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farraday posted:https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/927940619049291776 YES TO BOTH
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Nov 7, 2017 18:19
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Carlosologist posted:whoa, Terry McAuliffe restored voting rights by hand?? what a boss Immigrants coming here and becoming citizens  In 2013 the turnout in fairfax was 46.8% so that should be your benchmark for what represents a strong turnout.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:20
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Voted in Arlington a few minutes ago. My polling place wasn't packed but there were about 12 people voting which is the norm for the lunchtime crowd. CNN was there filming b roll footage and decided to focus on me while I was casting my ballot...didn't expect that but hey, democracy! EDIT: Just had a Northam volunteer knock at my door and ask if we remembered to vote. Said yes, and then asked if we voted for Northam. YBF, you guys are not loving around with GOTV this year, good on you guys. Handsome Ralph fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Nov 7, 2017 |
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Nov 7, 2017 18:20
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It is pouring in Northern Virginia right now. Hope it doesn't impact things too much!
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Nov 7, 2017 18:27
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axeil posted:I feel drinking with T-Mac would be a really fun time given the infamous "Hillary rum" interview. He shows up to give speeches at beer festivals (and just regular festivals) all the time, and he's usually two sheets to the wind and clearly having a great time. Can confirm.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:30
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Just finished my first three hour poll greeting shift. Voting numbers are up big in my precinct in Arlington. Pretty much everyone who came in wanted the Democratic sample ballot, and even those that didn't told me they were voting Dem. Taking a lunch break and headed back out an in hour to greet more voters! Edit: axeil posted:It is pouring in Northern Virginia right now. Can confirm! Definitely going to need a new set of clothes when I head back out--this time I'm taking my loving gloves, too.  People were still coming to the polls despite the rain when I left, though.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:31
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Godspeed, VA goons
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Nov 7, 2017 18:34
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This twitter account is posting turnout numbers. https://mobile.twitter.com/VotingGuy It is unverified and I'm not vouching for its veracity but at least some of the items are retweets of official accounts.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:34
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I just can't imagine the thought process of someone who was going to vote but decided not to because of rain. It's just so asinine.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:35
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axeil posted:Oh nice. I voted at the VA Square site at George Mason University Law School (aka A.S.S. Law) Are you going to the watch party tonight? I can't decide if I want to be alone and watch the results or be around people.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:37
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I just can't imagine the thought process of someone who was going to vote but decided not to because of rain. It's just so asinine. Research has shown every 1 inch of rain reduces turnout by about 1%. The uncertainty is if that hits voters of both parties equally or if there is an enthusiasm effect. It's been argued Al Gore lost Florida in 2000 because of particularly heavy rain around the Florida panhandle on election day. B B posted:Are you going to the watch party tonight? I can't decide if I want to be alone and watch the results or be around people. Nah I'm gonna be alone. If we lose I'm gonna have a meltdown and it'll be ugly.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:40
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also good news is that VCU (large public university in richmond) finally has a polling place on campus, so that should help the richmond democratic total
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Nov 7, 2017 18:43
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axeil posted:Nah I'm gonna be alone. If we lose I'm gonna have a meltdown and it'll be ugly. I'll probably do the same, unless our precinct captain makes me go. 
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Nov 7, 2017 18:43
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axeil posted:Research has shown every 1 inch of rain reduces turnout by about 1%.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:53
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Oh I should have mentioned I’m in New Jersey! Our race is a lot more of a lock but I can’t help but be nervous after last year. Godspeed to you, VA goons
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Nov 7, 2017 18:55
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DACK FAYDEN posted:I'm with the poster you were responding to - I don't doubt the research at all, but those people are even more foreign to me than the people who never vote at all. How are you going to vote, but then the weather stops you? Like, what form does that utility calculation take? I've also seen research to show that turnout is reduced by rain less or not at all in close elections, which would tend to suggest that rain keeps home the people who don't think they really need to vote, and that maybe it's more of a luxury or a nice thing to do. In close races it doesn't have as much effect.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:06
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DACK FAYDEN posted:I'm with the poster you were responding to - I don't doubt the research at all, but those people are even more foreign to me than the people who never vote at all. How are you going to vote, but then the weather stops you? Like, what form does that utility calculation take? "Both sides are the same and I don't want to get wet" - these idiots, probably https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/927964930418135040  I dunno if that's good or bad. axeil fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Nov 7, 2017 |
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Nov 7, 2017 19:15
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DACK FAYDEN posted:I'm with the poster you were responding to - I don't doubt the research at all, but those people are even more foreign to me than the people who never vote at all. How are you going to vote, but then the weather stops you? Like, what form does that utility calculation take?
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Nov 7, 2017 19:30
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axeil posted:"Both sides are the same and I don't want to get wet" - these idiots, probably It’s incredibly high for an off yeah election which is usually closer to 130k. The distribution of absentee voting also skewed heavily to NOVA all of which should be favorable toward the Dems.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:31
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https://twitter.com/VoteFairfaxCity/status/927963855879360513 Begin Arzy-ing
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Nov 7, 2017 19:32
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35% of what?
