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Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Combat Pretzel posted:

Wait, so the markets go to poo poo over an anniversary?!

Basically, also it's a thursday and thursday's this year have been statistically terrible and selloffs

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Harry Potter on Ice
Nov 4, 2006


IF IM NOT BITCHING ABOUT HOW SHITTY MY LIFE IS, REPORT ME FOR MY ACCOUNT HAS BEEN HIJACKED
Ground floor of market crash!1

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel

Josh Lyman posted:

I feel like we've been in "correction any day now!" mode since the end of January. I know because I sold my SPXL on 1/31.

Then I bought back in on 2/9.

The end of January five years ago.....

fougera
Apr 5, 2009

Risky Bisquick posted:

Basically, also it's a thursday and thursday's this year have been statistically terrible and selloffs

Lol this is wrong. Seriously stop watching CNBC.

PBOC rumors, Spain and Apple iPhone builds. And it’s down a few points, so relax (for now). . Although the vix spike is interesting.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

Combat Pretzel posted:

I'm trying to understand some of those biotech (presumably) pump and dumps that happen lately. Take ONCS today for instance. It got propped up during pre-/post-market hours, and as soon the market's open, it tanks. I have no idea what that means, but as a beginner, it kind of feels like someone's trying to intentionally dupe clueless people. Funny nonetheless.

You can't understand small cap biotechs. They're all lottery tickets. Most of them have 1 or 2 products under development. Either it'll pan out and the company will be acquired by one of the big guys for billions or they'll fade away to nothing. If you want to speculate on them you need to be plugged in to back channels at the FDA, medical scientists, and insiders. If there's actually any news it's too late to trade.

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Things are on sale today :homebrew:

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

fougera posted:

Lol this is wrong. Seriously stop watching CNBC.

PBOC rumors, Spain and Apple iPhone builds. And it’s down a few points, so relax (for now). . Although the vix spike is interesting.

I don't watch TV :razz: anecdotal, but I've been doing a lot of value buys on thursdays during nasdaq selloffs.

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

You can't understand small cap biotechs. They're all lottery tickets. Most of them have 1 or 2 products under development. Either it'll pan out and the company will be acquired by one of the big guys for billions or they'll fade away to nothing. If you want to speculate on them you need to be plugged in to back channels at the FDA, medical scientists, and insiders. If there's actually any news it's too late to trade.

I've always assumed that this is how the members of Congress get rich.

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

orange sky posted:

Hey guys

Does this mean anything



Now do it with NGDP

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Risky Bisquick posted:

Netflix subs are enormous compared to any other player. Hulu is in two markets, prime isn’t great but that’s what you get when it’s basically a VAS for their retail side, what’s left is YouTube and what Apple? I’ll believe Disney when I see their MLBAM based streaming.

I dont own NFLX but I could see it continuing to dominate.

APPL as a competitor to NFLX in terms of content delivery. The point is that the market is only going to get more crowded coupled with content owners moving to other platforms (or buidling their own). Unless NFLX has some kind of Midas touch in terms of creating content that people will want consistently, forever.

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

DIS, which is probably the king of creating content, has a pe of 17.39 (according to FinViz). I'm not suggesting to short NFLX, especially in this easy money environment. I'm rather simply suggesting not to buy the stock.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Disney revenue is mostly milking their existing IP at theme parks and ESPN rolling in the cash, not exactly an apt comparison to netflix who simply creates content, licenses content, and serves video.

E

Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Oct 19, 2017

Man Musk
Jan 13, 2010

Combat Pretzel posted:

Wait, so the markets go to poo poo over an anniversary?!

It happened the day after the last time the City of London was closed over nasty weather ...

And now we’ve got Hurricane Ophelia heading for the Northeast Atlantic

👿😈

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
If you ever wanted to outsource your own trading to a computer...

quote:

The fund, which is being run in partnership with ETF Managers Group of Summit, New Jersey, will use AI and machine learning to scan more than 6,000 U.S. publicly traded companies each day to create a diversified fund, Amador said. The program will parse regulatory filings, more than a million news stories, company management profiles, sentiment gauges and financial models to establish a portfolio of 30 to 70 stocks.

Once the stocks are chosen, a team of human managers at ETF Managers Group will rebalance the portfolio based on the selections -- theoretically, every day if the computer proposes changes.

http://www.equbotetf.com/fund/#holdings


Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Accretionist posted:

If you ever wanted to outsource your own trading to a computer...


http://www.equbotetf.com/fund/#holdings



I don't understand, this seems pretty normal. :confused:

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
I saw a little hype about 'first AI ETF!' and 'it's using IBM's Watson!' and it looked cool

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Nice job diversifying your gains away, bitch!

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Looking forward to when the A.I. starts HFT on trash biotech stocks then throws itself off the roof of a tall building after losing everything

Combat Pretzel
Jun 23, 2004

No, seriously... what kurds?!
Would have figured the financial sector is already way ahead in using AI to varying degrees. If just for test runs.

Time
Aug 1, 2011

It Was All A Dream

Risky Bisquick posted:

Disney revenue is mostly milking their existing IP at theme parks and ESPN rolling in the cash, not exactly an apt comparison to netflix who simply creates content, licenses content, and serves video.

E

This is the exact opposite of true, lol. ESPN is hemorrhaging money and their existing IP has been taking in records — including new IP

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.

