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nerdz
Oct 12, 2004


Complex, statistically improbable things are by their nature more difficult to explain than simple, statistically probable things.
Grimey Drawer

dead comedy forums posted:

I can give you one example: how about killing a significant chunk of a country's sovereign debt?

now before you go :jerkbag: again, I will walk it through this time. Have you heard about odious debt?

odious debt is the one accrued and effected in a way that it is politically illegitimate (it has no popular consent) and resulted in no benefit to society (no tangible improvement has been made through its use)

before the creation of the actual legal grounding and framework that formalized the concept, its most famous application was the repudiation of the colonial debt of the thirteen colonies that formed the United States, in which the UK argued after the war that they owed trading debts accrued during the colonial period as if they were independent: the US argued back saying that the debt was not American per se, for they were under British sovereignty and thus under their government, as well that such debt was put much more to the UK's benefit rather than the colonies.

France, Spain, the Netherlands and a couple of other countries agreed and thus the United States came to be without a completely destroyed monetary balance, which was our case (I can elaborate in another post). Sure, a lot of those just wanted to stab the UK, but created a very important historical precedent.

lets jump to today. The United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the international courts at the Hague and such others are in full accordance with the existence of odious debt, especially by the way of colonialism, imperialism and tyranny, and they are willing to hear and deal about it.

so how does that work for us?

well, the country goes and asks the international community that it is unjustly saddled with odious debt, things are accounted for and then the international arbiters say "gee you are right" and that part of the debt is destroyed: for the most relevant case, see Rafael Correa's action in that regard (imho it was by far one of the best all-time efforts of the 'left' in the continent). easy, right?

actually, it is, but the real pain in the rear end is the accounting part - in order to check what part of the debt is odious and how much it is, you need to audit the sovereign debt, and this is why a lot of countries like ours do not invoke colonialism as a political argument for the sake of doing something practical - because it would gently caress up a lot of assholes

auditing the sovereign debt would involve doing a systematic effort to see the details of what is owed, by whom, where did it start, in what conditions, who is paying the country, who is not, who is cheating, who has paid too much and needs to be compensated, who decided to speculate against the country by using its own debt against it, etc

as it turns out, we have a loving huge disproportional population of rentiers compared to the rest of the world that, because of the ideological denial of the contemporary relevance of colonialism, effectively sequester rent from the population at large by being invested in sovereign debt titles and burden their countries with massive debt that could be easily dealt with

if that isn't a practical policy effort using colonialism as an argument idk what to tell you

Doesn't Haiti still have to pay a shitload of money to France that was basically odious debt to purposely gently caress them up? Apparently what they already paid amounts to billions of euros when adjusted for inflation, which is insane given Haiti's current condition. We'll never know where Haiti would be had it not been saddled with this "debt".

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Symbolic Butt
Mar 22, 2009

(_!_)
Buglord

nerdz posted:

Doesn't Haiti still have to pay a shitload of money to France that was basically odious debt to purposely gently caress them up? Apparently what they already paid amounts to billions of euros when adjusted for inflation, which is insane given Haiti's current condition. We'll never know where Haiti would be had it not been saddled with this "debt".

It was eventually pardoned... in 2010

Communist Zombie
Nov 1, 2011
And to make it even more hosed up the debt was reperations. To France, for its lost "property" when it became independent and was no longer a slave colony.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong
On top of that bullshit, there were also rival states within Haiti at various times who racked up huge debts of their own and other countries would demand the unified successors take on responsibility, so that further delayed any attempts to get out from under the existing immediate-post-colonial debt.

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

Fujimori, like Pinochet, deserved to live the rest of his life in jail and to die there.

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


nerdz posted:

Doesn't Haiti still have to pay a shitload of money to France that was basically odious debt to purposely gently caress them up?

Communist Zombie posted:

And to make it even more hosed up the debt was reperations. To France, for its lost "property" when it became independent and was no longer a slave colony.

