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LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!
CNBC just had a segment covering Bitcoin prices. They had two derpy looking guys who both said they could see Bitcoin going to $1,000,000 USD per coin by 2020. Do they not understand that the total value for Bitcoin would then be 20 trillion US dollars? Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesnt Bitcoin cap out at 20 million coins?

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Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Cheesemaster200 posted:

The price of anything is dictated by what someone else is willing to pay for it.

It seems like a simple and obvious concept, but that is what intrinsically drives markets. Therefore, it can logically be determined that all prices are behavioral based. The question is what ultimately drives that behavior.

The efficient market camp would say that decisions are based off "rational" decisions; defined by actions that are always made in the interest of maximizing individual return and/or minimizing risk. The behavioral camp would argue that people make decisions based upon irrational reasoning; such as wanting to watch the world burn, or because they have an idealistic belief they want to act on.

The line between the two is fuzzy, because many times we want to write off market movements as "irrational" because it doesn't meet a personal test of valuation; like fundamentals, technical analysis, etc. However that doesn't necessarily mean that the people behind that market movement are acting irrationally. I personally think Tesla is horrifically overvalued, but if everyone invested in Tesla truly believes the current valuation is justified and are looking to maximize their return, then that price is quite rational. However, if everyone is buying into Tesla because they want to see electric cars succeed regardless of their financial well being, then I would argue that is an irrational valuation.

That's how I view it, though I am sure many others have different opinions on what defines a "rational" decision.

Exactly, it's "rational" depending on your point of view. This trickles down to the very value of a dollar, some people value it higher and so spend their lives working to aquire it but other enlightened folks see that its just a piece of paper and spend their lives gaming and doing the italian kiss finger thing thinking of cam girls like me.

Zerstorung
Jun 27, 2008

LLCoolJD posted:

CNBC just had a segment covering Bitcoin prices. They had two derpy looking guys who both said they could see Bitcoin going to $1,000,000 USD per coin by 2020. Do they not understand that the total value for Bitcoin would then be 20 trillion US dollars? Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesnt Bitcoin cap out at 20 million coins?
You have to factor in the goodwill value of all the blockchains.

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

LLCoolJD posted:

CNBC just had a segment covering Bitcoin prices. They had two derpy looking guys who both said they could see Bitcoin going to $1,000,000 USD per coin by 2020. Do they not understand that the total value for Bitcoin would then be 20 trillion US dollars? Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesnt Bitcoin cap out at 20 million coins?

What is the fundamental value of a Bitcoin? Is it possible to know? With normal currency, it depends on the goal of the central bank behind itand therefore how the underlying economy is doing (inflation or deflation depending on CPI, etc). But because Bitcoin by its very nature is opaque, it means determining how much opaqueness is desired in the market so impossible to measure methinks. Would be interesting to see if the rise of Bitcoin correalates with the rise of the opoid epidemic the country is going through, and if the rise of opoid addiction is increasing, if that is tied to the price of Bitcoin going up (due to the need for opaque transactions).

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Bitcoin has no value, but as we legitimize it with news and coverage it's value increases in hype due to fomo.

Droo
Jun 25, 2003

I would be curious to know how much carbon Bitcoin has pointlessly pumped into the atmosphere.

Kal Torak
Jul 17, 2003

When Giles sends me on a mission, he says "please". And afterwards I get a cookie.

LLCoolJD posted:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesnt Bitcoin cap out at 20 million coins?

How many of those coins have been lost forever?

A MIRACLE
Sep 17, 2007

All right. It's Saturday night; I have no date, a two-liter bottle of Shasta and my all-Rush mix-tape... Let's rock.

Risky Bisquick posted:

Bitcoin has no value, but as we legitimize it with news and coverage it's value increases in hype due to fomo.

Well that and money laundering

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

A MIRACLE posted:

Well that and money laundering

Did you know US Dollars are the number one currency used in money laundering? Shocking but true.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Droo posted:

I would be curious to know how much carbon Bitcoin has pointlessly pumped into the atmosphere.
More electricity than the whole of Ireland: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/27/bitcoin-mining-consumes-electricity-ireland

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

I'm ready for bitcoin to crash hard and gently caress right off so I can actually buy a video card for my PC at a reasonable price

ceebee
Feb 12, 2004
Curious about people from the last page investing in $WEED. Is now a good time to start investing it with it still being federally illegal in the US? I've been telling some of my family members not to bother until it becomes legal since it seems volatile but with Canada legalizing it soon I feel like it might be a good time to invest in companies around there. Any recommendations for ones to check out that I can get on Robinhood or E-Trade?

