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Pembroke Fuse
Dec 29, 2008

Grammarchist posted:

CBO preliminary analysis seems to be up.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53126

"All told, federal spending on Medicaid would be reduced by about $1 trillion over the 2017–2026 period under this legislation, and the program would cover millions fewer enrollees." Get hosed GOP.

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Mokelumne Trekka
Nov 22, 2015

Soon.

Not to be "that guy", but isn't it a bit early to say this is dead? I'll believe when the turtle fuckface calls the vote off.

The Maroon Hawk
May 10, 2008

I'll believe it's dead if and when we flip the House next year, and not a moment sooner.

Edit: And if we don't flip the house, lube your rear end in a top hat for what's coming next, because the GOP will likely have 4-5+ more seats in the Senate to play with.

Grammarchist
Jan 28, 2013

Yeah, really hoping Murkowski announces soon as well so I don't have to worry about McCain dying and being replaced with a yes man.

Mokelumne Trekka
Nov 22, 2015

Soon.

Grammarchist posted:

Yeah, really hoping Murkowski announces soon as well so I don't have to worry about McCain dying and being replaced with a yes man.

Yeah, dying under mysterious non brain cancer cirumstances ; )

Maybe that will happen later. My imagination for the oligarchy over the next decades includes paramilitaries storming the private estates of Senators and threatening their lives, poisonings, etc.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
It's dead Jim.

Old Kentucky Shark
May 25, 2012

If you think you're gonna get sympathy from the shark, well then, you won't.


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

It's dead Jim.

Everyone was making hay out of the bribes for Murkowski and Collins, but the fact that the revised bill also included last minute bribes for Ohio (Portman) and West Virginia (Capito) make it questionable how alive the bill ever actually was. If Lee, Cruz, Capito, and Portman were all soft nos at this late date, that puts the bill at a maximum of 44 pledged Yes votes, if not fewer.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
I want all the assholes who a week ago (and a month before that and a month before that) who were going "well this bill is as good as passed, no hope, kill yourselves" to come eat crow. Again.

DC Murderverse
Nov 10, 2016

"Tell that to Zod's snapped neck!"

Old Kentucky Shark posted:

The only thing that could have made this better is for Susan Collins to have held off releasing this for three hours so I could screenshot the BREAKING NEWS chyron in the Sander/Graham debate.

that didn't stop CNN from running

BREAKING NEWS
HEALTH CARE BILL IN JEOPADY, 3 GOP SENATORS OPPOSED

right at the top of the debate before introducing a very glum looking Graham and Cassidy, and a very smug looking Klobuchar and Sanders.

viral spiral
Sep 19, 2017

by R. Guyovich
Bernie had a great opening holy poo poo.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

viral spiral posted:

Bernie had a great opening holy poo poo.

how badly is he dunking on them? i'm watching the cowboys and cardinals flail about aimlessly

Jagged Jim
Sep 26, 2013

I... I can only look though the window...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/912487929783754755

:salt: :trumppop: :salt:

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Where can I watch the debate? The stream isn't working.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/912491688765149184

These guys suck.

viral spiral
Sep 19, 2017

by R. Guyovich

axeil posted:

how badly is he dunking on them? i'm watching the cowboys and cardinals flail about aimlessly

Bernie and Graham got into it pretty good. I thought Bernie and Cassidy were gonna get into a brawl.

Chortles
Dec 29, 2008
The New York Times has its own, more recent take on the donors-dry-up facing the GOP senators dated last Friday, after McCain's declared opposition:

quote:

WASHINGTON — As more than 40 subdued Republican senators lunched on Chick-fil-A at a closed-door session last week, Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado painted a dire picture for his colleagues. Campaign fund-raising was drying up, he said, because of widespread disappointment among donors over the inability of the Republican Senate to repeal the Affordable Care Act or do much of anything else.

Mr. Gardner is in charge of his party’s midterm re-election push, and he warned that donors of all stripes were refusing to contribute another penny until the struggling majority produced some concrete results.

quote:

Republicans say the fund-raising drop-off has been steep and across the board, from big donations to the small ones the party solicits online from the grass roots. They say the hostile views of both large and small donors are in unusual alignment and that the negative sentiment is crystallized in the fund-raising decline.

