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What is going to be your favorite offseason storyline?
This poll is closed.
The Big3 Tourney 67 22.41%
Will Lakers draft Ball 40 13.38%
Where will the Pauls go 54 18.06%
Will LeBron jump ship to the Spurs or ?? 41 13.71%
Will every team in the league just pivot towards tanking 97 32.44%
Total: 210 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Yeah that seemed like an easy under.

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morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
Sixers seem crazy high but that's already been litigated here a bunch

Edit:

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

That's a whole dollar if you put $1k on the Warriors to make the playoffs.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Those are odds slightly worse than a savings account.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
I'd put a dollar on golden State not making the playoffs with those odds

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Metapod posted:

I'd put a dollar on golden State not making the playoffs with those odds

How many injuries would it take for that to happen?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Metapod posted:

I'd put a dollar on golden State not making the playoffs with those odds

You "only" get $100 off that

ChickenMedium
Sep 2, 2001
Forum Veteran And Professor Emeritus of Condiment Studies

Lockback posted:

You "only" get $100 off that

If you bet a dollar. If you bet $1000, it becomes more worth your while to stalk the Warriors starters with increasingly elaborate schemes to injure them.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



ChickenMedium posted:

If you bet a dollar. If you bet $1000, it becomes more worth your while to stalk the Warriors starters with increasingly elaborate schemes to injure them.

How do I get Zaza Pachulia's number

OzFactor
Apr 16, 2001
As a person who is going all in on the Timberwolves and is irrationally optimistic about them, 48 is a lot of wins. That's more games than they've won in 15 years.

milk milk lemonade
Jul 29, 2016
GSW under all drat day

Libertine
Jun 21, 2004

When I die, I hope they say I made the eSports industry a better place than I made millions of dollars.

Cool Buff Man posted:

The Celtics are either going to be missing their starting PG for a while or have an entirely new team and will probably struggle at the start, really don't see them winning 56-57 games this year. The year after sure

I can't see any reason why they would struggle with the players they've added. Have I become a Boston homer or something? I'm not entirely sure what's wrong with me. 60 Ws easy.

Ammanas
Jul 17, 2005

Voltes V: "Laser swooooooooord!"
Because it takes time for even very good players to play well together. See the first year of the Heat Superteam

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

Libertine posted:

I can't see any reason why they would struggle with the players they've added. Have I become a Boston homer or something? I'm not entirely sure what's wrong with me. 60 Ws easy.

If the trade goes through, they will have four players from last season coming back and only one of them a starter.

Jack's Flow
Jun 6, 2003

Life, friends, is boring
Winning 60 games is never "easy" in the NBA, especially for a team adding new players.

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.

AggressivelyStupid posted:

LeBron James: Player, Coach, GM, Owner, Agent, Actor, Investor.

Truly a Renaissance Man.

LeBron saved Trainwreck from being a horrible, piece of poo poo movie to just a piece of poo poo movie.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Golden State won fewer games after adding Durant because roster continuity matters.

OzFactor posted:

As a person who is going all in on the Timberwolves and is irrationally optimistic about them, 48 is a lot of wins. That's more games than they've won in 15 years.

If you add up all their wins in fifteen years it's gotta be more than 48, right?

I'd take the under, but it's close. Jimmy Butler dragged a terrible roster to .500 last year, sniffing 50 is certainly reasonable, even if it is a bit optimistic.

Libertine
Jun 21, 2004

When I die, I hope they say I made the eSports industry a better place than I made millions of dollars.
In the East, the Hawks, Pacers, and Bulls all imploded and only the Sixers made any kind of substantial improvements to their roster.

The Celtics won 53 games last year, added a lottery pick and two superstar players. I think they they will easily clear 56. They will clear that difference just from Bulls/Hawks probably (who they lost a combined 4 games to last year).

Icy Penguigo
Nov 7, 2010

Libertine posted:

I can't see any reason why they would struggle with the players they've added. Have I become a Boston homer or something? I'm not entirely sure what's wrong with me. 60 Ws easy.

