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Personally, my favorite part of the whole thing is that I was watching the current version of Let's Make a Deal a few months ago, and apparently they no longer offer the opportunity to switch doors, probably because the answer to the problem is now so widely known (if, perhaps, not always understood) among people who are into that sort of thing.
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Oct 3, 2017 02:24
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NGDBSS posted:The debate isn't about the Monty Hall problem per se. As presented it has one valid answer that's already been explained above. Rather, the debate is about how tweaking various parameters should change things if at all, such as whether the host deliberately opens an unchosen door with a goat (which implies foreknowledge on their part) or instead accidentally trips and opens such a door (which does not necessarily imply foreknowledge). I was reading the Wikipedia article on this. So knowing that the host always opens a wrong door versus knowing that the host opens a random door that just happened to be a wrong one changes the probability, even though the two outcomes are indistinguishable. That's also interesting and probably even better for illustrating how this stuff is thematically relevant to the VN.
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Oct 3, 2017 02:38
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Myriad Truths posted:So knowing that the host always opens a wrong door versus knowing that the host opens a random door that just happened to be a wrong one changes the probability, even though the two outcomes are indistinguishable. Well, in fairness, the two cases aren't really indistinguishable in aggregate (which is the only way probability is really meaningful, anyway), because if the host is really choosing randomly, then sometimes he'll open the door with the prize behind it, and everyone will look very silly.
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Oct 3, 2017 03:56
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Confused Llama posted:Personally, my favorite part of the whole thing is that I was watching the current version of Let's Make a Deal a few months ago, and apparently they no longer offer the opportunity to switch doors, probably because the answer to the problem is now so widely known (if, perhaps, not always understood) among people who are into that sort of thing. Yeah, now instead it's the Deal or No Deal style of "you could ride your choice to the end or we could give you a guaranteed (but much less than the potential payout) cash prize". Which, in thread relevancy, is what Battler is offering. You could know the truth, or you could accept his (obviously faked) explanation that Everyone Was Having A Grand Old Time And Was Happy until, assumedly, everything blows up anyway.
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Oct 3, 2017 04:32
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NGDBSS posted:The debate isn't about the Monty Hall problem per se. As presented it has one valid answer that's already been explained above. Rather, the debate is about how tweaking various parameters should change things if at all, such as whether the host deliberately opens an unchosen door with a goat (which implies foreknowledge on their part) or instead accidentally trips and opens such a door (which does not necessarily imply foreknowledge).
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Oct 3, 2017 05:32
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The real issue is that Ange is conflating two different probabilities: "the probability I chose the piece of cake with the almond" and "the probability the piece of cake I have contains the almond". The difference is subtle but important in one major way. As more people check their pieces and come up empty the odds of the latter increase but the odds of the former do not. And, of course, this scenario has a game master who can alter reality so long as the truth is not known. It is certainly within Battler's power to move the almond to whichever piece Ange chooses.
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Oct 3, 2017 05:48
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ZiegeDame posted:Never forget that EP 3 is Ange's head-canon. It's looking very important to the current episode. Wasn't episode 3 one of the stories in a bottle?
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Oct 3, 2017 07:40
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EagerSleeper posted:Wasn't episode 3 one of the stories in a bottle? No, only 1 and 2 were found. That we know of, at least.
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Oct 3, 2017 08:04
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1 and 2 were Bottle stories, and 6 was an unpublished story given to Ange by Tohya... was 4 a bottle message as well? I want to say yes, but there was so much mixed in there of Ange reading the diary and going on their journey that I'm mistaking Ange's involvement for knowledge of that story. But I seem to remember there was one more account found somewhere, another bottle or something... did I make that up? That would make 4, 5, 3, and 7 the odd ones out: not connected to the future in any way... but I do like the idea of 3 being the version that Ange "wrote" herself, so to speak.
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Oct 3, 2017 14:05
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1 and 2 were bottle stories, 3-6 were written by Hachijo.
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Oct 3, 2017 14:10
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There are three versions of the story left. One of them contains the truth. The other two contain Goat-kun.
