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Doesn't Cabellos name translate as something like 'Beautiful Hair' in English?MullardEL34 posted:this hit may have originated in Cabello being pissed off over a twitter feud with Rubio. What an age we live in.
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Aug 14, 2017 01:30
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BeigeJacket posted:Doesn't Cabellos name translate as something like 'Beautiful Hair' in English?
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Aug 14, 2017 01:37
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BeigeJacket posted:Doesn't Cabellos name translate as something like 'Beautiful Hair' in English? Diosdado Cabello. "God-given hair".
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Aug 14, 2017 01:42
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lol if rubio is assassinated its cause for war
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Aug 14, 2017 01:46
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Baloogan posted:lol if rubio is assassinated its cause for war This may actually be the reason Trump mentioned the military option. Rubio is one of Trump's closest advisors on Venezuela. He's the reason Trump met with Leopoldo Lopez's wife at the White House. Trump had to have known about this long before the story hit the media. EDIT:  MullardEL34 fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Aug 14, 2017 |
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Aug 14, 2017 01:48
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Yeah, if the threat is credible, and any more hits on US government officials are done, the US is perfectly justified in doing anything militarily to venezuela, from commando raids to drone strikes to actively supporting and arming a violent resistance. This threat also perfectly justifies Trump saying military action is on the table. If Cabello's hit succeeds, or more are found to be ordered on US politicians, Cabello will have plunged venezuela into a war with the USA. edit: Just read that they got this info last month. I can see why Trump was so salty with Maduro if this was on his mind. Pharohman777 fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Aug 14, 2017 |
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Aug 14, 2017 03:54
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loving hell, if a high-ranking Chavista ordered a hit on Rubio that's a better casus belli than the U.S. has had against another nation since World War Two.
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Aug 14, 2017 04:30
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:loving hell, if a high-ranking Chavista ordered a hit on Rubio that's a better casus belli than the U.S. has had against another nation since World War Two. This is the PSUV, they absolutely can be this loving stupid.
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Aug 14, 2017 04:37
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:loving hell, if a high-ranking Chavista ordered a hit on Rubio that's a better casus belli than the U.S. has had against another nation since World War Two. Saddam famously tried to kill Dubya's daddy. If an attempt was made, there obviously needs to be some sort of response, but any military action would be pretty dramatic overkill for an order that didn't lead to any harm. We don't even know how serious any plan was yet. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 04:46 on Aug 14, 2017 |
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Aug 14, 2017 04:41
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I would hope nobody is loving dumb enough to accept the contract. If you can't get Russia or China to protect you you're gonna get got eventually.
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Aug 14, 2017 04:58
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Sinteres posted:Saddam famously tried to kill Dubya's daddy. If an attempt was made, there obviously needs to be some sort of response, but any military action would be pretty dramatic overkill for an order that didn't lead to any harm. We don't even know how serious any plan was yet. Like at one level you could argue this is a personal beef because it kind of is and thus isn't the Venezuelan state sanctioning the assassination of a sitting US senator but a) Diosdado is high-ranking enough that his actions are hard to separate from those of the government of Venezuela and b) should the attempt even be made regardless of success at a bare minimum I'd expect they demand Diosdado be extradited and if refused some loving savage sanctions against the PDVSA.
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Aug 14, 2017 05:08
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Venezuela seems more like Germany than Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan. The people know what democracy looks like, they know how to run it, it's just the process has been hijacked by a bunch of greedy thugs. If you could get rid of the thugs and give a bit of breathing room for free and fair elections, it sounds like the country would be able to right itself. I think this is a rare case where intervention might work if the US wasn't run by a nepotistic idiot and distracted with the loving foreverwars we have found ourselves in. edit: Yes I know this is a bad idea, just that relative to the other hornets nests we've stuck our dicks into it's a better setup.
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Aug 14, 2017 05:35
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Chuck Boone posted:Yes, I do. (EDIT: The stuff about the CNE that you quoted in your reply will be in today's update). Thank you!
