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Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Tiptoes posted:

Should've dropped your handcuff instead of Burkhead.

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sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Eh, Burkhead might be the guy to own in NE, or Gillislee, or White, or hell maybe Dion Lewis if he can stay healthy.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
I'd rather have the "maybe guy to own" in NE then a handcuff on a middling to bad team. That roster spot can be put to good use elsewhere.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
CJ Prosise, Rex Burkhead, and Samaje Perine are on the waiver wire in my 2QB league. Should I make any moves?

0.5 PPR, 2QB/2RB/3WR/1FLX/1TE/1DST

QB: Rodgers, Luck, Goff
RB: Gordon, Abdullah, Ware (RIP), Elliott
WR: Jeffery, Diggs, Garcon, Meredith, Marvin Jones, Ginn, Golladay, Hogan
TE: Rudolph

Should I drop Goff for Cutler? Goff's first opponent is Indianapolis, so I figure he's at least flex worthy if Luck isn't playing. He played like dogshit today but that was without Gurley to make a viable run threat.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 04:09 on Aug 27, 2017

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Really not sold on Rex. The only thing he does better than any other back on the roster is special-teams play (he led CIN in ST tackles last year). He's not even the best all-rounder (that's Lewis). If the NE backs are all game-plan specific, I really have to squint to see a plan that requires a lot of Rex and very little of the other three. Like, sure, maybe there will be an injury in front of him, but there could be an injury in front of plenty of other guys in the league that wouldn't still be left in a three-headed timeshare afterwards. Wouldn't I prefer one of those?

Even in dynasty, Rex is only on a 1-year contract. Who knows what his situation will be next year.

I dunno, maybe I'm missing something. Everybody is gaga over this guy and I just don't get it.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
That's not a good reason to abandon the best shares of what will be a productive backfield. Burkhead is the best "do everything"-type back they have and he's also performed best in camp through this point. You hang onto him until you see their real gameplans.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Forever_Peace posted:

Really not sold on Rex. The only thing he does better than any other back on the roster is special-teams play (he led CIN in ST tackles last year). He's not even the best all-rounder (that's Lewis). If the NE backs are all game-plan specific, I really have to squint to see a plan that requires a lot of Rex and very little of the other three. Like, sure, maybe there will be an injury in front of him, but there could be an injury in front of plenty of other guys in the league that wouldn't still be left in a three-headed timeshare afterwards. Wouldn't I prefer one of those?

Even in dynasty, Rex is only on a 1-year contract. Who knows what his situation will be next year.

I dunno, maybe I'm missing something. Everybody is gaga over this guy and I just don't get it.

Everyone wants a taste of New England's offense.

VietCampo
Aug 24, 2010

Forever_Peace posted:

Really not sold on Rex. The only thing he does better than any other back on the roster is special-teams play (he led CIN in ST tackles last year). He's not even the best all-rounder (that's Lewis). If the NE backs are all game-plan specific, I really have to squint to see a plan that requires a lot of Rex and very little of the other three. Like, sure, maybe there will be an injury in front of him, but there could be an injury in front of plenty of other guys in the league that wouldn't still be left in a three-headed timeshare afterwards. Wouldn't I prefer one of those?

Even in dynasty, Rex is only on a 1-year contract. Who knows what his situation will be next year.

I dunno, maybe I'm missing something. Everybody is gaga over this guy and I just don't get it.

I think it may be due to him looking good and receiving lots of work when Gillislee was injured and people thinking hey that means he's gonna defo get the lions share.

I think he'll do good, but lots of guys here are way too high on him imo. Way too crowded for me.

VietCampo fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Aug 27, 2017

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps
I dropped Rishard, you jerks

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

89 posted:

I dropped Rishard, you jerks

Glad we could help.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Tiptoes posted:

That's not a good reason to abandon the best shares of what will be a productive backfield. Burkhead is the best "do everything"-type back they have and he's also performed best in camp through this point. You hang onto him until you see their real gameplans.

