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RVProfootballer posted:Why? Despite the Lamp injury, o-line can't be worse, right? Keenan being back, Henry having another year in the league, Tyrell being involved from the start, etc, all point to an even better overall offense than last year. Volume will be there. Workhorse volume of touches, heavy pass game involvement, big play breaking potential and plenty of goal line carries on a team that figures to have a strong offense with lots of positive game script makes it hard to see a scenario where he finishes outside the top ten RBs, barring injury. He may not be on Bell or DJ's level in terms of talent, but he's still a pretty good player, and in one of the best overall fantasy situations for an RB in the league. If people want to dismiss him because of YPC or other bad box score scouting arguments, I'm more than happy to have him fall to me. At this point, I have a hard time not selecting Gordon as the #3 overall RB. Zeke is missing half the fantasy season McCoy might be in the trading block, and Buffalo is looking like a dumpster fire who might be starting a rookie QB fairly early on Freeman is still splitting touches with Coleman, and the Atlanta offense is almost certainly going to see heavy regression after putting together a historically great season I have been a big buyer of Ajayi this season as a great end of second RB tier pick, but Miami's o-line is worrisome, and the potential for a terrible offense if Cutler implodes or gets hurt brings concerns as well
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Aug 18, 2017 20:14
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Forever_Peace posted:Yeah, the situation is pretty darned good. But a dozen guys hit 1000 rushing yards last year and Gordon wasn't one of them (though 41 catches certainly helps!). Also pretty easy to see his touchdown numbers drop if more red zone options are healthy. He could easily live up to a 9th overall pick but there is risk that he doesn't. Gordon also only played 13 games last year
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Aug 18, 2017 20:15
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RVProfootballer posted:Why? Despite the Lamp injury, o-line can't be worse, right? Keenan being back, Henry having another year in the league, Tyrell being involved from the start, etc, all point to an even better overall offense than last year. Volume will be there. That's precisely what I'm saying. Lots of yards, nothing sexy, and those touchdowns are destined to collapse. He'll be like RB13 or 14, easy, but calling him top-five and acting like the touchdowns won't collapse with a billion pass catchers in San Diego kind of smacks of wishcrafting. I didn't say he's bad. It's just pure touchdown regression and him being just okay will drive him down. Spoeank fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Aug 18, 2017 |
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Aug 18, 2017 20:26
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Cervixalot posted:Gordon also only played 13 games last year My bad, genuinely forgot this.
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Aug 18, 2017 20:45
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pubic works project posted:Oh boy, I sure do love being a commissioner and having last minute drop-outs!! Especially when one draft is tonight. Brutal. That totally sucks. Happened so much, I find an alternate for every league I run, just in case Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Aug 18, 2017 |
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Aug 18, 2017 22:55
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pubic works project posted:Oh boy, I sure do love being a commissioner and having last minute drop-outs!! Especially when one draft is tonight. I don't want to join another league (I'm already in 6) but if you need someone to draft instead of an auto draft, I'd be willing.
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Aug 18, 2017 23:00
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I appreciate everyone that's stepped up. I finally got everything filled. The league that drafts tonight is full of members of a private club I work at. Half of us will be present and everyone else is using their phones. The other is a live auction league. I think I have someone to step up though. It drafts Sunday so I have a day or so to find someone.
