CanPol Megathread: Big Changus

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yellowcar: Feb 14, 2010

fuckin lmao

https://twitter.com/markusoff/status/920159476878950400

# ? Oct 17, 2017 06:40

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# ? May 31, 2024 06:41

Seat Safety Switch: May 27, 2008; MY RELIGION IS THE SMALL BLOCK V8 AND COMMANDMENTS ONE THROUGH TEN ARE NEVER LIFT.; Pillbug

yellowcar posted:

fuckin lmao

https://twitter.com/markusoff/status/920159476878950400

That's gonna help Stage 2 of the negotiations.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 06:43

CRISPYBABY: Dec 15, 2007; by Reene

I mean there's no excuse for not having enough ballots, but I'm honestly kinda surprised people didn't hit the advance polls as much. Well, I guess I'm not surprised because I have no faith in large groups of people to do anything that's not last minute, but I mean ballots or not I'd rather stand in a 10 minute line last week than a hour long one today.

To me it's a little ironic that advanced voting is a 'thing'. There's nothing advance about it. No signing up. There's no difference in it versus showing up on election 'day'. You just show up and vote a couple of days early. Effectively, the Calgary election has been running for five days, we just only pretended the last day was the real one for some reason. I guess it's easier to market VOTE ON OCT 16 than VOTE ON ONE OF FIVE DAYS FROM OCT. 9-16.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 06:44

Seat Safety Switch: May 27, 2008; MY RELIGION IS THE SMALL BLOCK V8 AND COMMANDMENTS ONE THROUGH TEN ARE NEVER LIFT.; Pillbug

Bill Smith concedes.

My ward is probably re-electing a moron who doesn't understand the basics of his job, hates bike lanes and hosed up a public transit gimme, and newly electing a school board trustee from Kenney's cult.

1/3 is about as well as I ever seem to do in these things.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 06:58

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/920158614895042561

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:07

James Baud: May 24, 2015; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

James Baud fucked around with this message at 12:15 on Aug 26, 2018

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:11

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

quote:

Mainstreet Research confident in poll numbers ahead of Calgary election

A polling company that is predicting a Naheed Nenshi loss in Calgary�s mayoral race is so confident in its numbers, it released a scorecard on Sunday to compare competing polls.

Mainstreet Research polls for Postmedia sayBill Smith has a 13 per cent lead over Nenshi with 52 per cent of the decided vote. That�s in sharp contrast to polls from Forum Research and LRT on the Green that find Nenshi enjoys a strong lead. Mainstreet said there�s a lot of bias among some political commentators.

�Certainly I�ve seen a lot of behaviour from political scientists that I would say is quite shocking in this election campaign, and some of it quite frankly is quite appalling. Especially when we see professors who are accusing Postmedia reporters of making up quotes. That, to me, is beyond the pale,� said spokesperson David Valentin.

Valetin points to heavy advance poll turnout, which he says signals voters are demanding change. He believes when the results roll in on Monday night, it will be payback time.

�We�re going to be going through the case study and singling people out and showing what exactly it is they said and did. And I think anyone who comments to the media should expect that their comments are going to receive scrutiny after the fact. I think that�s fair,� he said.

Mainstreet accurately predicted the Alberta�s NDP�s majority election win in 2015, and at the same time, the collapse of the PC party.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:13

MagicCube: May 25, 2004

James Baud posted:

Okay, granted municipal elections generally have 30-40% turnout tops, but umm...

"As of midnight, when his main rival, Bill Smith, conceded, Nenshi had 112,503 votes to Smith's 97,756."

Calgary has 1.25 million people as of the April 2017 provincial census. Isn't that giving up a bit prematurely?

Yeah, they should at least wait until all the children and teen votes come in. A 15000 vote difference in a low turnout election is fairly substantial and is probably not going to change very much for Smith.

As of this post it's at 139436 for Nenshi and 121527 for Smith.

MagicCube fucked around with this message at 07:34 on Oct 17, 2017

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:23

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

I found a better one:

rbell@postmedia.com posted:

Bill Smith still leads Nenshi.

It is not as big a lead as the last Postmedia/Mainstreet nosecount but it is still in double digits.

And there are not a lot of undecided votes left to fight over.

If you look at all voters counted, it's Smith by 11 points.

That's Smith 47%, Nenshi 36%, Chabot 6%, those on the fence 10%, all the other candidates add up to 2%.

If you just look at voters who've decided or who are leaning toward one candidate or the other, the count is Smith by 13 points.

Smith 52%, Nenshi 39%, Chabot 6% and the others altogether add up to 3%.

