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RCarr posted:What's the consensus on Andrew Luck? Do we think he has a good chance of returning to form? I'm trying to figure out what to do with him in my dynasty league. I think he's a hold. It's impossible to say what the hell is going on.
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Jan 31, 2018 16:38
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Someplace where he will be loved and cherished, and probably win a Super Bowl. Cleveland it is.
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Jan 31, 2018 16:39
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I think he's a hold. It's impossible to say what the hell is going on. Exactly. If you're selling him now, you're basically selling at the bottom of his market. It doesn't make sense to do that.
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Jan 31, 2018 17:00
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Dynasty Question: I have 2 IR guys at the moment (Spencer Ware and Cameron Meredith). After the Super Bowl we get one week to cut the rosters to make space for IR guys to be activated or just drop the IR guys. Who would you cut? Case Keenum Teddy Bridgewater Buck Allen Danny Woodhead Or one of the IR guys.
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Jan 31, 2018 17:29
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I think he's a hold. It's impossible to say what the hell is going on. This. I'd even consider buying, depending on the cost and league settings. In a superflex if he's discounted enough due to the uncertainly for sure. Supposedly he's near a return to throwing. I'd hope that part of why McDaniels wanted to go there was Luck, and thus there are good (non-public) signs?
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Jan 31, 2018 17:39
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Zauper posted:This. I'd even consider buying, depending on the cost and league settings. In a superflex if he's discounted enough due to the uncertainly for sure. Especially at the height of rookie fever coming up in the next couple months, I suspect in many superflex leagues, you'll be able to snag Luck for a single early/mid 1st. That's a buy for me all day.
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Jan 31, 2018 17:58
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MacheteZombie posted:Dynasty Question: I assume this is just the bottom of your barrel? I'd hang on to Keenum and Meredith and whichever of Allen/Woodhead will start in 2018. Nobody else is worth anything. I guess since the Baltimore RB situation is in flex (Allen is probably better but there are more years and more cash invested in Woodhead) I'd just dump Bridgewater and Ware.
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Jan 31, 2018 18:23
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Poque posted:I assume this is just the bottom of your barrel? I'd hang on to Keenum and Meredith and whichever of Allen/Woodhead will start in 2018. Nobody else is worth anything. I guess since the Baltimore RB situation is in flex (Allen is probably better but there are more years and more cash invested in Woodhead) I'd just dump Bridgewater and Ware. Thanks! Does owning Kareem Hunt change your opinion on dumping Ware? Forgot to include that. E: I completely forgot that I still have the Baltimore dst and two kickers on my roster (Tucker and legatron), but I'd be buying them back during our supplemental draft anyway. 25 man roster.
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Jan 31, 2018 18:32
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MacheteZombie posted:Thanks! Does owning Kareem Hunt change your opinion on dumping Ware? Forgot to include that. The existence of Kareem Hunt was the main part of the opinion, heh, but yeah, it does. If you can decide on a Bal RB to drop, I'd do that rather than Ware to keep him since he's one of the best handcuffs out there.
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Jan 31, 2018 18:33
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MacheteZombie posted:Dynasty Question: I’d cut both Ravens right now.
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Jan 31, 2018 18:47
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RCarr posted:What's the consensus on Andrew Luck? Do we think he has a good chance of returning to form? I'm trying to figure out what to do with him in my dynasty league. Is he still alive?
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Jan 31, 2018 19:43
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for the foreseeable future I am running on the impression that Andrew Luck will never play in another NFL game again. gently caress the Colts.
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Jan 31, 2018 19:52
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Alfalfa posted:I’d cut both Ravens right now. Yeah that's kind of what I've been leaning, but wasn't sure if that was just a bad move. I kinda think it's gonna be Alex Collins leading the way so the other two will be situational at best.
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Jan 31, 2018 20:13
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Poque posted:for the foreseeable future I am running on the impression that Andrew Luck will never play in another NFL game again. gently caress the Colts. It's pretty amazing how we went from "he should be back in time to start the season" during the preseason, to "he will resume a throwing routine again...soon" less than a week before the Super Bowl. The craziest thing is that there has been barely a trickle of real information, and there were never any reports of a setback from what I can remember. How much did they actually know about the injury going into this season?
