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ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
I don't really know that it would be a true betrayal. It's jury management, and it was the truth, and if he were next to Christmas in final 2, he'd have to cut much deeper than that to get the money.

As for Jason and Maven. I have no faith that they will figure anything out and quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised if the whole jury falls in line with Cody.

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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I figure Cody is in there each week saying "I told you all Paul would run things and you all just did what he wanted" but its also Cody so odds are he's saying "You're all idiots, dogs, and groupies" which might undermine his influence a bit.

The best Jury scenario for Josh and Christmas is that everyone besides Cody basically realizes "Hey, we all planned to team up with Paul so we shouldn't disrespect Josh and Christmas for doing that since then we'd just be calling ourself floaters or pawns." But this group doesn't seem to have that kind of self awareness and humility and unless Dr. Will/Dan/Derrick shows up preaching it (and I doubt he would as he and CBS would probably push the Paul puppetmaster narrative) there probably isn't that one person they kind of need to advocate for them and make people see a perspective other than Cody's.

ToastyPotato posted:

I don't really know that it would be a true betrayal. It's jury management, and it was the truth, and if he were next to Christmas in final 2, he'd have to cut much deeper than that to get the money.
Truth or not, Josh seemed to agree with Christmas to vote out Raven and then changed his vote on his own. If he had also went to Raven and said "I was the one who didn't vote you out (so Christmas and Paul are the ones who did)" that's pretty shady to the one person who is supposed to be your "ride and die." It may be intended to throw Paul under the bus but Christmas is collateral damage.

Honestly, Josh's only chance at winning might be to stay loyal to Christmas to the bitter end and then say "no matter what happened Christmas had my back in Week 1 and I had her back at every single turn since then and together we fought our way all the way from the bottom to the top." I don't think the Jury will care about that because they're all egomaniacs who only care if he betrayed them. But its probably his best argument.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Paul has had an unprecedented vice grip on this game. After Jason went out, look at who was still in the house:

Raven, would take Paul final two
Alex, would take Paul final two
Kevin, would take Paul final two
Christmas, would take Paul final two
Josh, wouldn't, voted wrong on the Raven eviction, emotional, questioning Paul's orders

People throw competitions basically on command and I think the HOH has nominated his choice of players every HOH back to, hm, I think every single loving round since jury started.

But he's so drat shook about losing the jury vote to Nicole (by one vote mind you) that:
1) he's lying in his goodbye videos
2) he's giving future jurors orders for what to say in the jury house
3) he's fixed on bringing the one person who doesn't want him at the end to the end since he thinks that's the one slam dunk f2 opponent

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Sep 13, 2017

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
With noms, Alex's noms during DE were the only ones where she clearly just did what she was told because of blind trust as they didn't really benefit her one way or the other and she expressed regret after. Jason refused to put up Kevin, who Paul really wanted on the block. Christmas needed Jason gone clear as day, so that one doesn't really count for much either. Cody, Mark and Elena were pretty clear and easy targets for the house and each had willing pawns to get them out. So out of 6 jury members, Raven was the only one who basically wasn't a clear target and was kind of just "chosen" by Paul and to a lesser extent Christmas.

^burtle
Jul 17, 2001

God of Boomin'



I really thought Alex was angling for a backdoor, but Josh not using the veto is what tanked her plan.

Snowmankilla
Dec 6, 2000

True, true

Snowmankilla posted:

Never seen a better improvement in 10 min then Josh. Got rid of one of the strongest players, poisoned the jury against Paul. Perfect play by Josh.

Quoting myself because Josh is now hosed. The last 3 evictions think Josh was behind them. He got rid of the one person fighting for him? Kevin hates him. Xmas admitted to him she likes Paul more. Paul wants to take a cripple and an old man poo poo floater.

So loving stupid.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

Snowmankilla posted:

Quoting myself because Josh is now hosed. The last 3 evictions think Josh was behind them. He got rid of the one person fighting for him? Kevin hates him. Xmas admitted to him she likes Paul more. Paul wants to take a cripple and an old man poo poo floater.

So loving stupid.

