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Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop
OK so do I have to wait until the legislation passes before I can wear my strap on to the Kindergarten class?

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cohsae
Jun 19, 2015

Super cool that the survey only confirmed what we've known for years and was a garbage fire and cost a lot of money.

So what effect do we all think this will have on the next election? Will any YES & LNP electorates see swings against the LNP due to negative sentiment RE: the postal vote? Or will people not care about the issue come election time? Turnbull’s polls have been in the shitter but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upswing now. Unless he can’t get SSM law through quickly, then he could be hosed.

Looking at the breakdown of YES/NO votes by LNP/Labor allegiance my expectation is that come election time people will go back to voting in economic self-interest (with a sprinkling of whoever can stop the most boats). Looks to me like people did not link the SSM vote with their party allegiance.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

JBP posted:

Is there anything that accounts for people's vote becoming more right over time though?

I dunno, is there anything that accounts for leprechauns?

You Am I
May 20, 2001

Me @ your poasting

fiery_valkyrie posted:

Hastie and Christensen are saying they'll abstain because they want to vote no but their electorates voted yes.

How about doing your job representing your constituents and voting for what they want.

It's surprising how many representatives go against their electorate's views, be it marriage equality, renewables, etc.

Intoluene
Jul 6, 2011

Activating self-destruct sequence!
Fun Shoe

Cartoon posted:

OK so do I have to wait until the legislation passes before I can wear my strap on to the Kindergarten class?

You can wear it now but it has to be tucked in to your pants until the legislation passes.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

Doctor Spaceman posted:

I dunno, is there anything that accounts for leprechauns?

Mmmm yes a longitudinal study of voter attitudes would be the same as investigating mythical creatures. I agree. Great post.

MikeJF
Dec 20, 2003




Lid posted:

Its frustrating and also unsurprising, and again it lends into the real awkwardness of these areas are the most multicultural areas of Sydney and the poorest. Also shows how successful the right has been in courting them with their original base of hardline Catholics and Protestants simply dying from old age and atheism being more common, their numbers bolstered by non-English speaking Christians and Muslims.

I don't really know that 'poorest' has much to do with it, to be honest. It's like in Melbourne - the only 'no' electorate was Bruce, which is 50% first-generation and over 45% ESL. It's also rich as fuuuuuck. Really, the big takeaway from this is that we really need to get onto bridging the cultural gap and making up for lost time on the astroturfing that the right has been doing into the immigrant communities, because the right's been sneakily building them up into its new base and the left's been utterly oblivious.

MikeJF fucked around with this message at 02:27 on Nov 15, 2017

VivaLa Eeveelution
Apr 3, 2011

You Am I posted:

It's surprising how many representatives go against their electorate's views, be it marriage equality, renewables, etc.

:airquote:representatives:airquote:

It really is because the major parties take it as a given that it'll be one or the other of them, so the choices they need to offer and acknowledge are practically cosmetic.

It is only a given because we allow it to be so. They need to be scared into doing their jobs.

Minor. Party. Harder.

Tokamak
Dec 22, 2004

fiery_valkyrie posted:

Hastie and Christensen are saying they'll abstain because they want to vote no but their electorates voted yes.

corncobbed by your own electorate

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

MikeJF posted:

I don't really know that 'poorest' has much to do with it, to be honest. It's like in Melbourne - the only 'no' electorate was Bruce, which is 50% first-generation and over 45% ESL. It's also rich as gently caress. But really, the big takeaway from this is that we really need to get onto bridging the cultural gap and making up for lost time on the astroturfing that the right has been doing into the immigrant communities.

Calwell voted no and it's all poors/immigants

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

You Am I posted:

It's surprising how many representatives go against their electorate's views, be it marriage equality, renewables, etc.

I know. They're just fuckwits and I like to be mean to them.

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

JBP posted:

Mmmm yes a longitudinal study of voter attitudes would be the same as investigating mythical creatures. I agree. Great post.

There's no evidence that actually happens, but there seems to be an interesting see-saw effect, with the Wartime folks being to the left of the boomers, Gen X being socially conservative even compared to their parents on many issues vs Millennials, and then it's said that the generation after that are hard to the right.

