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Papes posted:Eh, I don't think this has been really true in some time. Vegas would love 50/50 action every game but doing that in practice is impossible. Their best long term return is in setting as accurate lines as possible to keep sharps from manipulating the lines and putting them in positions to lose money. Im sure public perception plays a part in their formula but they do have a vested interest in being extremely accurate. I agree with most of that, I should have said that public perception is PART of the equation. My example of this is the McGregor / Mayweather fight. Back in November, Mayweather was at -2250. Today, he is at -550. You can't look at that and say "Wow Mayweather is 4x less likely to win today than he was in November." Edit: I guess what I am saying is predicting an accurate outcome will only get you so far if public perception is skewed enough. You are probably right that the effect isn't as big as it used to be. MrSargent fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 18:22
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I would still take Hilton over a second round qb. Theres a reasonable chance one of the top 3 qbs will bounce back to you in round 3. If they don't that means another solid WR, maybe even top 12, will be there. The extra point per int is only going to matter about 10 points per year.
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Aug 9, 2017 18:28
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Watson over Smith. I'm not even mad, mahomes is coming but still. I want to be in the league where somebody drafts Watson this year. His 49 velocity is going to cause so many picks.
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Aug 9, 2017 18:37
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Hixalot posted:I'm seeing a lot of panic on Cam Newton this year, is there any truth behind it? I don't need him to carry my team but I have him for a cheap price, and while I could move him, it would take a substantial amount of my team salary cap to do so, I'm in a "must win" year (due to expiring player contracts) with a roster of the following going into free agent auction/rookie draft. I'd keep Cam personally.
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Aug 9, 2017 18:44
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RisqueBarber posted:Going back to this, why the hate for Rodgers in the second? I'm in a 6 PT passing td and -3 interception league. Below is my beersheet and Rodgers has the clear value to me. Who would you take? (Green is my selections and red are players already drafted) Drunk Nerds posted:I would still take Hilton over a second round qb. Theres a reasonable chance one of the top 3 qbs will bounce back to you in round 3. If they don't that means another solid WR, maybe even top 12, will be there. The extra point per int is only going to matter about 10 points per year. Yeah, can't argue with beersheets too much because I may not be appreciating QB scoring enough, but I go Hilton or Baldwin pretty easily here, then Brees or Brady a round or two later (or wait even longer). I actually have had Rodgers in a 6/-3 league before and it's really nice to have a set and forget QB, but not at the cost of passing up someone like Hilton.
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Aug 9, 2017 18:46
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Not gonna lie. I was targetting TY hardcore. But with these Luck injury woes, unless he's there in the 3rd/4th...I just dunno.
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Aug 9, 2017 18:52
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As a Colts fan, I am not taking Hilton in the 2nd at all. The QB situation just makes me so nervous. Thankfully, I only have 1 draft that is not auction.
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Aug 9, 2017 18:56
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Those of you in keeper leagues, how are waiver wire acquisitions valued the following year compared to players obtained through the draft? My league does "previous draft round -2" for retaining players, i.e. draft a player in the 6th and it will cost a 4th to keep them the following year. If an undrafted player obtained through waivers is to be kept, they will cost a 14th. These rules seem to be hastily thrown together by others in my league and it has already had an impact because I kept David Johnson for a 14th last season and had a fairly easy road to the championship. I've now been made commissioner and want to make some tweaks so that keepers don't give as big an advantage but don't know where the sweet spot is. There are currently two situations unfolding in my league that I can foresee being an issue:
tl,dr: How does your keeper league find a balance between retaining undrafted players vs retaining late-round draft picks if their value spikes the following season?
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Aug 9, 2017 20:17
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Teeter posted:Those of you in keeper leagues, how are waiver wire acquisitions valued the following year compared to players obtained through the draft? All of this defeats the purpose of keepers and if you're going to gently caress with things, just get rid of them altogether.
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Aug 9, 2017 20:19
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Matt Zerella posted:All of this defeats the purpose of keepers and if you're going to gently caress with things, just get rid of them altogether.  I just inherited this mess and want to slow the bleeding a bit for the upcoming season while potentially reverting back to redraft for next year. I still own DJ so it gives me a bit of leverage because any change I potentially implement will undoubtedly screw me over the hardest. Teeter fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 20:22
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Teeter posted:
You'll probably disband the league. Part of the fun of keepers is getting a stud like DJ that late and getting to keep them for a few years. Honestly once they're in a league its pretty much impossible to get rid of without upsetting a lot of people. Just do 3 year contracts (including the year you draft them), and 1 round penalties for each year kept. Maybe move waivers down to a 13th or 12th instead of a 14th.
