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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I'm not even clear how you think kids in silicon valley would even get to work on airplanes? The people that would work on airplanes would be engineers that work at airplane companies. Yeah. The companies that are putting the most money and effort into autonomous cars are... automakers and suppliers. The company that's mulling over autonomous passenger aircraft is Boeing. This idea that Silicon Valley techbros are out to disrupt all these industries is a weird strawman that doesn't seem to have any basis in reality. Are "tech" companies investing in this stuff? Yeah, but they're not the ones that are likely to actually bring it to market at this point.
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Aug 21, 2017 04:25
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Every single elevator death that is from someone doing something stupid? Which is like 100% of elevator deaths because they basically never fatally fail anymore and every death is someone crawling into gears or walking into an open shaft or something. That demonstrates why the elevator analogy doesn't work, since aviation will always have more risk involved and there will always be accidents. I'm not arguing against the fact that increased automation could make things safer overall. A large amount of accidents nowadays are a result of human error. However at the rare emergency edge cases like birds flying into an engine just after takeoff and having to do a water emergency landing in a river I think it will be a long time before machines can deal as well as a good trained human pilot. When those rare situations happen, if flying is automated then people will blame the lack of a human in the cockpit even if a lot of human pilots couldn't have saved the situation.
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Aug 21, 2017 04:37
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ElCondemn posted:He's arguing against a hypothetical silicon valley tech bro he created in his head, no need to point it out since he's got all his arguments pre-loaded. There's no hypothetical, you are the tech bro. Also sv is absolutely working on self driving cars, these are companies with little to no experience in the auto industry. Why do you think it will be different with trying to automate airline flight? GEMorris fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Aug 21, 2017 |
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Aug 21, 2017 04:46
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Senor Tron posted:That demonstrates why the elevator analogy doesn't work, since aviation will always have more risk involved and there will always be accidents. Your analogy is pretty silly, automation and computerization is a perfect place for unexpected engine loss. In fact most commercial airliners will automatically adjust in cases like these, these types of systems have been around for 40+ years. It doesn't matter if people blame the pilot or the computer, the stats show that humans are bad in unexpected situations and computers and technology will be able to do a better job in the vast majority of cases. The reason elevators no longer require a driver is because their track record of being reliable is pretty loving good, if they were killing people left and right no elevator would be without a pilot. The same is true of cars and planes, when the technology gets to the point where it's safe and reliable it will be automated and people will just trust it, cars, elevators, all kinds of technology we don't think twice about have gone through this process. GEMorris posted:There's no hypothetical, you are the tech bro. I don't live in California and I never said any of the poo poo you are saying I'm saying. I used to work for a company that did connected services for the big car manufacturers like Ford and GM, that's where I'm coming from. I can assure you I know all about regulations and what it takes to get new tech into vehicles, I can only imagine what it's like for planes. Pick someone else to be the fantasy target for your poo poo posting, I never advocated for pilot-less planes. My only point was that there is no technical reason (including safety concerns) why it couldn't happen. But don't take my word for it, it's already being done you're just acting like technology isn't pervasive in the airline industry. Google and Uber are definitely working on self driving cars, but you obviously don't know poo poo about how and why it's happening. Look at the actual people working on these projects, they're not just some tech bros disrupting poo poo, they're people with decades in the industry. The people with the expertise are being hired by the googles and ubers of the world to make this stuff happen. It's also not just people in Silicon Valley, Detroit is all over this, every car manufacturer is in on it. Just read up on the trade shows and you'll see where the industry is going. ElCondemn fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Aug 21, 2017 |
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Aug 21, 2017 06:11
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Senor Tron posted:That demonstrates why the elevator analogy doesn't work, since aviation will always have more risk involved and there will always be accidents. I'm basing this off the movie not any kind of FAA report, so take this with a giant grain of salt, but my understanding is that computer modeling showed that if *immediately* after the engine failure the pilots had either turned around or aimed for teterboro they'd have been fine, it was only the 30 - 40 seconds of indecision and confusion that necessitated the water landing.