Mainstreet pollsters expect Smith to win the election on Monday and become Calgary's next mayor.

"What was once thought to be a sleepy election for Naheed Nenshi has turned into a nightmare," says Mainstreet's Quito Maggi.

Then you drill down into the numbers.

According to the poll, why does the single-biggest group of Nenshi supporters back the mayor?

His ability to represent Calgary outside Calgary.

In other words, they aren't voting for him because of anything he's actually done at city hall.

They support his out-of-town speechifying and gladhanding. They don't agree the biggest issue is taxes and stupid spending and a city hall needing fixing.

By the way, for all Nenshi's talk about the arena, only 9% of his people are voting for him because of his stance on that issue.

Some smart sorts figured the biggest group backing Smith were doing it because Smith equalled change and that's what they wanted.

They obviously want change but it's not change for change's sake.

They're putting an X next to Smith's name because of his promise to hold the line on taxes.

Tax hikes are a big beef. Nenshi has talked a lot but not near enough about taxes for many people's liking.

As for how Nenshi and Smith performed during this latest ballot battle, more folks don't approve of Nenshi's performance than do.

Then again, more folks don't like Nenshi than like him.

With Smith, it's the other way around. More approve of Smith's performance in these past weeks than disapprove, by a wide margin.

And Smith's election campaign was short on specifics and no rock and roll show when it came to excitement.

The attention turns to Nenshi, the man who once captivated the city.

He probably thought he could never trail Bill Smith. Who is Bill Smith? Is he as great a talker as Nenshi? Is he as cool?

No matter. As polls showed Nenshi's popularity tanking, he didn't listen to the numbers.

As the economy hurt, and with it the lives of more than a few in this city, Nenshi didn't adjust. He mocked concern about taxes.

He didn't seem bothered about how his tone was coming across to many Calgarians. They felt him arrogant. He didn't agree.

City hall is a bubble protected by a thick coating of taxpayer dollars, so thick Nenshi could not see how far the bubble was away from reality and the many Calgarians wanting to be heard.

Now, if the nosecounters are on the mark, Nenshi faces an Everest battle uphill.

He has to get his voters out big-time. He has to sway the undecided vote and get some Smith votes to go elsewhere.

Will there be more negative stories about Smith? Will Smith or somebody on his team go bozo and erupt?

On Thursday, Smith didn't step into any horse poop.

Speaking of horse poop, one cannot end this column without commenting on Coun. Ward Sutherland.

Sutherland was at a gabfest for candidates, talking about the rusty-looking, tall thingies near Canada Olympic Park and how a city panel didn't pick a local artist but instead went with "Johnny Jew from New York."

Sutherland insists he said "Johnny Choo" and was thinking of New York at the time and noted shoe designer Jimmy Choo came to mind.

Sutherland says he told a local rabbi no anti-Semitism was behind his remarks.

Coun. Diane Colley-Urquhart says Sutherland should suck it up and admit he's wrong.

'There's no way to sugarcoat an apology," she says.

"He should have unequivocally said he made a smart-rear end comment, retract it and say sorry."

Back at the mayor's race, pollster Quito Maggi says it's going to take a miracle for Nenshi to win.

Well, there was a time Nenshi walked on water.

Guess he could pull it off.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:24

CLAM DOWN: Feb 13, 2007

Raising a glass to Jim Lahey tonight

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:30

James Baud: May 24, 2015; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

James Baud fucked around with this message at 12:15 on Aug 26, 2018

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:40

P.d0t: Dec 27, 2007; I released my finger from the trigger, and then it was over...

PittTheElder posted:

Yeah I think it's this. The rumor going around is that EC was trying to save money by going lean on printed ballots, but who knows how true that is.

You would think that after having over double the turnout of the previous election's advance polling, that they'd maybe print more ballots for the actual election day but :lol:

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:43

Arc Hammer: Mar 4, 2013; Got any deathsticks?

CLAM DOWN posted:

Raising a glass to Jim Lahey tonight

The liquor lost in the end.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:44

Aoi: Sep 12, 2017; Perpetually a Pain.

yellowcar posted:

fuckin lmao

https://twitter.com/markusoff/status/920159476878950400

lol, we were just discussing here (in my household), not an hour ago, how "arrogant" is code for "uppity" when it comes to our dear mayor (who I voted for, today)

# ? Oct 17, 2017 07:50

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

I hope those main street polls got people to leave the house and go vote Nenshi.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 08:27

Aoi: Sep 12, 2017; Perpetually a Pain.

