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Happy to be a part of the spiciest thing to happen ITT since, I dunno, the last Money Mustache post. Also yeah agreed that it makes sense to go peak-to-peak, we're talking about the start of the recession, not the end of it. Also also to be clear recessions are large-scale nightmares, artificial disasters, cause massive human misery, in an ideal world they would not occur, and so this bet's kind of morbid, sorry if it bothers anyone.
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Sep 4, 2017 23:57
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If anyone wants to take a bet on their wager, I'll give you 5 to one odds on Mofabio for amounts above 500 million.
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Sep 5, 2017 00:01
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Reminder that this is dumb because regardless of whether there is or isn't a recession in the next 15 months, neither of them prove or disprove it being correct to pull out of the market based on a silly intuition. he might be right for the wrong reasons, or wrong but pulled out for the right reasons. but if we're going with the 'let's stop talking about this' route then sure, let's settle it with a bet!!
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Sep 5, 2017 00:12
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Blinky2099 posted:Reminder that this is dumb because regardless of whether there is or isn't a recession in the next 15 months, neither of them prove or disprove it being correct to pull out of the market based on a silly intuition. he might be right for the wrong reasons, or wrong but pulled out for the right reasons.
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Sep 5, 2017 00:18
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Blinky2099 posted:Reminder that this is dumb because regardless of whether there is or isn't a recession in the next 15 months, neither of them prove or disprove it being correct to pull out of the market based on a silly intuition. he might be right for the wrong reasons, or wrong but pulled out for the right reasons. Hey I haven't even won yet and you're already trying to undermine my glorious victory. Can't wait to read SA classics like the camel spider thread without images, the World Trade Center guy photoshop thread without images, but especially the old TCC threads so that I can watch, helpless, as teenagers cascade into drug-induced psychosis, without images. But I'd trade it all for a world where NBER back-dates the market peak to August 2017. Ralith will have loving earned it. Mofabio fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Sep 5, 2017 |
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Sep 5, 2017 00:43
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Ralith posted:I'm not sure where you got the idea that it's supposed to prove something about the viability of amateur technical analysis. A bet like this serves only to demonstrate sincerity--each of us is willing to take it because we sincerely expect better-than-even odds of winning. Mofabio pretty clearly thinks that winning this bet would mean that they are/were correct to trade in the way they've described. I and others have pointed out that this does not follow.
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Sep 5, 2017 00:49
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Alhireth-Hotep posted:Mofabio pretty clearly thinks that winning this bet would mean that they are/were correct to trade in the way they've described. I and others have pointed out that this does not follow. You know what would follow though? A sick archives account, courtesy my Trade Nemesis, the dreadful Ralith. I can't wait to read this thread for eternity, the thread where I made extremely sick moves and bets all for the right reasons. Page 61's gonna be my homepage, which I will read on my gold-painted used Thinkpad. Yep, everything's coming up Mofabio. Please don't quote this when I lose.
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Sep 5, 2017 01:06
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oops didn't mean to post
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Sep 5, 2017 01:56
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Why dont you guys just bet on the value of VTSMX at the end of 2018?
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Sep 5, 2017 02:31
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That sounds like something immature people would do who just want to stop arguing. No thanks.
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Sep 5, 2017 02:55
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Evil Robot posted:Why dont you guys just bet on the value of VTSMX at the end of 2018?
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Sep 5, 2017 03:45
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Just a reminder that NBER dating is imperfect, given that every other developed economy calls a recession with 2 consecutive quarters of real negative GDP growth while NBER relies on Robert Hall to decide when and if a recession has happened. Also you won't really know the outcome until middle of 2019, because there's often enormous lag because the macro markers take so long to come in. My $0.02.
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Sep 5, 2017 13:45
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"it's not timing the market" is the new "it's not a pyramid scheme"
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Sep 5, 2017 14:31
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Cicero posted:you may well end up losing compared to just buy and hold, because the market may continue to rise before the recession, and so the bottom of the recession might still be higher than the point at which you reallocated to safer investments. This right here is, in my view, the best argument to be made on this topic. Especially when you add in the fact that it's basically impossible to know when you should buy back in. 2008-2009 had a lot of false bottoms. Sure, you could set a rule for yourself such as "I will re-allocate to stocks once the S&P500 has dropped 15% below peak". Well, what if the absolute bottom ends up being 14%, and you miss the bottom? Also, to steal MMM's image:  Notice the length of business cycles has trended upward over time. Why couldn't this cycle set a new record, by a significant amount? We may have several years left before the next bust. Rick Rickshaw fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Sep 5, 2017 |
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Sep 5, 2017 14:46
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Plus you're counting the baby recession in 2001-03 in there as a break between cycles, which was arguably not a recession at all via quarterly definitions. You could make a decent argument that the macro business cycle was something like 1991-2007.
