo poo and you want the kims to stop needing to sell anything and everything they can get to get hard currency to prop up their rule which is why this is such a terrible situation to have trump as president in
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Aug 8, 2017 23:46
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Mr Interweb posted:Or because you put a dash at the beginning, which Excel will go stir crazy if you do (I use Excel to organize QC related issues). Drove me insane trying to figure out wtf the problem was. I missed excel chat earlier today. I'm a spreadsheet monkey and everyone in our department is by necessity very good at excel. (If you can't pass a basic timed excel test out of college, we probably won't hire you) Once you get comfortable with writing macros, you can do some really crazy time-saving stuff. I think the point that accelerated my ability with Excel more than anything else was when I figured out how to browse through lists of excel formulas and see something that would do what I need, even if I never used or saw that formula before. Rigel fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Aug 8, 2017 |
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Aug 8, 2017 23:48
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botany posted:says who? the EU has substantive energy deals with russia, and there is no political will to confront russia militarily in the EU. because russia has nuclear weapons which dramatically changes the calculus of what you tolerate out of them it is bad loving news when nutjob countries start taking pieces out of their neighbors and if it could have been stopped it would have, but given that russia is a nuclear power, that calculus changes
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Aug 8, 2017 23:48
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Lemon King posted:https://twitter.com/Alex_Panetta/status/895027335187005441 Wag the Dog was supposed to be a satire, not a premonition.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:48
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Thats mildly terrifying.
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evilweasel posted:because russia has nuclear weapons which dramatically changes the calculus of what you tolerate out of them says who? you seem to be saying that, if russia didn't have nuclear weapons, the EU would be acting differently, and i see absolutely no evidence for that.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:50
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botany posted:says who? you seem to be saying that, if russia didn't have nuclear weapons, the EU would be acting differently, and i see absolutely no evidence for that. I mean the difference in the state of play in global politics in a hypothetical world where Russia didn't have nuclear weapons is so enormous that the counterfactual is basically worthless.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:51
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evilweasel posted:which is why this is such a terrible situation to have trump as president in evergreen post
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Aug 8, 2017 23:52
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botany posted:says who? you seem to be saying that, if russia didn't have nuclear weapons, the EU would be acting differently, and i see absolutely no evidence for that. says the long history of the eu/us intervening in wars and conflicts between two states (or within a state) when those states don't have nuclear weapons it would probably be driven more by the us than the eu but the eu would probably get dragged along
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Aug 8, 2017 23:54
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The utterly insane thing about posturing that a nuclear NK doesn't dramatically shift the balance of power and what NK is capable of getting away with is that it completely ignores literally every part of history since Nagasaki. Botany posturing that the EU handling Russia relations now being no different than a non-nuclear Russia literally ignores like the single most important aspect of modern history in that region. It wasn't even that long ago that Russia threatened deployment of tactical nuclear battalions. Almost as if there is no self-awareness as to what exactly has shaped geopolitics over the last 70 years.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:55
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The guy from the Apprentice with the weird hair should be president.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:55
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Ague Proof posted:The guy from the Apprentice with the weird hair should be president. I agree. - America
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Aug 8, 2017 23:56
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Boon posted:The utterly insane thing about posturing that a nuclear NK doesn't dramatically shift the balance of power and what NK is capable of getting away with is that it completely ignores literally every part of history since Nagasaki. pakistan exporting nuclear technology to north korea for cold hard cash is a geopolitical event that is worth considering here
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Aug 8, 2017 23:57
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Blorange posted:Ukraine itself is a perfect example of what happens to states that surrender their nuclear capabilities. Any promise the US could make would be taken in light of the one Ukraine got in 1994, and how well that worked out. To be fair, both sides having nukes hasn't always stopped border conflicts. The Soviets and Chinese fought one in 1969, after all. It helps, but I'm not sure it would have stopped the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Crimea was always going to be a problem, one way or another.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:57
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Lightning Knight posted:I mean the difference in the state of play in global politics in a hypothetical world where Russia didn't have nuclear weapons is so enormous that the counterfactual is basically worthless. i don't think it is, except in the sense that if russia had never had nuclear weapons the last decades would have played out differently. but looking at the state of affairs right now, and pretending russia doesn't have nukes, i'm not convinced anything really changes. i feel like US posters here underestimate the degree to which other countries are economically integrated with russia, and overestimating how much political backlash there is with respect to russian foreign operations.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:57
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I really miss the QuidProQuo "let's play presidential elections". At least we got to elect the Anti-Masonic Party. oh god, im so sorry. it was just so much work and i had declining free time. i still feel bad for how i handled that thread (and ending it the cycle before debs).