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Aug 21, 2017 14:13
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GEMorris posted:The fact that these SV true believers can't accept this or acknowledge that the difficulty this poses makes the problem orders of magnitude more difficult to solve is the crazy part. Just gotta say "disrupt" and "innovate" enough and the magic will happen. GEMorris posted:The idea that some SV wunderkids are going to automate passenger flight travel in the next 10 years is loving laughable though. Please quote posts where people a) use the word 'disrupt' with regards to automating pilots b) same for 'innovate' c) claim that passenger flight travel will be automated in 10 years
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Aug 21, 2017 14:25
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Doctor Malaver posted:Please quote posts where people Doctor Malaver posted:What you might be getting wrong is that when IT people say that replacing pilots would be easy, they primarily think about the software aspect of the problem. Can AI do it in the immediate future or not? Apparently Yes - at least I haven't seen any good arguments against. It might not happen soon because of public reactions, union agreements, legislature, adapting planes, changes to flight control, etc... But it's just a matter for the industry to gauge whether it would be worth it in 10 years or 30. You certainly imply 10 years is possible, and only held back by "public reactions, union agreements, legislature, adapting planes, changes to flight control, etc..." This is the laughable part, that if only the regulations and other people were removed from the equation, a technical solution would be right around the corner.
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Aug 21, 2017 15:16
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Why is this thread about whether or not planes will be automated instead of how we're all going to be murdered by GE branded death bots?
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Aug 21, 2017 15:41
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Lightning Lord posted:Why is this thread about whether or not planes will be automated instead of how we're all going to be murdered by GE branded death bots? Because the former lets us argue about how far away a technical advancement is that won't dramatically affect our way of life, and the latter seems like an inevitability that we have no answer to.
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Aug 21, 2017 15:54
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Because autopilots exists and the robots haven't taken over McDonald's. Yet. It's less hypothetical, weird as it is. Honestly, what can we say more about the politics of future automation? If it displaces to many people, charismatic Bernie types will get elected or we'll see civil unrest to the level of the French Revolution in the end. Unhappy societies reform or explode, and we can't even tell were we'll be in a decade let alone what our children will face. The USA have had Obama for 8 years, spray tan Caligula hasn't hosed things up for more than 8 months and people are already getting too sick of it. Such a country won't allow social upheaval like we're talking here.
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Aug 21, 2017 16:21
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Lightning Lord posted:Why is this thread about whether or not planes will be automated instead of how we're all going to be murdered by GE branded death bots? Not worried about death bots because ol' Musky is going to ban them: http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/21/technology/elon-musk-killer-robot-un-ban/index.html
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Aug 21, 2017 16:39
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GEMorris posted:You certainly imply 10 years is possible, and only held back by "public reactions, union agreements, legislature, adapting planes, changes to flight control, etc..." That is on the lower end of my estimate but yeah, it should be possible. Note that I'm not saying it's possible that all pilots will be replaced by 2027 (or ever)... but it's possible that we will see a commercial pilotless flight by then. Not a 747 on a transatlantic flight packed with passengers, but maybe a cargo flight between two close airports in the off-season... Yep.
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Aug 21, 2017 17:24
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Logistics and home delivery aren't sexy like piloting but I've been thinking about what automation will cause there. As it gets cheaper and simpler to buy stuff online, and as generations that are uncomfortable and unused to it start to slowly die out... What happens with plain old stores? It's not just a matter of lost jobs but potentially a change of what means living in a town. People shop less in stores, stores close, people have even less incentive to go out shopping, more stores close, etc. You'll still have bars, restaurants and other services but are there enough such businesses to fill all the empty storefronts? What will town centers look like?I'm asking that as an European, I guess in the US they often don't look like much. :/ I'm ranting without much data. I read about malls closing in US in 2016 and some retailers reducing the number of stores... But I also read today that "The national unemployment rate now stands at a 4.3%, a 16-year low. But month after month, it is the low-wage sectors – fast food, retail, healthcare – that have added new jobs." which seems to suggest an opposite trend (retail adding jobs). Thoughts welcome!
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Aug 21, 2017 23:23
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Doctor Malaver posted:Logistics and home delivery aren't sexy like piloting but I've been thinking about what automation will cause there. Malls and traditional retail outlets are closing all the time, the growth in the retail industry is for online services like amazon, warby parker, and other online retailers. But also keep in mind retail includes everything from groceries to prescription drugs, it's not just t-shirt stores. So while we're seeing Gap's close down we're seeing a lot more online retailers and lots of growth in service jobs like fast food and health care. But a lot of this stuff is pretty closely tied to population growth rates.
