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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 16 days!)

it’s cool that we’re trying to develop tactical bikes again, which are weapons that could only ever be used against massed formations of armor and infantry to be worthwhile.

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Comrayn
Jul 22, 2008
is that like a camo bike or black with a sick red racing stripe or what

Lightning Lord
Feb 21, 2013

$200 a day, plus expenses

Comrayn posted:

is that like a camo bike or black with a sick red racing stripe or what

It's Kaneda's bike

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 16 days!)

I dunno how nukes autocorrected to bikes, but ok.

basically, by developing “usable” nuclear weapons they’re signaling that they plan on going to war with another conventional military power.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
we cannot allow a bike gap

Prav
Oct 29, 2011

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

I dunno how nukes autocorrected to bikes, but ok.

basically, by developing “usable” nuclear weapons they’re signaling that they plan on going to war with another conventional military power.

they probably just realized that the us can't actually do peer warfare with conventional weapons

Michael Bayleaf
Jun 4, 2006

Tortured By Flan
tactical bikes that take out tank formations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpH1yMGxh5E

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
The whole point of banning tactical nukes is that they're too great a threat in escalating into a total nuclear war

Its the same reason icbms don't have an 'off' switch, because as soon as you hit the button, you're committed, the sequence cannot be stopped

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
THAT'S NOT HOW MAD WORKS YOU IDIOTS

HAS EVERYONE FORGOTTEN BASIC GAME THEORY

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer

Michael Bayleaf posted:

tactical bikes that take out tank formations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpH1yMGxh5E

Ah yes, the alternate reality movie where the Confederacy and the United States team up to blow Middle-Eastern-Latin-American-North-African-Communist-Something US M-60 tanks.

bump_fn
Apr 12, 2004

two of them

rudatron posted:

THAT'S NOT HOW MAD WORKS YOU IDIOTS

HAS EVERYONE FORGOTTEN BASIC GAME THEORY

somewhere in an amphetamine fueled haze eric garland gets a semi

Communist Thoughts
Jan 7, 2008

Our war against free speech cannot end until we silence this bronze beast!


How do the expect nk to react to having a bloody nose

Wtf are they thinking

South Korea is lovely :( good food, people, film, sights...
Pls rebel against your mushhead prez, an actually pr decent country is gonna get killed..you guys have guns right?

bump_fn
Apr 12, 2004

two of them
isnt porn illegal in SK tho

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 16 days!)

that would explain why korean MMOs are all so insanely horny

Communist Thoughts
Jan 7, 2008

Our war against free speech cannot end until we silence this bronze beast!


they gave us Old Boy and I Saw the Devil though, whereas America gave us Ironman 3

so its pretty obvious we should be rooting for a swift and terrible defeat for the USA fast enough that Seoul is unharmed

Taintrunner
Apr 10, 2017

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

bump_fn posted:

isnt porn illegal in SK tho

they have like “BJs” that are broadcast jockeys on video streaming that are basically camgirls but they don’t show everything

that’s about all I know

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016

rudatron posted:

The whole point of banning tactical nukes is that they're too great a threat in escalating into a total nuclear war

Its the same reason icbms don't have an 'off' switch, because as soon as you hit the button, you're committed, the sequence cannot be stopped

🇷🇺:byodood:🇷🇺 ESCALATE TO DE-ESCALATE 🇷🇺:byodood:🇷🇺

https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/951016009741123584

https://twitter.com/annafifield/status/951036176017715200

Laphroaig
Feb 6, 2004

Drinking Smoke
Dinosaur Gum

Cheng is making fun of the KCNA just making poo poo up

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006

rudatron posted:

THAT'S NOT HOW MAD WORKS YOU IDIOTS

HAS EVERYONE FORGOTTEN BASIC GAME THEORY

forgotten? what in these folks circumstances would compel them to learn game theory in some fashion?

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

rudatron posted:

THAT'S NOT HOW MAD WORKS YOU IDIOTS

HAS EVERYONE FORGOTTEN BASIC GAME THEORY

The idea is that as long as the strike doesn't threaten the Kim Regime's existence they can get away with it outside MAD because retaliation would still be much worse for them.

Comrayn
Jul 22, 2008
trump is waiting for the olympics to start before launch for maximum drama. that’s just good tv baby

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.
The problems are

1. It almost by definition couldn't accomplish anything and
2. It could be mistaken for the opening salvo of an existence-threatening offensive (not unreasonably)

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy

Jeb! Repetition posted:

The idea is that as long as the strike doesn't threaten the Kim Regime's existence they can get away with it outside MAD because retaliation would still be much worse for them.
NO NO NO NO NO

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
the whole idea behind MAD is that a strike is always retaliated with. You have to demonstrate both the willingness and the ability to to strike back, at least proportionally. The instant you don't retaliate, is the instant you've demonstrated that you're showing you're not committed to MAD, which would only encourage further strikes.

Therefore, any nuclear strike on your territory must be responded to, at least proportionally, or the entire logic of MAD falls apart.

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

rudatron posted:

the whole idea behind MAD is that a strike is always retaliated with. You have to demonstrate both the willingness and the ability to to strike back, at least proportionally. The instant you don't retaliate, is the instant you've demonstrated that you're showing you're not committed to MAD, which would only encourage further strikes.