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Aug 14, 2017 07:03
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This speech might be one of the other reasons Cabello is so pissed off at Rubio. It also contains a warning to Maduro that he might be overthrown by others in the PSUV when he is no longer useful to them. One of the most likely candidates to carry that out is Cabello himself. https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/893154320249704449 Full speech here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBKrmHX-HzI MullardEL34 fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Aug 14, 2017 |
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Aug 14, 2017 08:17
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The Orgasm Sanction posted:The people know what democracy looks like, they know how to run it, it's just the process has been hijacked by a bunch of greedy thugs. If you could get rid of the thugs and give a bit of breathing room for free and fair elections, it sounds like the country would be able to right itself. The economy is hosed though. The entire government and bureaucracy could be replaced by a perfect team of saints and things in Venezeula would still suck very much for quite a long time.
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Aug 14, 2017 12:16
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The Lone Badger posted:The economy is hosed though. The entire government and bureaucracy could be replaced by a perfect team of saints and things in Venezeula would still suck very much for quite a long time. Even taking the economy back to a positive GDP growth rate would take years to accomplish.
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Aug 14, 2017 15:25
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The Lone Badger posted:The economy is hosed though. The entire government and bureaucracy could be replaced by a perfect team of saints and things in Venezeula would still suck very much for quite a long time. Better to start the recovery as soon as possible because this crater is only getting deeper. I suppose you could have industry from other countries come in and revamp the oil infrastructure and take a reasonable percentage for a decade recoup costs. With prices as they are, you need efficiency and volume to use oil to support the economy. It boggles the mind that the regime has let that go to poo poo when it's their golden goose. The Orgasm Sanction fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Aug 14, 2017 |
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Aug 14, 2017 17:39
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Cabello possibly threatening Rubio's life is probably just dumb bravado, I don't think it needs to be taken seriously at all and holding it up as a possible causus belli is ridiculous. The US is not going to intervene in Venezuela nor should anyone in anyway be in favor of that.
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Aug 15, 2017 00:37
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Gozinbulx posted:Cabello possibly threatening Rubio's life is probably just dumb bravado, I don't think it needs to be taken seriously at all and holding it up as a possible causus belli is ridiculous. I'm inclined to agree. Anyone that's been keeping a close eye in Venezuela probably agrees Cabello is either the head or very near the top of a massive drug trafficking ring, on top of all the other ways he's stealing money from the state. If the US is still on the fence about imposing harsher sanctions on PDVSA, which is arguably the only thing that could break the PSUV's choke hold aside from an invasion (which is silly), he'd have to be monumentally stupid to do something as asinine as ordering a hit on a senator. My guess is Diosdado made an offhand comment or two about dealing with Rubio and somehow that made its way to the US authorities, who increased the senator's security because it's protocol. To be fair, I don't think the Venezuelan government is made up of criminal masterminds, but I'm pretty drat sure they don't want to rock the boat enough to justify harsher sanctions or more. At the moment, they're loving Venezuelans pretty hard, but as long as they don't make too much of a mess outside our borders, chances are they can still play kings of the hill on local soil for a while.
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Aug 15, 2017 01:06
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While you're probably right, you have to realize that Diosdado almost certainly thinks he's an all powerful God. Some egomaniacal motherfucker like him is not going to reason the same way you will. I mean, Pablo Escobar tried to become president of Colombia FFS and tried to assassinate the president. Diosdado has basically done the same and become the ruler of Venezuela. I'm sure he thinks he's infallible and invincible, just look at the way that piece of poo poo talks.
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Aug 15, 2017 07:48
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It's possible or even likely that this plan never extended far beyond a guy grumbling to his subordinates, but "nobody would be stupid enough to do that" has a really bad track record in reality.
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Aug 15, 2017 15:32
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The original plan and the responses to it are all nothing more than some really low-effort Tom Clancy fanfiction. It's the least important thing happening relating to Venezuela atm.