Agree. I've been saying Josh has been botching since DE, but this sealed it. What's worse is that he seemed to want to split the vote to blindside Kevin at some point but I guess changed his mind. Josh has never been a genius but his management of the past week has been god awful and now he has blood on his hands that he shouldn't, even when he was well aware that Paul was loving him over. Just bad play. Josh now has to make it through F4 AND win Final HOH or else he is toast. Which, less face it, is unlikely. Paul pretty much just won the season and again, minimal work on his part needed to be done since someone else fumbled miserably to his benefit.

lament.cfg
Dec 28, 2006

we have such posts
to show you




Christmas threw the HOH, right? So that she doesn't have to put Josh on the block?

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
That would make the most sense. She is basically guaranteed F3 since it is unlikely she will be able to win, let alone even compete, in 2 of the 3 games, so why get blood on her hands with this HOH?

Orange Sunshine
May 10, 2011

by FactsAreUseless
It makes absolutely no difference who the HOH puts on the block when you're down to 4 people. Whoever wins the veto decides who's on the block and who goes home.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I'm leaning towards her throwing that HOH. Incidentally I also think that's why she didn't commit to F2 with Josh. I don't think she said she prefers Paul at all. If we take her at her (DR) word she said she thinks she'll beat Josh and I can't imagine she's as confident against Paul. But she probably realizes that she has a bad chance at winning that F3 HOH and both guys might take her to F2 so she's probably avoiding making a commitment and getting any more blood on her hands. So there's no real strategic upside in betraying one over the other before hand. Josh will probably get over it and forgive her but Paul's petty enough to evict her over it or at least use it as justification.

As much as Josh is a mess socially I'm really not sure what he could have done differently. The one thing I can really think is he could have flat out told Alex that he was planning to backdoor Paul. Maybe that would have put a bigger fire under her. But she didn't appear to be throwing that POV and its reasonable to assume she'd be fighting for it to save her rear end. And knowing Alex she probably would have told Paul and it would have blown up in Josh's face.

I don't see why in the world it would have made sense for Josh to evict Kevin over Alex, and Paul splitting the votes just hosed Josh once again. Its what Paul's been doing all season and if Josh was ok with it than that's on him. But we've seen all season that Paul just does what he wants with no regard to how much it clearly fucks his allies so I'm not sure Josh could have done anything to prevent it.

Which isn't to say that I disagree that Josh is hosed. I just thought he was hosed at F2 since Week 1. This Jury would never give Josh the money and admit he beat them. Everyone except Christmas spent the entire season either berating him or treating him like a stupid puppy and there's no way they could live with him winning the game over them. They might have given Matt or Raven the win over him.

On the bright side we saw with Alex how Paul's style of play burns people so there's always a chance he Hantz' himself. And Paul seems genuinely convinced he's played some benevolent game and not a totally snake one so he could potentially freak if someone calls him out even in the short BB Jury questions. And worst case scenario if he wins hopefully we won't have to see him again.

At least until All Stars 2 or Coaches 2 when we're cursed with Frankie and Paul.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 08:24 on Sep 14, 2017

Orange Sunshine
May 10, 2011

by FactsAreUseless

STAC Goat posted:


On the bright side we saw with Alex how Paul's style of play burns people so there's always a chance he Hantz' himself. And Paul seems genuinely convinced he's played some benevolent game and not a totally snake one so he could potentially freak if someone calls him out even in the short BB Jury questions. And worst case scenario if he wins hopefully we won't have to see him again.

At least until All Stars 2 or Coaches 2 when we're cursed with Frankie and Paul.

Why do you dislike Paul? On the show, he doesn't seem to be unlikeable.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

I think Christmas wants Paul with her at final two because she knows where the skeletons are buried

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I find him to be a loud, brash, obnoxious rear end in a top hat. The show is very generous to him and has been for 2 seasons. It doesn't show how he poo poo talks everyone all the time and works up the house to hate each other or outright bullies people. Or how incredibly arrogant he is and talks endlessly about what a major celebrity he is, what an amazing player he is who knows everything, and how funny everything he says in DR is. He's always full of poo poo like this crying he's suddenly doing that is all an act to try and cover the fact that he has to finally openly backstab some people instead of how in the past he's just stood back and blamed someone else. There's a reason his dumb comic name was "Potty Mouth" and Zingbot said "Shut the gently caress up, Paul" last year.

