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axeil
Feb 14, 2006
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940761021727367169

I TOLD YOU ALL HOPE IS A LIE

:smith:

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Spoderman
Aug 2, 2004

sirtommygunn posted:

Very excited for the 2018 elections considering how close this has turned out. I don't know much about anything but if things are this close in a state election of a bastion of conservatism like Alabama it seems like there's a promise of a big wave for Democrats next year.

2018 is all good and I hope Dems win in a huge wave, but I just hope we can keep up the momentum to win 2020 so we can fix the gerrymandering and won't need 60% margins of victory to win half the available seats...

Fill Baptismal
Dec 15, 2008

Dave Wasserman posted:

The last few minutes' results have been pretty good for Moore. Now back to a dead heat. #ALSEN

You assholes had to loving hope didn't you

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?
Told y'all it's gonna jiggle back and forth until we have full counties in. gently caress Alabama for not reporting by precinct like civilized places.

Also 538 is shitposting about horses cuz they're as stressed as we are.

BlueBlazer
Apr 1, 2010
No hope here. Never hope again.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

this thread is going through multiple manic and depressive episodes before the night is done

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

BlueBlazer posted:

No hope here. Never hope again.



our thread mascot

the black husserl
Feb 25, 2005

discussion of racism has temporarily ceased (christmas armistice) because racism no longer exists.

for a few magic hours, we have no colors black and white

we are only the color of election watchers

and now our watch begins...

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer
Have a beer and calm down guys.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

axeil posted:



our thread mascot

Yeah, the consequences of hoping are

Hmmm

hanales
Nov 3, 2013

Lightning Knight posted:

Have a beer and calm down guys.

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

QuoProQuid posted:

this thread is going through multiple manic and depressive episodes before the night is done

Bingo.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

theflyingorc posted:

Yeah, the consequences of hoping are

Hmmm

crushing disappointment and despair when you are proven wrong again and again and again and again and...

Koalas March
May 21, 2007



Lightning Knight posted:

Have a beer and calm down guys.



I am fighting to maintain my sobriety.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
For the record, folks, USE_JITTER = true works.


Your Boy Fancy posted:

Guys.

It’s this close. In Alabama.

Prepare yourself for a blue cataclysm.

We need a special term for the blue wave next year, and if there's one person in the forums who's earned the right to name it, it's you.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



I'm sorry everyone... I'm sorry that I hoped, for just a moment. :negative:

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

the black husserl posted:

discussion of racism has temporarily ceased (christmas armistice) because racism no longer exists.

for a few magic hours, we have no colors black and white

we are only the color of election watchers

and now our watch begins...

thats only because of the nuclear fire. then we will all be chard or dust.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Harry Enten posted:


Houston County is another place where Moore is beating his benchmark. He’s up 28 percentage points. He needed to win that by 22 points, per my benchmark.

ALL HAS FALLEN INTO SHADOW

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

theflyingorc posted:

Yeah, the consequences of hoping are

Hmmm

Pain. All reactions you see here are a direct result of last November, from the determined to hope to the desperate nihilism evangelists.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

axeil posted:

crushing disappointment and despair when you are proven wrong again and again and again and again and...

Only if you're stupid

Your Boy Fancy
Feb 7, 2003

by Cyrano4747

Koalas March posted:



I am fighting to maintain my sobriety.

Pinkies Up, tea friend

axeil
Feb 14, 2006


remember when i said we were hosed because they said "too early to call"?

this is why.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

"Jones is ahead by a few points"

Oh, that's good

"But less than 1% of precincts are reporting"

Oh, that's bad

"But he's running ahead of his margins in several key counties"

Oh, that's good

"But Moore is running substantially ahead in Limestone"

Oh, that's bad

Your Boy Fancy
Feb 7, 2003

by Cyrano4747

Discendo Vox posted:

For the record, folks, USE_JITTER = true works.


We need a special term for the blue wave next year, and if there's one person in the forums who's earned the right to name it, it's you.

BLUE JUSTICE.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ts7CdRpR8-Q

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer
If Moore wins it’s a lateral move from Jeff Sessions.

If he loses, then we get Jones.

But the story here is not about whether Moore wins, it’s that there has to be a question mark attached to that instead of a period.

Have hope after Virginia friends. Just maybe not for Alabama.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
NATE SILVER 8:59 PM
… and prediction markets have swung rather sharply back toward Moore again, now listing him as an 80 percent favorite.

Goddamit

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

axeil posted:



remember when i said we were hosed because they said "too early to call"?

this is why.

Any result besides too close to call would have been a Moore blowout

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

SalTheBard posted:

NATE SILVER 8:59 PM
… and prediction markets have swung rather sharply back toward Moore again, now listing him as an 80 percent favorite.

Goddamit

Prediction markets do the opposite of matter, ever, at any time.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Harry Enten posted:


If you want a good result for Jones, Russell County has 13 of 18 precincts in and Jones is up 35 points. His benchmark is something closer to 25 points.

GOD drat IT I CANT TAKE IT

Nate Silver posted:


Since we’re obsessively tracking Limestone County, it’s now back to showing “only” a 19-point lead for Moore with 96 percent of the vote counted, which is ever so slightly less than he might be hoping for. The conventional wisdom about where the race stands is probably swinging more than it should based on very incomplete snippets of data.

:shepicide:

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
And Jones is winning again on the needle-o-doom
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940763855436898305

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Harry Enten posted:

If you want a good result for Jones, Russell County has 13 of 18 precincts in and Jones is up 35 points. His benchmark is something closer to 25 points.

Oh, that's good!

SamuraiFoochs
Jan 16, 2007




Grimey Drawer
Alabama is a cesspool.

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface
So i just want to not deal with the drama should I just check back in at like 11 Pacific time?

Old Kentucky Shark
May 25, 2012

If you think you're gonna get sympathy from the shark, well then, you won't.


Telsa Cola posted:

So i just want to not deal with the drama should I just check back in at like 11 Pacific time?

Yup. Play some Overwatch or something.

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Telsa Cola posted:

So i just want to not deal with the drama should I just check back in at like 11 Pacific time?

Yes. either that or wait for the sound of screaming to let you know a decision has arrived.

hanales
Nov 3, 2013

Telsa Cola posted:

So i just want to not deal with the drama should I just check back in at like 11 Pacific time?

If by 11 you mean AM tomorrow, then yeah probably for the best.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

lol if you arent making wildly speculative liveposts

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/940764395411509249

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/940764148463493120

538 guys are stressed too

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Dave Wasserman posted:

Limestone County now has 25 out of 26 precincts reporting, and Moore’s lead has shrunk back down to 19 percent, less than his 22 percent benchmark. The reason it’s so difficult to tell what’s happening so far: Alabama’s precincts are so racially polarized that quick swings are the rule, not the exception.

quote:

Alabama’s precincts are so racially polarized that quick swings are the rule, not the exception.

quote:

quick swings are the rule, not the exception.


My liver and heart can't handle this

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Endorph
Jul 22, 2009

hypothetically what happens if an election results in an exact tie even after multiple recounts

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