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Aug 15, 2017 15:35
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:The original plan and the responses to it are all nothing more than some really low-effort Tom Clancy fanfiction. It's the least important thing happening relating to Venezuela atm. If it had actually been carried out it would have been very important. None of us really know how far the plan progressed.
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Aug 15, 2017 15:37
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Sinteres posted:If it had actually been carried out it would have been very important. None of us really know how far the plan progressed. Yeah it's 100% laughable and ridiculous but Diosdado certainly has the criminal connections to attempt such a thing and no matter how much of a cringing shitweasel he is Rubio's a sitting US Senator and the current administration is just loving itching to find something they can call a 'win' (never mind the details). At the barest minimum as one of the highest-ranking officials in a country you should not even be JOKING about having a legislator from your most important trade partner killed.
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Aug 15, 2017 17:20
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Sinteres posted:It's possible or even likely that this plan never extended far beyond a guy grumbling to his subordinates, but "nobody would be stupid enough to do that" has a really bad track record in reality. "Will no one rid me of this meddlesome Senator?"
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Aug 16, 2017 01:20
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Do you guys have any recommendations for great articles on why Chavez's socialist platform failed?
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Aug 16, 2017 22:52
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Grouchio posted:Do you guys have any recommendations for great articles on why Chavez's socialist platform failed? Here's your article: 1) His cronies stole billions 2) Oil stopped being expensive
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Aug 17, 2017 01:29
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fishmech posted:Here's your article: He also gave billions to other countries in exchange for support.
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Aug 17, 2017 01:31
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fishmech posted:Here's your article: 3. He nationalized countless numbers of businesses and handed them off to his cronies, who either 1. looted them for anything that was worth stealing 2. ran them into the ground through sheer incompetence. Occasionally a combination of both occurred.
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Aug 17, 2017 01:58
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fishmech posted:Here's your article: It's far more complicated than this. Why isn't Russia in the same boat? How come the Venezuelan economy continues to fall despite oil making a small recovery? Chavez set in excessive regulations and price-controls that made it extraordinarily difficult to run a profitable business. Most of the ones that somehow managed were repatriated. If people are unable to make a living off of a productive business, that business will shut down. It will cease to be productive. This is what is really at the heart of the economic crisis: Chavez made production counter-productive. The economy was propped up by the high price of oil, and when that dropped the whole thing collapsed. Other authoritarian petro-states had hardship but since their economies were still functional on some level they were able to endure it. Putin is as much a thief and despot as Maduro but he never attempted to micromanage the economy in the manner the PSUV has.
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Aug 17, 2017 02:06
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DoctorStrangelove posted:It's far more complicated than this. Why isn't Russia in the same boat? How come the Venezuelan economy continues to fall despite oil making a small recovery? Because Russia has plenty of stuff besides Just (lovely) Oil behind their economy as well as the ability to do agricultural self-sufficiency and a far lesser reliance on imports in general. Also a ton of Russia's stolen wealth stays in Russia. Russia was simply nowhere near as reliant on oil or buying things with oil. Also you know, Russia never literally let their oil infrastructure fall apart, making it hard to sell their oil, like Venezulea did.
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Aug 17, 2017 03:03
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Also Russia is still a little hosed vs perma-mega hosed.
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Aug 17, 2017 03:16
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PotatoJudge posted:Also Russia is still a little hosed vs perma-mega hosed. This too, I mean Russia's been terrible to live in for... basically forever, but also specifically since the Soviet Union collapsed and such. But still if you are a Russian you can drive to work in Russian made cars on Russian drilled and refined gas, work with a Russian company manufacturing clothing you wear, go home and on your way stop by a store stocked with plenty of Russian food and other Russian-made goods. Maybe you could have bought import versions of all of those and they would be higher quality, but if the borders closed to imports tomorrow morning you could get by. When was the last time a Venezuelan could get all that, made in Venezuela, at normal stores, well-stocked?