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Jan 31, 2018 21:08
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Enough to know not to mention anything about it until after season tickets were sold.
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Jan 31, 2018 21:14
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I have a dynasty salary cap league question... How do most leagues handle when a player gets too expensive to keep, and goes back into the pool? 25 man rosters, we have a $250 salary cap (salaries increase $1 or 10% each year, whichever is higher), and one of our teams has David Johnson($70), LeVeon Bell($65), and Ezekiel Elliot($57). What's the best way to handle if he drops one of them? The league rules I copied/tweaked to use for our league says that the first 3 picks of the supplemental draft are $20, the next 3 are $18, and so on and so forth. But that means whoever has the first pick will get an absolute stud RB at a severely discounted cost, and will keep him forever. A solution I thought of, would be if stud like that goes back into the pool, no matter what pick he is taken with in the supplemental draft, his salary will cost the ADP dollar amount for that year. So if the average experts salary value of David Johnson is $62, no matter who drafts him, and when, his salary will be $62. BUT, what happens if no one can afford him or wants to spend that much on him, and he goes undrafted? Then it goes to whoever wants to bid the most FAAB for him off waivers, I guess? Does anyone know of a good way to handle stuff like this? I love this league but a salary cap dynasty league is super complicated.
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Feb 1, 2018 17:16
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RCarr posted:I have a dynasty salary cap league question... That’s why you need 2 separate drafts. Rookie draft following that protocol above. Then UFA slow draft that’s just open bidding.
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Feb 1, 2018 18:45
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RCarr posted:I have a dynasty salary cap league question... We solved it in the league you copied by doing a FA bid where you have to have dropped all players for slots you want to fill already 1 week before the rookie draft and making that draft rookies only. I threatened to drop and pick up julio for $20 if they didn't make a change to the system  The FA bids go out of your FAAB, so you need to balance long-term add/drop needs against the one time purchase at the start of the season.
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Feb 1, 2018 18:53
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Wouldn't that result in an endless cycle of any stud that is dropped being bought for $80+ out of $100 FAAB, and then being dropped before the next draft because no one can afford to keep them?
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Feb 1, 2018 22:22
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Realistically, how many studs are going to be in situations like that? One or two cheap studs a year is fine imo, and isn't nearly enough to unbalance the league in any serious way. If anything, that might keep things a little more even, as teams that go stud heavy are forced to shed a few every so often, and lovely teams with good draft picks get an extra boost in value by getting to add them at low salary.
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Feb 1, 2018 23:09
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There’s currently 8 players whose salary is over $50 this year, so potentially in a year or two they could all be thrown back into a single draft.
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Feb 2, 2018 03:38
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RCarr posted:There’s currently 8 players whose salary is over $50 this year, so potentially in a year or two they could all be thrown back into a single draft. And plenty of people would bid on them driving the price back up. You can also set position tags (like franchise tags or hold out pricing). To make sure a player gets paid, if they finished in top 5 of scoring previous year then their bidding starts at the average of top 10 of that position.
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Feb 2, 2018 05:22
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The only keeper league I play in is baseball, but there's enough inflation that the top 3 or so guys (Trout, Kershaw, Harper) end up in the draft every year, and I think it's better that way.
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Feb 2, 2018 05:37
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RCarr posted:Wouldn't that result in an endless cycle of any stud that is dropped being bought for $80+ out of $100 FAAB, and then being dropped before the next draft because no one can afford to keep them? Maybe, but if someone wants to dump $80 of their annual FAAB budget during the preasason on one player for one season, they're gambling their entire year on not needing any of the hot commodities that will inevitably crop up on FAAB during the year. So there's a tradeoff, and dynasty is all about trading off success now vs. building for the future. Also, if you are paying a stud less than $80 and drop him and he goes for $80 in the free agent auction, then you likely missed an opportunity to trade him for something of value, instead of letting him go for nothing in return.
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Feb 3, 2018 02:32
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Leperflesh posted:Maybe, but if someone wants to dump $80 of their annual FAAB budget during the preasason on one player for one season, they're gambling their entire year on not needing any of the hot commodities that will inevitably crop up on FAAB during the year. So there's a tradeoff, and dynasty is all about trading off success now vs. building for the future. No one can afford any player for $80 of their salary cap, but everyone can afford them for $80 of their FAAB. There's a huge difference. It would be stupid not to spend $80 of your FAAB on a guy like LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, etc. I would do it every year without question. A (nearly) guaranteed top 10 player for the whole season is more than you can ever ask to spend your FAAB on.