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Aug 9, 2017 20:26
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RisqueBarber posted:I guess I didn't think the -3 int was such a big deal. I only mentioned the 6 point passing touchdown in my original post. What's the norm -2? You can request a custom form with -3 int. It's a minor difference from -2. The 6 point passing TD is the bigger deal. Also you can put an "x" or a number in the column to the left of the player's name and it will automatically black out or highlight that player.
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Aug 9, 2017 20:40
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I really like keeper settings that divide the round in half. So if a player was drafted in the 4th, they become a 2nd round pick. Undrafted players are equivalent to a 16th, so they end up in the 8th.
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Aug 9, 2017 20:42
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Pocket post, whoops.
MrSargent fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 20:46
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Cheapers Keepers: in 0.5 PPR ($200 budget) I'm going to be keeping AB for 32$ and Devonta Freeman for 20$ The question is. Do I keep Blount for 9$, or Matt Ryan for 6$ as a third keeper?
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Aug 9, 2017 21:03
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Hi I'm a dumb dork who doesn't Know Jack poo poo About Sports but still managed to place 1st then 2nd in my 2 only years of playing FF, greatly pissing off my friends who Know About Sports. I would like to continue this pattern of annoying said friends, would this be the place to ask for advice about who I should pick for my 2 keepers this season?  This is who I had at the end of last season: QB: Tom Brady, Derek Carr RB: Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, Jordan Howard WR: Michael Crabtree, DeAndre Hopkins, Cameron Meredith, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Wallace, Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry, Malcolm Mitchell K: Justin Tucker DEF: KC Thinkin' Brady and Freeman, am I stupid?
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Aug 9, 2017 21:05
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Stroop There It Is posted:Hi I'm a dumb dork who doesn't Know Jack poo poo About Sports but still managed to place 1st then 2nd in my 2 only years of playing FF, greatly pissing off my friends who Know About Sports. I would like to continue this pattern of annoying said friends, would this be the place to ask for advice about who I should pick for my 2 keepers this season? What are the keeper rules? Usually it is some variation of "you keep the player at the cost of a draft pick equal to the round they were drafted last year minus 1 round". Would need to know what round each of those people were drafted in.
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Aug 9, 2017 21:09
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Stroop There It Is posted:Hi I'm a dumb dork who doesn't Know Jack poo poo About Sports but still managed to place 1st then 2nd in my 2 only years of playing FF, greatly pissing off my friends who Know About Sports. I would like to continue this pattern of annoying said friends, would this be the place to ask for advice about who I should pick for my 2 keepers this season? What's the scoring and what is the cost to keep said keepers?
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Aug 9, 2017 21:10
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Stroop There It Is posted:Hi I'm a dumb dork who doesn't Know Jack poo poo About Sports but still managed to place 1st then 2nd in my 2 only years of playing FF, greatly pissing off my friends who Know About Sports. I would like to continue this pattern of annoying said friends, would this be the place to ask for advice about who I should pick for my 2 keepers this season? It depends on what keepers cost. Is it based on the round they are drafted or is it a flat one player costs the first round pick and two players your first two picks. It's a matter of maximizing your value. You have a lot if talent.
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Aug 9, 2017 21:12
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:You can request a custom form with -3 int. It's a minor difference from -2. The 6 point passing TD is the bigger deal. dang that owns thanks
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Aug 9, 2017 21:13
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:You can request a custom form Hey Beersheets can't handle positional ppr right? (wr = .5, rb = .75, te = 1)
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Aug 9, 2017 21:19
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Cheapers Keepers: I'd go Ryan.
