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The Great Autismo! posted:this is almost a conversation that needs to happen personally. I'd be honored to host you in Shenyang, or if you wanna meet at a bar in your city, that'd be cool too. but this point is just so jarringly wrong I don't even really know where to start, and would love to talk to you about 8 years of experiences, of books I've read, and of people I've talked to about how just drastically incorrect this entire paragraph is. lemme know! I've been here for a few years longer than that, if you want to do the comparison thing. I primarily use Mandarin to communicate every day. In a professional, social and academic context I notice that people absolutely give a special status to white foreigners that they don't give to others. This is particularly noticeable in a university, in which a white, western student has a far, far easier time than, say, an East Asian looking student from Central Asia. But it's also immediately clear from the fact that plenty of companies hire random white people to show up for meetings and conventions just to project a sense of prestige. In fact, I don't see how you can arrive at a different conclusion if you've been here for any length of time. I do understand the feeling that foreigners are the victims of discrimination and racism. It's true, they are. But an ethnic group can absolutely occupy both spaces at the same time. Just because people can throw ethnic slurs without restriction and discriminate freely in choosing between possible tenants or employees doesn't mean that traditionally White European attitudes about race have no influence here at all. Rather, that influence is immediately apparent in any serious conversation you could have here about the subject. I live in Shanghai, by the way, if you ever show up here and want to have the conversation.
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Oct 22, 2017 16:32
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Arglebargle III posted:Hot take. here's a hot take: outside of western and northern europe there are no developed countries
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Oct 22, 2017 16:40
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Jeoh posted:here's a hot take: outside of western and northern europe there are no developed countries What about Canada?
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Oct 22, 2017 16:42
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In conclusion, according to Hegel, every coin has two sides, even racism.
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Oct 22, 2017 16:52
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whatever7 posted:What about Canada? Canada is just America.
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Oct 22, 2017 17:02
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whatever7 posted:I am saying the lives of Japanese people are nothing special and they shouldn't be the aspiration of the Chinese. Why is it always the middle class that's under attack in these narratives? Do people actually think that the deck is being stacked against American suburbanites and trendy urbanites, or the growing consumer class in China? Those are the people most loyal to CCP and "the 1%." Why would the shadowy alliance want to eliminate their base of support?
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Oct 22, 2017 17:34
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Mineaiki posted:Why is it always the middle class that's under attack in these narratives? Do people actually think that the deck is being stacked against American suburbanites and trendy urbanites, or the growing consumer class in China? Those are the people most loyal to CCP and "the 1%." Why would the shadowy alliance want to eliminate their base of support? Remember the US middle class is everybody from $1 a year to $1 billion dollars a year.
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Oct 22, 2017 17:41
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Ardennes posted:Btw, I wasn't a fan of the "China is going to conquer the world" narrative of the 2000s and I am not a fan of the China is "going to fall apart" narrative of the 2010s. There's a "China is going to fall apart" narrative of the 2010s? I have not seen a single serious person on the subject argue China is going to fall apart. The whole "Anyone who says China has problems that will hurt its future is saying China will collapse" thing is a strawman thrown out by internet nationalists.
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Oct 22, 2017 18:20
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Jeoh posted:here's a hot take: outside of western and northern europe there are no developed countries It's just Iceland to be honest. This is the best compromise because now whatever7 can say that China and the US are the same. Japan is obviously in some 3rd lower category, or at least morally lower somehow.