XBenedict
May 23, 2006

YOUR LIPS SAY 0, BUT YOUR EYES SAY 1.

ceebee posted:

Curious about people from the last page investing in $WEED. Is now a good time to start investing it with it still being federally illegal in the US? I've been telling some of my family members not to bother until it becomes legal since it seems volatile but with Canada legalizing it soon I feel like it might be a good time to invest in companies around there. Any recommendations for ones to check out that I can get on Robinhood or E-Trade?

I don't think you can buy OTC on Robinhood.

I'm currently invested in $ACBFF and $ABCCF (both are down today) for my weed needs. Canopy is the biggest, but the smaller growers are buying each other out. Aurora just submitted a proposal to purchase CanniMed, for instance.

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
I would be fine having to exercise expiring options and take possession of 1000 tons of weed.

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

It would be interesting to take a poll on where you guys think the market falls as far as rational pricing -

there's the old yarn about a Chicago economist not stopping to pick up a dollar on the street "because if it was real someone would have picked it up already" level of market rationality

all the way through

"animal spirits" irrationality, largely en vogue right now with Thaler's recent Nobel for behavioral economics.

I tend to favor the latter, although that's mostly a product of my era. My finance professors lean quite a bit harder toward the former, and in fact I had one dress me down in class for "buying the hype" about the latter.

I think that rational pricing would require abstention being a viable mechanism operating in the market, however the mass of money flowing into index funds from 'conservative' investors precludes those funds from abstaining from participating in the market (and, largely, from even proportionally abstaining from purchasing individual mispriced instruments). Since abstention isn't and structurally cannot happen, at some degree, we can be confident that we're operating at some point in the rational / irrational spectrum leaning toward the irrational side.

Beyond that, however, I don't think there's a mania comparable to where we were 10 years ago with housing. The price of securities is historically high, and that's with good reason: other investment vehicles have comparatively atrocious returns, so the price of security (security as the inverse of risk) is quite high; consequently you have to embrace a lot of risk to get the kind of returns that were once available in bonds years ago. People who want to chase a specific return have to put their money in equities. Combine that with the money flowing in because of the perceived safety of indexing, and there's a lot more demand for equities in aggregate, so their prices are higher compared to historical prices. For most equities in the market, people who are buying above and beyond the baseline of "everything is getting invested in via indexing" is making a decision based on an expected return on investment. You can point at TSLA which is clearly irrationally priced as a clear demonstration of irrationality present in the market.

That TSLA is clearly irrational would suggest that there is some baseline of rationality you can compare TSLA against, so, do you think that most equities are priced similarly to how TSLA is priced, or differently?

There's no signal that bonds or real estate or other investments are going to start becoming more attractive in the near term, and there's no signal that they will be doing so abruptly. To see the market tank spectacularly right now, we'd need some abrupt shock that scares investors to move to cash, and I think the aggregate motivation by fear right now is to put more money into equities given their performance since the crash: the Fear Of Missing Out.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
All tickers on the TSE or CVE, WEED, ACB, FIRE, MJN, WMD, PUF.

You basically need to figure out who has a license (marihuana for medical purposes regulations MMPR) and see what their growth is like. All the small players will likely be gobbled up as they get closer to legalization (July 1st).

I highly recommend thoroughly reading https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Im in vesting in vial of heroin aka boy

post hole digger
Mar 21, 2011

as they say... "boy low, get high" :grin:

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
https://twitter.com/CitronResearch/status/935947491693887488

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

FAANG lost $60 billion today, buy bitcoin and weed, burn it all down salt the earth

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


How are these guys not in jail?

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:

Josh Lyman posted:

How are these guys not in jail?


Well for once what they're describing here is a pure arbitrage play, which will close with the smart money looking a little bit closer, so I don't think this one really merits a federal indictment.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

Well for once what they're describing here is a pure arbitrage play, which will close with the smart money looking a little bit closer, so I don't think this one really merits a federal indictment.
GBTC has been much more overpriced than 40%. Besides, you can't even short GBTC because it's OTC so basically nobody has any to borrow.