Haiti is a very special case because besides economics there was the monumental event that formerly enslaved black revolutionaries beat the crap out of the French not once, not twice but three times, so everybody in Europe told them to die in a fire because admitting that an Afro-Caribbean country was an equal would be utterly insane

and that of course hosed Haiti up because almost nobody would trade with them: they sent a delegation to the US in order to try getting American support and while many thought it was a proper thing to do and help a fellow rising nation in the Americas, it also represented the worst nightmare of slave power, so ofc they wouldn't help them

long story short, racism goes a long way into economics too

an awesome aside: however the Haitians were and are metal as gently caress and decided "you know what lets make our own trade partners" and decided to talk to a guy named Bolívar and provide him artillery and highly experienced soldiers to drill him an army in exchange for ending slavery once the viceroyalties got liberated

(the fucker did not do so)

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

The World Bank deliberately changed its competitiveness rankings to pull Chile's rank down during Bachelet's administrations:

https://twitter.com/DFinanciero/status/952178966969966593

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


nerdz posted:

Doesn't Haiti still have to pay a shitload of money to France that was basically odious debt to purposely gently caress them up? Apparently what they already paid amounts to billions of euros when adjusted for inflation, which is insane given Haiti's current condition. We'll never know where Haiti would be had it not been saddled with this "debt".

Not that the debt wasn't insanely unjust, but Haiti and the DR were actually just as poor as each other until about 1970

https://twitter.com/InquisitiveMarg/status/951818221878939654

bagual
Oct 29, 2010

inconspicuous

Badger of Basra posted:

The World Bank deliberately changed its competitiveness rankings to pull Chile's rank down during Bachelet's administrations:

https://twitter.com/DFinanciero/status/952178966969966593


wow who would say foreign institutions can not be counted on to be politically neutral at all times

inb4 wateroverfire or Non Serviam say "it wasn't foul play, it was actually true because socialism bad"

PotatoJudge
May 22, 2004

Tell me about the rabbits, George

bagual posted:

wow who would say foreign institutions can not be counted on to be politically neutral at all times

inb4 wateroverfire or Non Serviam say "it wasn't foul play, it was actually true because socialism bad"

Step 1: 4% corporate tax rate hike
Step 2: Gulags

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

bagual posted:

wow who would say foreign institutions can not be counted on to be politically neutral at all times

inb4 wateroverfire or Non Serviam say "it wasn't foul play, it was actually true because socialism bad"

"Dude, the fact that this leftist government failed after we cut their credit, poisoned their crops, drowned every rebel group in their country in money and distorted their standing on the world's financial stage proves beyond a doubt that socialism can never work!"

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Sephyr posted:

"Dude, the fact that this leftist government failed after we cut their credit, poisoned their crops, drowned every rebel group in their country in money and distorted their standing on the world's financial stage proves beyond a doubt that socialism can never work!"

It's the American Republican strategy of "This will never work, and we'll prove it by making sure of that"

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

GlyphGryph posted:

It's the American Republican strategy of "This will never work, and we'll prove it by making sure of that"

I remember doing a research about american Op-eds in 2004, back when I still was a proud, reasonable center-right neoliberal, and finding a piece by William Safire in the NYT that was basically him bragging about an american sabotage campaign in Russian power lines/plants that caused a series of brownouts across a couple of regions and helped damage the people's confidence in their government and system.

Even then, I couldn't avoid thinking "Hmm. If it was -really- that bad, you wouldn't have needed to give the extra push.". Accelerationism is a viable strategy for some, I guess.

P.s- I basically took an interest in Safire after that and started reading back his stuff and holy gently caress, he was a vile little goblin of a man. In think the NYT loses only narrowly to the Koch Brothers in the "gives hideous monsters a high-profile writing job" field.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

bagual posted:

wow who would say foreign institutions can not be counted on to be politically neutral at all times

inb4 wateroverfire or Non Serviam say "it wasn't foul play, it was actually true because socialism bad"

LOL at an index that estimates 3 man days to open a business in Chile.

edit: fwiw all methodology changes from 2005-present are published so idk experts can judge for themselves.

http://www.doingbusiness.org/Methodology/Changes-to-the-Methodology

wateroverfire fucked around with this message at 12:53 on Jan 15, 2018

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


"days to open a business" as an economic quality benchmark is typical of MBA school hackery and should be thrown in a fire

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


That was such a flabbergasting non-sequitur response.

"Capitalist countries actively pour money into sabotaging other economies and then claim they can't work"
"LOL it takes (more than?) 3 days to open a business in Chile. Checkmate."

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

Cup Runneth Over posted:

That was such a flabbergasting non-sequitur response.

"Capitalist countries actively pour money into sabotaging other economies and then claim they can't work"
"LOL it takes (more than?) 3 days to open a business in Chile. Checkmate."