In small TV doses I might not hate him either. And a lot of the time I can tolerate him and he wasn't my most hated of the season. Actually I don't think I was outright hating him until this week, and I stopped watching feeds weeks ago. Usually I just can't listen to him and have to turn it off. But when he started up the fake crying and self righteous "I did everything I could for you but it hurts me so much that you're mad that I lied to you and betrayed you and mocked you behind your back" stuff I was just instantly done with him.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Christmas could easily commit to Josh for f2 because she's going to be dq'd from the final HOH anyway so who cares if it's true, right? It's not a promise she'd have to break. I really wanted to see Josh save Alex because he harped on about how he wanted to do it for quite awhile, and actively tried to get Paul to put that vote on Kevin and make him the tiebreaker... but then he doesn't do it. That's just weak, wishy washy gameplay. Now, would it have been a good move? I lean toward no because Alex being loyal to Josh wouldn't be a sure thing even after saving her, and she might be tough to beat at the end. But there's positives in it too, if you feel Paul is unbeatable, and this is you winning the respect of the jury by proactively turning against Paul (which nobody else really did after Cody week 1), and this is you (attempting) getting a strong physical threat to help go against Paul. Plus she'd still be a bigger target than Josh, probably.

Orange Sunshine posted:

It makes absolutely no difference who the HOH puts on the block when you're down to 4 people. Whoever wins the veto decides who's on the block and who goes home.
Yeah it's like HOH becomes the veto and the veto becomes HOH.

Faustian Bargain
Apr 12, 2014


STAC Goat posted:

I find him to be a loud, brash, obnoxious rear end in a top hat. The show is very generous to him and has been for 2 seasons. It doesn't show how he poo poo talks everyone all the time and works up the house to hate each other or outright bullies people. Or how incredibly arrogant he is and talks endlessly about what a major celebrity he is, what an amazing player he is who knows everything, and how funny everything he says in DR is. He's always full of poo poo like this crying he's suddenly doing that is all an act to try and cover the fact that he has to finally openly backstab some people instead of how in the past he's just stood back and blamed someone else. There's a reason his dumb comic name was "Potty Mouth" and Zingbot said "Shut the gently caress up, Paul" last year.

In small TV doses I might not hate him either. And a lot of the time I can tolerate him and he wasn't my most hated of the season. Actually I don't think I was outright hating him until this week, and I stopped watching feeds weeks ago. Usually I just can't listen to him and have to turn it off. But when he started up the fake crying and self righteous "I did everything I could for you but it hurts me so much that you're mad that I lied to you and betrayed you and mocked you behind your back" stuff I was just instantly done with him.
The thing I don't like about Paul is when he pretends he wasn't part of things, like with going off on Josh when Jason went home. Maybe it's because we have the outside perspective, but I thought that was really stupid.

Do the jury members get to watch the episodes or just the competitions? Do they know the votes? What does the jury get to see?

Trebek
Mar 7, 2002
College Slice
I'm going to watch the finale just to see everyone's face when Cody wins AFP.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Faustian Bargain posted:

The thing I don't like about Paul is when he pretends he wasn't part of things, like with going off on Josh when Jason went home. Maybe it's because we have the outside perspective, but I thought that was really stupid.

Do the jury members get to watch the episodes or just the competitions? Do they know the votes? What does the jury get to see?
But that was a plan Paul made ahead of time that worked out exactly as planned and helped the whole Poshmas trio! Paul told Josh prior that they'd stage a fight, and what it let him do was fool Alex into thinking he was still with her. This was the contingency for if Alex won HOH, that he could then feasibly still pretend to be her ally and thus control her. She does win that HOH, and Paul tells her they need to put up Raven and Kevin, and she does it. We saw her say Christmas and Josh betrayed her but that she has no one else to trust so she needs to take Paul's suggestion. I get it was annoying to see if you just think he's full of poo poo covering his rear end and whatever, and if Alex hadn't won HOH it would've looked even more unnecessary and hacky, but it ended up actually being one of his highlight moves of the season.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Bully, bigoted, moron, violent psycho, possible-worst-player-ever Cody winning AFP would truly be the poo poo cherry on this season.

Faustian Bargain posted:

The thing I don't like about Paul is when he pretends he wasn't part of things, like with going off on Josh when Jason went home. Maybe it's because we have the outside perspective, but I thought that was really stupid.