If you look through the comments on the tweet, most people believe Citron is actually long GBTC and just wanted an opportunity to buy some at a lower price. Textbook stock price manipulation.

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.
Time to go long on GBTC! I think Im gonna start a simulation of buying after Citron announcements and see how it does for the first half of next year.

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)

Syrinxx posted:

FAANG lost $60 billion today, buy bitcoin and weed, burn it all down salt the earth

My weeds were down like 8% today too :/

Then I was like "oh well the index etfs outta be doing alright ..."

On the topic of Aurora: Aurora takeover bid 'makes no sense,' based on inflated share price: CanniMed

Also, I can't short GBTC, I mean who the gently caress is loaning out GBTC?

dougdrums fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Nov 30, 2017

A MIRACLE
Sep 17, 2007

All right. It's Saturday night; I have no date, a two-liter bottle of Shasta and my all-Rush mix-tape... Let's rock.

Solice Kirsk posted:

Time to go long on GBTC! I think Im gonna start a simulation of buying after Citron announcements and see how it does for the first half of next year.

My buddy made like 5500 on it last week and stop lossed out of it today lmao.

crazypeltast52
May 5, 2010



Risky Bisquick posted:

All tickers on the TSE or CVE, WEED, ACB, FIRE, MJN, WMD, PUF.

You basically need to figure out who has a license (marihuana for medical purposes regulations MMPR) and see what their growth is like. All the small players will likely be gobbled up as they get closer to legalization (July 1st).

I highly recommend thoroughly reading https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/

I like IIPR domestically, it's a greenhouse REIT that is buying these at cap rates that haven't been seen on real estate in decades. It's latest filing has a good acquisition pipeline to start spreading out their startup costs, with dividend checks already flowing from the REIT structure.

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

Josh Lyman posted:

I touched the poop, trying to trade GBTC.

It is already backfiring.

so were you holding o/n or what?!??! woulda been a sweet rear end win....

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Jack Daniels posted:

so were you holding o/n or what?!??! woulda been a sweet rear end win....
I don't wanna talk about it. :smith:

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

lol, understood

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel
Does anyone else hate the new Google finance, or is it just me?

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!
finance.google.com is still up for me, but yeah the new one is awful.

Dr. Eldarion
Mar 21, 2001

Deal Dispatcher

Google has somehow managed to launch something where an old Yahoo UI is actually better.

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Cheesemaster200 posted:

Does anyone else hate the new Google finance, or is it just me?
What you don't like 85% of a website being unused whitespace?

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


The continued usefulness of Yahoo Finance astounds me.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Risky Bisquick posted:

All tickers on the TSE or CVE, WEED, ACB, FIRE, MJN, WMD, PUF.

You basically need to figure out who has a license (marihuana for medical purposes regulations MMPR) and see what their growth is like. All the small players will likely be gobbled up as they get closer to legalization (July 1st).

I highly recommend thoroughly reading https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/
Once recreational marijuana becomes legalized, won't the medical marijuana companies lose a bunch of business?

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel
My patience with KR has finally been rewarded; bought at ~$22 and up like 20-25%

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Josh Lyman posted:

Once recreational marijuana becomes legalized, won't the medical marijuana companies lose a bunch of business?

You can brew your own alcohol to consume, but people by and large pay someone else for the convenience to do that for them. The medical producers will be the ones supplying the newly created market with product.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Risky Bisquick posted:

You can brew your own alcohol to consume, but people by and large pay someone else for the convenience to do that for them. The medical producers will be the ones supplying the newly created market with product.
I'm wondering mainly about producers who won't need a medical supplier license under the assumption that's more trouble than just setting up a neighborhood pot shop.

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Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Josh Lyman posted:

I'm wondering mainly about producers who won't need a medical supplier license under the assumption that's more trouble than just setting up a neighborhood pot shop.

Those are illegal is most provinces, only a few smaller provinces will allow private sellers outside of a government owned monopoly. Feel free to read https://openparliament.ca/bills/42-1/C-45/ for details of who can supply weed and how much red tape will be involved in the 'national cannabis tracking system'

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