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Oct 22, 2017 18:21
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Fojar38 posted:There's a "China is going to fall apart" narrative of the 2010s? I have not seen a single serious person on the subject argue China is going to fall apart. The whole "Anyone who says China has problems that will hurt its future is saying China will collapse" thing is a strawman thrown out by internet nationalists. This is the basic narrative. quote:The stats are easy to cite: Total debt is now nearly 300% of Chinese gross domestic product. The China banking sector is about three times the size of its economy. Credit growth in China is now so large that the margin of error for estimates of its size is now into the trillions. Chinese corporate debt is currently about $18 trillion, or 170% of GDP. http://uk.businessinsider.com/chinese-debt-risk-to-financial-stability-2017-9 (btw businessinsider is complete trash but that is sort of the point). The issue is this (and other articles of similar quality) don't acknowledge is that corporate debt in China is between state/local institutions and a Lehman Brother's style systematic collapse is not possible in the same manner (ie a private fund comes completely belly up and causes domino effect) Also, that headline debt isn't as important as how that debt is organized and what is the composition of that debt. Just saying 300% of GDP isn't meaningful unless you start talking about how much of it is in default. However, it is still likely the Chinese central bank is going to have to buy up bad debts packaged by local governments, but the PBC has the firepower to do so. ----------------- Btw, during the Icelandic Credit crisis, Icelandic's "aggressive Viking-barbarian" culture was blamed for the catastrophe. I think the only truly Western region on the planet is Southern England, specifically West London, everything else is disgusting barbarity and/or Asiatic non-sense. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Oct 22, 2017 |
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Oct 22, 2017 18:35
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I hope for everyone's sake that the PRC still has the balls to just execute the bankers and seize the banks
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Oct 22, 2017 18:37
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That article doesn't say anything about a collapse though. It's biggest glaring error (China being the world's largest economy (and don't bring up that PPP nonsense)) notwithstanding, even if the CCP can roll over bad debt indefinitely it's still going to cause a dramatic slowdown in the long term as more and more junk builds up in the economy. Crashes get a bad rap but they are absolutely critical in purging waste from an economy. If you don't allow one your economy is eventually going to be almost nothing but waste.
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Oct 22, 2017 18:40
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Bubbles need to be deflated, but I don't think crashes are a necessary part of the system. Actually, before 2008, recessions were relatively mild in comparison. I do think Chinese growth will take a hit at some point because you can't just keep packing bad debts forever but China has the ability to spread the pain over a longer period of time and provide fiscal stimulus to make sure unemployment doesn't get out of control. A lot of the danger of the 2008 recession, was that a manageable financial crisis became a domino effect that could have been much better managed with fiscal stimulus and a more robust effort to keep people in their houses.
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Oct 22, 2017 18:45
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Ardennes posted:Bubbles need to be deflated, but I don't think crashes are a necessary part of the system. Actually, before 2008, recessions were relatively mild in comparison. In this circumstance, real growth is zero or negligible as most economic activity becomes stimulus, lending, and rolling over debt. One can make a convincing argument that China is already here. This is long-term stagnation coupled with a return to hard authoritarianism that I've always thought was the most likely path for China, and between Xi consolidating more and more power, Chinese society becoming more and more authoritarian, and economic growth that is highly reliant on lending and asset bubbles, I feel pretty vindicated about it at this point.
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Oct 22, 2017 18:50
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Fojar38 posted:In this circumstance, real growth is zero or negligible as most economic activity becomes stimulus, lending, and rolling over debt. One can make a convincing argument that China is already here. This is long-term stagnation coupled with a return to hard authoritarianism that I've always thought was the most likely path for China, and between Xi consolidating more and more power, Chinese society becoming more and more authoritarian, and economic growth that is highly reliant on lending and asset bubbles, I feel pretty vindicated about it at this point. As far as an economy relying on lending, stimulus and asset bubbles...uhhh thats capitalism man. Also, China still has a positive trade surplus and room for more infrastructure development, but economic growth isn't magic and China will have lower growth rates. And while Chinese culture is getting more nationalistic, in all honesty, it was always hard authoritarian and there hasn't been a major difference under Xi.