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Feb 3, 2018 13:55
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RCarr posted:No one can afford any player for $80 of their salary cap, but everyone can afford them for $80 of their FAAB. There's a huge difference. It would be stupid not to spend $80 of your FAAB on a guy like LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, etc. I would do it every year without question. A (nearly) guaranteed top 10 player for the whole season is more than you can ever ask to spend your FAAB on. This post makes no sense. What we bid becomes their salary for the year. Are there systems where that doesn't happen?
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Feb 3, 2018 18:02
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RCarr posted:No one can afford any player for $80 of their salary cap, but everyone can afford them for $80 of their FAAB. There's a huge difference. It would be stupid not to spend $80 of your FAAB on a guy like LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, etc. I would do it every year without question. A (nearly) guaranteed top 10 player for the whole season is more than you can ever ask to spend your FAAB on. Also, one top ten player helps you win this year. but what about the future of your team? the opportunity cost is being unable to get the breakout players that will pay dividends for the next decade of play. If your plan is to win this year, yeah, take that guy assuming you have the cap space. If your plan this year is to find future value, an $80 stud in the preseason makes less sense.
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Feb 3, 2018 18:14
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Epi Lepi posted:This post makes no sense. What we bid becomes their salary for the year. Are there systems where that doesn't happen? I guess if your league has a hard salary cap that can't be broken at any point during the season, then you're right. My league only has a soft cap, meaning you have to be under the cap before/during/after the draft, but once the season starts you can go over the cap. So you could trade or pick up an expensive player for a one year rental during the season. Then you'd obviously have to make some trades or cut people before the next draft. Leperflesh posted:Also, one top ten player helps you win this year. but what about the future of your team? the opportunity cost is being unable to get the breakout players that will pay dividends for the next decade of play. Yea this makes more sense, I didn't really think of it like that. RCarr fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 18:22
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Leperflesh posted:Also, one top ten player helps you win this year. but what about the future of your team? the opportunity cost is being unable to get the breakout players that will pay dividends for the next decade of play. The hit rate of "guys you picked up off the wire that are valuable for a decade" is close to 0, though. Even the hit rate for guys that are valuable in the year you picked them up is fairly low, going by those waiver wire analyses rotoviz does every so often (probability of a hot waiver wire pick up being an RB2 or better for more than a game is like 25% or something?). Most of your FAAB spend is going to be on short term, not very useful guys. Taking a guaranteed season long stud instead of blowing your budget on 1-2 week dart throws is an easy decision, no? You also have to not only pick up the guys that manage to have sustained value, but also have to beat out your leaguemates for them. You also can get perfectly fine dynasty stashes for free/$0 bids during the season, guys like Funchess or Agholor 1-2 years ago. That's ignoring the other salary-related issues, like if signing a guaranteed stud for a boatload means you have no cap room to make valuable long term oriented trades in season or something, of course.
