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Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?

Gortarius posted:

I'm a big idiot so I'm going to ask what all this means?

Here's a fun fact about that:
Aside from September and October of this 2017, the other 8 top high anomalies are during El Niño events.

2017 now has the record high anomalies for September and October in the satellite record... but it isn't during an El Niño.

So, um, yeah... can't blame this year's record highs on natural variation.

Evil_Greven fucked around with this message at 04:51 on Nov 5, 2017

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WorldsStongestNerd
Apr 28, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
So I assume that during the next strong El Nino year the gulf coast is going to be wiped from the face of the earth.

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/11/el-nino-and-the-record-years-1998-and-2016/

quote:


Fig. 2 The two El Niño peaks in global temperature from Fig. 1, zoomed in and overlayed by shifting the 2016 peak back in time by 14 years and down by 0.4 °C. The darker red curve is the 2016 peak, as in Fig. 1.

The two peaks align very well. The first conclusion is that global temperature evolution over the last few years is very similar to that around 1998 – except the Earth is now 0.4 °C hotter. That’s 0.4 °C warming over 18 years, corresponding to 0.22 °C per decade – a bit more than expected from the long-term global warming trend since 1980, which is 0.17 °C per decade in the GISTEMP data. (So much for the “no warming since 1998” meme so popular with climate deniers.)

The second observation is that initially temperatures climbed down from the peak as fast as in 1998 – but then the cooling slowed down, and the last 12 months haven’t just been 0.4 °C warmer than in 98/99 but closer to 0.5 °C warmer. So it is clear that our planet is not cooling off as fast as after the 1998 El Niño peak. I wouldn’t over-interpret this – we’re looking at a really short interval here, so it is clearly no reason to diagnose a noteworthy acceleration of global warming. But there certainly is no sign of global warming slowing down. It will be interesting to watch how this continues over the next months; the ENSO forecast is for developing La Niña conditions again this coming fall/winter.

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
https://twitter.com/JacquelynGill/status/927255409726857216

https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/927626475020439554

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

This is not the end of the NSIDC charts (yet) so the hyperbole on the bottom comment isn't (yet) warranted. Soon though.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

This is not the end of the NSIDC charts (yet) so the hyperbole on the bottom comment isn't (yet) warranted. Soon though.

Yes, soon! :dance:

treerat
Oct 4, 2005
up here so high i start to shake up here so high the sky i scrape

Conspiratiorist posted:

We can just inject more chemicals into the soil to keep it productive until a long-term technological solution is found.

Right?

The technological solution requires understanding and curating ecosystems and going to the effort of conserving resources. Why bother with that while disposable water and fertilizer are cheap?

the old ceremony
Aug 1, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
i understand and curate ecosystems and will offer my services for a small price

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

It's questionable how crucial this particular satellite was

Like, I probably come down on the "probably shouldn't have scrapped the spare" side of the line, but it's a small thing not a big thing

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

GreyjoyBastard posted:

It's questionable how crucial this particular satellite was

Like, I probably come down on the "probably shouldn't have scrapped the spare" side of the line, but it's a small thing not a big thing

There is going to be a gap in our NSIDC records. That is a big thing. We will lose one of our few pieces of observation we have on this pathetically underobserved part of our planet.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

There is going to be a gap in our NSIDC records. That is a big thing. We will lose one of our few pieces of observation we have on this pathetically underobserved part of our planet.

I backpedal to: someone who knows a hell of a lot more about this poo poo than I do told me there is sufficient redundancy on this. Wrong?

SSJ_naruto_2003
Oct 12, 2012



I think even if there is redundancy it seems absurd to destroy a backup that is already completed and I assume paid for. Our government wastes so much money

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

SSJ_naruto_2003 posted:

I think even if there is redundancy it seems absurd to destroy a backup that is already completed and I assume paid for. Our government wastes so much money

Absolutely 100% agree as per my original post, just curious whether my mindless regurgitation of secondhand knowledge is fatally flawed :v:

the old ceremony
Aug 1, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
we must build cities for the animals

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I backpedal to: someone who knows a hell of a lot more about this poo poo than I do told me there is sufficient redundancy on this. Wrong?

NSIDC has 4 satellites F16 - F19. F17 has periodically malfunctioned and recovered. F19, the newest one, failed in 2016 and recently has been declared non-operational. These satellites have a 5yr expectancy. F16 is 13 years old; F18 is 8 years old.

We will not have any further NSIDC satellites before at least 2022. Failure of F16 and F18 before a replacement would cause a gap in the record that would have to be filled in by Japan's JAXA dataset. Given our weak observational coverage of the Arctic, having one data set to rely on is problematic. You can see this by looking for disparities in the running JAXA extent/area time series vs the NSIDC time series.