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Aug 21, 2017 23:31
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Doctor Malaver posted:Logistics and home delivery aren't sexy like piloting but I've been thinking about what automation will cause there. It's my understanding that much of that retail growth are in what is known as "experience" type retail (think Build a Bear vs Toys r Us or Soul Cycle vs a gym). But even as I type that knowing I've heard it several times throughout business media, it still feels like bullshit, doesn't it? I mean, sure, higher end stores are going to be ok but long term wage stagnation is killing everyone else and it seems like only a matter of time. Feels like a small market to me that's going to crash out the first time there's a real adjustment, but I'm just speculating here. As far as home delivery is concerned, how do you get past the issue of simple vandalism? I've seen ads for prototypes of robots that are essentially rolling safes but it seems like a trivial exercise to put a garbage bag over it, or hit it with a stun gun, steal it and raid it for the contents or enjoy the sheer vandalism aspect of the exercise. Drones are a little more protected given that it's harder to bring one down (though you'll need a whole different type of system to navigate then through dense areas) but I think still suffer from similar issues. And maybe an Amazon can take on that sort of risk, but a smaller firm can't. And once you have a significant number of customers talk about how they didn't get their delivery, the reputation maybe prevent further development. Also, I really feel uncomfortable with some small time SV firm playing "seek forgiveness rather than permission" with flying a whole bunch of autonomous drones.
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Aug 21, 2017 23:41
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It will be a brave new world of retail empires and the drone pirates that live from plundering them.
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Aug 21, 2017 23:44
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Guavanaut posted:It will be a brave new world of retail empires and the drone pirates that live from plundering them. ... are you thinking what I'm thinking? https://www.google.se/search?q=crimson+skies&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&ei=XWObWdHnCoir8weO-LL4Ag
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Aug 21, 2017 23:49
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Something like that, but with more remote controls. Or skeet shotguns, depending on how high the delivery drones fly.
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Aug 21, 2017 23:58
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Solkanar512 posted:As far as home delivery is concerned, how do you get past the issue of simple vandalism? Society in general works pretty well without much trouble because of social contracts. As it stands today mailboxes and packages are left out in the open for anyone to steal/vandalize but in general incidents of package theft/vandalism are pretty small. Credit cards are a great example of this, there is absolutely nothing stopping anyone in the world from charging your credit card. The only real countermeasures are all post-incident, there isn't a fraud guard that works preemptively because the system itself is predicated on the idea that the vast majority of uses will be valid and a certain small percentage is just going to be lost to theft. So basically the fear that robo-butlers are going to get knocked off cliffs every day is pretty unlikely. People in general are pretty law abiding. I would only worry about it if/when it becomes a real problem.
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Aug 22, 2017 00:00
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ElCondemn posted:Malls and traditional retail outlets are closing all the time, the growth in the retail industry is for online services like amazon, warby parker, and other online retailers. But also keep in mind retail includes everything from groceries to prescription drugs, it's not just t-shirt stores. So while we're seeing Gap's close down we're seeing a lot more online retailers and lots of growth in service jobs like fast food and health care. But a lot of this stuff is pretty closely tied to population growth rates. Is there data for brick-n-mortar retailers specifically? Solkanar512 posted:As far as home delivery is concerned, how do you get past the issue of simple vandalism? I've seen ads for prototypes of robots that are essentially rolling safes but it seems like a trivial exercise to put a garbage bag over it, or hit it with a stun gun, steal it and raid it for the contents or enjoy the sheer vandalism aspect of the exercise. Drones are a little more protected given that it's harder to bring one down (though you'll need a whole different type of system to navigate then through dense areas) but I think still suffer from similar issues. Yeah I don't understand what they need them for. If we are going to have self-driving cars you could have a robot-driven delivery vehicle pull up your driveway and send you a notification through the app. You get out and take your package. The vehicle goes to the next customer. Sounds cheaper than having a small vehicle (driving or flying) that would only take care of one customer at a time.