He's not the best share, he's the fourth best share (Lewis is the better all-rounder and ahead in the pecking order). I want guys that I can see a path where I'd be starting him as one of the best 2-3 rbs on my fantasy team in any given week. What's that path for Rex? An injury to Gilly that leaves Rex as a touchdown vulture? A role salting away games trying to grind out time killing first downs? While that might leave him with decent season numbers, it's tough to predict.

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.

pubic works project posted:

So the Edelman owner also owns Brees and Brady. His RBs are Gore, Peterson, and JStew and his WRs after Edelman are JMatt, Cobb, and Davante Adams. He's obsessed with Blount too.

I was thinking of offering up Rivers/Blount/Moncrief/Smallwood for Brady/JStew/Broncos D/ST (I still need a defense).This is a 14 team 1PPR league. I'd still have DJ/TyMonty/Alshon/Parker/Tyreek/Hunt/Crowder.

I've had a couple of drinks. If he were crazy enough to accept, am I winning this trade?

So I just woke up and realized that I actually offered that trade. Should I cancel it?

pubic works project fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Aug 27, 2017

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Tiptoes posted:

That's not a good reason to abandon the best shares of what will be a productive backfield. Burkhead is the best "do everything"-type back they have and he's also performed best in camp through this point. You hang onto him until you see their real gameplans.

I don't think there's a lot of evidence for any of that. Gillislee is likely the best runner and goal line back, White and Lewis are probably better pass catchers. If Burkhead was unambiguously "the best shares," it wouldn't be a discussion. Everyone was (rightfully) super excited about Gillislee in the Blount role, and White has quietly been an excellent PPR back, and Lewis has flashed great three down potential but can't seem to stay healthy. I would not be shocked if any of them ended up leading the backfield in PPR.

CompeAnansi
Feb 1, 2011

I respectfully decline
the invitation to join
your hallucination
I need help picking my keepers (12 teams, 2RB, 2WR, FLX, 0.5PPR). I can pick three and the first two are easy:

LeVeon Bell @ $31
Jordy Nelson @ $15

But I'm having some difficulty picking the third. Originally I was set on Gillislee, but after his injury, I'm having second thoughts. They are all basically at (or $1-$2 below) what I'd project them at in a non-keeper league. So none of them are steals. I'm currently leaning Kelce since his production is the least replaceable in a keeper league. Which would you keep?

Drew Brees @ $20
Travis Kelce @ $23
Willie Snead @ $12
Mike Gillislee @ $6

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Forever_Peace posted:

He's not the best share, he's the fourth best share (Lewis is the better all-rounder and ahead in the pecking order). I want guys that I can see a path where I'd be starting him as one of the best 2-3 rbs on my fantasy team in any given week. What's that path for Rex? An injury to Gilly that leaves Rex as a touchdown vulture? A role salting away games trying to grind out time killing first downs? While that might leave him with decent season numbers, it's tough to predict.
Burkhead is their best multi-purpose back. Gillislee will have a valuable role as a clock-killer but still Burkhead offers more dimensions to the offense and will play the most snaps. The offense can basically run any playcall with him on the field. Lewis may offer more value as a receiver but not between the tackles. His health cannot be relied on as well and the Pats have been treating him as if his role is anything but safe. They have been forcing him to prove himself all camp and offseason. Still, you will see them rotate guys in and out, which is going to a problem some weeks. But I have no fear in targeting Burkhead at this point. I want him and Gillislee in redraft and I want Burkhead in every PPR league I play in. Lewis and White I'll use as a minimum cost DFS dart throws.

DeadMansSuspenders
Jan 10, 2012

I wanna be your left hand man

Hey folks, I'm in a 10 team, 1QB / 2RB / 2 WR/ 1 TE / 1W/R 0ppr standard scoring league. Issue is I started drinking pretty early (pre-draft even). This is my lineup.