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Aug 17, 2017 03:29
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It's almost surreal to think that just two weeks ago over a dozen people died in clashes over the Constituent Assembly election and that the country seemed to be teetering on the edge of civil war. The protest movement that saw three months of daily protests is essentially dead now and the country seems to have settled into another stage of the crisis with the Constituent Assembly firmly in power. The big news today was that the SEBIN (the regime's political police) raided the home of former attorney general Luisa Ortega Diaz and her husband, former PSUV National Assemly deputy German Ferrer (he quit the regime's legislative bloc in early August over the fact that Maduro's a dictator). Ortega Diaz and her husband weren't home when the raid happened. The raid came shortly after Diosdado Cabello went to the Public Ministry to formally accuse Ortega Diaz of running a criminal enterprise as attorney general. Cabello says that he has all kinds of evidence (including original documents and recordings) proving that Ortega Diaz, her husband and other people were involved in an extortion racket where they would threaten companies with prosecution unless they were paid a fee. The thing to remember here is that Ortega Diaz was appointed attorney general by Chavez in 2007, and for ten years she faithfully carried out her duties and acted as an important arm of the Chavez and Maduro regimes. She helped to lock hundreds, maybe thousands of political dissidents, including high-profile names like Leopoldo Lopez, Antonio Ledezma, and Maria Lourdes Afiuni. For ten years her word was law, and Chavez and Maduro were able to remain in power in part due to her efforts. It wasn't until March 31 that Ortega Diaz grew a conscience and came out against the regime. Since then, she's made lots of public statements to the effect that Maduro is a dictator, and has become an important critic of the regime. Totally not by coincidence, it wasn't until after March 31 that the PSUV realized that Ortega Diaz was actually an insane criminal psychopath who had no business running the Public Ministry. She was eventually impeached by the Supreme Court and replaced by the Constituent Assembly with Tarek William Saab just ten days ago. I think the regime is fully aware of the fact that anyone with a brain cell can see that the reason why they're going after Ortega Diaz is to retaliate against her for speaking out against Maduro. Cabello told reporters today that none of this has anything to do with her political views, so that's all settled. The other big news is that the Constituent Assembly is opening investigations against every single opposition candidate for the regional elections over their roles in the protests. The head of the Constituent Assembly (Delcy Rodriguez) said that the point of the investigations is to "stop those who have called for violence from taking office". I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd bet that 100% of the opposition candidates running in the regional elections will be found to have "called for violence". Grouchio posted:Do you guys have any recommendations for great articles on why Chavez's socialist platform failed? If you're up for a longer read, I recommend "The Magical State" by Fernando Coronil. The book is a little on the academic side and it was published in 1997, but I think that it does a really good job at contextualizing the problems that Chavez took over and worsened throughout his presidency. It's been a while since I've read it, but I think the book will give you a really good understanding of the damaging role that oil has played in Venezuelan economic and political history.
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Aug 17, 2017 03:39
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PotatoJudge posted:Also Russia is still a little hosed vs perma-mega hosed. Eh, Russia seems to have come out of its recession, and its economic stats look generally all decent. If anything counter-sanctions and cheaper oil might have been a blessing in disguise, it forced Russian consumers to buy less imported products while making Russian exports cheaper. The central government took a hit to revenue but seems to have generally been able to recover. If anything weaning itself off of import is what Russia actually needs in the long-term. (That said, far from everything is made in Russia, it just has the capacity to make most of its imports domestically. It still the world's largest country, and it still has a well-developed industrial infrastructure.) As for Venezuela, I would still say as I said previously, price controls and exports relying on a single volatile good. During the 2000s, Venezuela importing most of their essential goods wasn't an issue since their balance of trade was so positive that it encouraged them to experiment with price controls on basic goods. However, price controls, especially after 2012/2013 encouraged over-buying as their market value diverged from their official value, this forced supply shortages as the government drained its reserves to facilitate import purchases. As the price of oil declined, the government was forced in an even more precarious position, in response the government steadily drained its reserves while the Bolivar was allowed to essentially