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pokemon
Dec 1, 2017

by Smythe
see that lake in the southeast middle of australia? it's not there in the present day, obviously. that's currently a big hosed-up overfarmed desert punctuated by a series of wetlands that have been severely degraded by agriculture and draining water for cotton farming (why you would farm cotton in australia i don't know). it's a massive floodplain that's disappearing underwater at intervals closer and closer together, and when it's finally too underwater for agriculture, it will be restored to what it used to be - one of the most valuable habitats for nesting waterbirds in the world! :neckbeard:

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pokemon
Dec 1, 2017

by Smythe
incidentally, from what i can tell, that lake will form in the area that has the largest population of genetically pure non-persecuted dingos left on the continent, and they will thrive and be joyous and golden

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:
Please do not hijack my work to perpetuate your agenda of pessimism.

Jackard
Oct 28, 2007

We Have A Bow And We Wish To Use It

pokemon posted:

see that lake in the southeast middle of australia? it's not there in the present day, obviously. that's currently a big hosed-up overfarmed desert punctuated by a series of wetlands that have been severely degraded by agriculture and draining water for cotton farming (why you would farm cotton in australia i don't know). it's a massive floodplain that's disappearing underwater at intervals closer and closer together, and when it's finally too underwater for agriculture, it will be restored to what it used to be - one of the most valuable habitats for nesting waterbirds in the world! :neckbeard:

At least the Aral Sea will come back!!

Ganson
Jul 13, 2007
I know where the electrical tape is!
Hopefully whatever comes next will do better than we did and not reinvent forums.somethingawful.com.

AceOfFlames
Oct 9, 2012


gently caress yeah, Lisbon is gonna make it. Suck it, other coastal nations. :smug:

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.
Is there a bigger version anywhere, wanna zoom in on western finland.

Jackard
Oct 28, 2007

We Have A Bow And We Wish To Use It

His Divine Shadow posted:

Is there a bigger version anywhere, wanna zoom in on western finland.
PC: Drag the image to its own tab for a 2700x1350 version
Phone: no

Heres another https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2013/09/rising-seas-ice-melt-new-shoreline-maps/

Jackard fucked around with this message at 12:37 on Dec 8, 2017

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

what the hell is going on with the (african and arabian) deserts? Is there any scenario where global warming leads to reversing desertification?

That doesn't feel correct to me.

double nine fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Dec 8, 2017

Banana Man
Oct 2, 2015

mm time 2 gargle piss and shit

double nine posted:

what the hell is going on with the (african and arabian) deserts? Is there any scenario where global warming leads to reversing desertification?

That doesn't feel correct to me.

Depending on how bad the ocean currents/jet stream gets hosed up it could change a wholeeeeee lot of places like that. Obviously the new bodies of water and mountains and junk will play a role.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

double nine posted:

what the hell is going on with the (african and arabian) deserts? Is there any scenario where global warming leads to reversing desertification?

That doesn't feel correct to me.
It's a sort of reversal to a prehistoric climate that used to exist there when the Earth was hotter and wetter, though as people pointed out when I posted it, the time-frame for such a reversal is not what you could call near-term. Basically, water returning doesn't help much if the top soil has eroded away.

Schizotek
Nov 8, 2011

I say, hey, listen to me!
Stay sane inside insanity!!!

As a flordia native, I can only hope this comes to pass before I get too old. We have it comin.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007


I thought this news article had a nice summary of the result, especially for those not able to access the original paper (geez Nature):

Ars Technica posted:

In this case, the researchers took a slightly different approach to weighting models. Since the difference between models ultimately boils down to the balance of energy reaching and leaving the Earth’s surface, the new research focused on this directly.

We have satellite observations of this energy covering the planet, including the sunlight reflected away from the Earth and the outgoing infrared heat energy that makes it through the atmosphere. So the researchers compared each model to these observations in a number of ways—longer-term average values, the magnitude of seasonal swings, and variability month to month.

They related the success score for each model to the amount of warming it projected over the coming century. Using that relationship, they then calculated a new best estimate for future warming. That estimate was a little higher than the model average shown in the IPCC report. In that highest emissions scenario, the best estimate for projected warming increases from 4.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius. Once again, the models that performed best were the ones that also happened to project the most future warming.

Not quite related but I thought this was a significant development:

quote:

Rep. McNerney Introduces Groundbreaking Geoengineering Bill

Washington, DC – As the nation continues to grapple with historic flooding and wildfires, Congressman Jerry McNerney (CA-09) has introduced legislation to explore innovative options to combat the root cause of these intensifying natural disasters: climate change.

