Illinois Politics: Great Plains Khanate Megathread

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Illinois Politics: Great Plains Khanate Megathread

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Volkerball posted:

CNN's figure was 251. No corrections.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/06/investing/illinois-budget-deal-house-override/index.html

Yet the Illinois Dept of Insurance says its $185 billion.

quote:

The Illinois Department of Insurance released its two-year report on every public pension in the state. From 2015 to 2016, Illinois' 671 pension funds added $17 billion in additional unfunded liabilities, bringing it up to $185 billion.

The $251 is Moody's estimate, but where are they getting that number?

quote:

Illinois has outstanding debt of about $32 billion, of which 82% is general obligation.

Even outstanding debt plus unfunded pension liability only equals 217B.

# ? Jan 24, 2018 21:47

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# ? May 25, 2024 22:21

esquilax: Jan 3, 2003

Oracle posted:

Yet the Illinois Dept of Insurance says its $185 billion.
The $251 is Moody's estimate, but where are they getting that number?
Even outstanding debt plus unfunded pension liability only equals 217B.

Pension liabilities are super sensitive to assumptions since the liability is so far in the future. Moody's uses better assumptions that are market based and not manipulated for political purposes

# ? Jan 24, 2018 21:56

Man_of_Teflon: Aug 15, 2003

Niwrad posted:

He pushed for that LaSalle Street Tax which showed how little he knew about economics.

Also wasn't a fan of bringing on Ramirez-Rosa as a running mate. Rosa doesn't understand how to run his ward let alone a state.

curious to hear more about both of these.

everything I read about the traders threatening to move sounds like whiny BS to me, and high frequency trading is a problem in general. what other methods would be better to increase taxation progressively? (I have a few in mind)

and what's so bad about Rosa? it's nice to have one less rubber stamp and he sure as hell beats Colon.

# ? Jan 24, 2018 22:00

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

There are a few different proposals for a financial transaction tax.

The one I like best exempts people who make less than 1000 trades a day, so it helps alleviate the problems of high-frequency trading and won't hurt small investors.

The economic arguments are bs - Tokyo got rid of its tax in an attempt to lure investors back and it didn't work. (I think Hong Kong has a financial transaction tax, too). London's exchange merged with the NYSE and they actually moved people to London, despite their tax.

# ? Jan 24, 2018 23:33

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

Man_of_Teflon posted:

curious to hear more about both of these.

everything I read about the traders threatening to move sounds like whiny BS to me, and high frequency trading is a problem in general. what other methods would be better to increase taxation progressively? (I have a few in mind)

First, it violates current state law and some have said wouldn't pass a federal constitutional challenge. So you've got those to contend with right out of the gate.

Next is that it really wouldn't generate that much revenue. The numbers that were floated were comical.

And finally, it does cause traders to move. Everything is done online. You don't need a big city to send a trade. Just move your trading desk over the state line or use a foreign broker service. If you want an example of it, look up what happened to Sweden. They implemented one in the 80's and everyone stopped trading in that country. Like they lost 98% of the trades that were being made in the country.

It would have to be done on a national level for it to maybe work. It'd have to be small enough so that people wouldn't just use a foreign trade service instead. I still think you're better off focusing on a progressive income tax and making property taxes fair than some gimmick that would likely backfire. Also tweaking the pension system going forward.

Man_of_Teflon posted:

and what's so bad about Rosa? it's nice to have one less rubber stamp and he sure as hell beats Colon.

Try calling the office and asking for something like parking passes. They'll blow you off and tell you they can't do it because they're in a battle with the Mayor (if they even bother answering the phone). Colon was crap but he also at least handled the basic stuff that people in the ward would want. You could complain about excessive rats and you'd get a response to the problem. You could buy parking passes from the office.

On top of that, he's just not good at his job. He hates gentrification so much he spent a bunch of taxpayer money on a mural against it but ends up doing things that would actually enable it. He fucks around with zoning so developers have to go directly through him and it's leading to less housing in the district.

My theory is he has a lot of nice progressive thoughts but he has dreams for much higher office. He seems to hate being an Alderman and it's just a temporary position while he builds up name recognition and keeps his friends and family employed.

# ? Jan 25, 2018 00:11

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

The X-man cometh posted:

There are a few different proposals for a financial transaction tax.

The one I like best exempts people who make less than 1000 trades a day, so it helps alleviate the problems of high-frequency trading and won't hurt small investors.