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Aug 9, 2017 21:25
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89 posted:Not gonna lie. I was targetting TY hardcore. But with these Luck injury woes, unless he's there in the 3rd/4th...I just dunno. Sure, sure, some fair points against TY. For the person that asked the question, I'd go with "whomever your favorite receiver remaining is, then hope a top 3 qb bounces back. If not, grab another awesome WR in round 3." Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 21:48 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 21:45
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MrSargent posted:What are the keeper rules? Usually it is some variation of "you keep the player at the cost of a draft pick equal to the round they were drafted last year minus 1 round". Would need to know what round each of those people were drafted in. Marshmallow Blue posted:What's the scoring and what is the cost to keep said keepers? Sataere posted:It depends on what keepers cost. Is it based on the round they are drafted or is it a flat one player costs the first round pick and two players your first two picks. e: yup, that's it, checked last year's draft. Keepers just take up your last 1-2 picks. Other league info: head-to-head scoring, live draft, 1 w/r flex, anything else I should include? Stroop There It Is fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Aug 9, 2017 |
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Aug 9, 2017 21:56
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MacheteZombie posted:I'd keep Cam personally. That's the way I'm leaning, but so many people are down on him, and I haven't been following closely enough this off-season yo know what the cause is.
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Aug 9, 2017 22:06
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Hixalot posted:That's the way I'm leaning, but so many people are down on him, and I haven't been following closely enough this off-season yo know what the cause is. A mix of injury concern for his shoulder and his o-line still being poo poo.
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Aug 9, 2017 22:09
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Teeter posted:
We do waiver acquisitions as 9th round keeper value. You should reward someone for drafting well, with waiver pickups being rewarded less. There's typically a lot more information on a waiver pickup in mid-season than there is a guy being drafted in the 14th round. Keeper values should reflect that difference in player evaluation difficulty.
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Aug 9, 2017 23:32
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Stroop There It Is posted:Thanks guys. I'm pretty sure it's not based on what round they're drafted but I can't seem to find it on the lovely Yahoo settings page. I think last year it was some bullshit like keepers take up your LAST 2 picks. Those are interesting rules. How long are you able to keep someone? Like can you only keep someone for 2 years and then they go back into FA? Or can you keep them indefinitely? Personally I would keep Freeman and Howard as those are the most valuable guys on your team at this point, but could swap in Hopkins for Howard if WR looks to be thin from keepers.
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Aug 9, 2017 23:36
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https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/895356610071060481
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Aug 10, 2017 00:00
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I'm so torn. On the one hand, Ground Control really, really thinks Rawls is a good player. On the other hand, Lacy is literally the only guy who somehow ended up on every single dynasty team I had by the end of last season.
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Aug 10, 2017 00:04
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I thought prossise was gonna be next?
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Aug 10, 2017 00:05
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Draft all of them, you pussies
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Aug 10, 2017 00:07
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RisqueBarber posted:I thought prossise was gonna be next? Fantasy football rewards the patient
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Aug 10, 2017 00:13
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Papes posted:Fantasy football rewards the patient lol fantasy football rewards no one
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Aug 10, 2017 00:17
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Fantasy football rewards the ignorant that also forget to set their rosters for most of the year
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Aug 10, 2017 00:23
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89 posted:Draft all of them, you pussies Most of my team is handcuffs anyway, what are 3 more roster spots?
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Aug 10, 2017 00:34
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should we have a GDT for the preseason? guys! there's something resembling football on TV RIGHT NOW
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Aug 10, 2017 00:37
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New BeerSheets!MacheteZombie posted:Hey Beersheets can't handle positional ppr right? (wr = .5, rb = .75, te = 1) Not without me making a mess of things. You can fake it by requesting three sheets with the various PPRs and then copy/pasting it the way you want.
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Aug 10, 2017 01:11
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Ok just gathering some thoughts on a small thing i'm having. So last season in a league i commission, i approved a trade, was slightly lopsided but i paid it no thought really. But i just learned that the trade was manifested through a madden football game between the 2 parties, basically the winner of the madden game gets the better end of the deal. Neither ended up winning the league. Now honestly it's a bigger deal because the buy in for this league is $300 and i don't need outcomes coming down to who was better at playing madden. What would you guys do? Warning and if it happens again, kicked out?
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Aug 10, 2017 01:24
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Forever_Peace posted:I'm so torn. On the one hand, Ground Control really, really thinks Rawls is a good player. On the other hand, Lacy is literally the only guy who somehow ended up on every single dynasty team I had by the end of last season. Lol going all in on lacy
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Aug 10, 2017 01:31
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