2017 State-Level Elections: America's "Special" Children

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hanales: Nov 3, 2013

axeil posted:

that's stunning.

and 20% of white's without college.

Not to make an "alabama" joke, but it ranks 44th in educational attainment, meaning there's a lot less people with degrees living there.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:13

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# ? May 24, 2024 23:52

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940751812445003777

:shepicide:

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:15

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Nate Silver posted:

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the exit poll shows a large gender gap. Jones is winning among women by 15 points, but Moore is winning among men by 17 points.

By comparison, last year Hillary Clinton won women by 13 points nationally but Trump won men by 9 points.

end men's suffrage

Harry Enten posted:

It�s still extremely early, but as I look at the very limited data we have, I think Jones will get the type of margins he wants among black voters tonight. The question is whether or not he will do well enough with white voters.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:16

Fritz Coldcockin: Nov 7, 2005

axeil posted:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940751812445003777

The state of Alabama has it in for D&D, it seems.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:18

Anubis: Oct 9, 2003; It's hard to keep sand out of ears this big.; Fun Shoe

axeil posted:

end men's suffrage

It really would solve a lot.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:19

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/940752005169123328

jesus loving christ :suicide:

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:20

Your Boy Fancy: Feb 7, 2003; by Cyrano4747

I have faith. Hope means you still feel. Feeling is good in times like these. Put the booze down, put the kettle on, and accept the moment for what it is.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:21

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

axeil posted:

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/940752005169123328

jesus loving christ

Exit. Polls. Are. poo poo.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:21

Oh Snapple!: Dec 27, 2005

Godinster posted:

Holy gently caress are white people in Alabama stupid, 70% for Moore

They're stupid but not for this reason. The people voting for Moore are going to get exactly what they want out of him and will justify their monstrous vote either along those lines or through some real gross misogyny and victim-blaming.

axeil posted:

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/940752005169123328

jesus loving christ

And that's those republicans coming home.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:22

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

my gut, unsupported read is a 3-to-4-point moore win but i know literally nothing about alabama except that which has been posted over the last two months and never really expected the race to be close to begin with

if moore wins, i expect a lot of republican senators to hem and haw about expulsion but to reverse themselves the moment trump interjects himself

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:22

Pakistani Brad Pitt: Nov 28, 2004; Not as taciturn, but still terribly powerful...

Moore down 5c on PredictIt in the last ~10 mins

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:24

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/940753838939754496

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:24

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Exit. Polls. Are. poo poo.

Yes, but given everything if he wins it will because the last second Republicans who decided they had to vote party.

My favorite Exit poll statistic.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/940753931403235329

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:26

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

I think the lesson from this is that we needed the pedophile story to be a December surprise instead of a November surprise.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:27

Anubis: Oct 9, 2003; It's hard to keep sand out of ears this big.; Fun Shoe

It'll come far closer than it should but I honestly don't see Jones walking away with this. Republicans just seemed too willing to shove their beliefs to the side hold their nose and vote. I'd of course, love to be proven wrong.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:28

Darko: Dec 23, 2004

axeil posted:

I think the lesson from this is that we needed the pedophile story to be a December surprise instead of a November surprise.

The same "mistake" was made with the Trump pussy tape.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:29

The Monarch: Jul 8, 2006

Your Boy Fancy posted:

Put the booze down,

Why are you advocating self harm?

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:33

Pants Donkey: Nov 13, 2011

Really, we just need to stop thinking scandals will sink a Republican because the party is comprised of self-interested monsters who just pretend to have any kind of scruples.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:34

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

https://twitter.com/stevenlouisreed/status/940755445123346432

This would probably be good for Jones, but the urban areas aren't enough to swing the state like VA

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:34

Senor Tron: May 26, 2006

farraday posted:

https://twitter.com/stevenlouisreed/status/940755445123346432

This would probably be good for Jones, but the urban areas aren't enough to swing the state like VA

Is that 32% of the population or 32% or possible voters?

What on Earth is going on over there that a 32% turnout is seen as good?!

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:37

Oh Snapple!: Dec 27, 2005

Senor Tron posted:

Is that 32% of the population or 32% or possible voters?