The economic arguments are bs - Tokyo got rid of its tax in an attempt to lure investors back and it didn't work. (I think Hong Kong has a financial transaction tax, too). London's exchange merged with the NYSE and they actually moved people to London, despite their tax.

The Stamp Duty Reserve Tax is nothing at all like the FTT being proposed. It's a tax added to trades of UK companies. It doesn't hurt those in the UK as everyone who wants to trade UK companies must pay the tax whether they are in the UK or in another country. The Japan tax was also nothing at all like what's being proposed.

The law being proposed is just like the one in Sweden in the 80's. The one that saw all their trading disappear to the UK. It's the reason no single country has been dumb enough to implement it since. But a state doing it where it's much easier to move, that's insanity. Not to mention it will barely bring in any money.

Instead of these taxes on transactions maybe it's better to put the effort into a progressive tax rate at the state level. And increasing capital gains on the national level (or at least making them pay for Medicare out of it too). Much simpler solutions to getting wealthy people who trade stocks all day to pay more.

# ? Jan 25, 2018 00:55

Man_of_Teflon: Aug 15, 2003

Niwrad posted:

First, it violates current state law and some have said wouldn't pass a federal constitutional challenge. So you've got those to contend with right out of the gate.

Next is that it really wouldn't generate that much revenue. The numbers that were floated were comical.

And finally, it does cause traders to move. Everything is done online. You don't need a big city to send a trade. Just move your trading desk over the state line or use a foreign broker service. If you want an example of it, look up what happened to Sweden. They implemented one in the 80's and everyone stopped trading in that country. Like they lost 98% of the trades that were being made in the country.

It would have to be done on a national level for it to maybe work. It'd have to be small enough so that people wouldn't just use a foreign trade service instead. I still think you're better off focusing on a progressive income tax and making property taxes fair than some gimmick that would likely backfire. Also tweaking the pension system going forward.

I'm definitely in favor of the other fixes you mention at the end there.

I'm still curious - what do you think about the arguments at http://lasallestreettax.org/faq talking about the difficulties in moving? I ask because I genuinely don't know much about this stuff, and a lot of the arguments on this (admittedly completely one-sided) site seem well made:

quote:

5) Wow! But can the exchanges afford to pay this tax? Wouldn’t they move?

The LST is not a tax on the exchanges; they don’t trade. It is a tax on the buyers and sellers of futures and options contracts traded in the exchanges. The exchanges would simply act like the hardware store that collects the sales tax when you buy a hammer. And then sends the tax to the State of Illinois. Contrary to claims by lobbyists that the exchanges could easily move trading infrastructure out of Illinois, such a relocation would be enormously costly and disruptive. The CME facility in Aurora for example is the size of seven football fields, and throughout the Chicago area “high frequency traders” (see 7 and 10) seeking to place their servers as close as possible to trading matching engines have “co-located” near exchange facilities. All of these trading and exchange facilities would have to be relocated together and customized high-speed straight-line transmission connections to trading in New York, Asia, and other locations around the world would have to be rebuilt. Straight-line transmission is used for nanosecond time savings that allow high frequency traders to get an information edge on other traders as described in the Michael Lewis book Flash Boys for options and stock trading in Chicago and New York. Chicago is a key time zone player in 24 hour global trading strategies between New York and Asia. Also trading “clearing house” facilities and their links to all of the financial institutions in Chicago would have be relocated and reconnected. Finally, in the unlikely event that the exchanges were able to provide credible data indicating that profit reduction from trading volume losses due to the LST was large enough to justify the costs of relocating out of Illinois, the state could negotiate a lower LST that would likely still raise billions in public revenue. Currently, detailed data on trading is generally not publicly available.

I gotta agree that even if they would threaten to move, there has to be a middle ground for the amount of the tax that could still raise at least a billion or two. which seems worth it to me!

also I guess Taiwan has a similar tax that worked ok?

Niwrad posted:

Try calling the office and asking for something like parking passes. They'll blow you off and tell you they can't do it because they're in a battle with the Mayor (if they even bother answering the phone). Colon was crap but he also at least handled the basic stuff that people in the ward would want. You could complain about excessive rats and you'd get a response to the problem. You could buy parking passes from the office.

