2017 AFC North: lamar Jackson own zone

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Which team will take the division in 2017 This poll is closed.
Pittsburgh Steelers	38	27.54%
Baltimore Ravens	20	14.49%
Cincinnati Bengals	13	9.42%
Yeah just kidding, it'll be one of the other 3	67	48.55%
Total:	138 votes

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Flikken: Oct 23, 2009; 10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

Ches Neckbeard posted:

Under. He and Britt are going to gently caress off bar hopping before a game and other substances will be offered.

Gonna bet Josh isn't allowed to drink

# ? Nov 4, 2017 23:39

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# ? May 10, 2024 01:51

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

I belive in the dream!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-news-browns-your-chances-of-making-the-playoffs-are-only-1-in-19-quintillion/

quote:

Good News, Browns: Your Chances Of Making The Playoffs Are 1 In 19 Quintillion

The 19,649,922,085,696,900,000-1 dream is alive in Cleveland.

For a brief moment there on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns� 2017 season appeared to be lost. The team was defeated by the Jacksonville Jaguars, moving its record to 0-10. Considering that no team has ever made the NFL playoffs with 10 losses, the result seemed to dash any remaining hope in Cleveland that the Browns would make a run.

Or did it?

It turns out, thanks to the assiduous investigations of a Redditor who goes by MrMolonLabe, the Browns are still in this thing: Provided that 46 different games go their way � including two ties � a hypothetical 6-10 Cleveland Browns can be the second AFC wild card team.

It�s all rather simple. First, Cleveland wins out � that�s the easy part.1

Then the Browns need the following: Week 12 wins from Kansas City, Tennessee, New England, Houston, Dallas and Carolina; Week 13 wins from New England, Denver, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Detroit and the Giants; Week 14 wins from Indianapolis, the Jets, Kansas City, New England, Chicago, Washington and San Francisco; Week 15 wins from Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Minnesota and Dallas; Week 16 wins for Baltimore, Kansas City, San Diego, New England, Pittsburgh and Washington; and Week 17 wins for Kansas City, Indianapolis, New England and Cincinnati. Also, the Broncos and Raiders need to tie in Week 12, and the Bills and Dolphins need to tie in Week 17.

If all this happens, there would be four AFC teams with a record of 5-10-1 and five more at 5-11. The Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs and Titans would win their respective divisions, and the Jaguars would get the first wild card at 12-4. That leaves the Ravens and Browns tied for the last spot at 6-10. The Browns would win the tiebreaker because their Week 15 win over Baltimore would split the season series, and Cleveland would have a better record in the division.

Luckily, we happen to have forecasts for each of those games and can assign a probability for each of those discrete events based on each team�s current Elo rating.2

Here�s how it shakes out:

Some are trickier than others: Elo can�t tell us the probability that a given NFL game will end in a tie because most NFL games do not end in ties. For that, we�ll need a better estimate: There have been 5 ties since 2012 over 1,440 games played,3 giving us a back-of-the-napkin probability of a specific game going to a tie as 0.35 percent, a rate of about 1 tie every 288 games.

Let�s set aside Cleveland�s two needed ties for a moment. Multiplying the Elo probability that each game breaks the Browns� way, we anticipate there is a 1 in 238,559,677,617,755 chance that they will get that sixth wild card slot. The probability of having two specific selected games tie is a 1 in 82,369 chance. Combining those two chances, we anticipate that the Cleveland Browns have a 1 in 19,649,922,085,696,900,000 � that is 19.6 quintillion � chance of making the playoffs.

More to the point, the Browns have a probability of 32 percent to go 0-16 this year. But hey, anything is possible.

# ? Nov 23, 2017 01:30

Bigass Moth: Mar 6, 2004; I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.

he knows...

Browns
Super bowl
Book it

# ? Nov 23, 2017 02:14

Fifty Three: Oct 29, 2007

I would be legitimately happy if the Browns made it to the playoffs, just for the chaos.