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Oct 22, 2017 18:54
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Japanese working hours aren't that much more than America's, even if you assume the official figures to be undercounted somewhat China's urban middle class lives decently well but rural areas are still shitholes, there are still hundreds of millions of people there and I'm not sure it will be easy to bring them or their regions to developed status Also I don't think the rural birthrate in China is much higher than the urban, maybe a bit but not still not above replacement I would guess
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Oct 22, 2017 18:56
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Ardennes posted:As far as an economy relying on lending, stimulus and asset bubbles...uhhh thats capitalism man. It is, but the reason those things translate to economic growth in a capitalist system is because it's assumed that these things (especially lending) serve to improve productivity, and if it doesn't then it's written down as bad debt and subtracted from GDP. If you have a country where due to, say, political motives, you never write down bad debt, a large portion of your GDP is going to straight up not be productive growth. Michael Pettis has a good writeup on it. http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/72997
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Oct 22, 2017 19:03
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icantfindaname posted:Japanese working hours aren't that much more than America's, even if you assume the official figures to be undercounted somewhat Rural birth rate is better because you couldn't punish farmers who give birth to 2nd son like you did in the cities. In the cities you could kick people off state owned companies, not assign apartment, not give school registration etc etc. Oh medical care was also a big thing. The best you could do in the village was use the trackers to push down their brick house as punishment.
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Oct 22, 2017 19:11
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icantfindaname posted:Japanese working hours aren't that much more than America's, even if you assume the official figures to be undercounted somewhat quote:The total fertility rate was 1.22 in 2000 and 1.18 in 2010, which marks a decrease of 0.04 https://iussp.org/sites/default/fil...upp-11.21_0.pdf Btw, for comparison sake, the fertility rate in 2016 was 1.6 due to the one-child policy being relaxed. It may be close to replacement levels at this point in rural areas.
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Oct 22, 2017 19:24
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Fojar38 posted:It is, but the reason those things translate to economic growth in a capitalist system is because it's assumed that these things (especially lending) serve to improve productivity, and if it doesn't then it's written down as bad debt and subtracted from GDP. If you have a country where due to, say, political motives, you never write down bad debt, a large portion of your GDP is going to straight up not be productive growth. Thats the thing, that article seems to need more information/data to prove the thesis. One thing to work, China would to very rarely write down debts and that bad debts/valueless projects have to make almost all of growth. I think it is fair to say Chinese data is inflated, but I am not convinced everything being built in China are "bridges to nowhere" especially since it is very clear most of the infrastructure is actively being used. If you want to say Chinese GDP is probably inflated, I don't doubt it, but the question is how much can you discount growth based on that assumption.
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Oct 22, 2017 19:43
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I'm a ghost fyi
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Oct 22, 2017 20:08
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Heithinn Grasida posted:I've been here for a few years longer than that, if you want to do the comparison thing. I primarily use Mandarin to communicate every day. In a professional, social and academic context I notice that people absolutely give a special status to white foreigners that they don't give to others. This is particularly noticeable in a university, in which a white, western student has a far, far easier time than, say, an East Asian looking student from Central Asia. But it's also immediately clear from the fact that plenty of companies hire random white people to show up for meetings and conventions just to project a sense of prestige. In fact, I don't see how you can arrive at a different conclusion if you've been here for any length of time. I was invited to be on a podcast that is recorded in Shanghai this past summer and I'm trying to get down there to do it, I'll let you know if I make it through I understand what you're saying but I actually think it's proving the exact opposite point. companies hire random white people to show up for meetings to show prestige but won't actually let any actual foreigners do the work. they want to make it look like they work with foreigners, but they don't. this is the companies trying to project a globalized image but when it comes to doing actual things, they won't let anyone other than locals do the work. at least in my experience. I also never said white European attitudes about race have no influence here at all, I was responding to "So foreigners, especially white foreigners, have a very real kind of soft power that is deeply rooted in racial issues, including white racism." maybe I'm completely misunderstanding what you mean about soft power and white racism, that or I clearly have not done living in china correctly The Great Autismo! fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Oct 22, 2017 |
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Oct 22, 2017 22:57
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anyway it's a good conversation to have in person because nuance and the internet and all that. I'll quote ya if I'm coming through in the next few months, hoping to be there in November. have a good one dude
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Oct 22, 2017 23:07
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"I may not have any legal rights, I don't get taken seriously at work, I'm treated like a curiosity or a zoo animal on the streets, but look at all the SOFT POWER I have!"