Last month, Congressman McNerney called for a hearing in the House Committee on Science, Space & Technology (SST) to collect information from experts in the field of geoengineering – which implements techniques to counteract the effects of climate change. Today, the Congressman has introduced H.R. 4586, the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act. This legislation would provide for a federal commitment to the creation of a geoengineering research agenda and an assessment of the potential risks of geoengineering practices.

A related summary:

quote:

Republican committee leaders expressed hope that geoengineering technologies could someday address climate change. Democratic members were more cautious, supporting research but emphasizing it should not be viewed as a substitute for emissions reductions or other approaches for combating climate change.
...
Energy Subcommittee Chair Randy Weber (R-TX) pointed to the promise of the geoengineering research and modeling efforts currently being led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and other national labs in collaboration with international partners. He called for the commencement of small-scale field tests to examine the accuracy of geoengineering models, which seek to predict how different interventions will affect the climate.

The endpoint of the climate debate seems to be conservatives waiting just long enough to credibly jump straight from denialism to urgent demands for speculative geoengineering to address imminent catastrophic warming. Anything to actually avoid reducing fossil fuel consumption and the associated public spending or hit to quarterly profits. On the other hand maybe it's not a bad time to get into geoengineering research.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Schizotek posted:

As a flordia native, I can only hope this comes to pass before I get too old. We have it comin.

The peninsula isn't going to disappear during your lifetime, but if you take good care of himself you'll get to see 2 or 3 feet rise plus stronger hurricanes render the coast uninhabitable.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

pokemon posted:

incidentally, from what i can tell, that lake will form in the area that has the largest population of genetically pure non-persecuted dingos left on the continent, and they will thrive and be joyous and golden

honestly I'm not sure why you go and rereg and then avshalompost, I'm genuinely interested in your ecology stuff and then you hurl that into the pit that may or may not be your ambiguous genitals

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
You're throwing away really good usernames, too.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

GreyjoyBastard posted:

honestly I'm not sure why you go and rereg and then avshalompost, I'm genuinely interested in your ecology stuff and then you hurl that into the pit that may or may not be your ambiguous genitals

what the gently caress

Ganson
Jul 13, 2007
I know where the electrical tape is!

Schizotek posted:

As a flordia native, I can only hope this comes to pass before I get too old. We have it comin.

Generally surgeons don't make a habit of poking at and/or rupturing cancerous growths unless they can be removed in their entirety.

I feel like that logic applies here for the rest of the country.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

I had a dream where I was trying to drive away from a tsunami.

I know sea level rise won't work like that, but it was a good dream still.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

enraged_camel posted:

I had a dream where I was trying to drive away from a tsunami.

I know sea level rise won't work like that, but it was a good dream still.
I'm sure a sufficiently dramatic collapse of parts of the Antarctic ice sheet will be able to produce a tsunami.

Magius1337est
Sep 13, 2017

Chimichanga
is there a good site where I can track the jetstream because I really want to see if we'll get any snow this winter

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Yeah it's called on an airplane

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
The saddest loving thing you will see all month

:(

SSJ_naruto_2003
Oct 12, 2012



I hope polar bears learn to eat the 1%tbh

Dr. Furious
Jan 11, 2001
KELVIN
My bot don't know nuthin' 'bout no KELVIN

Magius1337est posted:

is there a good site where I can track the jetstream because I really want to see if we'll get any snow this winter

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004





Im assuming you saw this on CBC last night too, because holy gently caress did that ever tug at my heart strings. :smith:

Worst part was the guy filming it saying its illegal to feed polar bears in Canada, so he couldnt even help.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
I mean, it's not a homeless human, throwing it a seal is just going to prolong the suffering of this magnificent creature rather than inspire it to get a home and a job. :(

The next decade is going to be really hard on a generation which grew up watching nature documentaries.

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Trabisnikof posted:

California is mainly shutting down their nuclear power plants because of cost concerns; damage of expensive replacement parts (SONGS) or costs of meeting newer rules banning once-through cooling (Diablo Canyon).

The situation in California is a lot different than Germany tbh. Germany was a country with a ton of nuclear that they ended up phasing out quickly, replacing it with renewable and lignite coal plants. California never had that much nuclear and replaced coal with renewables and natural gas. I don't think they should shut down Diablo Canyon but it's a small part of the grid. But they face a similar situation to Germany in the long run in that they'll need baseload sources in the long run, and that nuclear can't perform that role in a renewables-dominated environment, so the answer is coal and natural gas.

