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Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.
Is there a thread for 2018 governors? I've been paying so much attention to the Senate, I know nothing about that.

Lycus fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Dec 20, 2017

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Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

Lycus posted:

Is there a thread for 2018 governors? I'm been paying so much attention to the Senate, I know nothing about that.

Nope, just a 2017 state-level race thread.

Bicyclops
Aug 27, 2004

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

A ton of governors mansions are up for grabs next year.

Including MA. Please ensure Martha Coakly stays away forever.

I have a bottle of pretty nice scotch that I've been saving for celebration specifically if Charlie Baker loses, despite how fun it has been watching him continuously crush his own balls trying to straddle the fence.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Fulchrum posted:

I think its time to admit that 2016 was an unwinnable situation against Trump, since you would have to contend with a media who were married to the idea that they needed to portray both candidates as equivalents, a candidate who was so insubstantial and shameless you couldn't pin any of the bad poo poo he did to him because he would pivot aaaaany day now, an electorate that didn't care that it was being lied to, and in fact rewarded the most shameless liar, Russian interference no matter what, voter suppression on an unprecedented scale, incredibly motivated white rage while the media cannot call a white supremacist a white supremacist....people who say "Bernie would have won" are still clinging to the delusion that this was in any way about policy or substance, and wasn't just a referendum on white people wanting to blame everything on the brown people.


...The Enclave?
[/

[quote="Fulchrum" post="479507603"]
I think its time to admit that 2016 was an unwinnable situation against Trump, since you would have to contend with a media who were married to the idea that they needed to portray both candidates as equivalents, a candidate who was so insubstantial and shameless you couldn't pin any of the bad poo poo he did to him because he would pivot aaaaany day now, an electorate that didn't care that it was being lied to, and in fact rewarded the most shameless liar, Russian interference no matter what, voter suppression on an unprecedented scale, incredibly motivated white rage while the media cannot call a white supremacist a white supremacist....people who say "Bernie would have won" are still clinging to the delusion that this was in any way about policy or substance, and wasn't just a referendum on white people wanting to blame everything on the brown people.


...The Enclave?

But there wasn’t any significant increase in white conservative turnout so this idea that there was a swelling tide of conservatism that washed over the country doesn’t really bare out.

What we did see was a very low turnout for the dems. This could be attributed to voter suppression and/or running a deeply unpopular candidate who didn’t bother to campaign in several key states, who didn’t offer anything of substance to voters beyond not being the crazy one.

Sanguinia
Jan 1, 2012

~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

Evil Fluffy posted:

If the Dems take the Senate they'd better not confirm a single loving nominee of Trump's. Not that there will be any vacancies because the GOP's going to fill them all by then one way or the other.

Realtalk question: the judge thing is probably one of the single biggest sources of my day-by-day anxiety because I've got a JD and got myself all filled up with idealism about the sanctity of our judiciary and the importance of lifetime appointments to remove political bias and other bullshit, but I never took much time to actually study how appointments go in real-world terms. How much can/should we expect this court-packing to continue or accelerate given that in more than a calendar year there have "only," been 18 appointments (not counting Gorsuch) and that the current queue is "only," 6/15 and 34/140? Given the current year was already a historic high-point of confirmations, do we really need to fear they're going to try to more-than-double that in Year 2 to get that entire list done before there is any risk of losing the Senate? Or that their goal might be to fill the entire list of vacancies before 2020 despite that it would be absurdly beyond precedent?

I mean, I know the obvious answer would be to never assume the Republican Party can stoop no lower, but still, contemplating the absolute worst case scenario has literally made me lose sleep, so it would be nice to hear it's not as bleak as it seems on this front at least.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

If you cannot sleep I suggest exercising for 45 minutes or longer every day. It's really helped me out with the sleeping. With the magic of cell phones you can even shitpost from your exercise machine of choice.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Sanguinia posted:

Realtalk question: the judge thing is probably one of the single biggest sources of my day-by-day anxiety because I've got a JD and got myself all filled up with idealism about the sanctity of our judiciary and the importance of lifetime appointments to remove political bias and other bullshit, but I never took much time to actually study how appointments go in real-world terms. How much can/should we expect this court-packing to continue or accelerate given that in more than a calendar year there have "only," been 18 appointments (not counting Gorsuch) and that the current queue is "only," 6/15 and 34/140? Given the current year was already a historic high-point of confirmations, do we really need to fear they're going to try to more-than-double that in Year 2 to get that entire list done before there is any risk of losing the Senate? Or that their goal might be to fill the entire list of vacancies before 2020 despite that it would be absurdly beyond precedent?