Do the jury members get to watch the episodes or just the competitions? Do they know the votes? What does the jury get to see?

All they get to see are the TV ceremonies and comps. No DRs. But Raven's sitting in Jury and she knows Paul was full of poo poo and Jason was the plan all along. She might not want to sell Paul out but I don't know if she'd go so far as to lie for him in Jury which could be countered a week later when someone else comes in.

Fast Luck posted:

But that was a plan Paul made ahead of time that worked out exactly as planned and helped the whole Poshmas trio! Paul told Josh prior that they'd stage a fight, and what it let him do was fool Alex into thinking he was still with her. This was the contingency for if Alex won HOH, that he could then feasibly still pretend to be her ally and thus control her. She does win that HOH, and Paul tells her they need to put up Raven and Kevin, and she does it. We saw her say Christmas and Josh betrayed her but that she has no one else to trust so she needs to take Paul's suggestion. I get it was annoying to see if you just think he's full of poo poo covering his rear end and whatever, and if Alex hadn't won HOH it would've looked even more unnecessary and hacky, but it ended up actually being one of his highlight moves of the season.
That's a fair enough account but there's also the part where Josh really, really didn't want to do that and Paul just pushed and pushed and then did it anyway and put Josh in a position to either play along or cause a big problem (and it did cause drama between him and Christmas).

Fast Luck posted:

Christmas could easily commit to Josh for f2 because she's going to be dq'd from the final HOH anyway so who cares if it's true, right? It's not a promise she'd have to break. I really wanted to see Josh save Alex because he harped on about how he wanted to do it for quite awhile, and actively tried to get Paul to put that vote on Kevin and make him the tiebreaker... but then he doesn't do it. That's just weak, wishy washy gameplay. Now, would it have been a good move? I lean toward no because Alex being loyal to Josh wouldn't be a sure thing even after saving her, and she might be tough to beat at the end. But there's positives in it too, if you feel Paul is unbeatable, and this is you winning the respect of the jury by proactively turning against Paul (which nobody else really did after Cody week 1), and this is you (attempting) getting a strong physical threat to help go against Paul. Plus she'd still be a bigger target than Josh, probably.
I don't think the bigger concern would be having to break the deal with Josh (she said she thinks she'd beat him so it stands to reason she'd choose him if she had to). I think its more that there's reason to make that promise and worry about it getting back to Paul if its not one you think you need to make. Christmas has generally played a "only lie or make promises when you have to" game, IMO, and she's always kind of hedged her bets on deals like that. She's always pushed it as a F3 with Paul and balked at Josh's attempts to target Paul early. I think that's a mistake on Christmas' part but she's tried to play a "loyal" game all season and I get why that would include not undermining Paul at F3 if there's no upside in it for her.

I don't think it would have made any sense to keep Alex in the game with Paul. Maybe that makes sense if you think you can turn Alex against him but Alex is the same person who threw F7 HOH at Paul's say so, let Paul control her F6 HOH even after that blew up, and then stayed loyal to him at F5 and was excited about him winning POV even though it blew up again and Paul admitted having a hand in it that time. Maybe Paul not using the POV is the final straw but can you really gamble that on Alex to put her into F4 where she and Paul could possible run the board?

Speaking nothing of the simple fact that as Josh said, he couldn't beat Alex. She's arguably the biggest jury threat. Cody and Mark loved her and she had generally good relationships with everyone else besides Kevin and Elena (and the Elena thing was pretty much all Elena's actions). And everyone regarded her as a bad rear end and hardcore player who had to fight for her life, which goes directly to the criticisms people have about Josh and Christmas ("floaters") and Paul ("was never challenged").

Faustian Bargain
Apr 12, 2014


Fast Luck posted:

But that was a plan Paul made ahead of time that worked out exactly as planned and helped the whole Poshmas trio! Paul told Josh prior that they'd stage a fight, and what it let him do was fool Alex into thinking he was still with her. This was the contingency for if Alex won HOH, that he could then feasibly still pretend to be her ally and thus control her. She does win that HOH, and Paul tells her they need to put up Raven and Kevin, and she does it. We saw her say Christmas and Josh betrayed her but that she has no one else to trust so she needs to take Paul's suggestion. I get it was annoying to see if you just think he's full of poo poo covering his rear end and whatever, and if Alex hadn't won HOH it would've looked even more unnecessary and hacky, but it ended up actually being one of his highlight moves of the season.
I get that, I just don't like how he executes it. "I was going to go home Josh? Bro, you were going to do that to me too?????"