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Sep 5, 2017 15:01
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Also the one that ended in 2001 was accelerated by 9/11 a non economic event so hypothetically outside of that the run was 1991-2007 which is much longer than current. It also assumes that recessions are "natural" and must happen
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Sep 5, 2017 15:03
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The weirdest part to me is the audience (this thread). Even if you can time the market, nobody in this thread should need to do it. We don't even have to beat the market, we just have to not lose to it. And you'd have to beat it by a lot or for a long time to make a meaningful change in your FI timeline. And the farther you try to get ahead of the market, the more risk you're going to have to assume. I just don't think that the increased risk lines up with this specific goal and method.
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Sep 5, 2017 15:56
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market's going real well, get to push up my retirement by a few years 
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Sep 5, 2017 15:57
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Bhodi posted:market's going real well, get to push up my retirement by a few years SORRY
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Sep 5, 2017 16:02
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Dr. Eldarion posted:SORRY Timing the market on investments is one thing, timing your retirement date is a very different thing.
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Sep 5, 2017 16:06
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Is it too late in this market timing discussion to post Bob, the world's worst market timer hypothetical?
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Sep 5, 2017 17:45
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It is never too late for that.
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Sep 5, 2017 18:01
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Hit us with the Bob chart, Geiz!
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Sep 5, 2017 19:10
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Sorry to interrupt recession-chat, but I'm making my way through this thread and I routinely see people saying that their version of financial independence would involve continuing to work in a part-time capacity. In that situation, I know that I would personally find a position teaching kids about the outdoors, but I'm genuinely interested in what types of part-time work you see yourselves potentially taking on. Anecdotally, I remember working as a cashier and training an elderly guy at one point. He was a retiree from some professional position who only took the job in order to get out of the house. Seemed like a pretty poo poo way to spend retirement, and I'm assuming that goons with the willpower to save half of their take-home have more fleshed out plans than that.
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Sep 5, 2017 19:51
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I overall like the tech/software dev work that I do, but I would love to cut it down to a flexible 15-20 hrs/wk and work on something more meaningful/fulfilling. The market price of good software dev work is sky high, which obviously makes it lucrative to be in the industry, but there's a lot of smaller businesses/organizations doing good work that are less flush with cash that could benefit from some technical leadership, they just can't afford it at market rate. Something along those lines could be interesting and worthwhile, and I should try to get involved now, but after working my full time dev job the last thing I want to do in my spare time is more dev work.
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Sep 5, 2017 20:13
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After I retire I can dedicate myself to my true passion - handling GBS reports.
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Sep 5, 2017 20:21
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I'd like to work as a part time flight instructor for myself or a small school. Already did it and miss it but I don't miss being poor or bad students trying to get us killed. It's also a good way to die young enough that I wont have to worry about running out of money.
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Sep 5, 2017 20:41
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Baronash posted:Sorry to interrupt recession-chat, but I'm making my way through this thread and I routinely see people saying that their version of financial independence would involve continuing to work in a part-time capacity. In that situation, I know that I would personally find a position teaching kids about the outdoors, but I'm genuinely interested in what types of part-time work you see yourselves potentially taking on. One under-discussed thing FI allows is massive, ten-year, unprofitable projects normally available to only professors and the born-rich. Linking up with a youth org is fantastic and please don't mistake what I'm about to say for dragging your idea: it's weekend-scale. Give yourself the freedom to dream even bigger. Investigate that dream to find whatever shard of it is pulling you towards it, and allow yourself to be pulled. Most creative energy lasts 72 hours, people jump from hot project to hot project, and it's not because of personal faults, it's because of the way work is structured and the time demands placed on us by our bosses and families. FI restructures that. I've been working on the same project for 5 years now, it required me to build a my own CNC machines, take classes at the junior college, learn scattershot mechanical engineering, basic circuits, functional programming, [re-learn] vector calc, and a hundred other tiny skills. Last night I re-wrote some g-code subroutines to up the dwell time at the end of a bore in order to keep the edge sharper, added some spring cuts cuz the dimensions were off, and to fall asleep I started coding a way to de-manifold this 3D model I'm working on so I can attach additional models and make it a solid polyhedra so my 3D printer is happy. Today I'm gonna hopefully part-off the piece, take dimensions, and if everything's gravy put on an album and needle-file some keyways. Maybe tonight and tomorrow I'll finish coding that bit. Find the deep shard in your dream that links it to your fundamental curiosities and vision for a better world, let the dream expand, and it'll pull you towards it.