CLAM DOWN posted:

Raising a glass to Jim Lahey tonight

...poo poo.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 09:01

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

# ? Oct 17, 2017 10:10

smoke sumthin bitch: Dec 14, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Arivia posted:

good news Quebec is continuing its efforts to become even more of a racist hellhole http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bill-62-stephanie-vallee-muslim-niqab-1.4356263

I tried to warn yall that any law limitting free speech in any form was designed to gently caress over minorities and raise racial tensions. On one hand the government is banning muslim from receiving healthcare and riding the bus and on the other hand you can get jail time if you speak out against refugees and immigration. The ethno nationalists end up thinking its an islamo-gauchiste plot and the other side claims quebec is a systematicaly racist hellhole so everybody hates each other while that incompetent clown Couillard keeps sacraficing our nation at the altar of corporate welfare and austerity.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 12:42

Wistful of Dollars: Aug 25, 2009

smoke sumthin bitch posted:

I tried to warn yall that any law limitting free speech in any form was designed to gently caress over minorities and raise racial tensions. On one hand the government is banning muslim from receiving healthcare and riding the bus and on the other hand you can get jail time if you speak out against refugees and immigration. The ethno nationalists end up thinking its an islamo-gauchiste plot and the other side claims quebec is a systematicaly racist hellhole so everybody hates each other while that incompetent clown Couillard keeps sacraficing our nation at the altar of corporate welfare and austerity.

Shoo shoo, away w' ye.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 12:50

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

If not for vote splitting we could've finally punted Druh Farrell. What a loving shame...

# ? Oct 17, 2017 13:53

Arivia: Mar 17, 2011

PT6A posted:

If not for vote splitting we could've finally punted Druh Farrell. What a loving shame...

Yeah that name sounds really familiar. Why does it stick out?

# ? Oct 17, 2017 13:56

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Arivia posted:

Yeah that name sounds really familiar. Why does it stick out?

If Evan Woolley is basically everything that's good about Nenshi while avoiding most of the bad, Druh is the exact opposite.

And whoever was arguing Nenshi's not arrogant? That's insane. It's part of his schtick, and people eat it up as long as he's on their side, just like right-wingers did with Klein. It's not racist to point that out -- if anything, it's one of the things that has led to his success (while at the same time being very polarising).

PT6A fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Oct 17, 2017

# ? Oct 17, 2017 14:01

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Strategic voting is dumb. It's like hanging a sign on your forehead that says "I'm easily manipulated"

e: This poll was released Friday I believe. 27 point swing in 4 days! lol

Reince Penis fucked around with this message at 14:38 on Oct 17, 2017

# ? Oct 17, 2017 14:16

PittTheElder: Feb 13, 2012; Yes, it's like a lava lamp.

Every single incumbent was reelected.

Is it time to bitch at the media for how unabashedly awful their coverage of this whole election was? CTV cut away to the big bang theory ffs.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 15:54

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

PittTheElder posted:

Every single incumbent was reelected.

Is it time to bitch at the media for how unabashedly awful their coverage of this whole election was? CTV cut away to the big bang theory ffs.

Yeah, such a loss, that they didn't have a bunch of moron talking heads on TV between the polls closing and meaningful results coming in.

I think this election shows that polling is irretrievably hosed at this point for some reason. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say that all the polls which showed Smith leading really helped Nenshi, because they motivated people like me who may have chosen not to vote, or spoiled the ballot, or voted for a fringe candidate, to vote Nenshi in order to keep Smith the gently caress away from city hall.

While I think there's still a lot of dissatisfaction with city hall throughout the city, at least this election showed that Calgarians aren't dumb enough to vote for change simply for the sake of change. If someone runs against Nenshi next time, and actually lays out coherent and well-supported policy proposals, Nenshi could be in trouble. One of the main problems with Smith is that he was too friendly with everyone who didn't like Nenshi, and while I would've loved to send Nenshi packing, there isn't a chance in loving hell I'd vote to replace him with anyone endorsed by the goddamn Rebel.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 16:10

flakeloaf: Feb 26, 2003; Still better than android clock

What was the voter turnout, something like 35%?

CLAM DOWN posted:

Raising a glass to Jim Lahey tonight

He has hosed his last off. I had no idea he'd done so many public appearances of the "holy poo poo dude John Dunsworth just popped up out of nowhere, played darts and shot the poo poo with us for like an hour" variety.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 16:12

flakeloaf: Feb 26, 2003; Still better than android clock

PT6A posted:

Yeah, such a loss, that they didn't have a bunch of moron talking heads on TV between the polls closing and meaningful results coming in.