On top of that, he's just not good at his job. He hates gentrification so much he spent a bunch of taxpayer money on a mural against it but ends up doing things that would actually enable it. He fucks around with zoning so developers have to go directly through him and it's leading to less housing in the district.

part of me gets him opposing heavy/big development in Avondale, wanting to stop the change bringing in fancy/expensive poo poo that is driving a lot of people out (I lived in Logan from 2007-2015 so I saw it all), but I do also get that it will make it harder to build the volume of housing that is needed now that the neighborhood is so much more popular.

as for the individual ward service stuff, that is all pretty hit or miss in my personal experience. I would give up the finest in ward services in a heartbeat though to have an alderman that actually stands up to the mayor (stuck with Mell now sadly).

# ? Jan 25, 2018 04:43

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

Man_of_Teflon posted:

I'm still curious - what do you think about the arguments at http://lasallestreettax.org/faq talking about the difficulties in moving? I ask because I genuinely don't know much about this stuff, and a lot of the arguments on this (admittedly completely one-sided) site seem well made:

I gotta agree that even if they would threaten to move, there has to be a middle ground for the amount of the tax that could still raise at least a billion or two. which seems worth it to me!

Most trading is done online these days, not on the floor of these exchanges. CME Group closed most of their pits a couple years ago. So for most, it won't matter where they move to (if they haven't already). And most trades aren't being made by Illinois companies anyway.

And if being close really matters, they'll either go to Indiana or just set up an intermediary in Illinois who can handle the actual trade. Intermediaries could not be taxed.

Now lets say that site is correct and it would bring in $10-$12 billion a year (this is absurd by the way). Do you really think companies would just pay $10-$12 billion year after year instead of just moving? Are we to assume these greedy rich people will not care about that kind of money any more? I understand the urge to do it but it's an industry that can work almost anywhere. You're much better off taxing their income (which you'll get much more revenue from) at a higher rate.

Man_of_Teflon posted:

also I guess Taiwan has a similar tax that worked ok?

Taiwan's volume is real low because of it and they actually lowered the FTT rate to spur volume.

# ? Jan 25, 2018 06:00

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

Speaking of a progressive income tax. Wouldn't the next few years be the best time to do it? I think there is going to be a massive wave for Democrats across the country and I can't think of a better time to do it. Plus the 2020 election should also be heavily Democrat and Illinois has a reason to get out and vote with a key Senate race (assuming Durbin retires).

I'd love to see some momentum for it happening since it's actually one thing that could help save the state.

# ? Jan 25, 2018 06:03

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Pretty sure our lovely regressive income tax is written into the State Constitution so it�ll require an amendment to institute a progressive income tax.

Edit: yep

quote:

To amend the Constitution to allow for a graduated income tax, three-fifths of the members in both chambers of the General Assembly must vote in favor of an amendment by May 6, 2016. There are currently two amendments up for consideration that would allow for a graduated income tax � one in the House and one in the Senate.

If one of the amendments clears both chambers, it would then appear on the 2016 general election ballot. To become a part of the state�s Constitution, it would have to receive the support of either three-fifths of those voting on the question or the majority of those voting in the election. The governor does not have the power to veto constitutional amendments approved by the General Assembly.

# ? Jan 25, 2018 07:24

Fantastic Flyer: Aug 9, 2017

A progressive tax rate will require voter approval? Yeah, that poo poo's never getting passed.

# ? Jan 25, 2018 14:51

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

People will vote for it if it lowers taxes for themselves. Pritzker & Madigan are smart enough to drop the middle bracket to 4% and sell it as "a 25% reduction in taxes for most of the state"

# ? Jan 25, 2018 15:15

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Fantastic Flyer posted:

A progressive tax rate will require voter approval? Yeah, that poo poo's never getting passed.

We could always have another Constitutional Convention!

Edit:

Actually if I'm reading that right EITHER 3/5ths of the assembly has to pass it OR a public majority has to vote in favor of it, but only the Assembly vote can't be overidden by the governor? Gah, its complicated, read the article.

A constitutional convention could probably also fix the pension thing by capping payouts to those making 100K a year or higher. Right now a LOT of money is going to 4% of pension collectors. Its in one of the articles I linked above.

Oracle fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jan 25, 2018

# ? Jan 25, 2018 15:56

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

The way I read it is a multi-step process:

1) both the House and the Senate have to approve the same amendment with a 3/5 majority
2) then it appears on the ballot for statewide referendum
3) then one of two things has to happen: either 50% +1 of all voters in the election have to approve it; OR 3/5 of all voters who choose to vote on that question have to approve it (so if only half the voters fill that question out, then you need 3/5s of them. If every voter fills it out, you only need 50% +1).
4) then it becomes a full amendment because the governor can't veto it

# ? Jan 25, 2018 16:37

Nail Rat: Dec 29, 2000; You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!