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

I don't think it would have made any sense to keep Alex in the game with Paul. Maybe that makes sense if you think you can turn Alex against him but Alex is the same person who threw F7 HOH at Paul's say so, let Paul control her F6 HOH even after that blew up, and then stayed loyal to him at F5 and was excited about him winning POV even though it blew up again and Paul admitted having a hand in it that time. Maybe Paul not using the POV is the final straw but can you really gamble that on Alex to put her into F4 where she and Paul could possible run the board?

Speaking nothing of the simple fact that as Josh said, he couldn't beat Alex. She's arguably the biggest jury threat. Cody and Mark loved her and she had generally good relationships with everyone else besides Kevin and Elena (and the Elena thing was pretty much all Elena's actions). And everyone regarded her as a bad rear end and hardcore player who had to fight for her life, which goes directly to the criticisms people have about Josh and Christmas ("floaters") and Paul ("was never challenged").
Yeah, well I think Josh has been hosed for awhile at F2, because he lost everyone's respect with his many freakouts and meltdowns and basic immaturity. If he's ever going to have a shot he either needs people to really hate Paul (which, you know, maybe not a completely hopeless bet) or he needs to do something big to win people's respect, and targeting Paul in a big way could be the door to that. Imagine if when he's breaking the tie, he says, "Alex, it was Paul's idea for you to go up, because he's scared you can beat him at comps, and he's scared you can beat him in front of the jury. But I'm tired of playing Paul's game. I hope you'll join me in taking on Paul and his fake 'friendship.' I vote to evict Kevin." I'm not insisting this would've been the better move but drat if it wouldn't have been cool as hell, and when they played that tape back on jury house? Everyone would've stood up and clapped!! :)

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

To his credit he very much seemed to be targeting Paul last week and it just didn't work out. I agree with that approach more than yours because that leaves Paul in as an enemy and Alex as a wildcard. Josh is basically the only person beside Cody to actually even sniff at targeting Paul all game, but unfortunately for him that's going to be hard to sell to anyone since it didn't work out and he didn't share it with anyone.

Funny thing is Josh has twice wanted to make a big backdoor move with his HOH but both times it fell apart because his pawns didn't trust or respect him enough to consider that or give him the time of day. And both were kind of idiots.

That's Josh's problem and its always been. No one (besides maybe Christmas) has ever actually respected him as a player because of his emotional immaturity. Then he played into it with all his pots and pans stuff and fights. He'd argue that was game to keep himself useful as a shield and weapon and help his team, but it fed into everyone's first impressions of the guy and solidified them. I don't think defying Paul to take out the goatiest of goats in Kevin would really do anything to change that. Taking Paul out MIGHT have but I even doubt that. Its just tough to shake hard impressions people have of you in the house and its why most of the Jury Management is done throughout the 100 days and the relationships you build with people. And a significant portion of this jury could barely work up the energy to treat Josh like a human being most of the summer.

But none of that really convinces me that keeping Alex around to have 2 shots at the F4 HOH/POV and then 2 shots at the F3 HOH was a smart move for him. Josh is in a poo poo position for F2 but he's at least in a decent position for F3 right now with Christmas hobbled, Kevin Kevin, and Paul in a position where it makes no Jury Management sense for him to win POV.

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


I think there's a hypothetical Alex who it would have made sense to keep, and then there was the real Alex who would be a huge risk to just bounce back to Paul and sell you out.

The "big group" was always bad for anyone who didn't want to go to the very end with Paul. Matt, Raven, Alex, Kevin and (in practice) Jason were just dumb numbers. And they showed nothing to make it look like they would be any different - maybe Kevin being genuinely catatonic is a bit of a surprise. If Josh didn't want this, I guess the move was there to be made earlier: throw everything you know at Jason, who at least wanted to be independent, or find a way to stop the Pagonging at Mark and Elena. And both of those things came with huge, huge risks for Josh or anyone, I just don't know what else was out there. No one could have just put up Paul and got him out with how the endgame was set up.