I mean, I know the obvious answer would be to never assume the Republican Party can stoop no lower, but still, contemplating the absolute worst case scenario has literally made me lose sleep, so it would be nice to hear it's not as bleak as it seems on this front at least.

Life time appointments are extremely dumb. That is why they're pushing for SC justices in their 40s and 50s and Federal Judges in their 30s.

They want guys who will rule from the bench for the next 60 years.

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

Sanguinia posted:

Realtalk question: the judge thing is probably one of the single biggest sources of my day-by-day anxiety because I've got a JD and got myself all filled up with idealism about the sanctity of our judiciary and the importance of lifetime appointments to remove political bias and other bullshit, but I never took much time to actually study how appointments go in real-world terms. How much can/should we expect this court-packing to continue or accelerate given that in more than a calendar year there have "only," been 18 appointments (not counting Gorsuch) and that the current queue is "only," 6/15 and 34/140? Given the current year was already a historic high-point of confirmations, do we really need to fear they're going to try to more-than-double that in Year 2 to get that entire list done before there is any risk of losing the Senate? Or that their goal might be to fill the entire list of vacancies before 2020 despite that it would be absurdly beyond precedent?

I mean, I know the obvious answer would be to never assume the Republican Party can stoop no lower, but still, contemplating the absolute worst case scenario has literally made me lose sleep, so it would be nice to hear it's not as bleak as it seems on this front at least.
The courts should be in thrall to the will of the people just the same as the rest of the government. A Democratic Congress ought to redistrict the entire extant federal judiciary to cover a single acre in the Alaskan wilderness, force Donald Trump and his family to live there with no electricity or running water (kerosene heaters are okay), and completely remake the courts.

Also, yes, of course the worst case scenario is highly probable and perhaps even likely - haven't you been paying any attention?

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Sanguinia posted:

Realtalk question: the judge thing is probably one of the single biggest sources of my day-by-day anxiety because I've got a JD and got myself all filled up with idealism about the sanctity of our judiciary and the importance of lifetime appointments to remove political bias and other bullshit, but I never took much time to actually study how appointments go in real-world terms. How much can/should we expect this court-packing to continue or accelerate given that in more than a calendar year there have "only," been 18 appointments (not counting Gorsuch) and that the current queue is "only," 6/15 and 34/140? Given the current year was already a historic high-point of confirmations, do we really need to fear they're going to try to more-than-double that in Year 2 to get that entire list done before there is any risk of losing the Senate? Or that their goal might be to fill the entire list of vacancies before 2020 despite that it would be absurdly beyond precedent?

I mean, I know the obvious answer would be to never assume the Republican Party can stoop no lower, but still, contemplating the absolute worst case scenario has literally made me lose sleep, so it would be nice to hear it's not as bleak as it seems on this front at least.
If it's any comfort, "Appointed by the Trump Administration" will probably take on the same connotation that Fox News pretends "Appointed by the Obama Administration" does, especially because so many Liberty University grads that have been "waiting their turn" will be put in place under that tag.

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

Evil Fluffy posted:


If the Dems take the Senate they'd better not confirm a single loving nominee of Trump's. Not that there will be any vacancies because the GOP's going to fill them all by then one way or the other.

2019: "We can't confirm a Supreme Court justice while the president is under impeachment proceedings."

2020: "We can't confirm a Supreme Court justice in the last year of a term. Let's let the people decide."

i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

Grapplejack posted:

Hey so uh can we talk about something real quick

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html


Did the NYT just confirm that we have alien weaponry and alloys hanging around

There was a moment during the election when Hillary mentioned UFO stuff.