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Aug 18, 2017 23:17
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What's everybody's favorite auction strategy? Drunk Nerds was nice enough to let me in on his auction league! But, I'm not gonna lie. I dunno what I'm really doing with an auction based draft, lol. I've got a couple of strategies but I'm most like 
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Aug 18, 2017 23:55
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Spoeank posted:That's precisely what I'm saying. Lots of yards, nothing sexy, and those touchdowns are destined to collapse. He'll be like RB13 or 14, easy, but calling him top-five and acting like the touchdowns won't collapse with a billion pass catchers in San Diego kind of smacks of wishcrafting. Sure, touchdowns will likely drop, but let's see where that leaves him. He played 12 healthy games (three carries in the 13th), went roughly 250-1000-10 rushing and 40-400-2 receiving, for a 16 game line of roughly 330-1300-13 and 55-550-2.5. Might be more volume than he actually receives, but let's go with it. So no improvement in efficiency, just same straight numbers, and cut his touchdowns by half to 8 total. That's ~290 points in PPR, ~235 standard, good for almost identical to Demarco at RB#5 last year. So what else gives, in addition to touchdowns, to drop him so far? High RB2 is like ~200-210 points in PPR, so you're going to need to shave off a ton of volume or efficiency or assume injury to drop him there. Can you scoop off 600 yards, 20 catches, and 8 touchdowns from his full season pace last year? He was RB#7 even after missing a quarter of the year, a lot has to go wrong this year compared to last for him to not return RB1 numbers. Edit: Just to be clear, a lot totally could go wrong! I just think the "touchdown regression will sink Gordon" narrative has gone a little too far, and (full disclosure) I bought a lot of shares of him in dynasty precisely because I think people are sleeping on how good he can be even after assuming he'll score far fewer touchdowns. sourdough fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Aug 19, 2017 |
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Aug 19, 2017 00:08
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If only there was someone to scoop up 600 yards and 8 touchdowns who wasn't there last year, necessitating running a lot more and is also named Keenan Allen
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Aug 19, 2017 00:43
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In which I undermine my own point because lmao 9 games over 2 seasons cmon keenan I'm not gonna do Gordon bc his numbers would be all outta whack because of how jekyll & hyde his two seasons were
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Aug 19, 2017 00:47
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Spoeank posted:If only there was someone to scoop up 600 yards and 8 touchdowns who wasn't there last year, necessitating running a lot more and is also named Keenan Allen I mean, I guess? But Dontrelle Inman isn't going to put up 58-810-4 again and Tyrell Williams isn't going to get 69-1059-7 again. It isn't like the quantity of production in the receiving game dropped much (any?) without Keenan, it just went to scrubs that will disappear now that he's back. Drop Inman entirely, give Tyrell his line, and give Keenan Tyrell's line. There ya go! Keenan will actually do a bit better because he's awesome, though  85-1200-8, book it. Chargers were still top 12 in passing percentage last season, and pretty identical raw percentage as 2014 and not a huge dip from 2015 (with rookie year version of Gordon as their ball carrier lol). I know you aren't super seriously arguing against him here, but you should reassess your half-serious opinion!
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Aug 19, 2017 01:04
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Please tell me how much I hosed this team up. 10 team, 2QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLX/1DST, Half PPR. I had the second pick in the draft. I dig this team. I'm not super high on Gordon but by the end of the season with Elliot back and (hopefully) a healthy Luck you should be steamrolling dudes left and right. I just had a draft for a similar league (same as yours but with 12 teams and 1PPR) and used your sheets, I think you did better than I did (I drafted 3rd): QB: Aaron Rodgers (1), Matt Ryan (2), Deshaun Watson (11) RB: Bilal Powell (6), Frank Gore (9), Joe Williams (14), Alvin Kamara (15) WR: Michael Crabtree (4), Jamison Crowder (7), Randall Cobb (8), Mike Wallace (10), Robby Anderson (13) TE: Gronk (3), Travis Kelce (5), Jack Doyle (12) DST: Jacksonville (16) My RB corp is pretty dire even though I'm pretty high on Powell, but with two top 5 QBs and two top 3 TEs I think I'll be able to find another RB if Gore dies early on and neither of my lottery tickets break through. I thought my WRs were pretty bad but I'm also pretty high on Robby Anderson, who I think will get lots of receptions purely because he's the only halfway decent receiver on that trash-fire of a team.
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Aug 19, 2017 02:49
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89 posted:What's everybody's favorite auction strategy? Drunk Nerds was nice enough to let me in on his auction league! If you're able to pick who goes up, pick a kicker. Either you get your kicker out of the way (you'll need to get one sooner or later) or someone else bids up and wastes an extra dollar on a kicker. If you get a kicker that way, then start with Defenses, and then nominate guys you don't want. the more guys you don't want who get put up for auction, the less money that other people have when guys you *do* want get put up.