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Oct 3, 2017 14:23
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Episode 3 was originally going to be a third message bottle, "Land of the Golden Witch", but R07 decided to make an easier to understand forgery after everyone was completely baffled by Turn. As I understand it most of the elements from it ended up being shuffled into other episodes (eg it was supposed to have an Erika-like character and Battler as a potential suspect). Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Oct 3, 2017 |
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Oct 3, 2017 18:17
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 BGM: Stuffed Toy  If I get a lot, I'm supposed to get a wonderful prize from Grandfather. Okay, here I go.  "Who should I start with?" "I don't think it matters. Start with whomever you like." "I'd better think up a killer puzzle while I have the chance." "Maria, didn't you have a quiz book in your bag?" "Uu-! I do! Kihihihihihi, I'm gonna bully Ange with a mean one...!"Maria onee-chan laughed with an evil smile. Looks like everyone's going to try and bully me. I'm sure they'll think up some really hard questions.  "Don't worry, I'll lend a hand." "Really...?" "Of course. After all, I'm the princess's attendant. So, let's give it our all together and get a huge pile of medals." "Okay...!" "Come now, Ange-sama. Start wherever you want. I, Gohda, am ready to challenge you whenever you please." "Whoa, not so fast. The honor of the first audience with the princess belongs to me. Ange, begin with my challenge...!" "O, okay!"I suddenly got tense, and my stomach began to feel tight. Then, Aunt Eva gently held my hand.  "It'll be alright. Let's do this together!" "O, okay!"  "Christmas...?"Even though it was October, he suddenly started talking about Christmas. Is he going to ask what day Christmas is? I know that. It's December 25th. "On Christmas Day, a woman looked up at the night sky and spoke. 'Eventually, the night will end, and morning will come. Wouldn't it be wonderful if, after the sun sinks and it becomes night once more, it could be Christmas again?' And then, the man spoke. 'Okay, I'll make your dream come true for you.' Is such a thing possible...?" "The day after Christmas is the 26th, a normal day. That's impossible." "...Still Christmas, even after the sun rises... Oh, I've got it." "Huh? How?! How can the day after Christmas be Christmas again?!" "Wahhahahahaha. Think about it for yourself, Ange." And here it is! The gimmick of this section. I hope your little grey cells are ready for a little quiz tournament! We're starting with an easy one here, but things are going to get harder as we go. I'll give this hint to you for free: Knowledge of Japanese is NOT required for any of these puzzles. They have been thoroughly localized by the good folks at Witch Hunt for your enjoyment. Please keep track of your score as you advance through the quiz questions. You'll need it at the end. You only get the medal if you get the question right on your first try. It's Possible It's Impossible Quinn2win fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Feb 7, 2018 |
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Oct 4, 2017 13:23
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Happy Umineko Day, everyone! To celebrate, we're kicking off the big interactive portion of EP8. Expect daily updates for a while, but also much shorter ones than you're used to. If you're waiting for the plot gears to start moving again, it'll be a while, but this won't just be a raw question list, either.
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Oct 4, 2017 13:27
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ProfessorProf posted:
Ok ill go with A lookw fucked around with this message at 14:31 on Oct 4, 2017 |
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Oct 4, 2017 13:36
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...This isn't one of those weird puzzles that deals with the esoteric nature of dates and "keeping Christmas in your heart," is it? The answer's not going to be something like "every day you think is Christmas is Christmas because we don't have an actual calendar to say otherwise," right? Is there a physical component to this, such as position? Because, if they were to hop a jumbo jet and fly east, then yes, Christmas would come tomorrow... but of course, something tells me the answer is not that complicated. But that such an answer can be reached at all is an answer in itself, so yeah- A: It's possible.
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Oct 4, 2017 14:06
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Boring answer: It wouldn't be much of a first brain teaser if the ordinary regular answer was correct, so I guess A. It's Possible on no basis!
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Oct 4, 2017 14:07
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I read the episode 8 manga, not the VN, so the puzzles are all new to me  And the answer is A, I think. The riddle says that it's Christmas Day, but that daytime hasn't started yet ("the morning will come.") So I'm guessing that the man with her is going to make it "Christmas once again" on Christmas Day Eve.
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Oct 4, 2017 14:08
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Happy October 4th everyone  I honestly have never played the EP8 VN and I've refrained to all this time just so I can participate in this. resurgam40 posted:Because, if they were to hop a jumbo jet and fly east, then yes, Christmas would come tomorrow... but of course, something tells me the answer is not that complicated. This is basically a Layton quiz so that's not complicated at all. A, this is definitely the answer.