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Aug 22, 2017 00:03
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At least the delivery guys can take solace in that you still need to do some actual physical engineering to figure out how to get packages of varying size and weight out of the truck in a reliable manner.
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Aug 22, 2017 00:14
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ElCondemn posted:Society in general works pretty well without much trouble because of social contracts. As it stands today mailboxes and packages are left out in the open for anyone to steal/vandalize but in general incidents of package theft/vandalism are pretty small. That's only the case if it's advantageous to be law abiding. That's the other aspect of automation, what happens to the middle and lower class when they don't have any income anymore. The social contract will be paper thin without action taken to give people stability.
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Aug 22, 2017 00:21
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Doctor Malaver posted:Is there data for brick-n-mortar retailers specifically? The US census bureau does a retail sales report every year, https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html It looks like brick and mortar is still dominant for most americans, so don't go hoarding cans of mushroom soup just yet. The reason people are worried/talking about online vs B&M is because the rate of growth for online retailers is so much higher than brick and mortar right now, if the trends continue we should see online retailing take over in our lifetimes for sure. Doctor Malaver posted:Yeah I don't understand what they need them for. If we are going to have self-driving cars you could have a robot-driven delivery vehicle pull up your driveway and send you a notification through the app. You get out and take your package. The vehicle goes to the next customer. Sounds cheaper than having a small vehicle (driving or flying) that would only take care of one customer at a time. I think the idea is that people aren't home during the delivery window, if all packages could be delivered between 5-10pm or whatever then it might work how you're suggesting. Though I suspect having people come out and pick up their package from the mail-car would be slower than today's ring and ditch style delivery methods. Which would mean the schedule that conflicts with most peoples work hours would still be preferred for optimal delivery time.
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Aug 22, 2017 00:23
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Maluco Marinero posted:That's only the case if it's advantageous to be law abiding. That's the other aspect of automation, what happens to the middle and lower class when they don't have any income anymore. The social contract will be paper thin without action taken to give people stability. That's why we need to start talking seriously about ideas like mincome, reduced work week, and other post-scarcity ideas.
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Aug 22, 2017 00:24
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Stairmaster posted:At least the delivery guys can take solace in that you still need to do some actual physical engineering to figure out how to get packages of varying size and weight out of the truck in a reliable manner. Or just standardize boxes to multiples of one size
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Aug 22, 2017 00:25
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Oh poo poo guys if the power goes out the plane will stop flapping it's wings and we're hosed!
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Aug 22, 2017 00:30
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Nevvy Z posted:Oh poo poo guys if the power goes out the plane will stop flapping it's wings and we're hosed! That's what the RAT is for. ElCondemn posted:Society in general works pretty well without much trouble because of social contracts. As it stands today mailboxes and packages are left out in the open for anyone to steal/vandalize but in general incidents of package theft/vandalism are pretty small. Yet with credit cards, there's an existing contract between both the bank and the person allowed to charge the card, and between the bank and the person using the card to buy goods. Tons of records are kept and mistakes/fraud can be reversed rather easily. It's no big deal for a large bank If you're talking about some robot that just wanders around delivering things (this is the thing I have in mind, if you have something else in mind I'm happy to hear it), the situation is different because just about anyone could come upon it and do whatever they want to it. They could easily steal it, disable it, vandalize it, gently caress with it, whatever. I can hear OOCC responding, "but this could happen to live delivery people and it doesn't all that often" and to that I'd say that people are much more willing to screw with things if there's no one else around that might see or identify them. People also fight back, cause trouble or otherwise get in the way and so on. Most burglaries happen when people are away for this very reason. I mean look at that thing, it's hardly what I'd call secure.