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Aug 19, 2017 02:58
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DC Murderverse posted:I dig this team. I'm not super high on Gordon but by the end of the season with Elliot back and (hopefully) a healthy Luck you should be steamrolling dudes left and right. Unless I'm missing something with TEs in that league, grabbing Kelce was kind of a waste of a pick. MrSargent fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Aug 19, 2017 |
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Aug 19, 2017 03:35
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Thomas Rawls isn't playing tonight. Eddie Lacy got the start, played one drive and got replaced by seventh-round rookie Chris Carson with the first team. Remove Eddie Lacy from your draft boards.
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Aug 19, 2017 03:45
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MrSargent posted:Unless I'm missing something with TEs in that league, grabbing Kelce was kind of a waste of a pick. The flex slot is WR/RB/TE so he fits in there.
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Aug 19, 2017 03:46
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So I just finished my first league draft. 14 team auction league. 6 pt TDs across the board. 1PPR. The cap was $250 per everyone's request. QB - Rivers ($1) RB - DJ ($101) RB - Ty Montgomery ($32) WR - Alshon ($54) WR - Tyreek Hill ($16) TE - Ertz ($2) Flex - Blount ($10) K - Blair Walsh ($1) D/ST - Miami ($1) B - Crowder ($8) B - DeVante Parker ($5) B - Riddick ($3) B - Kareem Hunt ($3) B - Moncrief ($3) B - Cameron Meredith ($4) B - Duke Johnson ($2) So how much did I gently caress up? I wasn't paying attention for a bit and accidentally bid/got stuck with Meredith and Duke. I had $4 left over and I felt like I could have snagged a couple of better players. Also I have a guy who for some reason is desperate to get Blount off me. He's got Brees and Brady. If I can swing a Blount/Rivers for Brady/JStew that's a mash right?
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Aug 19, 2017 04:03
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Benne posted:Thomas Rawls isn't playing tonight. Eddie Lacy got the start, played one drive and got replaced by seventh-round rookie Chris Carson with the first team. Eddie Lacy gonna drown his sorrows in a bunch of China Food tonight
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Aug 19, 2017 04:13
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Benne posted:Thomas Rawls isn't playing tonight. Eddie Lacy got the start, played one drive and got replaced by seventh-round rookie Chris Carson with the first team. it should be noted that this is not what happened, and Lacy and Carson were switching drives. Lacy came back later. I mean, still don't draft Eddie Lacy but
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Aug 19, 2017 04:54
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Sataere, Drunk Nerds and I are GOON PROJECTing a website and I present to you the best/worst thing you will read all day, courtesy of Drunk Nerds https://footballabsurdity.com/2017/08/18/hunter-henry-hippos-the-ultimate-fantasy-football-team-name-guide/
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Aug 19, 2017 04:57
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So I feel fine everywhere else but who would you target at the 3/4 turn in a league this year? That early middle just feels full of landlines. 12team league no ppr so like 30-40 adp.
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Aug 19, 2017 05:00
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Willninho posted:So I feel fine everywhere else but who would you target at the 3/4 turn in a league this year? That early middle just feels full of landlines. 12team league no ppr so like 30-40 adp. What website? expert rankings drive the picks at the top of the draft so it kinda depends on what site you play on
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Aug 19, 2017 05:02
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Nfl.com
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Aug 19, 2017 05:03
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Willninho posted:So I feel fine everywhere else but who would you target at the 3/4 turn in a league this year? That early middle just feels full of landlines. 12team league no ppr so like 30-40 adp. Do what I did in one of my leagues. I traded my 3rd and 4th to another guy for his 1st and 8th. Problem solved and I honestly don't feel like I'll miss much in those rounds I can't find somewhere else.