What on Earth is going on over there that a 32% turnout is seen as good?!

a special election

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:38

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

this is torture

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:38

Quorum: Sep 24, 2014; REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

farraday posted:

https://twitter.com/stevenlouisreed/status/940755445123346432

This would probably be good for Jones, but the urban areas aren't enough to swing the state like VA

Yeah, that's one thing that makes this whole race more complicated-- in Virginia, vote margins were relatively predictable by locality going in, so once we had numbers coming out and exits to collate them with a call was easy. (The state giving us the data by precinct helped a lot too.) Here, we're basically stuck until we start getting whole counties in so we can assess how each candidate is doing based on their benchmarks. Until then, vote totals are garbage.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:38

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Senor Tron posted:

Is that 32% of the population or 32% or possible voters?

What on Earth is going on over there that a 32% turnout is seen as good?!

election in an off year for state level elections, on a non standard election day, with voter repression against poor/black people endemic, 30+% would actually be a pretty good turnout.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:39

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Senor Tron posted:

Is that 32% of the population or 32% or possible voters?

What on Earth is going on over there that a 32% turnout is seen as good?!

its an off-year election in a state that makes it extremely difficult to vote for non-rich white people. turnout projections were in the mid-twenties earlier this week.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:39

Your Boy Fancy: Feb 7, 2003; by Cyrano4747

The Monarch posted:

Why are you advocating self harm?

Heh.

Said it last month, I�ll say it again: Donald Trump couldn�t have my sobriety, and neither can Roy Moore.

and getting hot tea during stressful moments is phenomenal and I understand why the British do it now.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:40

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

David Wasserman posted:

Some very early, very tentative good news for Jones: He received 31 percent of the vote in one Cullman County precinct. This is important because Hillary Clinton failed to receive more than 15 percent of the vote in any Cullman County precinct in 2016, save for one majority-black precinct that�s heavily Democratic. Coupled together with other rural precincts, Jones is holding his own in at least a few deep-red places.

Harry Enten posted:

I went into the evening thinking that Moore was a slight favorite. Based upon the latest returns, I wish I had said Jones was the slight favorite. That�s based off the scattered returns so far and looking at my baselines.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/940757582536421376

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:40

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

farraday posted:

https://twitter.com/stevenlouisreed/status/940755445123346432

This would probably be good for Jones, but the urban areas aren't enough to swing the state like VA

This county is crucial. Jones is going to win that county, but thats not enough, he needs to ANNIHILATE Moore in Montgomery, with massive lines around the block turnout.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:41

DrSunshine: Mar 23, 2009; Did I just say that out loud~~?!!!

axeil posted:

this is torture

No, this is:

https://twitter.com/dannydb/status/940708297467981824

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:41

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Harry Enten posted:

I went into the evening thinking that Moore was a slight favorite. Based upon the latest returns, I wish I had said Jones was the slight favorite. That�s based off the scattered returns so far and looking at my baselines.

jesus god

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:43

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

DrSunshine posted:

No, this is:

https://twitter.com/dannydb/status/940708297467981824

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:43

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

quote:

If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. He�d want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/940759799075098629

DON'T DO THIS TO ME ENTEN MY HEART CANT TAKE IT

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:47

sirtommygunn: Mar 7, 2013

Very excited for the 2018 elections considering how close this has turned out. I don't know much about anything but if things are this close in a state election of a bastion of conservatism like Alabama it seems like there's a promise of a big wave for Democrats next year.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:48

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940759432610402304

i will not believe in a jones win until i actually see it happen

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:48

Mikemo Tyson: Apr 30, 2008

axeil posted:

Man, it's been a rough couple of days huh? Let's ditch football and politics and grab some brews. :smith:

Carson

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:49

Your Boy Fancy: Feb 7, 2003; by Cyrano4747

Guys.

It�s this close. In Alabama.

Prepare yourself for a blue cataclysm.

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:50

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Nate Silver posted:

Prediction markets � which showed Moore as roughly a 70/30 favorite heading into the evening � now show a dead heat, giving each candidate about a 50 percent chance of winning.

probably can make some money on the volatility right now

# ? Dec 13, 2017 02:50