# ? Nov 23, 2017 16:21

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

If the Browns made the playoffs, I'd say drat. They done it

# ? Nov 23, 2017 18:07

Happy Noodle Boy: Jul 3, 2002

I�ve been telling you guys Browns in the playoff all year. Who�s laughing now?????

# ? Nov 23, 2017 23:00

Flikken: Oct 23, 2009; 10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

Bigass Moth posted:

Browns
Super bowl
Book it

Chargers beat Dallas, the dream is dead.

# ? Nov 24, 2017 17:00

Henrik Zetterberg: Dec 7, 2007

Gordon is back this weekend y'all.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21589943/cleveland-browns-plan-play-josh-gordon-much-handle

# ? Nov 28, 2017 00:07

Happy Noodle Boy: Jul 3, 2002

Henrik Zetterberg posted:

Gordon is back this weekend y'all.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21589943/cleveland-browns-plan-play-josh-gordon-much-handle

Going to laugh real hard if he carries the team to a win or 5.

# ? Nov 28, 2017 00:24

Oberst: May 24, 2010; Fertilizing threads since 2010

welcome your 2017 afc #6 seed 9-7 Baltimore ravens

# ? Dec 4, 2017 00:47

Chris James 2: Aug 9, 2012

now that's paper

# ? Dec 4, 2017 00:59

Oberst: May 24, 2010; Fertilizing threads since 2010

lmao burfict hits are baby taps compared to juju attack

# ? Dec 6, 2017 04:40

Tibalt: May 14, 2017; What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

I got tickets to the Steelers - Ravens game. I'm pretty excited.

Hopefully nobody pulls off their shoe and tries to stab an opposing player with their cleat or anything.

# ? Dec 6, 2017 06:20

Happy Noodle Boy: Jul 3, 2002

Browns are going to end up winning after the other 3 teams finish killing each other.

# ? Dec 6, 2017 06:29

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

Harbaugh proving himself to be a galactic brained super genius. Everyone worth killing on the Ravens is already dead.

# ? Dec 6, 2017 10:13

Pops Mgee: Aug 20, 2009; People all over the world,
Join Hands,
Start the Love Train!

Hey y'all I'm coming into town for the Packers Browns game. Anything I should know about the stadium/tailgating? I know at Lambeau you basically have to use the lots around the stadium that aren't affiliated with the stadium because you need a pass to use the official lot. Is it a similar situation in Cleveland?

# ? Dec 8, 2017 10:23

Flikken: Oct 23, 2009; 10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

Pops Mgee posted:

Hey y'all I'm coming into town for the Packers Browns game. Anything I should know about the stadium/tailgating? I know at Lambeau you basically have to use the lots around the stadium that aren't affiliated with the stadium because you need a pass to use the official lot. Is it a similar situation in Cleveland?

Using the muni lot is fine.

# ? Dec 8, 2017 11:36

Pops Mgee: Aug 20, 2009; People all over the world,
Join Hands,
Start the Love Train!

Flikken posted:

Using the muni lot is fine.

I saw that there's technically no alcohol allowed in the lot but apparently it's not enforced. Also apparently only propane grills are allowed and not charcoal grills. Is that also not really enforced, or am I hosed if I don't have propane and propane accessories?

# ? Dec 8, 2017 17:18

Flikken: Oct 23, 2009; 10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

Pops Mgee posted:

I saw that there's technically no alcohol allowed in the lot but apparently it's not enforced. Also apparently only propane grills are allowed and not charcoal grills. Is that also not really enforced, or am I hosed if I don't have propane and propane accessories?

Not sure on the grill thing but pour your booze into a red solo cup. Do NOT openly drink from the original container, that will draw the fuzz.

# ? Dec 8, 2017 18:19

Pops Mgee: Aug 20, 2009; People all over the world,
Join Hands,
Start the Love Train!

Flikken posted:

Not sure on the grill thing but pour your booze into a red solo cup. Do NOT openly drink from the original container, that will draw the fuzz.