The index is dumb and kind of meaningless is my point. Also nobody at the Wrold Bank is trying to sabotage Chile jfc. Chile is perfectly capable of sabotaging itself thank you very much.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

dead comedy forums posted:

"days to open a business" as an economic quality benchmark is typical of MBA school hackery and should be thrown in a fire

It's super dumb. Also reeeeeeally not representitive of the actual bureaucratic process here.

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


I wasn't implying Chile was being sabotaged I just had no idea what you were trying to say relevant to the conversation.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

wateroverfire posted:

The index is dumb and kind of meaningless is my point. Also nobody at the Wrold Bank is trying to sabotage Chile jfc. Chile is perfectly capable of sabotaging itself thank you very much.

They literally admitted to doing this

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

Badger of Basra posted:

They literally admitted to doing this

lol no they didn't. Roemer opined that some changes in methodology - that were not specific to Chile - might have been ideologically motivated and the Bank said probably not but we'll review.

bagual
Oct 29, 2010

inconspicuous
loving called it

so Paul Romer, chief economist at the world bank somehow is a separate entity that the bank hasn't acknowledged to

wateroverfire posted:

lol no they didn't. Roemer opined that some changes in methodology - that were not specific to Chile - might have been ideologically motivated and the Bank said probably not but we'll review.

World bank business index for investors dumb and don't matter

wateroverfire posted:

It's super dumb. Also reeeeeeally not representitive of the actual bureaucratic process here.

"it wasn't foul play because it was actually true"

wateroverfire posted:

Chile is perfectly capable of sabotaging itself thank you very much.

Aka they didn't do it, and if they did it it doesn't matter, and if it matters we deserved it.

nerdz
Oct 12, 2004


Complex, statistically improbable things are by their nature more difficult to explain than simple, statistically probable things.
Grimey Drawer
As a small business owner, It's loving awful to be a small business in south america. It took me almost a year to get up and running due to all the bureaucracy. I lost my ID (required to start a business) and it took 3 months to get a new one because the government ran out of money to buy the special ID paper to print my ID.

Small business owners are also dumb as gently caress because they believe they are closer to the medium and big businesses than they are from regular rear end workers. So they vote for poo poo that only benefits big businesses and fucks them and their employees over.

It's even worse if you're in the tertiary (service) sector. South American countries never stopped being colonies, and the only people who make serious money here are the big agro and mining industry owners (usually from families that originally inherited the colonial lands.)

So tertiary sector small businesses get taxed waaay more than they can afford to be competitive against big companies, who have all the lobbyist and get all the big subsidies. Usually if the business isn't a smashing success it probably will not survive the first year.

Which is why I can only say a big gently caress you to whoever thinks economy is a priority over social welfare. Good economy indicators only mean that the big companies are making money for their CEOs while paying poo poo to workers. People told me I would become right wing once I started being a business owner in Brazil but if anything it just made me more sick of the unfair competition bullshit and how south america as whole works for the interests of big companies that export raw materials to the first world using slave labor, not unlike 500 years ago. It's also very stupid how easy it is to evade taxes (which almost everyone does without remorse) so I feel like a dumbass when I make extra sure I'm paying the right stuff.

nerdz fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Jan 15, 2018

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Brazil has stupid large banks with stupid large presence on the overall economy, which is peak rentier state: primary exports and financial services as the strongest aspects pretty much means "We Don't Care About Building or Developing Anything and Therefore gently caress Everybody Who Isn't a Millionaire" at max levels

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

wateroverfire posted:

LOL at an index that estimates 3 man days to open a business in Chile.

Well no poo poo, opening a real business anywhere takes several months of putting together funding and coming up with a working business plan.

Oh wait, you're just complaining it might be difficult to setup a useless shell corp.

Polidoro
Jan 5, 2011


Huevo se dice argidia. Argidia!

fishmech posted:

Well no poo poo, opening a real business anywhere takes several months of putting together funding and coming up with a working business plan.

Oh wait, you're just complaining it might be difficult to setup a useless shell corp.

Nobody is talking about starting a business. Just registering your business so it legally exists takes three days.

Here in Uruguay it takes longer depending on the type of business but if you want a shell anonymous society it takes less than a day because you can buy pre registered ones so you can start laundering your money right away.

Doktor Avalanche
Dec 30, 2008

Why are shells even allowed to exist, do they have any use other than shady poo poo?