Petr
Oct 3, 2000
I'm worried a lot of people here are gonna get broke-brained when Trump is never impeached.

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

Harik posted:

Is there a tax plan calculator that takes EITC/ATC into account? Because for basically the entire population of low-income families with children it just says "0" instead of the correct negative amount.

... if it's actually 0 then my taxes went up by 7 grand a year.

There are some notes in section 14 paragraph 88 that states: "BOOTSTRAPS!!!"

radicaldreamer
May 14, 2013

I kind of wonder if this is just electoral triangulation in action. UFO buffs, the Coast 2 Coast AM crowd is a large swing demographic and both Trump (Cruz's dad was JFK's assassin) and Hillary courted them in minor ways.

Petr
Oct 3, 2000
Oh, cool.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/19/health/lethal-viruses-nih.html

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

Petr posted:

I'm worried a lot of people here are gonna get broke-brained when Trump is never impeached.

Most of the people here are already broke brains so it won't be much of a change.

Besides, Trump would resign in success before he would let himself be truely impeached.

Synthbuttrange
May 6, 2007


https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/943334420693635073

Jesus. This is the worst timeline

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Petr posted:

I'm worried a lot of people here are gonna get broke-brained when Trump is never impeached.

Right he's gonna get booted out by millions of milennials.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/joshuamound/status/943329541564633088

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004





Trump would walk right in there without a hazmat suit bragging about making viruses great again.

Petr
Oct 3, 2000
We need to get Pence to do a tour of that lab

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

Serfer posted:

bribery, the coolest of crimes

It's not bribery if it's political donations or tax cuts designed to benefit specific individuals. Apparently.

Just like it's not murder if you kill children by defunding their health insurance. Just the hard facts of life, money doesn't grow on trees unless you were born with a money tree up your rear end.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

It was a bad ban that hit very clearly legitimate research and needed to be reversed. Like it’s a ban that sounds good if you think of mad scientists sitting and cooking up ultra super weapons but really it ended up banning dull medical research on gene expression.

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Y'all remember when they found small pox in some old lab freezer a while back? Man good times!

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

Petr posted:

I'm worried a lot of people here are gonna get broke-brained when Trump is never impeached.

poo poo, we've been broke brained since Nov. 9th, 2016. You need to catch the gently caress up.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/943355364761841665

Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


Bicyclops posted:

I have a bottle of pretty nice scotch that I've been saving for celebration specifically if Charlie Baker loses, despite how fun it has been watching him continuously crush his own balls trying to straddle the fence.

Yeah, uh, might want to reassign that bottle. Baker will win handily.

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

gently caress Pence and the horse that rode in on him!

GeekyManatee
Jul 12, 2011


Tax bill passed. Time to drink and forget.

Petr
Oct 3, 2000
Welp, that's it.

RIP western democracy

empty whippet box
Jun 9, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
When the dems retake power they better do exactly what Trump is doing to everything Obama did, but in reverse and also to everything they did. They won't, because they're democrats, but they should.

Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


Well, at least this is all they can do legislatively until late next year.

Lemon King
Oct 4, 2009

im nt posting wif a mark on my head


Gotta post the video too.
https://twitter.com/amplifirenews_/status/943354850271793152

ElrondHubbard
Sep 14, 2007


That sort of research will help us proactively screen for, target, and maybe even begin developing vaccines for epidemics like ebola to help decrease the amount of collective pain and suffering experienced when they occur. It's incredibly valuable and is much better than our current approach of: scramble at the last minute and throw money haphazardly at a dart board hoping for the best.

SeANMcBAY
Jun 28, 2006

Look on the bright side.



empty whippet box posted:

When the dems retake power they better do exactly what Trump is doing to everything Obama did, but in reverse and also to everything they did. They won't, because they're democrats, but they should.

This needs to stay an issue for when dems are in power again. We can’t let them be like how Obama was on the Bush tax cuts.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/943288488249749504

quote:

A pivotal moment in the Republican party’s drive for tax overhaul legislation came in September, when two GOP senators agreed that tax cuts could add $1.5 trillion to deficits over 10 years, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday.