Jackard
Oct 28, 2007

We Have A Bow And We Wish To Use It

Nocturtle posted:

The endpoint of the climate debate seems to be conservatives waiting just long enough to credibly jump straight from denialism to urgent demands for speculative geoengineering to address imminent catastrophic warming. Anything to actually avoid reducing fossil fuel consumption and the associated public spending or hit to quarterly profits. On the other hand maybe it's not a bad time to get into geoengineering research.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwLmJCu38FA

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Thug Lessons posted:

The situation in California is a lot different than Germany tbh. Germany was a country with a ton of nuclear that they ended up phasing out quickly, replacing it with renewable and lignite coal plants. California never had that much nuclear and replaced coal with renewables and natural gas. I don't think they should shut down Diablo Canyon but it's a small part of the grid. But they face a similar situation to Germany in the long run in that they'll need baseload sources in the long run, and that nuclear can't perform that role in a renewables-dominated environment, so the answer is coal and natural gas.

Another way they're different is that California never really used that much coal to generate electricity. Right now there is only a lone 68MW coal plant left (and LADWP ownership in some Arizona coal plants). The emissions laws and the expense to ship over the Sierra Nevadas meant no one built new coal plants. What little local coal there was got consumed during the railroad era. So the Californian grid is reliant on hydro and natural gas. Hydro is less and less reliable because of restrictions on water releases. So it's half natural gas now and the is rest big hydro, nuclear and renewables. But in 2016 solar produced more than nuclear, so you're right the Californian grid isn't reliant on nuclear in a meaningful way.

To California's credit their energy regulator, the CPUC, has placed mandatory requirements for utility scale storage, demand response, and grid improvements. So there, regulators are forcing the kinds of investments required to shift from the current natural gas dominated grid to a portfolio based renewables, storage and Dems age management based grid.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Not directly related to climate change but still...

Recycling chaos in US as China bans 'foreign waste'

quote:

[...]

The U.S. exports about one-third of its recycling, and nearly half goes to China. For decades, China has used recyclables from around the world to supply its manufacturing boom. But this summer it declared that this "foreign waste" includes too many other nonrecyclable materials that are "dirty," even "hazardous." In a filing with the World Trade Organization the country listed 24 kinds of solid wastes it would ban "to protect China's environmental interests and people's health."

The complete ban takes effect Jan. 1, but already some Chinese importers have not had their licenses renewed. That is leaving U.S. recycling companies scrambling to adapt.

[...]

Morbus
May 18, 2004

Oh man you mean recycling companies are going to actually have to recycle??? (no they will just dump it someplace else :/)

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Morbus posted:

Oh man you mean recycling companies are going to actually have to recycle??? (no they will just dump it someplace else :/)

Elon's Mars plan is looking more and more attractive!

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




enraged_camel posted:

Elon's Mars plan is looking more and more attractive!

For the garbage or the people?

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Furnaceface posted:

For the garbage or the people?

They are one and the same!

Ganson
Jul 13, 2007
I know where the electrical tape is!

Furnaceface posted:

For the garbage or the people?

Yes

CodeJanitor
Mar 30, 2005
I still can't think of anything to say.

Furnaceface posted:

For the garbage or the people?

We call them "transport" or "goods" now, thanks.
I helps keep them docile and avoids panic stampedes during travel.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/JTommins/status/939730664525582336

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Arglebargle III posted:

what the gently caress

pokemon was demonstrably an avshalom rereg and, as it happens, in this case got rebanned from a post related to her original permabanning (advocating the assassination of the President, which makes Lowtax sad and angry) rather than a post related to her drunken... let's call it poetry

if you don't understand the ambiguous genitals part you're clearly not familiar in any way whatsoever with avshalom lore

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SulfurMonoxideCute
Feb 9, 2008

I was under direct orders not to die
🐵❌💀

We had a wildfire break out today near where I live. I'm in Canada, close to the Rockies. Only 100km away in the main ranges of the Rocky Mountains they're breaking snowfall records.

So we're getting dramatically increased precipitation on the mountains and hotter and drier conditions on the eastern plains and foothills. The temperature in the mountains has been fluctuating so wildly these past few winters that we're getting new avalanche paths forming with frequency and size is increasing. I've hiked through brand new avalanche paths that took down trees with trunks over a foot in diameter and the snow was still present in August because the pile left from the slide in middle of winter was so deep. And even with the increased snow levels it's still not keeping up with the rate of glacial recession.

When I was a kid, it was usually negative temperatures in winter with frequent dips to -30 or -40. Every now and then we would get a Chinook which could raise us to above freezing for a couple days then back to the deep freeze. Now it's mostly above freezing all winter with a few dips to -10 or -20. It's been at least 4 years since I experienced colder than -25. It was warmer today in Calgary than it was in Florida.

Hilariously we're an oil town so even though everyone is like "Oh it's so nice to have all this fall weather all the time, I love these warm winters!" they'll still gently caress you up if you say global warming is a thing.

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