ZearothK
Aug 25, 2008

I've lost twice, I've failed twice and I've gotten two dishonorable mentions within 7 weeks. But I keep coming back. I am The Trooper!

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021


large adult son posted:

Why are shells even allowed to exist, do they have any use other than shady poo poo?

Politicians use them, therefore they are legal.

Polidoro
Jan 5, 2011


Huevo se dice argidia. Argidia!
e: ^^^^What he said
Why would governments limit shell companies if that's the best way for them to hide what they own?

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
The obviousness of Brazilian media corruption was super evident when the panama papers came out and a shitton of info on shell companies in Brazil came out, but you had to read it from the foreign partners on the panama papers release, not the Brazilian ones. Like, super simple stuff that you could check yourself (like the Marinhos building a mansion literally in the middle of protected national forest and claiming it wasn't theirs, when the shell company that owned the house used the same address as the office of one of the Marinhos). After a dutch newspaper broke the story anyone could go online and verify it, and the Marinhos still denied it was theirs, and no national media outlet ever pointed out the truth.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

joepinetree posted:

The obviousness of Brazilian media corruption was super evident when the panama papers came out and a shitton of info on shell companies in Brazil came out, but you had to read it from the foreign partners on the panama papers release, not the Brazilian ones. Like, super simple stuff that you could check yourself (like the Marinhos building a mansion literally in the middle of protected national forest and claiming it wasn't theirs, when the shell company that owned the house used the same address as the office of one of the Marinhos). After a dutch newspaper broke the story anyone could go online and verify it, and the Marinhos still denied it was theirs, and no national media outlet ever pointed out the truth.

My favorite quote about the brazilian elite comes from regrettable shithead Arnaldo Jabor, before his brain rotted completely when Digo Mainardi basically stole his thunder as "well-spoken progressive center-right guy".

"Our elite has nursed on the State for 400 years, and yet make their bones by attacking it at every chance. They feel doubly rewarded then, holding themselves as both landlords and rebels. They suck on one teat and punch the other. Forever."

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Rodrigo Maia says the Bolsa Família is slavery :bravo:

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/intern...in-the-us.shtml

Olive Branch
May 26, 2010

There is no wealth like knowledge, no poverty like ignorance.

Well, Lula was just found guilty of corruption charges. Protests all over Brazil by the Worker's Party. Don't tell me that Bolsonaro gently caress is going to get a win, here.

nerdz
Oct 12, 2004


Complex, statistically improbable things are by their nature more difficult to explain than simple, statistically probable things.
Grimey Drawer
lula to be arrested tomorrow

hoiyes
May 17, 2007

nerdz posted:

lula to be arrested tomorrow
:jerky:
What's the over-under on him spending more time in jail than Odebrecht?

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Olive Branch posted:

Well, Lula was just found guilty of corruption charges. Protests all over Brazil by the Worker's Party. Don't tell me that Bolsonaro gently caress is going to get a win, here.

You know we're doomed already.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Condolences for your stupid government Brazil goons.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Squalid posted:

Condolences for your stupid government Brazil goons.

Eh. It was a very limp affair, to be honest. Even my family and friends, who hate Lula as if he had shat in their cereal for the last 5 years without fail, couldn't muster more than retweeting a meme or two. There was some wanker with a bullhorn on his balcony, someone else beating a pan in the distance, some fireworks in Higienopolis (the upper-middle-class pretentious neighborhood), and that was it.

I feel we are at the level in which everyone's apathy is just overwhelming. No one cares that is not being paid to: journalist boosters of the new regime hoping for concessions and further 'reforms', online activists trying to keep the hype alive, and that's it.

You don't go to this lengths to steal the country only to give it back 2 years later. The only question now is if we'll get Bolsonaro or a hollow neoliberal suit that will be hailed as the moderate savior of Brasil until things crash, and then we get whomever Bolsonaro 2.0 will be.

ZearothK
Aug 25, 2008

I've lost twice, I've failed twice and I've gotten two dishonorable mentions within 7 weeks. But I keep coming back. I am The Trooper!

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021


It will be the latter.

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Halser
Aug 24, 2016

Negrostrike posted:

You know we're doomed already.

While I'm personally glad Lula's chances of running again are very slim, I think the chances that loving Bolsonaro wins are microscopic. He's just a clown, and not even a billionaire clown.

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