Therefore, any nuclear strike on your territory must be responded to, at least proportionally, or the entire logic of MAD falls apart.

i think the deviation from the normal here is that NK doesn't actually have the AD part down yet, they only have a few nukes and can't actually end the world, so there's a certain insane logic to the reasoning

presumably NK would be free to retaliate conventionally and not trigger our MAD response though

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe
i mean, normally this kind of thing is discussed over diplomatic channels by serious men on both sides who calculate each response carefully, rather than being led by the random tweets of an angry sundowning idiot, so who knows what would trigger our MAD response or not

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
whether you have one or one million nukes, the logic doesn't change. in the case of one, you simply need to make it as destructive as possible, and not waste it. but you always have to retaliate, and the instant you don't, is the instant you're dead anyway.

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

rudatron posted:

whether you have one or one million nukes, the logic doesn't change. in the case of one, you simply need to make it as destructive as possible, and not waste it. but you always have to retaliate, and the instant you don't, is the instant you're dead anyway.

this would be true in the case of an american all-out first strike, which isn't going to happen

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
no, you're not following the logic here

the assumption behind MAD, is 'if we are attacked, we will retaliate'

that's an assumption, and the other player has to believe it

if you are attacked, and don't retaliate, you're undermining that assumption

meaning that other player doesn't believe it

meaning they are free to launch an all out attack, because they believe you won't retaliate

therefore, in order to prevent that, you have to retaliate against any attack

so that they believe you

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
so if the US does any nuclear attack, and you only have one bomb, you're best bet is to just throw it an NY, because you are dead anyway, so you may as well kill as many as possible

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



If america goes in, it'll be all in. I cant see any sort of tactilol strike against NK hedging their bets that Kim wont retaliate. Kim has to retaliate if there is a direct attack by the US/Japan regardless of the severity of it

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

rudatron posted:

no, you're not following the logic here

the assumption behind MAD, is 'if we are attacked, we will retaliate'

that's an assumption, and the other player has to believe it

if you are attacked, and don't retaliate, you're undermining that assumption

meaning that other player doesn't believe it

meaning they are free to launch an all out attack, because they believe you won't retaliate

therefore, in order to prevent that, you have to retaliate against any attack

so that they believe you

but the us logic is that "they probably won't retaliate with nukes if we only punch them here and here and here" so clearly the us believes NK is still deterred enough by actual MAD to not start it

and again, it's not MAD if one side can only assure the destruction of one or two cities

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe
retaliation would be suicide when you only have one bomb

it's like that classic cop scenario where there's 15 swat guys with rifles on someone and the victim decides to "reach for his waistband"

nobody's going to commit suicide because "well MAD logic dictates that i kill my country now"

there's such a thing as a bluff

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
whether or not the US acts rationally, doesn't change the rational course of action for the other player, in this case NK - if the US is committed to launching a nuclear attack, then you are still committed to retaliating, because again, you are dead anyway, so you may as well kill as many of the other side as possible, so they can go to hell with you

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



Duscat posted:

retaliation would be suicide when you only have one bomb

it's like that classic cop scenario where there's 15 swat guys with rifles on you and the victim decides to "reach for his waistband"

nobody's going to commit suicide because "well MAD logic dictates that i kill my country now"

there's such a thing as a bluff

ITS SUICIDE REGARDLESS

If you loving hate your enemy and he pre-empts you and you dont use all your force you will only be attacked again and again until there isn't anything left!

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
do you understand why nuclear deterrence works in the first place? game theory is actually counter-intuitive, but it's a vital part of nuclear strategy, and if you don't get your head around it, you won't really understand what 'nuclear deterrence' actually means.

you aren't just responding to the immediate situation, but the situation that follows after - you are just thinking about your enemy, you're also thinking about what you enemy thinks about you - and what your enemy, thinks about you, thinking about your enemy, and so on ad infinitum.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

rudatron posted:

whether or not the US acts rationally, doesn't change the rational course of action for the other player, in this case NK - if the US is committed to launching a nuclear attack, then you are still committed to retaliating, because again, you are dead anyway, so you may as well kill as many of the other side as possible, so they can go to hell with you
that's true but in this case the US is considering a non-nuclear attack. big difference.

though it begs the question why the US is now suddenly not so worried about north korea's conventional deterrence; white house full of morons etc.

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

rudatron posted:

whether or not the US acts rationally, doesn't change the rational course of action for the other player, in this case NK - if the US is committed to launching a nuclear attack, then you are still committed to retaliating, because again, you are dead anyway, so you may as well kill as many of the other side as possible, so they can go to hell with you

yes, again, if it's an all-in nuclear first strike aimed at completely incapacitating your strike back ability

that's not what's being talked about though, the US plan is some retarded "bloody nose" strike, which, stupid as it is, is being planned as specifically not triggering all-out retaliation by the norks

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

rudatron posted:

do you understand why nuclear deterrence works in the first place? game theory is actually counter-intuitive, but it's a vital part of nuclear strategy, and if you don't get your head around it, you won't really understand what 'nuclear deterrence' actually means.

you aren't just responding to the immediate situation, but the situation that follows after - you are just thinking about your enemy, you're also thinking about what you enemy thinks about you - and what your enemy, thinks about you, thinking about your enemy, and so on ad infinitum.

you don't HAVE nuclear deterrence against the US if all you can blow up is one, possibly foreign, city

e: not in the MAD sense

you certainly have a great deal of deterrence against sane US governments because any threat of escalating a conflict into a nuclear one is a serious danger

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Smythe
Oct 12, 2003

no meds = f4
it would be a real bummer if japan got nuked again. a real, real bummer.

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