But it all worked out for him, didn't it? I think he's in a great position, I had no idea Paul actually wanted to take him to F2. He has a fair chance to win there (not 50:50, but not 0) and he has a fair chance to win the goofy questions and cut Paul at 3 like Steve did.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, there was just never really a convenient time to take a shot at Paul. Paul did too good a job securing trust with people through his safe weeks, then the Jody purgatory hell month just cemented all that stuff and gave Paul nothing to do except play everyone as his loyal soldiers. Then it just gets to a point where even if you wanted to take a shot at Paul and thought he was suspicious - as Josh and Christmas have voiced at different times going back to Josh's first HOH week pre-jury - you'd just have to somehow turn a bunch of people who are convinced Paul has their backs over yours. And how do you convince someone that Paul's lying to them if they're convinced he's lying to everyone BUT them?

Its dumb they all fell for that and its especially dumb that Jason and Alex were willing to gamble their games entirely on Paul's loyalty (it was dumb for Maven too but its not like they were ever actually playing). But its the way poo poo shook out after the neverending Jody evictions and I'm not sure anyone could have gotten Paul out before Josh's failed shot last week.

Hell, I'm not entirely convinced Josh would have got Paul out last week. He would have had to convince Christmas or Alex to do it I'm not convinced the two of them wouldn't have just voted out Kevin.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
Also, the earlier in the game you go, the fewer lies Paul was actually telling. The only really dishonest thing Paul had going on before all the other couples were busted was that he was saying he was loyal to them, and even then, he kinda was, because he didn't betray any of them until the Matt eviction.

Also I really liked your comparison of Paul's game this year to Andy and Vanessa in the feeds thread.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, the first half of Paul's game was snakey/dishonest but it was more in the payoffs than the actual actions. He promised a lot of loyalty that he could just never keep to but for the most part he just went with what the majority wanted, whether he pushed it to start or just jumped on board when it was already happening.

Its the basic problem Cody, Jess, and Dom had calling him out. They weren't wrong that Paul was a snake and was playing everyone. But he hadn't actually done anything yet or betrayed anyone while they had. So it not only undermined their arguments but ended up giving Paul all this collateral of trust to trade off of for when he eventually did start overtly backstabbing people. As much as I don't like the guy he did a really good job using those openings to just build that trust and then keep his hands just clean enough to milk it for plausible deniability.

pospysyl
Nov 10, 2012



Cody's redeeming characteristic is his utter contempt for the rest of the cast.

Edit: You can see how Kevin's brattiness really worked out as gameplay. Everyone just buys the completely implausible premise that they're going to backdoor Kevin just to keep him quiet.

pospysyl fucked around with this message at 02:16 on Sep 15, 2017

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Paul's attempted jury management is so delusional. If he doesn't make F2 I'll be so freaking mad, I wanna see him insist to every single player, lying to their face, that he was always with them, or finally fess up and get "blood on his hands"

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


I'm not sure if they laughed or they played their hearts out but they definitely cried, 1/3 is a great batting average

lament.cfg
Dec 28, 2006

we have such posts
to show you




Paul needs to pull Kevin down, evict Josh, and count on Christmas not being able to win HOH. Paul/Kevin F2 is his only guaranteed win.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
I have no faith in Josh to pull out the final win, so the only realistic hope is that the final questioning blows up in Paul's face and he loses by 1 vote again. The only reason it is a hope is because Paul actually believes his own hype and the fact of the matter is, while he did play a pretty good game, better than average for sure, it wasn't the crazy mastermind genius game he believes it was. So my hope is that the ego we have seen from Paul takes over on finale night, and we get some fireworks. If a smarter, humble Paul shows up, then he deserves the money.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
I think we need to move to America voting for the winner from the final two. More and more it seems like bitter juries are going to give the win to the weaker player based on spite, and it discourages future players from fully playing the game. No one takes responsibility for getting played.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

TyrantWD posted:

I think we need to move to America voting for the winner from the final two. More and more it seems like bitter juries are going to give the win to the weaker player based on spite, and it discourages future players from fully playing the game. No one takes responsibility for getting played.