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Sep 5, 2017 20:46
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or you could just play a lot of video games
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Sep 5, 2017 21:10
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Dr. Eldarion posted:or you could just play a lot of video games
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Sep 5, 2017 23:52
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Dr. Eldarion posted:or you could just make a lot of video/board/card/hentai games
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Sep 6, 2017 00:51
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Hit us with the Bob chart, Geiz! http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ Phone posting so nothing fancy but you get the idea. Of course this isn't so much about timing and more about the value of buy and hold. But anything is better than "I'm not trying to time the market, but I'm getting out of equities before this recession takes hold!" Edit for actual FI info: I managed to make it to a position that will hopefully get me to my FI goal in the next three years. Active duty military pension plus lifetime health insurance for me and the spouse. Between that and savings we'll be completely work optional right at the same time we're choosing where we want to settle down for our daughter's grade school years. Geizkragen fucked around with this message at 02:59 on Sep 6, 2017 |
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Sep 6, 2017 02:53
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Cicero posted:Of course it's more likely. The problem is that even when that's true and you use it as the basis for a strategy, you may well end up losing compared to just buy and hold, because the market may continue to rise before the recession, and so the bottom of the recession might still be higher than the point at which you reallocated to safer investments. You might also end up paying taxes on capital gains instead of continuing to earn compound interest on that money
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Sep 6, 2017 02:58
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Baronash posted:Sorry to interrupt recession-chat, but I'm making my way through this thread and I routinely see people saying that their version of financial independence would involve continuing to work in a part-time capacity. In that situation, I know that I would personally find a position teaching kids about the outdoors, but I'm genuinely interested in what types of part-time work you see yourselves potentially taking on. I'm already doing the work that I like, but I would change the balance of the work. Rather than working full time as a consulting engineer I'd cut down to part time hours. That would enable me to spend more time on rendering 3d graphics of which I just want to make trippy looking stuff. I'd probably do more VJing and public performances which I've have been doing. Maybe make a film or two rather than the occasional short film or music video. If I gave up working I'd see about VJing for stadium events because I don't have the free time to travel for an extended period of time.
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Sep 6, 2017 05:11
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Mofabio, if you throw a wild rear end guess and say you have exactly 2 dollars and 33 cents in your pocket, then reach in, and after meticulously counting happen to find 2.33$, you didn't "know it". You just happened to be right that time.
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Sep 6, 2017 10:45
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Mofabio posted:One under-discussed thing FI allows is massive, ten-year, unprofitable projects normally available to only professors and the born-rich. Linking up with a youth org is fantastic and please don't mistake what I'm about to say for dragging your idea: it's weekend-scale. Give yourself the freedom to dream even bigger. Investigate that dream to find whatever shard of it is pulling you towards it, and allow yourself to be pulled. Most creative energy lasts 72 hours, people jump from hot project to hot project, and it's not because of personal faults, it's because of the way work is structured and the time demands placed on us by our bosses and families. FI restructures that. Yep, this is a great point. We aren't FI yet, but are financially set enough that if I have a period of unemployment, I just do house projects instead while collecting UI til another job in my field comes up. We are about 60% done a massive 36 square meter greenhouse that I designed and am building by myself. No internal supports, all glass (no plexi) will have a raised bed inside, tile floors and a woodstove. No way I could have gotten this done while working a 9-5, the materials would rot or blow away by the time I was done. As it is I'm almost at the 1 year mark working on it (started it while working full time, it's only the past 2-3 months I've had full time, which corresponded well to when it was time to affix the glass panes). Our FIRE plans? Our son will be 8 by the time we should be able to retire, so lots of adventure time with him and whatever projects he's into. More house projects (we bought summer house land I want to build a house on myself) plus I'd like to get accredited to teach carpentry at the high school level here in Iceland.
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Sep 6, 2017 12:52
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poopinmymouth posted:We are about 60% done a massive 36 square meter greenhouse that I designed and am building by myself. No internal supports, all glass (no plexi) will have a raised bed inside, tile floors and a woodstove. No way I could have gotten this done while working a 9-5, the materials would rot or blow away by the time I was done. As it is I'm almost at the 1 year mark working on it (started it while working full time, it's only the past 2-3 months I've had full time, which corresponded well to when it was time to affix the glass panes). Hell yeah  . Biting into something you grew in there for the first time might be a peak life experience. Post pics when it's done!Vahakyla posted:Mofabio, if you throw a wild rear end guess and say you have exactly 2 dollars and 33 cents in your pocket, then reach in, and after meticulously counting happen to find 2.33$, you didn't "know it". You just happened to be right that time. Any man of letters knows such unlikely predictions are due simply to small earthen spirits that flit to and fro our spectral realm, leveling mischief upon skeptics and nonbelievers. The wise reserve accurately-counted pocket money in clay vessels covered with investment runes, for $2.33 blessed by the spirits may yield much more, in time. Read "The Four Pillars of Investing".
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Sep 6, 2017 18:57
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Mofabio posted:Read "The Four Cairnstones of Investing".
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Sep 6, 2017 19:02
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Anyone ever tell you that they "sent the money"? Sounds a lot like they just cent it, like, $0.01. Somewhere the poorest financial statements were just opened for upheaval. NEVER SEND MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Sep 7, 2017 01:13
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Hey, I haven't read the FI thread in a long, looks like I've missed some pos... https://i.imgur.com/cMWalaa.mp4
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Sep 7, 2017 20:41
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