The X-man cometh posted:

People will vote for it if it lowers taxes for themselves.

No one will do the loving math.

# ? Jan 25, 2018 16:39

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

I haven't watched it, but the Trib is pretty much saying that Ives crushed Rauner in their debate yesterday. I guess that is going to be the only Republican debate before the primaries. I doubt it makes a difference though, unless Rauner is really hated that much by Republicans.

# ? Jan 30, 2018 21:27

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Bird in a Blender posted:

I haven't watched it, but the Trib is pretty much saying that Ives crushed Rauner in their debate yesterday. I guess that is going to be the only Republican debate before the primaries. I doubt it makes a difference though, unless Rauner is really hated that much by Republicans.

On and off I hear about the abortion thing, but my sense in Republicanland is that nobody is really that upset at Rauner, save activists.

Then again, they're the ones who vote in primaries so who knows?

# ? Jan 30, 2018 21:32

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

dwarf74 posted:

On and off I hear about the abortion thing, but my sense in Republicanland is that nobody is really that upset at Rauner, save activists.

Then again, they're the ones who vote in primaries so who knows?

Pretty much this. If she wins its a Dem lock unless they do something terminally stupid like Madigan throws his hat in the race or someone turns up in a dead girl/live boy situation.

# ? Jan 30, 2018 21:55

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

Rauner was up 65-20 in a poll done a couple weeks ago. I'm sure that gap will shrink a bit as people get to know Ives. But she's really hard to the right and I can't see how she's going to beat an incumbent who still seen favorably in GOP circles.

http://weaskamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Statewide-GOP-Gov-Jan-15.pdf

# ? Jan 30, 2018 22:16

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Well JB Pritzker now has attack ads out on Biss, so I guess he thinks Biss might be trouble for him.

# ? Feb 2, 2018 13:46

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

I want to hear more from the "split Illinois into three states" guy

Seems like a character from parks & rec

# ? Feb 2, 2018 13:58

binaryhermit: Mar 29, 2015

At least my congresscritter, Dan Lipinski is facing a primary challenge that's semi-credible.

On a negative note, a real life Illinois Nazi is running unopposed in the Republican primary.

EDIT: Seriously. http://artjonesforcongressman.com/holocaust/
EDIT#2: If you find holocaust denial offensive, which is certainly your right, that link is offensive

binaryhermit fucked around with this message at 14:24 on Feb 2, 2018

# ? Feb 2, 2018 14:21

Trevor Hale: Dec 8, 2008; What have I become, my Swedish friend?

binaryhermit posted:

At least my congresscritter, Dan Lipinski is facing a primary challenge that's semi-credible.

On a negative note, a real life Illinois Nazi is running unopposed in the Republican primary.

EDIT: Seriously. http://artjonesforcongressman.com/holocaust/
EDIT#2: If you find holocaust denial offensive, which is certainly your right, that link is offensive

What up, fellow southwest side Goon

# ? Feb 2, 2018 15:25

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

Lipinski sucks hard and I really hope Newman can knock him off.

e: Illinois 3rd posters taking over the thread

# ? Feb 2, 2018 15:27

TMMadman: Sep 9, 2003; by Fluffdaddy

I think I'm also just inside the 3rd district

# ? Feb 2, 2018 15:57

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Does anyone know anything about Fritz Kaegi? He is running for Cook County Assessor as a Democrat, trying to unseat Berrios. Just got a mailer about an event, and it is like three blocks away from me. Tempted to go, but I'm not going to bother if he sucks. I'm ready to vote for nearly anyone who is not Berrios though.

# ? Feb 2, 2018 16:01

dominator: Oct 1, 2003; Load Emotion File Happy_Human.bin
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He's the Our Revolution/Berniecrat pick

# ? Feb 2, 2018 16:11

binaryhermit: Mar 29, 2015

Trevor Hale posted:

What up, fellow southwest side Goon

I'm actually about as far away from the southwest side as you can get in the 3rd congressional district... Lockport.

And to whoever says they hope Newman wins, so do I.

I read somewhere Newman has an internal poll showing she's up 5 points in the primary. My head calls bullshit but my heart hopes she is winning.

I'm guessing if Newman wins, Lipinski admits he's a Republican and the Republican party kicks the Illinois Nazi off the ballot and replaces him with Lipinski. It's not like they can't do it, they did it to that crazy woman who won the nomination for Congress who thought gay rights and abortion caused tornados, if I recall correctly her name was Susanne Atanus.