On top of roster continuity issues, assuming the trade goes through, they will have lost probably their 2 best defenders, or at least 2 very very good defensive players. And even if they get Kyrie he will not replace ITs production and efficiency. Hayward is an upgrade overall but also Horford is a year older and has always veen injury prone.

It's not impossible that they'll be worse as a team on both ends of the court. I think the under on that one is a no brainer, personally.

Under on 53 for the Cavs seems pretty easy, too. They only won 51 last year, they're older, and if the trade goes through they'll be without a quality starting PG for a while.

BWV
Feb 24, 2005


As pessimistic as I am about everything I think the Raps will go over. They lost Demarre Carroll, are still deep, and kept a strong regular season team together. Combined that with the east getting worse and having the conference's top two teams going through a bit of growing pains will lead to more wins. They'll win 50/51 games and lose in the first round.

Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations
Mavs are going over, easy money.

OzFactor
Apr 16, 2001

Lockback posted:

I'd take the under, but it's close. Jimmy Butler dragged a terrible roster to .500 last year, sniffing 50 is certainly reasonable, even if it is a bit optimistic.

Sure but he did it in the East. Not only is it the better side in general, I feel like every team in the West got better outside LAC, MEM, and UTA (and GSW but you know). I feel like 50 wins is everything going right: Towns continuing to improve, Wiggins taking the next step, Butler going off, the defense coming together, and the bench not blowing it every night. I'd consider it a great season for 3 out of the 5 of those. And I feel like #2 and 3 might conflict a bit, at least early on.

edit: I'm more than happy to be surprised though!

Tae
Oct 24, 2010

Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!
Wiggins can still take the next step without scoring a bunch. His defense can be better, and he can hopefully continue on progressing his spot-up 3's.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Minnesota the team that people expect 50 but yet to deliver 40

Bashez
Jul 19, 2004

:10bux:

Lockback posted:

I'd take the under, but it's close. Jimmy Butler dragged a terrible roster to .500 last year, sniffing 50 is certainly reasonable, even if it is a bit optimistic.

Butler should put them in the 48 win range, I think that's totally reasonable.

The 54 line for the Spurs seems reasonable to me, there's a lot of volatility there though.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

OzFactor posted:

Sure but he did it in the East. Not only is it the better side in general, I feel like every team in the West got better outside LAC, MEM, and UTA (and GSW but you know). I feel like 50 wins is everything going right: Towns continuing to improve, Wiggins taking the next step, Butler going off, the defense coming together, and the bench not blowing it every night. I'd consider it a great season for 3 out of the 5 of those. And I feel like #2 and 3 might conflict a bit, at least early on.

edit: I'm more than happy to be surprised though!

People overestimate conference strength of schedule, this isn't the MLB or NFL. Bulls still played 30 have against the West and were 13/30, which isn't very far of pace from their .500 record. If you have that team 50 West and 30 East they are like a 39 win team. Conference strength really comes into play in the playoffs (that Bulls team wasn't taking Golden State to 7).



Bashez posted:

Butler should put them in the 48 win range, I think that's totally reasonable.

The 54 line for the Spurs seems reasonable to me, there's a lot of volatility there though.

I like the over here. They won 61 last year and I feel like that team had some shakiness out of the gate. Probably in the 56-59 range.

Tae
Oct 24, 2010

Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!
The main issue for the regular season Spurs is that they lost a lot of depth. Parker's out for months, their Bigs depth is barren compared to last year, and their wings are kinda shaky as far as shooters or creators.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

Libertine posted:

In the East, the Hawks, Pacers, and Bulls all imploded and only the Sixers made any kind of substantial improvements to their roster.

The Celtics won 53 games last year, added a lottery pick and two superstar players. I think they they will easily clear 56. They will clear that difference just from Bulls/Hawks probably (who they lost a combined 4 games to last year).

The Celtics also lost a superstar, three other starters, and most of their bench.

Away all Goats
Jul 5, 2005

Goose's rebellion

I still don't understand Spurs giving Pau a 3 year deal.