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Aug 8, 2017 23:57
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evilweasel posted:says the long history of the eu/us intervening in wars and conflicts between two states (or within a state) when those states don't have nuclear weapons this is probably accurate. the EU would likely be dragged into a conflict on behalf of the US.
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Aug 8, 2017 23:58
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would nuclear winter counter-act global warming
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Aug 8, 2017 23:59
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Majorian posted:To be fair, both sides having nukes hasn't always stopped border conflicts. The Soviets and Chinese fought one in 1969, after all. It helps, but I'm not sure it would have stopped the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Crimea was always going to be a problem, one way or another. Also the Kargil War.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:00
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AriadneThread posted:would nuclear winter counter-act global warming I can actually see a foxnation piece making that exact argument. "So what if there's nuclear devastation?"
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Aug 9, 2017 00:00
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AriadneThread posted:would nuclear winter counter-act global warming http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/02/110223-nuclear-war-winter-global-warming-environment-science-climate-change/ quote:To see what climate effects such a regional nuclear conflict might have, scientists from NASA and other institutions modeled a war involving a hundred Hiroshima-level bombs, each packing the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT—just 0.03 percent of the world's current nuclear arsenal. (See a National Geographic magazine feature on weapons of mass destruction.) nasa yearns for nuclear holocaust
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Aug 9, 2017 00:01
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AriadneThread posted:would nuclear winter counter-act global warming Only temporarily, once the cooling period ended there'd be a period of rapid warming that would put the global temperature above what it currently is.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:01
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Can someone clarify this for me: This whole "North Korea can miniaturize a nuclear warhead to be carried by an ICBM" thing is not from any announcement or test from North Korea, right? It's from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (the place where the Cohen-Watnick guy came from), their assessment of the current state of NK nuclear capability. Right? If that's the case, I don't trust it at all in that I can totally see this being ginned up by Trump to cause a tempest (which of course it has) to distract from the other whirlpool of poo poo circling ever more tightly around his hairpiece.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:01
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evilweasel posted:because russia has nuclear weapons which dramatically changes the calculus of what you tolerate out of them Lol just lol if you think any EU country would have the political will or the military might to fight a sustained campaign in Ukraine
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Aug 9, 2017 00:02
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AriadneThread posted:would nuclear winter counter-act global warming This is why Trump pulled us out of the Paris Agreement, he knew we wouldn't need it! 5D chess!