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Aug 22, 2017 01:11
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Solkanar512 posted:Yet with credit cards, there's an existing contract between both the bank and the person allowed to charge the card, and between the bank and the person using the card to buy goods. Tons of records are kept and mistakes/fraud can be reversed rather easily. It's no big deal for a large bank Credit card transactions can be turned into cash almost instantly these days. There really is no way to reverse theft like this since the attackers generally do things like purchase goods that are as good as cash in hand. It's literally just accepted that there will be losses, that's how the system works. Solkanar512 posted:If you're talking about some robot that just wanders around delivering things (this is the thing I have in mind, if you have something else in mind I'm happy to hear it), the situation is different because just about anyone could come upon it and do whatever they want to it. They could easily steal it, disable it, vandalize it, gently caress with it, whatever. These devices have sensors out the rear end, you think people are going to gently caress with it because they don't think they can be identified? Solkanar512 posted:I can hear OOCC responding, "but this could happen to live delivery people and it doesn't all that often" and to that I'd say that people are much more willing to screw with things if there's no one else around that might see or identify them. People also fight back, cause trouble or otherwise get in the way and so on. Most burglaries happen when people are away for this very reason. It can and does happen to live delivery people all the time, they're trained to just give up whatever they're delivering and leave. But also we already have wheeled containers that transport valuables roaming the streets, they're called cars, I would expect theft and vandalism to mirror the rate of car break-ins since the risk/reward calculation seems about on par. It's just such a weird position to take, to think that everyone is law-abiding with all the technology advancements of the past, but in the future people will just turn into mindless marauders raping and pillaging anything that moves autonomously.
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Aug 22, 2017 01:27
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Solkanar512 posted:
People don't mess up stop lights or vending machines or outdoor cable junction boxes or any of the other exposed devices or infrastructure that some agent of chaos could just walk around breaking.
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Aug 22, 2017 01:28
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:People don't mess up stop lights or vending machines or outdoor cable junction boxes or any of the other exposed devices or infrastructure that some agent of chaos could just walk around breaking. Don't you remember the great vending machine wars? It was an arms race, vile snack food junkies toppling machines left and right, vending machine manufacturers creating decoy machines with explosives inside, it was unbelievable! It's a good thing they figured out how to make vending machines uncrackable, it was getting pretty dangerous for a while!
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Aug 22, 2017 01:33
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Ye glass windows shall never function to provide illumination for ones domicile when any vagabond can breaketh them so readily
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Aug 22, 2017 01:37
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ElCondemn posted:
Is it though? Exhibit A & B Maluco Marinero posted:That's only the case if it's advantageous to be law abiding. That's the other aspect of automation, what happens to the middle and lower class when they don't have any income anymore. The social contract will be paper thin without action taken to give people stability. ElCondemn posted:That's why we need to start talking seriously about ideas like mincome, reduced work week, and other post-scarcity ideas. I agree with this, but have a hard time imagining how we get from where we are now, to an automated future, without taking a detour through genocidesville
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Aug 22, 2017 01:42
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ElCondemn posted:Credit card transactions can be turned into cash almost instantly these days. There really is no way to reverse theft like this since the attackers generally do things like purchase goods that are as good as cash in hand. It's literally just accepted that there will be losses, that's how the system works. I get this - it's accepted because it's a small part of their overall business. But when you're talking about "number of automated robot deliveries hosed with"/"overall attempted robot deliveries", the latter is going to be much, much higher. Furthermore, when you're a customer waiting for a delivery that's arriving by bot, it either gets there or it doesn't. quote:These devices have sensors out the rear end, you think people are going to gently caress with it because they don't think they can be identified? I know that these thing will have sensors out the rear end, but so do things like iPhones and those get stolen all the time. I honestly believe that folks will try until it's widely believed that they will be caught and punished for it. Are police going to want to deal with the trouble, given that many aren't interested in dealing with stolen iPhones (Seattle PD is known for this)? What sort of sensor systems are you thinking about that will actively prevent vandalism, for instance? What's to prevent a group of teens from picking that thing up and throwing it down a ravine, into a dumpster or just turning it on its back? How many times does one of these things have to be damaged or simply prevented from delivering its cargo before it's simply costs too much to be practical? quote:It can and does happen to live delivery people all the time, they're trained to just give up whatever they're delivering and leave. But also we already have wheeled containers that transport valuables roaming the streets, they're called cars, I would expect theft and vandalism to mirror the rate of car break-ins since the risk/reward calculation seems about on par. Cars get broken into all the time, smash and grab is very, very common. And if you're talking about delivery trucks, we've already gone over the fact that having someone there is a deterrent. quote:It's just such a weird position to take, to think that everyone is law-abiding with all the technology advancements of the past, but in the future people will just turn into mindless marauders raping and pillaging anything that moves autonomously. Not everything, but I can certainly see organized groups doing this (like folks who steal mail), unorganized groups of kids looking for something to do or folks who want to "rage against tech bros" or whatever.