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Nov 7, 2017 19:38
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Fairfax City’s benchmark from 2013 should be 50.4% for the full day.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:39
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:35% of what? All registered voters. https://twitter.com/CvilleVotes/status/927967376536211457 Charlottesville at 31% as of 1 PM. Of course this info isn't that useful unless you know what the turnout was in 2013, 2014 and 2016 which I don't know where to get. edit: I am good at the Google and found the answer:  Might want to sticky the historical turnout. edit 2: https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/927969547784720384 Trump won this county by 25 points. Seems like turnout is depressed in GOP areas. axeil fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Nov 7, 2017 |
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Nov 7, 2017 19:40
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farraday posted:Fairfax City’s benchmark from 2013 should be 50.4% for the full day. Well we're well over half way there at 1pm so things seem good. It's just a tweet to scare some people into making sure they vote after work.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:44
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I voted over my lunch break. I overheard a conversation that they had about 15% turnout already, which was on par with the Presidential election last year and way up from most local elections. I fully expect a big rush after 5 pm when most people get out of work. Seemed like it was mostly older folks in there, but a few GOSH DARN MILLENIALS like me on their lunch break were voting too.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:44
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The state turnout% isn’t granular enough, luckily jmu has the turnouts from past years on a county/city level. http://apps4va.cs.jmu.edu/2017/code/recent_years.jsp?locality=Charlottesville+City Charlottesville looks like they’re going to approach Presidential years.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:49
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axeil posted:It is pouring in Northern Virginia right now. I voted in Western Fairfax around the time this was posted. It was drizzling here but nothing too serious. I observed a good number of people at the polls and it looked like a diverse crowd in terms of race and SES. My husband is off work today and just went. He said it's raining a lot but there were quite a few people there anyway. Fairfax Co schools are closed today and if my friends and neighbors are any indication, a lot of people headed to the polls after parent-teacher conferences.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:01
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farraday posted:The state turnout% isn’t granular enough, luckily jmu has the turnouts from past years on a county/city level. This is gold. Thanks! Here's some info based on that. Counties for the Dems Arlington County - 31% as of Noon, was 49% in 2013 Alexandria City - 36% as of Noon, was 46% in 2013 (In 2013, 28% had voted by noon) Charlottesville City - 31% as of 1 PM, was 40% in 2013 Fairfax City - 35% as of Noon, was 50% in 2013 Fairfax County - 16% as of 10 AM, was 50% in 2013 Richmond City - 17% as of 10 AM, was 38% in 2013 Prince William County - 18% as of 12:50 PM, was 41% in 2013 Falls Church City - 42%  as of Noon, was 66% in 2013Counties for the GOP Nelson County - 33% as of Noon, was 48% in 2013 Fauquier County - 25% as of 1:30 PM, was 46% in 2013 These all seem pretty good. Based on what @VotingGuy is tweeting. edit: note that the 2013 numbers are for the whole day, not as of Noon. axeil fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Nov 7, 2017 |
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Nov 7, 2017 20:04
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I misread your post and thought the second percentages for each county was turnout as of noon not the entire day. Hopefully this holds.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:05
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axeil posted:400,000 felons had their voting rights restored. Haha holy poo poo, first good thing he's said in a while.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:06
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Handsome Ralph posted:I misread your post and thought the second percentages for each county was turnout as of noon not the entire day. Hopefully this holds. How hard did your heart drop until you realized the mistake?
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Nov 7, 2017 20:06
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Handsome Ralph posted:I misread your post and thought the second percentages for each county was turnout as of noon not the entire day. Hopefully this holds. Yeah I doubt the 2016 numbers are going to be hit, but it seems like 2013 will be beat.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:06
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All in all very strong turn out so far. Will depend on how the post work rush comes in(in crucial Waukesha county)
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Nov 7, 2017 20:07
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:How hard did your heart drop until you realized the mistake? My stomach wanted to lurch up the pad thai I just ate, thankfully I quickly realized that I misread it. I think I'm gonna go on a media blackout at 7 and just binge Overwatch//Wolfenstein and then check returns around 11 or so.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:08
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https://www.arlnow.com/2017/11/07/heavy-turnout-short-lines-reported-at-arlington-polling-stations/ARLNow posted:
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Nov 7, 2017 20:18
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Please repost that in the Trump thread to shut some idiots up.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:19
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Please repost that in the Trump thread to shut some idiots up. Done.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:25
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Please repost that in the Trump thread to shut some idiots up. You can’t shut idiots up! You’ll regret this! Woth NOVA turnout coming in high, key things we won’t know are if Gillespie over performed(unlikely) or what his margins look like in the rest of the state. If they’re low or normal this will be called much earlier, if they’re high we’ll be up later. In any case thanks to everyone who worked to boost turnout by calling and knocking on doors. Great job, beers are on Fancy.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:27
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Wait, so if these states go blue then that means maybe the dems are starting to turn things around, and the GOP is disappointing its people enough that they don't want to vote so much these days, and if this pattern holds then there's hope for 2020? And it's looking like something will possibly go okay??? Jesus, I forgot how uncomfortable the feeling of hope is. We're talking a GOP with a slimmer majority of congress reps, signs of a motivated electorate, and a cool 18~ million people living better in the slightly expanding blue zones. Is there a "lol something matters" gif? I didn't even know there was a state that let ex-cons vote. I wish we could make that happen in Cali.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:33
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| # ? May 23, 2024 05:15 |
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Frank Lobiondo (23 year house GOPer from Atlantic City area of NJ) is retiring. That seat is going to be very much in play in 18.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:35
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