Losing F19 is really problematic because it was the newest one so it had the longest life expectancy from here. Sure would've been great if we put F20 in orbit instead of destroying it.

Notorious R.I.M. fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Nov 8, 2017

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless
What y'all heard about that mantle plume heating up the Antarctic

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

call to action posted:

What y'all heard about that mantle plume heating up the Antarctic

God is annoyed with how long the "Donald Trump" disaster is taking to destroy the world so is checking out everything else in the menu.

Ferdinand Bardamu
Apr 30, 2013

call to action posted:

What y'all heard about that mantle plume heating up the Antarctic

It isn't heating up the Antarctic

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless

That article literally says it is, they just don't know to what extent

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Yeah, it is heating the ice above it, but it very well may be a localized phenomena and it doesn't explain other melting occurring elsewhere.

Looking at the paper abstract, I think both articles are actually fairly misleading.

ChairMaster
Aug 22, 2009

by R. Guyovich
Reading the abstract, I think that it's a pretty irrelevant discovery as far as climate change and the future of the planet goes. The WAIS is probably gonna collapse before most of us die, but not because of this particular thing.

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

call to action posted:

That article literally says it is, they just don't know to what extent

The plume would have been there for around fifty million years, and the ice sheet would have formed atop it. It likely affected the way ice melted at the end of the last Ice Age. But it’s not really something to worry about. “It’s been there forever, it will remain there for a really long time,” said Seroussi. “We don’t have to worry about it. But at the same time, as the future brings more heat... the ice will probably be warmer in this area than in other places.”

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
I wonder what the carbon footprint of printing and shipping millions of Emoji Movie blu-rays was. How many months of life did that shave off our civilization?

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Rime posted:

I wonder what the carbon footprint of printing and shipping millions of Emoji Movie blu-rays was. How many months of life did that shave off our civilization?

hopefully all of them

death is near

inshallah

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Rime posted:

I wonder what the carbon footprint of printing and shipping millions of Emoji Movie blu-rays was. How many months of life did that shave off our civilization?

The answer, of course, is "practically nothing". About 0.0000001% (that's one one-millionth of a percent) of total annual emissions.

Dr. Furious
Jan 11, 2001
KELVIN
My bot don't know nuthin' 'bout no KELVIN

Thug Lessons posted:

The answer, of course, is "practically nothing". About 0.0000001% (that's one one-millionth of a percent) of total annual emissions.

But your vacation flight is killing the planet.

Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?
So global sea ice is dramatically worse, again - having fallen past -4 std deviation.

It's not as bad as last year, but I'm gonna have to say the fact that it hasn't been above -2 std deviation in over a year is a bad sign:

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Evil_Greven fucked around with this message at 01:21 on Nov 13, 2017

noyes
Nov 10, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
i don't want to live in a world without walruses :(

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
I don't think this one got posted, cool visualization.

https://twitter.com/anttilip/status/921809347658895361

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Dr. Furious posted:

But your vacation flight is killing the planet.

Well air travel makes up about 5% of global emissions, so you know, seven orders of magnitude higher.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
Is that total emissions or human emissions.

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Conspiratiorist posted:

Is that total emissions or human emissions.

I'm not sure what you're asking. I'm talking about antropogenic GHG emissions. There's a natural carbon cycle but left alone it stays in balance, whereas anthropogenic emissions raise concentrations of atmospheric GHGs which in turn causes climate change, ocean acidification, and so on.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Thug Lessons posted:

There's a natural carbon cycle but left alone it stays in balance

what?

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
I know what the carbon cycle is, but you're a moron if you think that's currently 'balanced' in any fashion absent anthropogenic emissions.

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Conspiratiorist posted:

I know what the carbon cycle is, but you're a moron if you think that's currently 'balanced' in any fashion absent anthropogenic emissions.

Again, I'm having a whole lot of trouble understanding what you mean. Can you put in some more detail? Over very long time scales, sure, it's not balanced, and GHG levels fluctuate. But the overwhelming bulk of the rise in atmospheric GHG levels right now is being driven by anthropogenic emissions, not natural ones.

noyes
Nov 10, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
what about retirees driving around in campervans / suvs towing caravans? how much does that contribute?

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...es-of-progress/

I'd have to quote the whole drat article, too much good stuff.

Tl;dr: We're fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Conspiratiorist posted:

you're a moron

Thug Lessons posted:

Again, I'm having a whole lot of trouble understanding what you mean.

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Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Rime posted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...es-of-progress/

I'd have to quote the whole drat article, too much good stuff.

Tl;dr: We're fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked.

yessss

:dance:

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