The problem with that is scenarios like this year where Jess and Cody were actually very popular with viewers. Letting viewers vote is terrible because most people will never watch more than the CBS shows and the a significant portion of the narratives shown there are incredibly dishonest due to heavy editing and omission. Also consider that due to this, viewers can be just as bitter as the jury. To see who would have won with a viewer vote, look to the winner of AFP.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

ToastyPotato posted:

The problem with that is scenarios like this year where Jess and Cody were actually very popular with viewers. Letting viewers vote is terrible because most people will never watch more than the CBS shows and the a significant portion of the narratives shown there are incredibly dishonest due to heavy editing and omission. Also consider that due to this, viewers can be just as bitter as the jury. To see who would have won with a viewer vote, look to the winner of AFP.

We need some thing other than what we have now, because if Paul gets to the final two and loses a jury vote you are sending a message to all future Big Brother contestants that once you make it as far as jury, you need to lay low and and pray that you get dragged to end by a better player, because if anyone in the jury finds out that you were successfully playing Big Brother you are going to lose.

ShakeZula
Jun 17, 2003

Nobody move and nobody gets hurt.

I know that the jury footage is always edited to make it seem like everybody has a chance to win the vote, but based on what some of them said I think Paul might really have a chance at winning against either Josh or Christmas.

Cody will vote for Paul because ALPHA and because he has no respect for Josh or Christmas
Matt and Raven will vote for Paul because they've convinced themselves they were his main alliance, and they just plain like Paul more than the other two
Kevin seems to have no ill will and will happily vote for Paul, his #1 guy

Those I think are the locks, and he only needs to pull one more to win

Josh or Christmas will likely vote for whichever of the two makes it, though Christmas could vote Paul
Jason seems super bitter and will vote against Paul out of spite
Mark is the same, though I wonder if he could bring himself to vote for Josh if it came down to it
Elena, who knows
Alex strikes me as the type who might vote for Paul as a show of game respect, doesn't really seem like she'll vote bitter

Basically I think Paul has a 4-vote floor, and picking up one or two of the others is extremely doable, especially against Josh (personally made life hell for Mark, seen as a puppet by those more aware of Paul's machinations) and Christmas (doesn't really have many accomplishments to list besides comps that were thrown to her, same puppet perception problem as Josh)

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

TyrantWD posted:

We need some thing other than what we have now, because if Paul gets to the final two and loses a jury vote you are sending a message to all future Big Brother contestants that once you make it as far as jury, you need to lay low and and pray that you get dragged to end by a better player, because if anyone in the jury finds out that you were successfully playing Big Brother you are going to lose.

Nah, bitter juries are nothing new and both BB and Survivor has had to deal with them for well over a decade. The message to contestants is "learn to manage the jury". Which means actually getting to know the people you are playing with and not expecting to brow beat them into submission. Being ruthless will impress some people but not others, and it is up to a good player to determine which strategies are more helpful or harmful to their game in the end. By distilling it down to pure gameplay, you run the risk of juries ignoring some types of gameplay over others. Then you run the risk of essentially assigning a point system to comp wins, and figuring out a metric for social gaming, which seems pretty impossible, tbh, since who gets to decide when a social game move was what it was? Jury members refuse to admit they've been played so would the social moves count? How is that counted then? It will never really be better than what they have. That said, it could be improved by letting the completed jury have more time to debate and question the finalists, but that is unlikely to happen.

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


TyrantWD posted:

We need some thing other than what we have now, because if Paul gets to the final two and loses a jury vote you are sending a message to all future Big Brother contestants that once you make it as far as jury, you need to lay low and and pray that you get dragged to end by a better player, because if anyone in the jury finds out that you were successfully playing Big Brother you are going to lose.

Ian already won with that kind of jury, but he was a much more popular "fan character" than Josh (though Dan wasn't hated on a Paul level iirc). Derrick was the "mastermind" and he won, Vanessa had it locked up if she made it to F2.

Paul is pumping these people out of the house while showing very little empathy and trying to snow them in his goodbye messages when he knows they'll all talk to each other. You can have a tattooed trust fund manlet hector you for seven weeks and tell you who you can and can't talk to, but when the game's over and he's still trying to tell you things you know aren't true? I don't know, people have pride.