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Aug 19, 2017 05:06
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Willninho posted:Nfl.com So this is what NFL.com has for ranks in that area:  If I came out with DT and Hyde in the third/fourth I would be as happy as a pig in poo poo. Crabtree, Alshon, Pryor are also good options there. I would avoid CJ Anderson, Landry and maybe McCaffery (each person has their own opinion on that guy). If you're feeling iffy about the players there you could secure a stud TE or stud QB by taking Kelce or Rodgers. I know what you mean about being iffy about the players there, though.
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Aug 19, 2017 05:07
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pubic works project posted:So I just finished my first league draft. 14 team auction league. 6 pt TDs across the board. 1PPR. The cap was $250 per everyone's request. I actually like your team a lot aside from Hill. Duke is a fine pick in PPR and Meredith did well enough last season. I think Crowder is going to be your main WR2 until Cutler and Parker start to really connect.
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Aug 19, 2017 05:56
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Hey Beer do you only do sheets requests through reddit? I have a really unique league setup I've been curious what the sheets have to say about it. I requested it a couple years in a row with no fulfillment 
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Aug 19, 2017 05:59
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pubic works project posted:So I just finished my first league draft. 14 team auction league. 6 pt TDs across the board. 1PPR. The cap was $250 per everyone's request. That bench is fully sick for a 14 team PPR league. Blount is bad, especially in PPR, so get rid if you can. If no one picked up Jamaal Williams, you probably should to have some insurance for Montgomery. Hopefully all your high upside bench WRs hit decently and you can use one or two of them to get an RB upgrade.
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Aug 19, 2017 06:19
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Spoeank posted:Hey Beer do you only do sheets requests through reddit? I have a really unique league setup I've been curious what the sheets have to say about it. I requested it a couple years in a row with no fulfillment Did you do it through the form? I automatically run everything and post it to the custom folder at the top of each update.
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Aug 19, 2017 13:00
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Is SleeperBot worth installing this year, or is there a better app for emergency information?
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Aug 19, 2017 13:04
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DC Murderverse posted:I dig this team. I'm not super high on Gordon but by the end of the season with Elliot back and (hopefully) a healthy Luck you should be steamrolling dudes left and right. I think you made a mistake getting so many TEs. Had you gotten someone else instead of Gronk I think you would be a lot stronger, and Doyle is also a waste. Outside of QB and TE you are looking shaky. The problem with drafting a TE for your flex is that it forces you to play him. Now you lose out on all the flexibility of your bench. I tried it awhile ago and hated it.
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Aug 19, 2017 13:08
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Please tell me how much I hosed this team up. 10 team, 2QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLX/1DST, Half PPR. I had the second pick in the draft. I would be really interested to see this draft board because I'm incredulous that you were able to get Gordon at pick #19 and Elliot at #39
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Aug 19, 2017 13:09
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Is SleeperBot worth installing this year, or is there a better app for emergency information? Sleeperbot is good, just wish they would stop sending alerts for FFGUYS site or whatever.
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Aug 19, 2017 13:17
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89 posted:What's everybody's favorite auction strategy? Drunk Nerds was nice enough to let me in on his auction league! Thats pretty much it. Auctions vary so much you pretty much have to go in with a , get 2-4 guys youre in love with, then round your team out with good values.Just nominate players you don't want in positions you are yet to fill(except kicker and defense. Just wait on those.) Ignore any cutesy tips from pundits like "nominate someone you want before the market is set" and such. Nearly all FF writers are snake draft first, auction as an afterthought, so they don't get the volume of auctions necessary to see that these cutesy things that work once or twice don't work in the long run. Also, make sure your webcam works, bring drinks if you are a drinker, and prepare to laugh your rear end off.
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Aug 19, 2017 14:46
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The piece of really great auction advice I've seen is to be aware that overpayment is most likely to occur when the number of bidders is high. It's a good reason not to start the bidding for studs at absurd steals: it encourages more people to get involved in bidding for that player. I like to start the bidding high enough that there's only room for one or two people to raise before the value seems fair. In eBay auctions, low starting prices often result in higher ultimate prices as people get invested in not losing the bid. Anecdotally, I've found that players at the end of tiers tend to go for a lot as folks get afraid of missing out. I often try to get my guys before the tier runs out, or if the value isn't there, double up on the next tier down. Also anecdotally, I've seen early QBs go petty cheap sometimes. People are so ingrained on waiting for QB, they get nervous dropping a good chunk for a QB as their first player.
