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The Glumslinger posted:Its actually better than a lot of the predictions and models Except that most people identifying as "I" are probably just trying to hide their
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Dec 13, 2017 00:03
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There are twice as many Republicans as Democrats in Alabama.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:03
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canepazzo posted:That seems bad. Is it bad? Seems bad. There are about 5 people in Alabama that identify as democrats
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Dec 13, 2017 00:03
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Despera posted:There are about 5 people in Alabama that identify as democrats I know 4 of 'em.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:03
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Rigel posted:Party ID in early exits: So 63% R then.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:03
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Despera posted:There are about 5 people in Alabama that identify as democrats Well, all of them showed up today, that's for sure.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:04
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BonoMan posted:Except that most people identifying as "I" are probably just trying to hide their Independents are down a lot from the models too Quorum posted:43% self-reported Republican vote share is slightly above Monmouth's weighted 41% in the last high-quality poll we had (that had the race tied), and 37% Democratic is way up from Monmouth's 30%. Meanwhile, Independents at 20% are way below Monmouth's 28%.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:04
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exploded mummy posted:30% black would be for Moore like what it would be like for an Eagles fan to watch Carson Wentz tear his ACL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_X6VoFBCE9k 
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Dec 13, 2017 00:04
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BonoMan posted:Except that most people identifying as "I" are probably just trying to hide their It's Alabama, a place that is apparently so hosed up I can see people being more ashamed of not voting Republican than for voting for a kid fucker. No one knows what's going to happen.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:04
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Rigel posted:Party ID in early exits: That seems... good? I don't know if it's enough for Dougie Jones to win, but less than 50% of voters identifying as Republican is something. I'm thinking those huge independent voter numbers are coming from somewhere - it's possible many are traditionally Republican voters who self-identify as independent because they just voted for the Democrat or Nick Saban.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:04
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That poll actually shows why it's vital that we kick out the Frankens and Conyers because Dems vote for the person not just the party. gently caress what the Republicans think about them, we HAVE to run a clean house for our own voters sakes.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:05
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Rigel posted:yep. I'd rather be in our position than the enemy's right now though. Its like how if you win by 30 votes you might still lose in the recount, but you'd rather be the one up going into the recount. I have this reasoning in my head that, if that polling is accurate (and it's already been pointed out how hard it is to get accurate exit polling samples) then it might end up going up further than 30%. I live in a conservative, older population town in CA, and most of the voting happens here in the AM because old white people get up to vote and have nothing else to do, so they go vote and then go get lunch and talk about how the browns are ruining the world, but black voters are facing an uphill battle and will probably tend toward voting later because of that. I'm ridiculously optimistic given that it's alabama, but god drat do I want another win. It's not about needing a win, it's about wanting the GOP to fail so loving spectacularly you can see it from low orbit.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:05
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Ripoff posted:The 20% I is scary as hell because that could be “don’t want to be associated with child mollestors but voted for the mollestor regardless” or “so disgusted with GOP but can’t be seen as a Jones supporter at church”. The recurring theme with this race is that everything is unpredictable, and the data doesn't help, and you could interpret ambiguities to favour either Jones or Moore, and there's nothing to do but curl up and wait for actual results.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:05
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disjoe posted:That seems... good? I don't know if it's enough for Dougie Jones to win, but less than 50% of voters identifying as Republican is something. Plus, it's not a given that all 43% of those Republicans cast ballots for Roy Moore. If even 2-3% of them didn't...
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Dec 13, 2017 00:05
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Supercar Gautier posted:The recurring theme with this race is that everything is unpredictable, and the data doesn't help, and you could interpret ambiguities to favour either Jones or Moore, and there's nothing to do but curl up and wait for actual results.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:05
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LITERALLY MY FETISH posted:I'm ridiculously optimistic given that it's alabama, but god drat do I want another win. It's not about needing a win, it's about wanting the GOP to fail so loving spectacularly you can see it from low orbit. This guy gets it. I want Mitch McConnell to drop a terrified watery deuce in his pants tonight. I want GOP spokespeople running scared on the cable channels. I want to see their terror as their impending doom in 2018 becomes ever clearer. I want them to feel fear. I want Doug Jones' victory to inspire so much fear that he receives a yellow power ring and becomes a member of the Sinestro Corps.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:06
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business hammocks posted:Those are all republicans, yes? most of the time, but self-described I's have been much more anti-moore than self-described Rs it's good
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Dec 13, 2017 00:06
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In conclusion, Alabama is a land of contrasts.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:07
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 shy tory effect in action. Well, maybe.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:07
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evilweasel posted:most of the time, but self-described I's have been much more anti-moore than self-described Rs Perhaps they are all Nick Saban write-in voters and we will have the true comedy option win out.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:08
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axeil posted:Perhaps they are all Nick Saban write-in voters and we will have the true comedy option win out. I almost want Nick Saban to win, just to hear Finebaum in the morning "Paaaaaawl, how is he gonna recruit when they need him in DC for a big vote?"