Let's be real, the BB game is kind of played out. I still think he'll win, but if he doesn't the winner will be another member of a "house" alliance who was on top from very early in the game, made very few decisions, let people take the heat and wound up in the right spot. This is a fine way to play, it's probably what I would do if my temper never got to me. But it's not entertaining. It's the kind of poo poo Matt was probably trying to do. And really, if Raven didn't "finish in second place in every competition" in the early game, we could be down to Paul, Matt and Raven.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I will laugh every time someone calls for the Jury to be replaced with a fan vote. Whether its fans, Paul, Russell Hantz, or whoever. For all the talk of "bitter juries" (and they happen and this is shaping up to be one of them either way) all whining about it does is show "bitter losers."

If Paul loses it will be because he betrayed too many people and made the incomprehensible decision to lie to them when they were out of the game. I think he's still the favorite to win since the jury's likely to be just as bitter that Josh/Christmas outplayed them and/or were more trusted allies to Paul but if Paul loses it will be because he hosed up his game. Because as much as some people may not like Jury Management being part of the game it IS just as much as the curveball is part of baseball to the guy who can't hit it.

Social games are about the people you're playing with. Somehow Derrick pulled off what Paul is trying to pull off. Vanessa very nearly did. Dan his first time. Danielle would have if the jury had been sequestered. Will nearly did it twice. It can happen. If Paul loses two years in a row its because he's got no idea how to manage the Jury and doesn't get how promising the world to someone and then stabbing them in the back tends to make them mad.

Josh and Christmas are way more likely to get "screwed" and judged unfairly by this jury since most of them just won't give them credit for the fact that they're probably the two best players of the season besides Paul and that they spent the entire season strategizing, making moves, and digging themselves out of tight spots. Ironically both basically played the game Paul did last year right down to the public fights.

pospysyl posted:

Cody's redeeming characteristic is his utter contempt for the rest of the cast.

Yeah, I definitely find being a sore loser, a total malcontent, and dickbag to be a charming and relatable character trait. America's Favorite.

MrBuddyLee
Aug 24, 2004
IN DEBUT, I SPEW!!!
Josh and Christmas played great games, are likeable, and both deserve to win against Paul in F2. Josh is humble by nature, and Christmas can be humble when she puts her mind to it--she did some masterful jury massaging at times this season.

Paul, not so much. He deserves to be Hantzed in front of America again.

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Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

MrBuddyLee posted:

Josh and Christmas played great games, are likeable, and both deserve to win against Paul in F2. Josh is humble by nature, and Christmas can be humble when she puts her mind to it--she did some masterful jury massaging at times this season.

Paul, not so much. He deserves to be Hantzed in front of America again.
Now that's a hot take. Paul had alliances with everyone, and the reason he chose Josh and Christmas as his final three was because Christmas is crippled and everyone sees Josh as a big stupid baby, so he's Paul's F2 golden goose. Paul's loss to Nicole is definitely in his head and that's why he's set on Josh coming with him to the end.

As an aside, I do agree with you that Christmas at times did good social work with people and can speak well (not sure about humble)

STAC Goat posted:

If Paul loses it will be because he betrayed too many people and made the incomprehensible decision to lie to them when they were out of the game. I think he's still the favorite to win since the jury's likely to be just as bitter that Josh/Christmas outplayed them and/or were more trusted allies to Paul but if Paul loses it will be because he hosed up his game. Because as much as some people may not like Jury Management being part of the game it IS just as much as the curveball is part of baseball to the guy who can't hit it.
I agree with this bit 100%. I basically need to see Paul make that f2, so I can see him either win or lose based on his questionable jury management. I assume he'd win, especially against Josh. Remember that if Josh is sitting next to Paul at the end, it means despite Josh being "woke" to Paul, he'll have never acted against him. But Paul's jury management is so hilariously bad, and I can honestly see people walking into questioning planning to vote for Paul if he'll only admit his game, only to have him disrespectfully lie to their faces about having no knowledge that any of them were going out. That would be amazing to watch. The only recent juror Paul managed fairly well was Alex, and that was only because he was forced to talk out with her why he wasn't going to play the veto on her. Everyone else he thinks he can keep bs'ing even once they're out of the house and it's just so laughable.

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