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Oct 4, 2017 14:20
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Is this some international date line fuckery? Unfortunately I'm a bit too dimwitted and hungover to take the time to work it out. Though I've already shared my feelings on the ep so far, I have to say that scenes of bonding between female characters are real soft spots for me. Friendships and mentorships and other close connections are just so 
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Oct 4, 2017 14:22
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Voting A because of the answers already provided.
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Oct 4, 2017 14:52
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Ooh, this is going to be interesting. Yeah, A is clearly the answer here.
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Oct 4, 2017 14:55
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I mean, the setup makes it obvious that it's A. I'd pick the airplane one, although if the woman and man are talking pre-dawn that isn't even necessary.
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Oct 4, 2017 15:04
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japan is super ahead in time so out of all the countries this question can be asked, it's probably japan. A because timezones
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Oct 4, 2017 15:35
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A!! Same on the plane theory.
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Oct 4, 2017 15:43
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it's also possible because magic exists and that includes time travel.
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Oct 4, 2017 15:45
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A It's actually really simple and doesn't require anyone to move an inch. It's 6 AM on Christmas morning. The sun has not risen. At 8 AM the sun rises, then again at 8 PM the sun sets. It is now 9 PM and it is night once again, but it's still Christmas for 3 more hours. Technically it would be more accurate to say that it is Christmas 'still' rather than 'again' but whatever. It was Christmas before the sun rose, and it's Christmas after the sun set. Two different Christmas nights. If the man claims he can do this a third time, he's a witch and should not be trusted.
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Oct 4, 2017 16:04
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ZiegeDame posted:A
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Oct 4, 2017 16:57
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Voting A because you can fly around the world in a really fast jet and make it to 2 Christmas at once! Santa won't bring you gifts twice though, so it's not worth it.
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Oct 4, 2017 17:02
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RedMagus posted:Voting A because you can fly around the world in a really fast jet and make it to 2 Christmas at once! Santa won't bring you gifts twice though, so it's not worth it. If you fly fast enough can you escape Christmas entirely?
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Oct 4, 2017 17:08
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ZiegeDame posted:A Yeah, this is what I meant about the conversation being pre-dawn. I mean, the thread has come up with multiple ways that it's possible, so at least the answer to the question the game asked is obvious.
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Oct 4, 2017 17:24
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I'd say A because while 'Christmas Day' is one day, 'Christmas' is a (liturgical) season. Twelve days long, of course. Or they could go to Eastern Europe/Russia and celebrate Christmas 13 days later, when it turns December 25 on the Julian Calendar.
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Oct 4, 2017 17:32
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ZiegeDame posted:A That's not a very romantic answer 
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Oct 4, 2017 17:48
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Or it could be because there are twelve days of Christmas and it's not just a goofy song.
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Oct 4, 2017 17:50
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sometimes the most simple answer is the correct one: aka magic is real. but seriously, it's using a plane and time zones.
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Oct 4, 2017 17:54
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Rune Full Moon posted:And the answer is A, I think. The riddle says that it's Christmas Day, but that daytime hasn't started yet ("the morning will come.") So I'm guessing that the man with her is going to make it "Christmas once again" on Christmas Day Eve. Aw, frigging  - The possibility of the sun being up had not, in fact, occurred to me. Also good is Kangra's answer of the "liturgical" Christmas... Reiterating my answer.
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Oct 4, 2017 17:57
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ZiegeDame posted:A If only it could be Christmas again on Christmas Day at 9PM  It would be impossible for the man to make this dream come true, presumably he has no mastery over the flow of time. In this scenario the man is completely irrelevant. And most importantly like wcrp said this isn't romantic at all
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Oct 4, 2017 18:14
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 dont ignore the heart
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Oct 4, 2017 18:25
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See this is bullshit because as any retail store will tell you, Christmas goes from October 1st to December 25th.
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Oct 4, 2017 18:26
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he could also make it christmas again by hiding all the calendars and paying everyone to pretend it's still christmas. i can't believe the valentine tips is foreshadowing.
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Oct 4, 2017 18:28
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