But that compromise meant McConnell had to abandon his earlier position that tax cuts shouldn’t add to the nation’s “alarming” level of debt.

“Without that there would’ve been no tax bill,” the Kentucky Republican said in an interview, referring to a bargain struck between GOP senators Bob Corker of Tennessee and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania over the size of the tax cut package.

The concession on deficit-busting cuts, along with lessons learned from the GOP’s embarrassing failure to repeal and replace the 2010 Affordable Care Act, helped McConnell get the party within striking distance of its first major legislative victory this year.

The Senate is poised to approve the final version of the tax bill Tuesday night. Following a procedural hiccup, the legislation will head back to the House on Wednesday for a final vote that’s expected to send it to President Donald Trump.

‘Rubik’s Cube’

To keep his caucus informed of a complex and fast-moving tax plan, McConnell said he delegated the responsibility of providing regular updates to a cadre of Senate Finance Committee members. Toomey, along with Tim Scott of South Carolina, Rob Portman of Ohio and John Thune of South Dakota were responsible for explaining the bill’s provisions to Republican senators in groups of five at a time.

“The reason that was important, frankly, is by the time they were voted out of committee there was a high level of awareness among our members of what was in it,” McConnell said of the bill. “So they didn’t feel like they were surprised. So once it came out of committee we had pretty large percentage of our members who were comfortable with it.”

To win over the last few needed votes, tax writers made some tweaks, he said. “There was some twisting of the Rubik’s Cube right at the end."

And when it came to courting senators whose support was in question, McConnell was able to offer them sweeteners that he wasn’t able to do as easily in the health-care bill -- the core of which was stripping federal subsidies to buy coverage.

Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski received an add-on to open up part of the ANWR to oil drilling, a career-long goal for her. Arizona’s John McCain got the “regular order” committee process he had demanded. Maine’s Susan Collins got an expanded medical-expense deduction, albeit a temporary one, in addition to the preservation of individuals’ state and local tax deductions under a $10,000 cap and an agreement from McConnell to back legislation that would stabilize health-insurance markets.

‘Scary Moments’

"It was also, I thought, extremely important to get Susan Collins on board,” McConnell said. “She represents kind of the left end of our conference. Susan was a tough negotiator but reasonable. She wanted to get to yes, and she did.”

Generally, he said: “We had scary moments along the way, we always do with this kind of margin.”

Ironically, even though the Senate wasn’t able to repeal Obamacare, once the repeal of the individual mandate penalty -- a cornerstone of the ACA -- was included in the tax legislation, it helped to bolster support, McConnell said.

“It’s not a total replacement, but it takes the heart out of Obamacare," McConnell said, echoing economists who argue that the law may be unsustainable without a mechanism to force healthy people into the marketplaces to hold down costs.

McConnell also attributed success on the tax bill to the fact that GOP senators were more energized about it than they ever were about health care. “I’ve often described the health care meetings as somewhat akin to getting a root canal,” he quipped.

And McConnell, showing his characteristic tendency not to over-promise, wouldn’t say if the tax success could be replicated with other items on the GOP agenda in 2018, such as infrastructure, welfare cuts or an overhaul of social safety-net programs.

"We’ll talk about next year, next year," he said.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

empty whippet box posted:

When the dems retake power they better do exactly what Trump is doing to everything Obama did, but in reverse and also to everything they did. They won't, because they're democrats, but they should.

Agreed. And there will of course be the people who will object and say that we should hold ourselves above the GOP and that if we mirror their behavior we become no better - to that I'd say that first, seizing power for the clear betterment of the people is an obvious moral good, and long-term the only thing that is going to prevent this kind of psychotic government from becoming a regular fixture in American government is if all sides experience the downsides of permitting it to happen, and therefore have a common cause in establishing rules for preventing it happening again.

Withnail
Feb 11, 2004
what are the chances Paul Ryan does a mic drop and takes some cushy job from someone he just handed over billions to

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках

Withnail posted:

what are the chances Paul Ryan does a mic drop and takes some cushy job from someone he just handed over billions to

Roughly 100% if it looks like a Dem wave is coming.

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Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.
Trump is really about to be the King of Debt.

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