Huh that�s kinda weird but good to know. Thanks.

# ? Dec 8, 2017 19:00

say no to bats: Aug 15, 2001; Rumblee tumblee, climin' a hunny tree

Pops Mgee posted:

Huh that’s kinda weird but good to know. Thanks.

And yet you can have several dozen guys at anyone time pissing thru the chain link fence as the rapid train full of people getting off at the stadium passes by and the police dont care.

# ? Dec 8, 2017 21:42

Sash!: Mar 16, 2001

say no to bats posted:

And yet you can have several dozen guys at anyone time pissing thru the chain link fence as the rapid train full of people getting off at the stadium passes by and the police dont care.

Literally seeing a hot stream of piss just puts you into the right mood for what you're about to witness inside, which is a metaphorical hot stream of piss, so its very poetic.

# ? Dec 9, 2017 01:30

D-LINK: Oct 1, 2007; I was talking to peachy Peach about kissy Kiss. He bought me a soda.

gently caress the Ravens inshalla

# ? Dec 11, 2017 06:01

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

Are there any clock towers overlooking the Steelers practice facility? Asking for a friend.

She wants to remember the precise second her eyes perceive the eminent visage of Antonio Brown, god's perfect creation blessed with the inimitable ability to push dudes.

# ? Dec 12, 2017 07:00

Barreft: Jul 21, 2014

Pats are gonna skullfuck the Steelers after that loss. gently caress.

# ? Dec 12, 2017 07:56

SLOSifl: Aug 10, 2002

Barreft posted:

Pats are gonna skullfuck the Steelers after that loss. gently caress.

My hope lies in that the last four games were crazy as poo poo so no reason we can�t beat the Pats. I�m just glad it�s not prime time for once so i can go to sleep sober.

# ? Dec 16, 2017 06:13

Oberst: May 24, 2010; Fertilizing threads since 2010

Welcome your 2017 AFC #5 seed 10-6 Ravens

# ? Dec 22, 2017 02:32

Despera: Jun 6, 2011

guess what team in the division has the most points scored? hint its not the browns

# ? Dec 22, 2017 08:43

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

The Browns

# ? Dec 22, 2017 09:02

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

Gotta admit that the Ravens coaches turning that pile of corrupted flesh into a respectable O-line is drat impressive. Still think we might get beat by the Bengals.

# ? Dec 22, 2017 09:09

a patagonian cavy: Jan 12, 2009; UUA CVG 230000 KZID /RM TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE BENGALS DYNASTY

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Gotta admit that the Ravens coaches turning that pile of corrupted flesh into a respectable O-line is drat impressive. Still think we might get beat by the Bengals.

the bengals have fully given up fyi

# ? Dec 22, 2017 15:33

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

I know this and stand by my statement.

# ? Dec 22, 2017 15:39

GOOD TIMES ON METH: Mar 17, 2006; Fun Shoe

The Bengals also I think now have their top 3 OTs out for the year and will likely be starting practice squad guys or old rear end Eric Winston at both spots.

# ? Dec 22, 2017 19:51

sharknado slashfic: Jun 24, 2011

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Gotta admit that the Ravens coaches turning that pile of corrupted flesh into a respectable O-line is drat impressive. Still think we might get beat by the Bengals.

I'm entirely torn between giving them credit for somehow making this a respectable season and also wanting them gone (Oz and company) for having us in a position to be this broken in the first place. However I'm starting to lean toward the rumors of Joe's back finally being right and that's why they've been opening things up the last few weeks and he's playing decently, especially considering what he's working with. I was Full Kawalimus like 5 weeks ago but I think they've bought themselves another year, although I still think it's time for Oz to hang em up and see what DeCosta has.

Even when they're actually good the Ravens love to play down to their opponents so I could see a flukey loss to a Bengals team that's being kept alive by an iron lung.

# ? Dec 22, 2017 20:52