collapse. In addition, the government took on a giant debt burden (from China/GS and other creditors) to keep the entire system "running." That said, at this point, the system is completely screwed and I admit it is hard to see how Venezuela gets out of its situation, especially if they keep price controls on benzene going. Venezuela's oil production is still weak and there is little vertical integration. At a certain point even if you get rid of the PSUV, you are going to keep being broke if you need to deliver your crude to foreign sources in order for it to be refined and then have tore-delivery to yourself to re-sell to the public for a fraction of its market value. Theoretically, it is "giving the nation's wealth back to the people" but it is doing in one of the most inefficient methods possible. (Also, the Ruble is a floating currency and when oil declined, there was natural flexibility in prices. In contrast, the Bolivar is completely brittle and its peg to the dollar was completely disastrous. Basically, the PSUV has no idea how economics works, even Marxist-Leninism.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 05:00 on Aug 17, 2017 |
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Aug 17, 2017 04:20
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DoctorStrangelove posted:It's far more complicated than this. Why isn't Russia in the same boat? How come the Venezuelan economy continues to fall despite oil making a small recovery? Well, as far as industry goes, the Russia system of corruption skims a shitload off the top of pretty much everything (like Venezuela) but normally doesn't grab successful industries just to liquidate them for quick cash and (as you say) attempt to micromanage the economy. Presumably the Russian oligarchs understand that, for example, if they stop maintaining the oil infrastructure and stop paying qualified people to run the companies involved in it they'll kill the golden goose and there will be far less money to steal in the long run.
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Aug 17, 2017 04:21
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It is also untrue that oil is the only thing that Venezuela has. They're just not being exploited by the government and have largely been given out to Chinese, Russian and Brazilian companies. Venezuela could have diversified its economy if only its past 4 rulers haven't been complete idiots. In other news, Wuilly Arteaga, a young man who was imprisoned and tortured for weeks over the crime of "playing a violin at protests" (yes, really). He was the poster boy for the opposition while imprisoned being one of the clearest examples of human right abuses the government has committed in the past couple of months. He was released yesterday on a commuted sentence. I didn't notice this because some of the usual MUD sources seem to have completely ignored it. https://twitter.com/AlbertoRT51/status/897864595032899585 Turns out, he came out with strong words against the MUD leadership in a press release yesterday. He called them out for being "fake", and said that the real heroes are in jail or dead. This resulted in the Venezuelan Twitter sphere going at him like they usually do with anyone who disapproves of the poo poo the MUD has been doing, jewels like "suma y no restes" and "y tu que propones?" were repeated ad nauseum. The MUD have shielded themselves from critique just like Maduro has and it is shocking how blindly a group of people are following them despite how this is the third time in recent memory they've completely turned around on a move that would have resulted in the end of the dictatorship.
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Aug 17, 2017 08:05
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fnox posted:It is also untrue that oil is the only thing that Venezuela has. They're just not being exploited by the government and have largely been given out to Chinese, Russian and Brazilian companies. Venezuela could have diversified its economy if only its past 4 rulers haven't been complete idiots. I absolutely hate the Venezuelan mentality, and I'm sure I'm not the only venegoon that does. Basically, you'll see Venezuelans going "WHY AREN'T WE DOING SOMETHING WE NEED TO TAKE THE STREETS" then when people take the streets, the very same loud idiots will then offer: "why take the streets like this? It's useless and it's annoying me and my regular lovely day to day". Basically the regular Venezuelan will complain and be against absolutely everything, but will provide zero alternatives or support. I've literally purged 90% of my old Venezuelan aquaintances from social media because I can't loving stand their attitude. Obviously I'm in Spain and I do very little to help my Homeland (whereas people like Chuck are doing their best from outside and actually helping), but I'm also not part of the loud, useless complain machine we've become.
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Aug 17, 2017 08:20
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What are the odds of places like Venezuela and Brazil falling into civil war?
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Aug 17, 2017 17:04
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Why would Brazil have a civil war?
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Aug 17, 2017 18:31
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