EDIT: I was wrong about Atanus. But I strongly suspect the Republicans will do just about anything they can to keep the Illinois Nazi out of Congress. And before Trump, I'd say he has no shot anyway.

binaryhermit fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Feb 2, 2018

# ? Feb 2, 2018 18:18

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

Bird in a Blender posted:

Does anyone know anything about Fritz Kaegi? He is running for Cook County Assessor as a Democrat, trying to unseat Berrios. Just got a mailer about an event, and it is like three blocks away from me. Tempted to go, but I'm not going to bother if he sucks. I'm ready to vote for nearly anyone who is not Berrios though.

He's really good. He knows a lot about municipal finance and is running because he cares about the office, not just getting Berrios out.

He's also gaining strength with endorsements, I think Berrios is going to be the sacrificial lamb to make people think real change is happening, like with Anita Alvarez in 2016.

# ? Feb 2, 2018 18:39

KDdidit: Mar 2, 2007; Grimey Drawer

Brookfielder here in Lipinkski's district. I get a bunch of stuff for Marie from Indivisible groups.

binaryhermit posted:

I read somewhere Newman has an internal poll showing she's up 5 points in the primary. My head calls bullshit but my heart hopes she is winning.

Sort of, but sadly, not really. It was from January 9th.

�We have results of businesswoman Marie Newman�s polling in the primary race against longtime incumbent Dan Lipinski. Newman leads by 5 points after voters are told about Lipinski�s conservative voting record. Without that messaging, however, Lipinski would crush an unknown Newman.�

Edit, the article was from January 9th. The memo it was based on was from Decemeber 7th, so lot of time has passed.

https://www.marienewmanforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Newman-IL-03-Brief-Poll-Memo.pdf

# ? Feb 2, 2018 18:45

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

The X-man cometh posted:

He's really good. He knows a lot about municipal finance and is running because he cares about the office, not just getting Berrios out.

He's also gaining strength with endorsements, I think Berrios is going to be the sacrificial lamb to make people think real change is happening, like with Anita Alvarez in 2016.

This makes me happy that he's actually a legit candidate. I'll be voting for him.

# ? Feb 2, 2018 20:33

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d57WlyvHA-I

ahahhahaha that is unbelievably offensive its amazing
if i didnt know better i'd say bruce rauner is using ives as controlled opposition to make himself look better

mastershakeman fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Feb 2, 2018

# ? Feb 2, 2018 23:05

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

mastershakeman posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d57WlyvHA-I

ahahhahaha that is unbelievably offensive its amazing
if i didnt know better i'd say bruce rauner is using ives as controlled opposition to make himself look better

Least it was smart enough not to use a Hispanic as the gang member stand in.

Though the black teacher is a bit on the nose.

# ? Feb 2, 2018 23:26

dominator: Oct 1, 2003; Load Emotion File Happy_Human.bin
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Dexo posted:

Least it was smart enough not to use a Hispanic as the gang member stand in.

Though the black teacher is a bit on the nose.

Think he is supposed to be AntiFa so makes sense. But holy cow that ad is batshit insane

# ? Feb 2, 2018 23:30

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

It shouldn't surprise anyone. She had a fundraiser scheduled with a guy who is an openly white supremacist. She cancelled it today because Brady pleaded with her to do so.

# ? Feb 3, 2018 00:49

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

that new Ives ad...yikes. actually makes Rauner seem good lol

https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/ives-ad-targets-transgender-community-immigrants-and-women-who-get-abortions/

binaryhermit posted:

I'm actually about as far away from the southwest side as you can get in the 3rd congressional district... Lockport.

What up fellow Lockport goon (grew up there but still live nearby)

# ? Feb 4, 2018 04:23

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

It's certainly ONE way for Ives to get her name out....

# ? Feb 4, 2018 05:42

FuturePastNow: May 19, 2014

https://twitter.com/TheMostAngular/status/960342214382505984

# ? Feb 5, 2018 15:07

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Saw the Ives ad in the wild this morning, I think it was airing during the morning NBC news, saw it while flipping around. I hope she wins the primary because my cat would win a race against her.

# ? Feb 5, 2018 17:18

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# ? May 25, 2024 22:21

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

Ives ran a different ad during the Super Bowl. Also saw a giant Ives sign in someone's lawn on the way home.

# ? Feb 5, 2018 21:30

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