Syrinxx posted:

Looking forward to when the A.I. starts HFT on trash biotech stocks then throws itself off the roof of a tall building after losing everything discovering the terrible secret of space

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

Whistling rear end in a top hat posted:

This market is such a bubble, I'm continuously shocked that every day when I wake up and check the news that it hasn't burst yet.

Here's an example of one stupidly inflated stock that I've followed over the past few years:

This company was trading at $2-3 back in 2014 when they were getting ready to launch a version of acetaminophen-free hydrocodone. There was a big political backlash because of opiate addiction and they ended up selling it to another company shortly after launch because of it. Their only other drug in development after that was for the treatment of a rare form of epilepsy that only a handful of people in the world even have. What is this drug? Fenfluramine, AKA one half of notorious weight loss drug Fen-Phen which some of you might remember as being all over the news 20 years ago when the FDA banned it because pretty much everyone who took it had a heart attack.

This company, whose only drug in their pipeline is a drug that was already proven to kill people, has a market cap of 1.2 billion dollars and trades at 39 dollars a share. The most recent analyst rating target from 2 weeks ago says to buy it up to 51 dollars a share.

That's only one very specific example but I'm willing to bet there are hundreds, if not thousands of stocks on the major exchanges right now that have similarly stupid valuations based on extremely risky speculative products. Especially in tech and pharmaceuticals.

It also occurred to me the other day that even though there a bunch of legitimate companies that actually have real products and profits, the market and its perceived strength as a whole, comes from companies like Zogenix. How do people not see this and come to the conclusion that this is an insanely overvalued market that is way overdue for correction?

Good thing the whole loving Russell 2000 constitutes less than 10% of the entire loving market. But ok cool you found something you don't like, short it all.

Whistling Asshole
Nov 18, 2005

paternity suitor posted:

Good thing the whole loving Russell 2000 constitutes less than 10% of the entire loving market. But ok cool you found something you don't like, short it all.

:supaburn: I think you're missing my point. My point wasn't short the whole market because this one stock is really overvalued...it's that we're in the kind of ridiculous market where a company that's peddling an unsafe drug for a disease so rare it could never be profitable reaches the point where the market says it's worth $40 a share.

Not that Wikipedia is the paragon of market knowledge, but let's use this quote: "As of 31 March 2017, the stocks of the Russell 3000 Index have a weighted average market capitalization of almost $140 billion; the median market capitalization is nearly $1.7 billion." The stock I picked as an example is nearly at that median market cap value.

So if the Russell is used as an indicator of the health and value of the market as a whole, and a stock with a value close to the median of that index is way overvalued, it's not a stretch to say that the market as a whole is probably overvalued. Someone else pointed out that people in this thread, and real Wall Street types who get paid to research this poo poo for a living have been making the same call for years, so I'm not saying I've got some penetrating insight that no one else has, it's just bizarre to me that some catalyst hasn't happened yet to flip the market from bull to bear.

Ultimately my point is that *value* is really hosed up in this market, and to me that seems unhealthy and probably a bad omen overall that correction is coming soon. What do you think the valuation of my example company would be if they were private and trying to get an internal valuation? Definitely nowhere near $40 a share.

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

Accretionist posted:

I predicted 3 out of the last 0 recessions and we're definitely due for one soon.

Same :grin:

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

still got my 401k switched to Hella Conservative mode from like.... .... 2 years ago almost lmfao :zoro:

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.
401k and Roth 401k 100% in no load emerging market funds. See you in retirement bitches!!!!!

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

How about you give this thread an analysis of what you think the fair value of that company should be, then give us an analysis of what you think the broader market should be.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
CLF reports before open today. It’s the most fun stock because it moves 10% like every day on no news and the CEO is a fun Brazilian guy with an accent.

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel
GE throwing in the kitchen sink for this quarter. I think they are kicking themselves for completely divesting their capital finance division.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Anyone into NYSE:SE :staredog:

ticker was reused google :argh: anyways WEED rebound, MU calls to the moon baby, AMD on track for next week

Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 15:10 on Oct 20, 2017

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

CELG down 10%

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Bought 20 shares of the AI controlled ETF. All hail our robot overlords

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

Syrinxx posted:

Bought 20 shares of the AI controlled ETF. All hail our robot overlords

Whereas I'm just getting, "This security is currently blocked and unavailable for trading."

whyyy

Combat Pretzel
Jun 23, 2004

No, seriously... what kurds?!
Can't buy it either. Weird. Bunch of IPOs I was monitoring for fun like over a week ago still don't show at my broker either. I have to inquire.

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.
AIEQ sounds like something fun to throw a few thousand dollars in just so I can say Skynet is in control of some of my funds.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Literally investing in the meme economy

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
My other broker had no issue. Bought 100 shares @ 25.39. All hail our AI overlords!

And my hypothetical 'cobalt basket' from a couple months ago is way up. Still not entirely comfortable with penny stocks, though.

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Bought 2lbs of weed. Willing to sell, if the price is right, Natch

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mega dy
Dec 6, 2003

Solice Kirsk posted:

AIEQ sounds like something fun to throw a few thousand dollars in just so I can say Skynet is in control of some of my funds.
For what it's worth: I worked at IBM for a few years and have seen Watson pretty up-close and personal. The one thing it's pretty great at is pouring through an absolute shitload of unstructured data and parsing out some reasonable insights from it. It's pretty terrible at just about everything else. That would seemingly give it a good leg up at information processing that may be otherwise inaccessible to other cognitive systems, but I don't know if I trust it to actually make the correct conclusions based on the data that it parses.

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