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Aug 19, 2017 15:05
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Forever_Peace posted:The piece of really great auction advice I've seen is to be aware that overpayment is most likely to occur when the number of bidders is high. It's a good reason not to start the bidding for studs at absurd steals: it encourages more people to get involved in bidding for that player. I like to start the bidding high enough that there's only room for one or two people to raise before the value seems fair. In eBay auctions, low starting prices often result in higher ultimate prices as people get invested in not losing the bid. I like the description of tier pricing as "u-shaped." Heard it described that way in a couple of places (Living the Stream, IIRC). Basically the first guy and the last guy nominated from a given positional tier will have higher prices than the guys in the middle- people will bid up the first guy up (since he's opening up a new tier) and the last guy (so as to not lose out on that tier) but the second or third guys will probably go for slight discounts as everyone tells themselves "oh, I can grab so-and-so next in the same tier, I won't engage in a bidding war now."
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Aug 19, 2017 15:15
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God that auction draft last night was HILARIOUS! We had one guy constantly trying to drive the price up for players and got stuck with half of them. Another was autodrafting and somehow got 3 kickers. Someone nominated RG3 and the 3 kickers guy bid on him and got him. Oh and someone spent $17 on Big Rape.
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Aug 19, 2017 15:21
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Hey guys, the ISO:FT beer league is looking for 2-4 more players to join us for season 4! The basic premise is that instead of traditional dues, every person pledges a box of a minimum $50 worth of local craft beer. At the end of the season, everyone ships their boxes to the winners. If you've never done beer trading or anything that's shouldn't be a problem, there is plenty of time before you'll actually need to ship and we can show you the ropes. As far as league settings, it's pretty standard .5 PPR QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 Def, 1 K. If you're interested, shoot me a PM or check out the thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3830042
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Aug 19, 2017 17:03
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Forever_Peace posted:The piece of really great auction advice I've seen is to be aware that overpayment is most likely to occur when the number of bidders is high. It's a good reason not to start the bidding for studs at absurd steals: it encourages more people to get involved in bidding for that player. I like to start the bidding high enough that there's only room for one or two people to raise before the value seems fair. In eBay auctions, low starting prices often result in higher ultimate prices as people get invested in not losing the bid. I've been doing an auction league for 8 years. It's definitely super interesting to see people get emotionally attached to players they're bidding on. That brief little split second where they own the player digs itself into their brain. On top of that, everyone comes into the draft with a "sleeper" or two that they're too emotionally invested in, and they end up spending so much on the player that their "sleep" HAS to meet their ceiling to meet the price they paid. Generally, it seems like the first couple of studs end up being decent value. It's easy to let Julio go when Antonio is still on the board, but if the next best receiver is like Alshon Jeffrey, everyone goes nuts. The last major stud is always overpriced and then suddenly what looked like an overpay early in the draft looks good in comparison. The middle tiers always seem to be good value. Everyone who missed out on the studs is usually still in shock that a player they KNEW they would get for $45 ended up going for $60 and oh my god, someone paid $75 for *insert best player* and the guys who got the studs but went way over budget are somewhat reeling because they got emotional and blew their budget so they just stop bidding for a few rounds. Then everyone blinks and realizes that there's only the Woodheads and Riddicks of the world left, and they spend $30+ because they literally have no RB2. Also, you're dead on about QBs. No one budgets for QBs so the first couple of elite QBs go for nothing. It's the same exact thing every year in my league and yet somehow we all leave the draft confused at what just happened. I looked back at the seasons I won, and it's always been that I slightly overpaid for an early elite WR, reluctantly drafted an elite QB for great value, and loaded up my bench with high upside backup RBs. So that's what I'll be doing this year. Antonio and probably Brees.
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Aug 19, 2017 17:12
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