One party official noted that Senate Republicans had a lucrative March, raising $7 million — an off-year record for the organization. But in the aftermath of the failed health repeal effort before the August recess and other setbacks, the take dropped to $2 million in July and August — a poor showing for a majority party with a decided advantage on the midterm map.

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever
Rich fuckwads who have profited ridiculously from regressive Republican policies withholding money from Republicans because those Republicans have been unable to take health care away from poor people who continually have more and more of the fruits of their labour taken from them by said same fuckwads.

I honestly would like to vomit right now.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I want all the assholes who a week ago (and a month before that and a month before that) who were going "well this bill is as good as passed, no hope, kill yourselves" to come eat crow. Again.

They didn't last time, they won't this time.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

no hope, kill yourselves"

What is with you and this line?

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

If you're right wing attacking a position from the left isn't a fantastic tactic when your opponent is actually left wing.

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
The debate felt primitive. Like, how is this contentious? How is this our culture?

Accretionist fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Sep 26, 2017

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

GreyjoyBastard posted:

They didn't last time, they won't this time.

I don't know, I wanna give some slack to people who are freaking out over their healthcare potentially being taken away, as long as that freak-out is channeled into activism. You can't seriously expect people depending on Medicaid to live to have a finger on the pulse of the moderate Republicans in the Senate and Rand loving Paul.

Pembroke Fuse
Dec 29, 2008

Accretionist posted:

The debate felt primitive. Like, how is this contentious? How is this our culture?

Hundreds of years of poor education and American myth-making about individualism, exceptionalism, superiority of common-sense and predestination. Don't need to improve if you're the best around, nothing's ever going to bring me down... etc. America is fundamentally anti-intellectual.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!
Isn't allowing the importation of drugs and opening up more competition in tune with the supposed spirit of the Free Market and meritocracy?

I guess only if it benefits those in positions of power/wealth, which it wouldn't.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

From reading up on reconciliation today it appears fairly likely that Republicans can give it a shot again in 2018. Reconciliation instructions are done by committee: you instruct a particular committee to find a certain amount savings, and then lo and behold they produce them by writing the bill you always planned on. The key thing here is that the committee that does tax policy and that mostly does health care is the same committee, so the instructions that will be given can be used for tax cuts, repeal, or both. So they do have the option of trying both, failing, then taking out Obamacare repeal and passing just tax cuts.

They also apparently have the option of using the 2019 bill. They'd have to pass the 2018 bill first, so this would land right smack in the midterms as they try to pass another bill with, presumably, 20% public approval while they're campaigning for re-election. That sounds like a dumb idea.

So I would expect to see this fight continue in 2018, and I would expect that it derails tax cuts for a while but then faces some test vote, gets pulled out, and they continue with tax cuts. Maybe they'll try the 2019 bill but my guess is they will set it up but not actually try to pass it right before midterms and either hope to get a better Senate in 2019, or just go gently caress it and try to pass it in the lame duck.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Pembroke Fuse posted:

Hundreds of years of poor education and American myth-making about individualism, exceptionalism, superiority of common-sense and predestination. Don't need to improve if you're the best around, nothing's ever going to bring me down... etc. America is fundamentally anti-intellectual.

The media is also poo poo and refuses to challenge people in power for fear of losing access to them.

Part of me wonders if one big problem with "The Media" is also that half of the talking heads just aren't smart enough to realize they're being constantly lied to.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Xae posted:

The media is also poo poo and refuses to challenge people in power for fear of losing access to them.

Part of me wonders if one big problem with "The Media" is also that half of the talking heads just aren't smart enough to realize they're being constantly lied to.

they know they're being lied to

but the thing is that the 20 year campaign against the "liberal media" has made it so they don't like to have opinions of their own and "he said, she said" is a great way to avoid taking a stand and not get tarred as the ~liberal media~

basically, republicans have been working the refs for a very long time and it's worked.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Xae posted:

Part of me wonders if one big problem with "The Media" is also that half of the talking heads just aren't smart enough to realize they're being constantly lied to.

The problem is that they make too much money and are no longer in touch with the common person.

The Phlegmatist
Nov 24, 2003
Consumer media is worthless because they've fired all their subject area experts and replaced them with idiots who churn out hot takes in order to get viewers. The actual good reporting on the GOP's attempt to repeal ACA, from people who know what they are talking about, is paywalled.