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010

Ghost Dog posted:

the world, and the sports world in particular, would be so much better if every famous boston talking head was replaced with cool buff man

I dunno, I watched that SB Nation vid on lobster boat races and determined that Mainers should never speak

PupsOfWar
Dec 6, 2013

Away all Goats posted:

I still don't understand Spurs giving Pau a 3 year deal.

timmy played well until he was 65 years old, so they assume everybody can

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Atl 25.5 -- If they go over, I'll clap loudly. This is the least talented team in the NBA. They have a handful of solid role players and some crap. If the role players gel as a unit, 27 is possible, otherwise 22-25 is likely

Bos 56.5 -- Under, continuity, no actual bigs besides Horford and Aron Baynes, relying on Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown sounds fine but it means a lot less 3p shooting than they've had recently and a bit less rebounding. They finally have a guy to defend Lebron, Marcus Morris, eye test approved, advanced stats proven best Lebron defender, so they could finally win one playoff game against the Cavs.

Brk 28.5 -- This is a trap number, they want your savvy NBA fan confidence to lure you into an over. They were insanely dependent on Jeremy Lin Brook Lopez PNR last year, they'll have to find a new recipe. I believe in the Slavic antiprocess and I still must say under

Cha 42.5 -- This is dificil, I would say hard over if MKG was hurt again, he really fucks up the flow of their offense. But Batum won't be hurt. so they should be an over barring anything catastrophic

Chi 21.5 -- This seems depressed because of Bulls fan depression. It's really hard to lose this many games. Over

Cle 53.5 - Lebron gets to this number with Kevin Love and shooters, even if the pg has a bad hip, over

Dal 35.5 -- I like their future but their present is very uninspiring. Rookie PGs are never good. If Dennis Smith ends the season with a positive +/- it will prove Dirk and Rick Carlisle are the PG steroids. Staying away

Den 45.5 - I like Denver but this is running with the devil, I would stay away. We can visualize them beating the 3-15 teams in the West, but their defense is still going to be bad. I think 42.5 is a safer number

Det 38.5-- This is 1.5 more wins than last year with the Reggie Jackson mess. Now they have neither KCP nor Morris. A healthy Jackson probably gets them to 40. Betting on that is sinful

GS 67.5 -- They get a boost from continuity, but I think they'll rest enough to be under
Hou 55.5 -- Fair (Houston Rockets Championship)

Ind 31.5-- I think they'll probably win 32 games, But I don't think that count as an over, they have some NBA players and some "hey gently caress you we're not that bad" and are rudderless as an organization, so they won't tank properly. I've seen teams with similar rosters win 32-35 games plenty. I think I'd put a little money on this. They have a lot of veterans and shooting, Myles Turner is going to improve, I can see it, I have confidence.



LAC 43.5- OVER my god

LAL 33.5 - Under, They acquired a solid all around wing and Brook Lopez, Ingram is growing into a very good scorer, Luke Walton should make their offense juice around, but their defense is going to be rough, real real real rough

Mem 37.5 - There's no reason for them to not be .500 unless Mike Conley is injured or something. They've clawed to .500 with Lance Stephenson starting at pg
Mia 43.5 - fine with me, maybe under if you want to bet on their shooting regressing a bit, but they looked like what a Goran Dragic team should look like, and they will probably continue.
Mil 47.5 - Why so many wins? That's ridiculous, under
Min 48.5 -- No thanks, under

NO 39.5 -- I'd like this to be true, I'd like to say over, but I really cannot say
NY 30.5 -- Who plays for this team? Mystery man win bonus, over
OKC 51.5-- Sure

Orl 33.5-- They seem like they're beginning a re-rebuild, I've never seen a John Hammond team tank hard, but who can say, I would steer clear
Phi 42.5 -- This is a bet on Joel Embiid being healthy and Ben Simmons not gunking things up, no thanks, I'll stay home
Phx 28.5 This is fair, Healthy Bledsoe, Booker, Joshua Jackson, TJ Warren, Chandler, they should be a pretty fun high scoring team some nights, I can see it breaking well and them hitting 34 wins or something, but it's really a 90% offense team with a ton of young players and not much rebounding, that's a recipe for landing around 26-29