Most people blame the Internet for that. Go look at communities like Imgur and Reddit, and its image aggregation sites, 4 chan, gaming communities and other places where the younger kids under 18 hang out.

The Internet Was a Mistake.

MikeJF
Dec 20, 2003




JBP posted:

Calwell voted no and it's all poors/immigants

Did they? Okay.

But yeah. I stand by that I don't really think it was 'poors'.

BBJoey
Oct 31, 2012

fiery_valkyrie posted:

Hastie and Christensen are saying they'll abstain because they want to vote no but their electorates voted yes.

How about doing your job representing your constituents and voting for what they want.

so you’re of the view that tony burke should vote no?

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

MikeJF posted:

Did they? Okay.

But yeah. I stand by that I don't really think it was 'poors'.

Maybe we should stop trying to pin the no vote onto a specific cultural or ethnic demographic and just get on with watching the Liberal Party eat itself.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

Don Dongington posted:

There's no evidence that actually happens

This is what I was wondering about and whether there was anything that might have even vaguely outlined changes in perspective in age groups.

The generation under me is going to be the loving worst thanks to the new brand of lovely facebook era internet.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

JBP posted:

Mmmm yes a longitudinal study of voter attitudes would be the same as investigating mythical creatures. I agree. Great post.

Studies have been done and have found minor effects at best, and that if there is a drift it isn't necessarily to the right.

MikeJF
Dec 20, 2003




Don Dongington posted:

Maybe we should stop trying to pin the no vote onto a specific cultural or ethnic demographic and just get on with watching the Liberal Party eat itself.

I'm not really wanting to blame, just really concerned that it's a demographic that's been largely ignored and neglected by the left and we need to make concerted efforts to outreach and make inroads fast.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

MikeJF posted:

I'm not really wanting to blame, just really concerned that it's a demographic that's been largely ignored and neglected by the left and we need to make concerted efforts to outreach and make inroads fast.

Automate them and forget about it imo

bigis
Jun 21, 2006
It’s gotta be awkward for Labor MPs in electorates that had a majority no result.

Brown Paper Bag
Nov 3, 2012

https://twitter.com/iangoodenoughmp/status/930589960792506368

kirbysuperstar
Nov 11, 2012

Let the fools who stand before us be destroyed by the power you and I possess.
Even the WS FM bloke was making fun of Abbott.

Ragingsheep
Nov 7, 2009
Just whip the parties into voting yes.

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice
The issue's never been the electorate; it was always the party room.

For both parties. The ALP still doesn't have a binding vote on SSM, until next term.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

You Am I posted:

It's surprising how many representatives go against their electorate's views, be it marriage equality, renewables, etc.

Most Australians vote for a party and would have no idea who their MP is.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

MikeJF posted:

I'm not really wanting to blame, just really concerned that it's a demographic that's been largely ignored and neglected by the left and we need to make concerted efforts to outreach and make inroads fast.

Surely the correlation is with religion, not immigration?

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

freebooter posted:

Most Australians vote for a party and would have no idea who their MP is.

If you haven't met your MP and taken the opportunity to speak to them and find out what they're about then they're either a snooty Liberal front bencher who charges for access, or you're doing democracy wrong.

StudlyCaps
Oct 4, 2012

rapeface posted:

Surely the correlation is with religion, not immigration?

No, not really.

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

JBP posted:

This is what I was wondering about and whether there was anything that might have even vaguely outlined changes in perspective in age groups.

I always assumed it was the accumulation of assets. When you're young and poor it's easy to argue for high tax rates because someone else will be paying them. It's different when you're old and rich and you're the one who will be made worse off (if you take a shortsighted view).

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Don Dongington posted:

If you haven't met your MP and taken the opportunity to speak to them and find out what they're about then they're either a snooty Liberal front bencher who charges for access, or you're doing democracy wrong.

Lol take the tiny percentage of Australians who know who their MP is and you'll find an even slimmer percentage have ever bothered to try to communicate with them (I certainly haven't, apart from having him block me on twitter)

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

freebooter posted:

Lol take the tiny percentage of Australians who know who their MP is and you'll find an even slimmer percentage have ever bothered to try to communicate with them (I certainly haven't, apart from having him block me on twitter)

Mine did her campaigning at the train station I use and openly invited people to come talk to her. My state representative regularly publishes his whereabouts on facebook and encourages people to sit down and have a chat/coffee with him. gently caress, the Premier takes the train to work.