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Dec 13, 2017 00:09
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CNN is projecting that Bear Bryant's corpse is the new AL-Sen-elect.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:10
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The Glumslinger posted:I almost want Nick Saban to win, just to hear Finebaum in the morning That just gives him a good opportunity to visit the VA/MD recruits 
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Dec 13, 2017 00:11
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SHOAH NUFF posted:Because you post stupid poo poo and then cry like a baby when people call you out on it. Grow up or gently caress off you childish, unfunny, uninteresting bore Hrm, if only there were an ignore feature that you could use to block people you don't like. Oh wait.....
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Dec 13, 2017 00:11
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The people of Alabama have chosen *looks down at paper* Gus Malzahn
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Dec 13, 2017 00:11
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If Jones wins, and thats a big if, all these numbers we're looking at and talking about point to one thing in 2020: Doug Jones would then have a more difficult re-election race (excluding scandals and black swan events) than practically anyone in the last decade.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:11
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axeil posted:Perhaps they are all Nick Saban write-in voters and we will have the true comedy option win out. Me run for Senator? *laughs evilly* Do you KNOW how much power I'd have to give up to be SENATOR?
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Dec 13, 2017 00:11
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Forrest Gump should have ran for the seat. He seemed like a good guy.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:11
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If Jones ends up pulling this out tonight the funny thing is the lesson the RWM will take from it and present to its viewers is “we lost because our guy got smeared by a bunch of false accusations!” , and not “hey maybe don’t nominate lawless whack jobs”.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:11
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letthereberock posted:If Jones ends up pulling this out tonight the funny thing is the lesson the RWM will take from it and present to its viewers is “we lost because our guy got smeared by a bunch of false accusations!” , and not “hey maybe don’t nominate lawless whack jobs”. Well they can't do the latter, they'd have nobody left to nominate in the party in that case 
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Dec 13, 2017 00:12
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letthereberock posted:If Jones ends up pulling this out tonight the funny thing is the lesson the RWM will take from it and present to its viewers is “we lost because our guy got smeared by a bunch of false accusations!” , and not “hey maybe don’t nominate lawless whack jobs”. On the other hand, it might scare donors off from Bannon backed candidates
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Dec 13, 2017 00:13
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letthereberock posted:If Jones ends up pulling this out tonight the funny thing is the lesson the RWM will take from it and present to its viewers is “we lost because our guy got smeared by a bunch of false accusations!” , and not “hey maybe don’t nominate lawless whack jobs”. I'm not sure if the main reason I want Jones to win is because of the extra seat or because of the epic Trump meltdowns it will trigger.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:13
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/940720889313792001
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Dec 13, 2017 00:13
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No Butt Stuff posted:Lol at those initials How did we go so long not noticing this
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Dec 13, 2017 00:13
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Rigel posted:If Jones wins, and thats a big if, all these numbers we're looking at and talking about point to one thing in 2020: Doug Jones would then have a more difficult re-election race (excluding scandals and black swan events) than practically anyone in the last decade. Literally no one thinks he will win in 2020, it's not even worth considering.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:14
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Your Taint posted:Hrm, if only there were an ignore feature that you could use to block people you don't like. Mad YT
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Dec 13, 2017 00:14
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As an non-America I read it as ‘30% of black voters turned out’ rather than ‘30% of voters were black’. Does it make me silly to think both were supposed to be impressive?
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Dec 13, 2017 00:14
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letthereberock posted:If Jones ends up pulling this out tonight the funny thing is the lesson the RWM will take from it and present to its viewers is “we lost because our guy got smeared by a bunch of false accusations!” , and not “hey maybe don’t nominate lawless whack jobs”. Nah they'll probably go "We didn't gerrymander and voter-suppress enough"
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Dec 13, 2017 00:15
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Rigel posted:If Jones wins, and thats a big if, all these numbers we're looking at and talking about point to one thing in 2020: Doug Jones would then have a more difficult re-election race (excluding scandals and black swan events) than practically anyone in the last decade. what if Roy Moore runs as an independent
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Dec 13, 2017 00:15
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PT6A posted:It's Alabama, a place that is apparently so hosed up I can see people being more ashamed of not voting Republican than for voting for a kid fucker. Ha well that's what I'm saying. They say they're "I" in the exit poll, but in reality voted Republican. Anyway yeah it's just baseless speculation.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:15
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