QB J. Winston
RB D. Johnson, T. Montgomery, M. Ingram, A. Abdullah, M. Gilleslee, A. Peterson, D. Johnson, D. Woodhead
WR D. Bryant, T. Hilton, J. Brown,
TE Rudolph

I'm thinking that I should look for a different QB or new WR (as I'm clearly short there). Looking for any insight.
Before we drafted I thought about taking Jacquizz Rodgers but didn't end up doing that. He's still available though.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Winston is fine at QB. Don't worry about rolling him out there every week.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
Winston isn't set and forget fine because he could get limited to not throw a gently caress ton of interceptions again but in a ten-teamer that isn't something I'd worry about because I'm sure any two of guys like Stafford, Dalton, Wentz or other fill-in options are literally sitting there on the waiver wire.


Your WRs are in desperate need of help though and if the second D. Johnson is Duke Johnson just drop him for whoever is on the wire at WR.

Seriously those WRs are dire for a 10-teamer

DeadMansSuspenders
Jan 10, 2012

I wanna be your left hand man

Spoeank posted:

Your WRs are in desperate need of help though and if the second D. Johnson is Duke Johnson just drop him for whoever is on the wire at WR.

Yeah it is Duke. The suggested top waivers are (apparently) Tyrell Williams, Kenny Stills, Brandon LaFell, and Sterling Shepard. And two of those QBs are available so I'll look to them if needed.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
Go get Tyrell Williams immediately.

DeadMansSuspenders
Jan 10, 2012

I wanna be your left hand man

I'll put it in, thanks for the advice.

Sweeper
Nov 29, 2007
The Joe Buck of Posting
Dinosaur Gum
I got into a situation where people kept drafting rbs ahead of me and there wasn't anyone worth the pick, so now I have poo poo rbs and a bunch of wrs. My starting rbs are Crowell and Powell, starting WRs are jones, cooks, Tate.

Cmon Hue make Crowell shiiiine

I drafted ware in like the 10th in hopes of his injury only lasting half a year lol

Sweeper fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Aug 27, 2017

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
I had a weird draft that all the rate my team things love (99% playoff chance by every football guy on rate my team, top draft by yahoo etc), so I feel like this means my team is going to be bad. My WR are weak, and this is a shallow bench 12 team league so there are still decent players available. Should I drop Jordan Mathews or Marvin Jones for any of these people:
Duke Johnson (not an WR obviously, but it feels like someone should have drafted him)
John Brown
Rishard Matthews
Josh Doctson
Other people around this tier that I am not thinking of?

I only have 3 RB until Elliot is back, but assuming no one gets injured or Mixon is worth at least a flex I will not need one.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I like John Brown more than Matthews, and if it's PPR Johnson could be a huge value. I would drop my DST and kicker for both.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
So I'm currently in the process of re-inventing "Expected Points Added" from scratch for Ground Control (see here for concept).

Just got back the preliminary results.

- Guys who really helped their team on the ground last year on a per-play basis: Gillislee, Zeke, Freeman, Bell, Blount, McCoy, Ajayi, Bilal, Latavius Murray, Derrick Henry, Eddie Lacy, Kenneth Dixon, Ingram, Turbin.
- Every time James Starks took a handoff last year, the Packers lost the equivalent of a third of a point off their eventual score. For Gurley, each touch was a loss of about a fifth of a point.
- Elite Pass-catching backs still tend to be really effective on the ground (Woodhead, Sproles, White). Possible consequence of converting lots of third downs in this case?
- Fullbacks make a surprisingly good showing here. Will need to investigate further.
- Jamaal Charles is impossible (career EPA is good)

Hope to start writing it up soon. Should be exciting. Support vector machines! Neural networks! Random forest regression! Feature engineering! Grid search optimization! A dataset containing every single play in every game since 2009!

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I like John Brown more than Matthews, and if it's PPR Johnson could be a huge value. I would drop my DST and kicker for both.

It is PP1st. I was leaning Brown as well, my main concern is he will not be that consistent since most of the offense flows through the running game now, plus if Palmer gets hurt I don't trust Gabbert to get him the ball. Also, Chris Hogan is there as well, if he is worth getting with Edelman going down

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Get Hogan

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.

pubic works project posted:

So the Edelman owner also owns Brees and Brady. His RBs are Gore, Peterson, and JStew and his WRs after Edelman are JMatt, Cobb, and Davante Adams. He's obsessed with Blount too.