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Aug 22, 2017 01:49
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GEMorris posted:Is it though? Exhibit A & B We're talking about a hypothetical future where automation has made a class of people who have no options except to mad max the delivery drones... it's a sci-fi movie concept, not an "exhibit". GEMorris posted:I agree with this, but have a hard time imagining how we get from where we are now, to an automated future, without taking a detour through genocidesville Well, when you've decided genocide is inevitable every path to the future is going to heavily feature that idea.
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Aug 22, 2017 01:52
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Solkanar512 posted:I get this - it's accepted because it's a small part of their overall business. But when you're talking about "number of automated robot deliveries hosed with"/"overall attempted robot deliveries", the latter is going to be much, much higher. Furthermore, when you're a customer waiting for a delivery that's arriving by bot, it either gets there or it doesn't. Why aren't unattended packages seeing this massive problem already? It's easier today to steal packages than it is to abduct or break into a delivery drone. Solkanar512 posted:I know that these thing will have sensors out the rear end, but so do things like iPhones and those get stolen all the time. I honestly believe that folks will try until it's widely believed that they will be caught and punished for it. Are police going to want to deal with the trouble, given that many aren't interested in dealing with stolen iPhones (Seattle PD is known for this)? What sort of sensor systems are you thinking about that will actively prevent vandalism, for instance? What's to prevent a group of teens from picking that thing up and throwing it down a ravine, into a dumpster or just turning it on its back? How many times does one of these things have to be damaged or simply prevented from delivering its cargo before it's simply costs too much to be practical? I expect the same amount of vandalism as cars experience, why aren't roving bands of teens throwing cars down ravines today? The big difference between an iPhone and a delivery drone is that he drone has cameras recording and potentially transmitting its surroundings 24x7. An iPhone theif just needs to turn off the device to be safe, even if it is on they aren't being recorded by default. Solkanar512 posted:Cars get broken into all the time, smash and grab is very, very common. And if you're talking about delivery trucks, we've already gone over the fact that having someone there is a deterrent. So you're implying that because cars are being broken into people aren't buying or using cars anymore? The theft/vandalism issue is such a small issue that people still use and own cars, in fact the problem is so small that people still regularly keep valuables in their cars every day. Why do you assume the problem will be worse for driving cameras that are connected to the internet? Solkanar512 posted:Not everything, but I can certainly see organized groups doing this (like folks who steal mail), unorganized groups of kids looking for something to do or folks who want to "rage against tech bros" or whatever. We already have thee problems, there's no reason to think it'll suddenly become worse for this specific technology.
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Aug 22, 2017 02:10
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All I can say right now is this: if you're not designing your automated delivery vehicle to work in those parts of the US where the counters at gas stations, convenience stores, and fast restaurants are behind walls of bulletproof glass, then you're not really a serious company looking to change the automation game.
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Aug 22, 2017 02:19
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Kthulhu5000 posted:All I can say right now is this: if you're not designing your automated delivery vehicle to work in those parts of the US where the counters at gas stations, convenience stores, and fast restaurants are behind walls of bulletproof glass, then you're not really a serious company looking to change the automation game. "I'm here to deliver your package" 
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Aug 22, 2017 02:25
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ElCondemn posted:We're talking about a hypothetical future where automation has made a class of people who have no options except to mad max the delivery drones... it's a sci-fi movie concept, not an "exhibit". The "exhibit" was your own words about the necessity of universal basic income or other post-scarcity solutions. Why would you think that was necessary if you weren't afraid of the alternatives?
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Aug 22, 2017 02:31
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ElCondemn posted:Well, when you've decided genocide is inevitable every path to the future is going to heavily feature that idea. And so we come to the Ultimate Final Battle of the age old war between the Patricians and the Plebians: Either the Plebians seize the promise of luxury, comfort and security forever, or the Patricians, finally free of the yoke of needing the Plebians' labor to keep their gravy train running, finally rid the world of the annoying unwashed eyesores once and for all.
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Aug 22, 2017 02:50
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ElCondemn posted:"I'm here to deliver your package" ...Know what, I'm in.
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Aug 22, 2017 02:55
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