ALP in WA might be too socially conservative for my liking, but they're pretty grounded all the same.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.
Sometimes Tim Watts just hangs around at Footscray market talking poo poo with people which is pretty good.

snoremac
Jul 27, 2012

I LOVE SEEING DEAD BABIES ON 𝕏, THE EVERYTHING APP. IT'S WORTH IT FOR THE FOLLOWING TAB.
Sorry folks, they're playing hardball, gay marriage cancelled:

quote:

Christian couple vow to divorce if same-sex marriage is legalised.

A Canberra couple have vowed to get a divorce, ending their "sacred" 10-year union, if Australia allows same-sex couples to legally marry.

Nick Jensen and his wife Sarah believe widening the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples threatens the sacred nature of the union and leaves the door open to polygamy.

The Christian couple have been happily married for over a decade, have no intention of separating and hope to have more children. For all intents and purposes they have a healthy marriage.

But in a novel protest against any successful move to legalise same sex-marriage in Australia, Mr Jensen wrote in an article published in Canberra CityNews on Wednesday that they are prepared to divorce.

"My wife and I, as a matter of conscience, refuse to recognise the government's regulation of marriage if its definition includes the solemnisation of same sex couples," said Mr Jensen, who is director of the Lachlan Macquarie Institute, which partners with the Australian Christian Lobby to offer scholarships designed to develop a Christian worldview and foster leaders in government policy.

Mr Jensen told Fairfax Media that he and his wife entered into their marriage "as a fundamental order of creation, part of God's intimate story for human history, man and woman, for the sake of children, faithful and for life".

"And so, if later on in the year the state does go ahead and changes the definition of marriage and changes the terms of that contract then we can no longer partake in that new definition unfortunately," he said.

Legalising same-sex marriage would undermine "our most sacred institution, and have serious consequences for children who would grow up without a mother or father," Mr Jensen said.

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

Buzzfeed posted:

The “yes” vote still doesn’t justify the survey: Tanya Plibersek
Deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek was at the Sydney event. She told BuzzFeed News she feels “just absolutely delighted” by the "overwhelming" result, but added the debate has been difficult for many.

Responding to a question on her gay and lesbian colleagues in the parliament, Plibersek said: “I think the debate has been really hard for lots of people in the Australian community."

“It is very hard to be as high profile as Penny Wong, for example, and to receive the threats, the hate mail, the judgement of her life and her family., But I don’t feel most sorry for Penny Wong. I have felt most sad for those teenagers isolated in their families, ashamed to tell their friends, having their relationships and their same-sex attraction discussed by the Australian community.”

Asked if the “yes” vote justified all that, Plibersek said a firm “no”.

“This survey was never justified … The cost is not justified and the hurt, the hurt will never be justified.”

THIS is what the ALP need for a platform following the result. Turnbull will almost certainly get a polling bounce if they manage to move this through quickly with minimal fuss, meaning they've gotten away with the Plebiscite farce.

MikeJF
Dec 20, 2003




snoremac posted:

Sorry folks, they're playing hardball, gay marriage cancelled:

Hilariously, they'd be denied because you're not allowed to divorce unless the marriage has actually broken down.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

rapeface posted:

Surely the correlation is with religion, not immigration?

https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/930587704441520128

Have a play around with the data

cohsae
Jun 19, 2015

RE: SSM voting and poors.
This is yes vote percentage v median household weekly income per electorate (only for NSW and QLD bc I couldn't be hosed doing more).
Australia's median is around $1400


Edit: Oh well look at this oval office with a fancy website and poo poo

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.

This doesn't look too clear of a relationship.

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

Outside of the major cities electorates are too diverse for median income to be all that useful.

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Gentleman Baller
Oct 13, 2013

Cartoon posted:

OK so do I have to wait until the legislation passes before I can wear my strap on to the Kindergarten class?

Please do not skip phases of the gay agenda. You know full well that's not until 2018.

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