I was thinking of offering up Rivers/Blount/Moncrief/Smallwood for Brady/JStew/Broncos D/ST (I still need a defense).This is a 14 team 1PPR league. I'd still have DJ/TyMonty/Alshon/Parker/Tyreek/Hunt/Crowder.

I've had a couple of drinks. If he were crazy enough to accept, am I winning this trade?

So I just woke up and realized that I actually offered that trade. Should I cancel it?

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Mathews is a touchdown machine so dropping him was a mistake and lol at liking John "good for 2 games" Brown

E: do not cancel the trade op if the dude is dumb enough to accept that then let it be

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.
https://twitter.com/jasonlambkc/status/901831693430116352

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF




I really needed this announcement to be Wednesday :(

Hunt a 2nd-3rd round pick now?

CompeAnansi
Feb 1, 2011

I respectfully decline
the invitation to join
your hallucination

Bellmaker posted:

I really needed this announcement to be Wednesday :(

Hunt a 2nd-3rd round pick now?

I think it puts Hunt in the Cook, Fournette, McCaffery, Mixon range now, wherever that is in snake drafts. But I would probably still put him behind all four of them.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
I'm slowly coming around to the idea that this year's RB class might actually live up to the hype. I was so convinced a month ago that it was going to be a total bust.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Forever_Peace posted:

I'm slowly coming around to the idea that this year's RB class might actually live up to the hype. I was so convinced a month ago that it was going to be a total bust.

Maybe, but RB as a whole seems like a wasteland after round 3.

The Wild Man of YOLO
Apr 20, 2004

A little cross-country, gentlemen?

Okay, how's this? 12-team league, 4th pick, 1 PPR

QB: Tom Brady (5)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (3), Frank Gore (6), Kareem Hunt (7), Duke Johnson (9), Thomas Rawls (13), Rex Burkhead (15)
WR: Antonio Brown (1), Doug Baldwin (2), Larry Fitzgerald (4), Kenny Britt (8), Corey Davis (12), Cooper Kupp (16)
TE: Eric Ebron (10)
IDP: Zach Brown (11)
D/ST: LA Rams (14)
K: TBD

I'm feeling a little anxious about Ebron; never been a big fan of his but TEs kept getting picked right before I was ready to take them (Graham, Eifert, Bennett). I almost grabbed Hooper or Brate in the 16th and I'm still thinking about grabbing one off FA but I have to consider who to drop for a kicker as well. Kupp first on the chopping block? Is anyone else really expendable?



Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Forever_Peace posted:

I'm slowly coming around to the idea that this year's RB class might actually live up to the hype. I was so convinced a month ago that it was going to be a total bust.

I don't know why you thought this. I can't remember the last time I liked a running back class coming out this much. I just wish I'd gotten more shares in dynasty, but I also think this receiving class is being seriously underrated. poo poo, it's easily the best tight end class in recent memory and it's probably the strongest class since Luck.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Metapod posted:

Mathews is a touchdown machine so dropping him was a mistake and lol at liking John "good for 2 games" Brown

E: do not cancel the trade op if the dude is dumb enough to accept that then let it be

The Bills look like they really don't want to win, and I would much rather have Brown's upside than whatever dumpster fire Matthews will be dealing with.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Cam Meredith just went down clutching his knee, after getting it hit from the side :/

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

The Bills look like they really don't want to win, and I would much rather have Brown's upside than whatever dumpster fire Matthews will be dealing with.

Check your PMs!

Also, I think they mean Rishard, not Jordan.

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Kloaked00
Jun 21, 2005

I was sitting in my office on that drizzly afternoon listening to the monotonous staccato of rain on my desk and reading my name on the glass of my office door: regnaD kciN

So with Ware out, how much closer does Kelce move to Gronk's value?

And does this move Cooks up to the Thomas/Bryant tier?

Kloaked00 fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Aug 27, 2017

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