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Feb 3, 2018 19:27
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Flags Fly Forever
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Feb 3, 2018 20:03
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I mean that's all theoretically possible, but that's part of the fun of dynasty: you get multiple years to test out your theories. For the record though, we have no free/$0 bidding in this ruleset, your minimum cost is $1; and, I think you guys are underestimating how many $5-20 values come up during the season. A $10 player who winds up being a starter is a potential value for a decade at +10%/min +$1 annual progression. And then there's the opportunities when someone gets angry about an injury and dumps a star, lol, but don't count on that. Just some examples from the past year in my league: During the free agent auction, these guys were the top (in terms of price) guys picked up; Dez Bryant, $54 Gronk, $48 Lamar Miller, $38 (tI did this and regret it, the next highest bid was $37 so I barely got him but he did not return this value) Marshawn Lynch, $27 (and then subsequently dropped, and someone else got him for $1 in November) Luke Kuechly, $12 Eric Decker, $9 Jordan Matthews, $9 Then during the season, here's a sampling of most of the pickups that I think were significant (I'm leaving out a lot of IDP guys but mentioning some names I think might wind up being good values): Sept 6, Adam Thielen $9, Adrian Peterson $2, Devin Funchess $2, Morgan Burnett $1 Sep 13, Alex Smith $12, Nelson Agholor $12 Sep 20, Rashard Higgins $8, Chandler Jones $7, Zach Miller $1, Matt Forte $1, Eric Ebron $1, Charles Clay $1, Ben Watson $1 Sep 23, Jordan Poyer $2, Allen Hurns $9, Markus Wheaton $1, Trent Taylor $2 Sep 27, Jeremy Hill $11, TJ Ward $2, Cameron Jordan (NOS DE) $1 Sep 30, Aaron Jones $16, Geronimo Allison $4, Jay Culter $3 Oct 4, Martellus Bennett $1, Austin Seferian-Jenkins $1, Cameron Heyward $1 Oct 7, Josh McCown $6, Jacquizz Rodgers $5, Jaron Brown $4, Terrance Mitchell $1 Oct 11, Shane Vereen $3, AJ Bouye $2, Mike Wallace $1, Trey Flowers $1 Oct 14, Alfred Morris $8, Martellus Bennett $3, Brian Hoyer $1 lol, Michael Bennett $1 Oct 18, Case Keenum $2, Orleans Darkwa $7, Ed Dickson $1 Oct 21, Sam Bradford $24, Jordan Poyer $1, Chris Ivory $1 Oct 25, Micah Hyde $2, Deonte Thompson $2, Marshon Lattimore $1, Kerwynn Williams $1 Oct 28, Odell Beckham $46, Carson Palmer $5, Danny Trevathan $1, Yannick Ngakoue $9?? Nov 1,Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garoppolo $11, Damien Williams $4, Travis Benjamin $2, Jay Cutler $1, Jason Pierre-Paul $1, Cameron Wake $1, Glover Quin $1, Julius Peppers $1, BJ Goodson $1, Josh Gordon $1!!! Nov 4, Brett Hundley $6, Marshawn Lynch $1, Rex Burkhead $1, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix $1, Jared Cook $1 Nov 8, Terrance West $2, Cole Beasley $2 Nov 11, Vernon Davis $1, Ryan Fitzpatrick $1 Nov 15, Theo Riddick $5, Brandon Marshall DEN LB $2, Jared Cook $1, Chris Ivory $1, Alec Ogletree $1 Nov 18, Devontae Booker $1 Nov 22, J.D McKissic $3, Corey Clement $3, Jamaal Williams $2, Bruce Ellington $2, Dontrelle Inman $1, Chad Williams $1, Jordan Poyer $1 again Nov 25, Paxton Lynch $3, Ricky Seals-Jones $1 Nov 29, Martavis Bryant $6, Josh Reynolds $1 Dec 2, Peyton Barber $1 Dec 6, Mike Davis $2, Trey Burton $2 Dec 9, Marquise Goodwin $3, Ben Watson $1 Dec 13, Kevin White $1 Dec 20 (final waiver run for the year) Eric Ebron $1, Keelan Cole $1, Carlos Henderson $1, Tion Green $1, Tahir Whitehead $1, Sean Davis $1 If you only had $20 in leftover FAAB going into the season, you'd definitely have missed ODB and Sam Bradford, and would have had difficulty bidding away a big chunk of your remaining pot on Jimmy G, Aaron Jones when he broke out, Alex Smith after his first game of the season, Adam Thielen, and maybe some of the other interesting guys in the mix. There's still tons of $1 guys in there who may pan out, and you'd be able to bid on and get them, of course. But you'd need to be in a win-this-season mode, and have the cap space, to pick up an $80 stud and then you may have to rely on trades to fill in any key gaps that come up with anything better than like a $5 pickup Oh one more thing, RVProfootballer posted:guaranteed season long stud There's no such thing in fantasy football. See: Odell Beckham, David Johnson, etc. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 20:32
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Leperflesh posted:snip Cool to see a list, thanks for taking the time to do it. Your league does seem shallower compared to what I'm used to, with a lot of those guys even hitting the wire or being on it for so long (Marquise Goodwin took until December to get grabbed?), so that could definitely be where our ideas are differing. I just looked back at one league to see if I could find any bargains in 2016 like your league seemed to find in Thielen this year, and among bids like 20% for Charcandrick West in November 2016 and Jeremy Kerley for 5% in September 2016, the best I could find was Dak Prescott for 20% (in a 1 QB league) right after Romo went down. Otherwise, it was all 0-1% bids on (good) IDPs, handcuffs, etc. That's a 12 teamer with 40 man rosters, with 9 offensive and 6 defensive starters. Looking briefly at a couple other leagues that are roughly comparable in terms of depth to that one, common themes were spending a decent 5-25% bid at different points in the season on Taylor Gabriel, Knile Davis, Rob Kelley, Damien Williams, Cameron Meredith, Dennis Pitta, Tyreek Hill, Tim Hightower, Travis Benjamin, Kenny Britt (guaranteed WR3 or better hah), Tyrell Williams, Adam Humphries, and boatloads on previously highly touted rookies that ever got dropped at some point (>20% on guys like Treadwell, Dixon, etc). For a somewhat shallower contract league with a lot more roster turnover, I'd definitely be more agreeing with you.