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Oct 23, 2017 08:21
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Darkest Auer posted:"I may not have any legal rights, I don't get taken seriously at work, I'm treated like a curiosity or a zoo animal on the streets, but look at all the SOFT POWER I have!" 'zis non-Han or women we talking about?
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Oct 23, 2017 08:30
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Fojar38 posted:In this circumstance, real growth is zero or negligible as most economic activity becomes stimulus, lending, and rolling over debt. One can make a convincing argument that China is already here. This is long-term stagnation coupled with a return to hard authoritarianism that I've always thought was the most likely path for China, and between Xi consolidating more and more power, Chinese society becoming more and more authoritarian, and economic growth that is highly reliant on lending and asset bubbles, I feel pretty vindicated about it at this point. Between one thing I made up, another thing I made up, and a number of other things I am obviously viewing through a very deliberate lens, I feel pretty vindicated at this point.
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Oct 23, 2017 10:27
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Guyovich, educate me—I thought Xi consolidating his power was a good thing?
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Oct 23, 2017 10:52
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Darkest Auer posted:"I may not have any legal rights, I don't get taken seriously at work, I'm treated like a curiosity or a zoo animal on the streets, but look at all the SOFT POWER I have!" The power to get yelled at by taxi drivers! The power to pay more for street food! The power...to be groped by strange men in the streets. Use it wisely.
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Oct 23, 2017 11:33
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Pirate Radar posted:Guyovich, educate me—I thought Xi consolidating his power was a good thing? we don't actually know if this is happening or not and will have a clearer picture after the central committee, politburo and standing committee are elected
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Oct 23, 2017 15:28
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"China’s Pursuit of Fugitive Businessman Guo Wengui Kicks Off Manhattan Caper Worthy of Spy Thriller" love this poo poo.
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Oct 23, 2017 17:29
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Jeoh posted:"China’s Pursuit of Fugitive Businessman Guo Wengui Kicks Off Manhattan Caper Worthy of Spy Thriller" I'm just waiting for the plot where they try to kill him by making him drink ice water.
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Oct 23, 2017 17:53
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:I'm just waiting for the plot where they try to kill him by making him drink ice water. That would take a long time for the serious and deadly health effects to kick in but be totally untraceable. But china always plays the long game unlike the impatient and culturally infant west.
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Oct 23, 2017 17:56
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Oct 23, 2017 18:11
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:I'm just waiting for the plot where they try to kill him by making him drink ice water. Nah they make you voluntarily by get to your family members.
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Oct 23, 2017 18:27
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sincx posted:Breaking news! People are saying (praying) that China will collapse for the 200th time this month, so all the valuable coastal provinces can become US client states like Japan and Taiwan. And white people get to keep their position of prestige as the colonial master in Asia while still bitching about reverse racism all day. oh dope, that works out great
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Oct 23, 2017 18:36
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unbutthurtable posted:oh dope, that works out great
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Oct 23, 2017 18:39
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Coastal china becoming at least as democratic as Japan and Taiwan along with their levels of corruption and quality of life would be a massive improvement for the people living there. If they could get some sweet military equipment deals from the west, even better. Sounds really lovely.
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Oct 23, 2017 18:50
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Ersatz posted:Yeah, I should dust off my redcoat and sabre in preparation for the glorious restoration of her Majesty's empire. I hope to see British Navy steamboats patrolling the Yangtze again in my lifetime
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Oct 23, 2017 19:34
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e:nvm
Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Oct 23, 2017 |
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Oct 23, 2017 21:28
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icantfindaname posted:I hope to see British Navy steamboats patrolling the Yangtze again in my lifetime "The Sand Pebbles" is worth a watch.
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Oct 23, 2017 21:43
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