Truly the worst part of every election. Just run a ticker over the bottom quarter of the screen, I don't need some plug telling me what I think of Jim Hogdick's stunning 11-vote upset in the 400-person riding of Cow Horn and West Gas Station.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 16:14

PittTheElder: Feb 13, 2012; Yes, it's like a lava lamp.

flakeloaf posted:

What was the voter turnout, something like 35%?

Can't find an official source, but I'm hearing 58%

# ? Oct 17, 2017 16:18

Stickarts: Dec 21, 2003; literally

flakeloaf posted:

Truly the worst part of every election. Just run a ticker over the bottom quarter of the screen, I don't need some plug telling me what I think of Jim Hogdick's stunning 11-vote upset in the 400-person riding of Cow Horn and West Gas Station.

How dare you. There are a lot of good people in West Gas Station.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 16:34

CRISPYBABY: Dec 15, 2007; by Reene

James Baud posted:

I figured with 1.25m people and Calgary's young population you can still count around a million eligible voters. And if there was a remote belief that it was actually close (ie, contradictory polls), that turnout might've gone higher than the minimum. However, you know Smith was poring over returns by ward/neighbourhood for a lot longer before conceding than the thirty seconds I spent looking at the results and checking the population.

(That said, I do always forget to back out X% of adult population in urban areas as non-citizens.)

PittTheElder posted:

Can't find an official source, but I'm hearing 58%

Yeah. The number I'm reading is that the total electorate is about 670,000 people with about 390,000 voting. Which sounds small to me but I don't really know how eligibility works and also forget children exist sometimes.

Anyways, Nenshi is one of the few politicians in existence who doesn't make me puke in my mouth when I think about him, so here's to another few years.

CRISPYBABY fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Oct 17, 2017

# ? Oct 17, 2017 16:49

Arivia: Mar 17, 2011

Stickarts posted:

How dare you. There are a lot of good people in West Gas Station.

East Gas Station though, *ptooie*

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:23

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Not to be forgotten: the moron who said "Johnny Jew" got re-elected, because although we occasionally get something right, Calgarians are still dumb as all gently caress most of the time.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:24

Gorau: Apr 28, 2008

I blame Tuscany.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:25

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Also, Sean Chu, who, based on some of his statements and social media postings, may in fact be functionally illiterate and/or suffering from severe brain damage.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:27

CRISPYBABY: Dec 15, 2007; by Reene

PT6A posted:

Not to be forgotten: the moron who said "Johnny Jew" got re-elected, because although we occasionally get something right, Calgarians are still dumb as all gently caress most of the time.

Every single incumbent got re-elected.

We uh, ain't great at this change thing. Or more likely the kind of inspirational politics required to make you want to vote for someone new rarely comes into play at the councillor level.

(I voted for Bliss Taylor, not Sutherland)

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:29

Wistful of Dollars: Aug 25, 2009

The only reason I'm happy Farrell was re-elected is that it's a nice big middle finger to the Terrignos.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:32

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Wistful of Dollars posted:

The only reason I'm happy Farrell was re-elected is that it's a nice big middle finger to the Terrignos.

On the other hand, given a choice between Farrell and a rabid badger possessed by Satan, I'd take the badger.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:34

Powershift: Nov 23, 2009

PT6A posted:

Not to be forgotten: the moron who said "Johnny Jew" got re-elected, because although we occasionally get something right, Calgarians are still dumb as all gently caress most of the time.

Well, people showed up in relatively high numbers and waited in long lines to re-elect a muslim mayor who refused to buy their hockey team a new arena.

That should at least suggest the good are starting to outnumber the bad. Look at Toronto. First rob ford, then a former Rogers exec and provincial PC leader John Tory. Still mostly bad people.

You can't win em all, but at least there are signs of progress.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:41

Yellow Ant: Feb 28, 2016

Arivia posted:

good news Quebec is continuing its efforts to become even more of a racist hellhole http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bill-62-stephanie-vallee-muslim-niqab-1.4356263

NZAmoeba posted:

Qu�bec wants to ban burkas on busses in the interest of government neutrality and social harmony

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montr...niqab-1.4356263

WTF Quebec?? "Lets live in harmony by banning some women from receiving or giving public services like riding the bus. Let's take away their freedom and give reasons to discriminate against them."

Glad to hear Nenshi was reelected!

Yellow Ant fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Oct 17, 2017

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:53

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# ? May 31, 2024 06:41

flakeloaf: Feb 26, 2003; Still better than android clock

"It's just about covering the face, it's not about what's covering the face"

This isn't about Jews, everyone has to pay higher prices for yarmulkes now.

# ? Oct 17, 2017 17:58

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