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Aug 9, 2017 00:02
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This might have been posted, it's hard to keep up sometimes but this is a https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/ * I can't really let a word like "good" sit unassociated near this article because it is pretty loving grim Bhaal fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 00:02
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Boon posted:The utterly insane thing about posturing that a nuclear NK doesn't dramatically shift the balance of power and what NK is capable of getting away with is that it completely ignores literally every part of history since Nagasaki. Botany posturing that the EU handling Russia relations now being no different than a non-nuclear Russia literally ignores like the single most important aspect of modern history in that region. It wasn't even that long ago that Russia threatened deployment of tactical nuclear battalions. Ok so if your theory was true, aren't we well past the breaking point? North Korea has had nuclear weapons for years now. It is already too late.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:02
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/895032388312498177 Trump is too hawkish for John loving McCain 
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Aug 9, 2017 00:03
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botany posted:i don't think it is, except in the sense that if russia had never had nuclear weapons the last decades would have played out differently. but looking at the state of affairs right now, and pretending russia doesn't have nukes, i'm not convinced anything really changes. i feel like US posters here underestimate the degree to which other countries are economically integrated with russia, and overestimating how much political backlash there is with respect to russian foreign operations. You, of course, realize that there are significant BMD investments being made in Europe right now, correct? Also, this. http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/05/russian-lawmaker-we-would-use-nukes-if-us-or-nato-enters-crimea/138230/ You act like this hasn't been a repeated occurrence since the loving cold war Trabisnikof posted:Ok so if your theory was true, aren't we well past the breaking point? North Korea has had nuclear weapons for years now. It is already too late. Probably not, but it's quickly approaching. Previously NK hasn't been able to miniaturize a warhead for an ICBM or even an SRBM. ICBM's are significantly different when it comes to missile defense and as they improve their technology it's possible that the threat becomes insurmountable. Until this report, NK did not have a means to effectively deliver the force of a nuclear blast. Now they do, the question becomes at what point do they achieve missile technology that can reliably and quickly launch. Boon fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 00:03
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SeANMcBAY posted:Also the Kargil War. Indeed, that's probably an even better analogue to the Crimea clusterfuck, since it's a diverse area with civilians and partisans favoring one power over the other to rule the region.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:05
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DaveWoo posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/895032388312498177 Okay, but would he do anything to stop Trump?
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Aug 9, 2017 00:06
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QuoProQuid posted:oh god, im so sorry. it was just so much work and i had declining free time.  The reason I miss it is that it was goddamn amazing.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:06
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Zwabu posted:Can someone clarify this for me: This is from a little while ago but it's a good article. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/09/north-korea-fifth-nuclear-test-kim-jong-un-why/499490/ And no, this isn't being ginned up in general.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:07
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Electric Phantasm posted:Okay, but would he do anything to stop Trump? What can he do? Congress has the power to declare war, but it hasn't done so since WWII. VIetnam, Iraq, Afghanistan have all been Presidential actions.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:08
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AriadneThread posted:would nuclear winter counter-act global warming IPlayVideoGames posted:I can actually see a foxnation piece making that exact argument. "So what if there's nuclear devastation?" 
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Aug 9, 2017 00:08
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Objurium posted:Can we talk about how autism spectrum this body language is though? What the actual gently caress Oh Twump! So tough so leaderly. Big stwong man!
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Aug 9, 2017 00:09
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Electric Phantasm posted:Okay, but would he do anything to stop Trump? Would being very concerned work? Then probably not, I'm afraid.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:10
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Zwabu posted:Can someone clarify this for me: Nuclear bombs are 1940s era technology, ICBMs are 1950s era technology. The only part that is objectively hard about making nuclear ICBMs is that getting and refining nuclear material is hard. But we know that NK has done that so there wasn't really anything supernaturally difficult about the rest.
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Aug 9, 2017 00:11
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Boon posted:You, of course, realize that there are significant BMD investments being made in Europe right now, correct? yes, I do, that's actually sort of my point. we've seen the exact same kind of rhetoric from all sides since the 50s, along with warnings that nuclear war was just around the corner. meanwhile, the EU and russia have progressively become more and more integrated economically, and the big scary war hasn't happened. which european country has an interest in starting a military confrontation with russia in your mind?
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Aug 9, 2017 00:11
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Zwabu posted:Can someone clarify this for me: first, cohen-watnick was a minor middle management figure during his time at dni. the reason why he was appointed to a senior position at nsc is still an unknown second, dni's assessment on this latest development is not yet consensus within the intelligence community. it would track with north korea's increasing activity over the past few years, what the regime itself has promised, and what third-party experts have reported. we still, however, don't know if the assessment is correct. during the lead-up to iraq, there were various leaks suggesting that analysts were unhappy with their findings and that something seriously fishy was happening with the intelligence process. these leaks were not widely reported on or pursued, but you would probably hear rumors about trumpian malfeance if there was any. ((i also kind of doubt the administration possesses the competence or the ties to dni to "gin up" a credible intelligence assessment)) QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 00:11
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