And that's how you get CNN screaming that GCHJ is definitely going to pass and your grandmother is going to DIE up until yesterday while the healthcare industry had largely moved on to speculation about repeal inclusion in the 2018 reconciliation bill. Or even 2019.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

WampaLord posted:

The problem is that they make too much money and are no longer in touch with the common person.

no, journalists are not generally making too much money are you loving insane

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

evilweasel posted:

no, journalists are not generally making too much money are you loving insane

By "The Media" I figured he was talking about mainly talking heads on cable, not investigative journalists doing real work.

BarbarianElephant
Feb 12, 2015
The fairy of forgiveness has removed your red text.

evilweasel posted:

but the thing is that the 20 year campaign against the "liberal media" has made it so they don't like to have opinions of their own and "he said, she said" is a great way to avoid taking a stand and not get tarred as the ~liberal media~

The Republicans tar even the most timid, "both sides" journalists as "the liberal media." They say such poo poo about NPR, which really is the most anodyne radio station - always trying to see the perspectives of both left and right.

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy
Iirc you can already import small amounts of medicine legally from countries like India (I get two ventolins a year for $10 plus $10 shipping), most people are squeamish about buying medicine from India or china because it must be fake/substandard quality.

Meanwhile Walmart sources its dollar generics from Indian giants like cipla and dr. reddy and slaps a familiar and friendly American name in it so people trust it.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

importing drugs is not about lower manufacturing costs abroad, it's about taking advantage of price controls in those countries

the problem is, it's trivial for companies to effectively block it by restricting the amount of that drug they send to the country

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/912699939213516804

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Using the fiscal 19 budget for healthcare seems uh...ambitious. Won't they potentially have lost the House and/or Senate at that point?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

axeil posted:

Using the fiscal 19 budget for healthcare seems uh...ambitious. Won't they potentially have lost the House and/or Senate at that point?

No, FY19 would be in the middle of 2018.

Also, there is no reasonable scenario where Democrats take the Senate in 2018.

Bueno Papi
May 10, 2009

evilweasel posted:

From reading up on reconciliation today it appears fairly likely that Republicans can give it a shot again in 2018. Reconciliation instructions are done by committee: you instruct a particular committee to find a certain amount savings, and then lo and behold they produce them by writing the bill you always planned on. The key thing here is that the committee that does tax policy and that mostly does health care is the same committee, so the instructions that will be given can be used for tax cuts, repeal, or both. So they do have the option of trying both, failing, then taking out Obamacare repeal and passing just tax cuts.

They also apparently have the option of using the 2019 bill. They'd have to pass the 2018 bill first, so this would land right smack in the midterms as they try to pass another bill with, presumably, 20% public approval while they're campaigning for re-election. That sounds like a dumb idea.

So I would expect to see this fight continue in 2018, and I would expect that it derails tax cuts for a while but then faces some test vote, gets pulled out, and they continue with tax cuts. Maybe they'll try the 2019 bill but my guess is they will set it up but not actually try to pass it right before midterms and either hope to get a better Senate in 2019, or just go gently caress it and try to pass it in the lame duck.


Brings up an interesting idea, if you stand to lose your majorities, you can spoil the next congresses reconciliation in a lame duck session before they take their seats. Doesn't even have to do anything, just some random committee finds a dollar savings.

Wrapping an ACA repeal into their tax cuts is just evil enough for Republicans to love it but I can see it spoiling the usual handful of Republican senator's votes. I can only assume it will be another BCRA situation. Ryan just passes something or anything in the House. McConnell jettisons all the language and gets a regressive supergroup together to find better ways to kill poor people through tax policy.

BlueberryCanary
Mar 18, 2016

axeil posted:

Using the fiscal 19 budget for healthcare seems uh...ambitious. Won't they potentially have lost the House and/or Senate at that point?

Actually that's probably part of the strategy. Pushing terrible and unpopular legislation is so much easier when your party knows it won't pass and everyone just wants the optics of fulfilling electoral promises.

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axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

No, FY19 would be in the middle of 2018.

Also, there is no reasonable scenario where Democrats take the Senate in 2018.

That's even stupider. What sane person thinks trying to pass a bill with ~20% approval right before elections is a good idea?

Re: the Senate I am holding out hope for taking out Dirty Dean Heller + Jeff Flake + Lamar Alexander/Ted Cruz/Roy Moore.

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