Por 42.5- Will Nurkic be back, if so, fair number, if not, under

Sac 28.5 - OVER baby, SACTOWN is BACK

SA 54.5 - 55 is very reasonable. I wonder what Rudy Gay will do
Tor 48.5 - Over, they're still the same 50 win team. Kyle Lowry is really good and they have lots of NBA players
Utah 40.5-- Over, gently caress Gordon Hayward defense wins champiships baby

Was 47.5- Under, too much chance of injury

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 05:07 on Aug 30, 2017

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Dejan Bimble posted:

SA 54.5 - 55 is very reasonable. I wonder what Rudy Gay will do

https://twitter.com/RudyGay/status/902710651017191424

Big things

Icy Penguigo
Nov 7, 2010

Dejan Bimble posted:

Cle 53.5 - Lebron gets to this number with Kevin Love and shooters, even if the pg has a bad hip, over

My big problem with this is that they only won 51 games last year, even though Kyrie was healthy. JR Smith missed a bunch of games and Love missed like 20 games, but I don't think that's as big a deal as missing Kyrie levels of production for half the season. If they go over it will be due to Crowder's defensive presence/existence on the bench being a huge deal. Not impossible, but I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable making the bet.

Tae
Oct 24, 2010

Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!
Why would the Cavs even try to win games beyond getting into the playoffs. They pretty much proved that home court doesn't matter in the east, and there's no way they're beating any of the western contenders in win total even at their best.

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

Even at Rudy's peak he wasn't a top 10 SF. And I like Rudy Gay

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Icy Penguigo posted:

My big problem with this is that they only won 51 games last year, even though Kyrie was healthy. JR Smith missed a bunch of games and Love missed like 20 games, but I don't think that's as big a deal as missing Kyrie levels of production for half the season. If they go over it will be due to Crowder's defensive presence/existence on the bench being a huge deal. Not impossible, but I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable making the bet.

That's a very reasonable opinion. They coasted so much last year, this year they have a backup for Lebron so he can play fewer minutes. Kevin Love will blossom with more touches, if IT isn't cooked for good, he'll be a good player for half of the season. They just have so much shooting that it's hard to do anything with them if they're trying.

Tae: There's a solid chance they coast again. That's true, my assumption was that Lebron would try to tie a bow on his Cleveland return and give the fans a bunch of good games, before leaving this summer. He seems to care about these things.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

WhyteRyce posted:

Even at Rudy's peak he wasn't a top 10 SF. And I like Rudy Gay

And yet he's on the 2k18 Kings all franchise team because this franchise, much like Nik, rocks

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


Dejan Bimble posted:


Chi 21.5 -- This seems depressed because of Bulls fan depression. It's really hard to lose this many games. Over

The Bulls have, by my count, like 3 NBA players on the entire roster, and one of them is old, broken, and has literally no incentive to do anything other than save his knees for the Cavs.

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Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Dejan Bimble posted:

Dal 35.5 -- I like their future but their present is very uninspiring. Rookie PGs are never good. If Dennis Smith ends the season with a positive +/- it will prove Dirk and Rick Carlisle are the PG steroids. Staying away

Noel being on the roster all season instead of just at the end (+no Bogut) should account for the Mavs winning at minimum 2 more wins than last season. Having a point guard other than Devin Harris play more than 40 games will also help. Yogi/DSJ/Barea/Harris will presumably be a much more stable/healthy pg rotation than last year. People that didn't watch the Mavs forget how dire their point guard situation was before they signed Yogi. Roster continuity should also account for a few more wins than last season. DSJ may be starting but Carlisle would bench anyone in crunch time if it means winning a game. It really wouldn't shock me if their crunch time 5 is Yogi/Matthews/Barnes/Dirk/Noel.

Players likely to be in the rotation are
DSJ/Yogi/Barea
Matthews/Curry/Harris
Barnes/DFS
Dirk/Powell
Noel/Salah

A lot of those guys now know their role on the team. It's also not unrealistic to think Yogi, Curry, Barnes, DFS, and Noel could be better players than last season.

Spacebump fucked around with this message at 05:54 on Aug 30, 2017

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