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Feb 3, 2018 21:45
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Btw if you do the fa auction before draft and need to be cap compliant at draft, that solves the problem? I thought about grabbing Goodwin much earlier than he was taken but I couldn't justify the roster space and already had garcon on IR and trent taylor on my taxi squad. And I think lepers list is not quite fully complete. I grabbed fuller for $2 after his owner gave up. We have ~24 roster spots (+2 IR and 3 TS), and ~12 starters (QB, 2x RB, 2x WR, TE, flex, DL, LB, DB, 2x IDP-flex), so it's hard to run a deep bench for developing players, given 1 year taxi squad that can be stolen without cost. And there are 7 different roster positions that you have to start, which makes it tricky that we don't have a free agency, so you need to hold an extra one of anything if you have a player that's Q and may sit. Zauper fucked around with this message at 00:11 on Feb 4, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 22:48
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Yeah the taxi squad is gonna change this summer, per the vote, but the rest of that stuff does hold. And yeah 40 man benches holy jebus that's deep as hell.
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Feb 4, 2018 03:05
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16 team league and we have bench cap at whatever NFL sets it at that year and in off-season can have up to 90 on roster. But we run a full gambit of positions, plus team offensive line, and head coach. Pic of formation choices each week. 
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Feb 4, 2018 03:27
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Leperflesh posted:Yeah the taxi squad is gonna change this summer, per the vote, but the rest of that stuff does hold. And yeah 40 man benches holy jebus that's deep as hell. Yeah but we're also adding another starter and.. One roster spot? So the ratio gets slightly worse. At least it's a flex. Btw what would you think about changing the offensive starters to be more similar to the D? One required per position, rest flex instead of 2 RB 2 WR plus flex
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Feb 4, 2018 03:40
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Zauper posted:Yeah but we're also adding another starter and.. One roster spot? So the ratio gets slightly worse. At least it's a flex. Bring it up in the league thread, for sure. I'll have to think about it a bit but my first impulse is sure, why not.
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Feb 4, 2018 06:45
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 Someone help me figure out my Dynasty salary cap conundrum!I went all in last year by trading for Antonio Brown and Mike Evans, so now I need to make some moves to shed salary. 25 man roster, $250 salary cap. Salaries increase by 10% or $1 each year (whichever is higher). Starting lineup is QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3Flex. Here's what I'm working with. QB Luck - $13 Goff - $3 Bortles - $2 Keenum - $2 RB Ingram - $11 Anderson - $11 Montgomery - $10 Burkhead - $4 Conner - $3 Lewis - $2 Carson - $2 WR Evans - $55 Brown - $51 Cooper - $31 Hopkins - $26 D. Thomas - $21 Jeffery - $21 Crabtree - $17 Robinson - $12 Benjamin - $10 Anderson - $3 White - $2 Mitchell - $2 TE Kelce - $21 Henry - $3 What should be my plan here? Do I trade Brown and Evans? I guess trading them for picks and talent on cheap deals makes the most sense. Or do I try to make room to keep one of them? Who else should I look to move? RCarr fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Feb 9, 2018 |
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Feb 9, 2018 17:59
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RCarr posted:
To be clear, this is what their salaries will be next year, right? Have you already applied the 10% increase?
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Feb 9, 2018 18:31
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Yes this is taking into account the increase.
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Feb 9, 2018 18:32
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