Photex posted:

Guys it's only the fifth 30% adjustment relax.

poverty goat posted:

now is the time to buy before it hits 50k in january

but unironically

paternity suitor posted:

mbisonyes.gif

bvj191jgl7bBsqF5m posted:

poverty goat posted:

now is the time to buy before it hits 50k in january

but unironically

Alpha Mayo posted:

I hope Bitcoin ends with a negative value

EorayMel posted:

293,756(and counting!) unconfirmed transactions and apparently the average fee is 40 dollars per transaction?

Moxxis Endowment posted:

I don't know about average, but that's the fee you've gotta pay if you want to see your transaction go through in any reasonable amount of time.

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

Bubbles don't actually need reasons to burst, they just do sometimes when the investor mix gets toxic. Hyman Minsky has some good books on this topic, under his Financial Instability Hypothesis. That classic panic chart comes from Charles Kindelberger, a colleague and admirer of Minsky's work. Basically, at first there are just true believers, then the "institutional" or hedge investors come along looking for something that could provide good value or even modest growth, then come the speculators, and finally the Ponzis.

A healthy financial market or asset is a mix of investor types dominated by Hedge investors, those who are not over leveraged and have enough return to cover interest and principal if they do borrow, and enough cash to be patient with price movements. Speculative investors leverage to buy into the asset and their return is enough to cover interest, but not principal, and they are counting on price increases so they can sell to the next sucker and get out. Ponzi investors are so leveraged they can't pay interest or principal, and they desperately need the price to go up uP UP or they go bust. Obviously, Ponzi investors go belly up if there is any price setback at all, and price setbacks can occur for any number of reasons or no reason at all beyond people "feeling" that the asset isn't worth the price anymore and refusing to buy at the offered price.

When your market or asset has mostly Hedge investors, a price setback is no big problem, and there won't be a major selloff or major debt defaulting, because those investors are still able to cover whatever leverage they have, if any. If the asset is mostly Speculators there will be more pain in a price setback, but those investors can at least cover interest on leverage, and hedge investor presence of sufficient size can help stop the bleeding once it reaches bargain prices. When your asset is mostly Ponzi, however, the price setback triggers a panic, because Ponzi investors are leveraged to the hilt and can't pay any of their leverage. Ponzi investors sell off and default on their debts, which starts cascading through the system. Hedge investors and institutional lenders who provided the leverage to Ponzi and Speculative investors get crushed by defaults and they too start selling off to cover their asses.

That's it in a nutshell. The most inevitable process in financial capitalism.

Mr Teatime posted:

In further news coinbase is still holding much of my money hostage in its fiat interrogation room, this is both good and normal and coinbase is a good site for the canny investor.

CassandraZara posted:

Great post, I'll check out the Minsky book.

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

We have a ton of great examples of Ponzi investors shared in this thread. Even small timers like the idiot who used his mortgage as leverage (a HELOC? A personal loan secured by his house?) to buy BTC. Now, he's belly up on his investment and if he sells off he can't pay back the loan, and probably doesn't have the cash to pay it off either because he just lost it all in a BTC fire. So, he's stuck paying off that debt in addition to his existing mortgage, and if he doesn't make enough money he's going to default on both. In this roundabout way, Wells Fargo or whoever else is gonna get hosed by a BTC related debt deflation, which is hilarious on a small scale, but loving horrifying if it happens on a large scale.

Toys For rear end Bum posted:

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/944241477881823236

CassandraZara posted:

One of my favorite authors is William Poundstone, who doesn't write so much about finance as he does about quirks in various systems, and a lot of what you wrote sounds a lot like what he writes about the difference between active investors and passive investors.

down n out posted:

But..but..the tether printer was running at full speed

quote:

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Grand Theft Autobot posted:

Bubbles don't actually need reasons to burst, they just do sometimes when the investor mix gets toxic. Hyman Minsky has some good books on this topic, under his Financial Instability Hypothesis. That classic panic chart comes from Charles Kindelberger, a colleague and admirer of Minsky's work. Basically, at first there are just true believers, then the "institutional" or hedge investors come along looking for something that could provide good value or even modest growth, then come the speculators, and finally the Ponzis.

A healthy financial market or asset is a mix of investor types dominated by Hedge investors, those who are not over leveraged and have enough return to cover interest and principal if they do borrow, and enough cash to be patient with price movements. Speculative investors leverage to buy into the asset and their return is enough to cover interest, but not principal, and they are counting on price increases so they can sell to the next sucker and get out. Ponzi investors are so leveraged they can't pay interest or principal, and they desperately need the price to go up uP UP or they go bust. Obviously, Ponzi investors go belly up if there is any price setback at all, and price setbacks can occur for any number of reasons or no reason at all beyond people "feeling" that the asset isn't worth the price anymore and refusing to buy at the offered price.

When your market or asset has mostly Hedge investors, a price setback is no big problem, and there won't be a major selloff or major debt defaulting, because those investors are still able to cover whatever leverage they have, if any. If the asset is mostly Speculators there will be more pain in a price setback, but those investors can at least cover interest on leverage, and hedge investor presence of sufficient size can help stop the bleeding once it reaches bargain prices. When your asset is mostly Ponzi, however, the price setback triggers a panic, because Ponzi investors are leveraged to the hilt and can't pay any of their leverage. Ponzi investors sell off and default on their debts, which starts cascading through the system. Hedge investors and institutional lenders who provided the leverage to Ponzi and Speculative investors get crushed by defaults and they too start selling off to cover their asses.

That's it in a nutshell. The most inevitable process in financial capitalism.