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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Sounds like something is going on re:that meeting between the top six yesterday and Zuma. They announced a meeting of the national working committee immediately after and now a meeting of the national executive:

https://twitter.com/samkelemaseko/status/960588163193372672

The fact these have been rapidly called with the state of the nation on Thursday does suggest something is deffo afoot with the intention of getting it announced on Thursday.

The rumour mill is in overdrive - some are saying (including malema) Zuma flat out refused to resign early and has called for them to push him out for shut up while other rumours are indicating he agreed to leave if he was granted immunity from prosecution.

Something's happening though

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Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
Granting him immunity from prosecution would be a horrible move. I hope hes forced out.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

The SA parliament just postponed Zuma state of nation speech. It was supposed to happen Thursday, the parliament didn't give a new date.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Blut posted:

Granting him immunity from prosecution would be a horrible move. I hope hes forced out.

I think bitter memories of the fall of mbeki will strongly dissuade the nec from pushing for a recall vote that could ramp up internal divisions with an election year in the offing.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Do we have any goons from Ethiopia?

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

Sounds like the talks are going great!

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

The ANC to announce their final decision at mid day South African time - Ramaphosa left the NEC meeting after several hours to deliver a message to Zuma and returned shortly before midnight.

Some sources are saying Zuma has been given 48 hours to voluntarily resign before a recall vote, other that the NEC has decided to move forward with a recall after Zuma asked for 3 more months last night before he resigns.

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 09:44 on Feb 13, 2018

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Press conference pushed back until 2pm

However:

https://twitter.com/SABCNewsOnline/status/963329931899006976

Despatching two people considered close allies of Zuma to plunge the knife it seems.

Looks like he's done fallen

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Well good to know there was a ground down the pit, i guess.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

The ANC has called a special meeting of their assembly caucus tomorrow.

Rumours swirling Zuma is just going to ignore the recall notice in open defiance of the party and force them to remove him through a no confidence motion in the assembly.

The hardest possible zexit

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



How is Ramaphosa when it comes to the AIDS epidemic, or medicine in general? I'm assuming a lot better than Zuma.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

ANC statement on Zuma in full


quote:

The National Executive Committee (NEC) of the African National Congress (ANC) convened a special meeting on Monday, 12th February 2018 at the Saint George Hotel, Tshwane. The meeting was called to reflect on the current situation as it pertains to the position of the President of the Republic of South Africa, Comrade Jacob Zuma.

The NEC received a report from the Officials on their engagement with President Zuma. These engagements had been informed by the commitment to pursue firstly the interest of the country and the ANC and the determination to handle the matter with utmost dignity.

The NEC noted the report of the Officials that the President had agreed in principle to resign and had proposed time frames extending from three to six months. While appreciating President Zuma’s proposal, the NEC noted that South Africa is going through a period of uncertainty and anxiety as a result of the unresolved matter of transition. Further that this uncertainty and anxiety will erode the renewed hope and confidence among South Africans since the 54th National Conference of the ANC.

The National Executive Committee firmly believes that this situation requires us to act with urgency in order to steer our country towards greater levels of unity, renewal and hope. We are determined to restore the integrity of the public institutions, create political stability and urgent economic recovery. Some of the matters we are contending with are the opportunistic manoeuvers by the opposition in parliament including motions of no confidence in the President, calls for dissolution for parliament and other desperate acts. The ANC’s approach to this matter has, at all times, been informed by the interests of the South African people.

Sensitive of the need to handle this matter with dignity, the NEC once again sent a delegation to brief the President Jacob Zuma about the need to shorten the timeframes so that this matter is speedily resolved. The NEC received feedback from the delegation that the President of the Republic did not accede to a shorter time frame.

The NEC therefore decided as follows:

To recall its deployee, Comrade Jacob Zuma, in accordance with Rule 12.2.21.2 of the ANC Constitution, which accords the NEC the authority to “recall any public representative”.

There should be continuing interaction between the officials of the ANC and the President of the Republic.

The decision by the NEC to recall its deployee was taken only after exhaustive discussion on the impact such a recall would have on the country, the ANC and the functioning of government.

The decision of the NEC provides certainty to the people of South Africa at a time when the economic and social challenges facing the country require urgent and resolute response by all sections of society.

It is critical that South Africans are united around the task of growth, job creation and economic transformation.

This decision will be communicated publicly and through appropriate forums to all structures of the ANC, Alliance Structures and all the Mass Democratic Formations.

All necessary parliamentary processes that arise from this decision will now ensue.


So basically Zuma tried to talk his way into resigning months from now, was told no, refused to resign immediately and has now been recalled by the party - they are expecting a response from him by tomorrow. If he digs in and refuses to stand down and defies the NEC that leaves only a no confidence vote to blast him out - but that's the nuclear option.

Interestingly when delivering the statement the spokesperson insisted that its not because Zuma did anything wrong but merely a necessary step to resolve the two centres of power in the party cause by Zuma remaining president after Ramaphosa's election which is a uh interesting postion

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010
So is trading Zuma for Ramaphosa basically just like trading Mugabe for Mnangagwa, or is there some light at the end of the tunnel? I mean at least it's not Zuma's ex-wife, but a guy who made his personal net worth of half a billion dollars during his tenure as a politician is usually a good sign of being insanely corrupt.

Still, I guess he can't be worse than Zuma unless he starts promoting rhino horn & ivory powder to slather on your virgins as a cure for AIDS. Cape Town sure has unfortunately done a great job of showing that the opposition is also probably incompetent to govern.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Ramaphosa is one of the wealthiest men in South Africa through perfectly legal channels with deep ties to the largest companies in SA after leaving politics (before he returned only a few years ago), he's perceived as less vulnerable to influence and money of a handful of figures in the way Zuma is (who had been taking kickbacks since the start of his political career and bought and sold influence in government to fund) and doesn't stand a top of a patronage network like what Zuma has built parallel to the party.

Does that mean he's 100% clean? Probably not but hell be more driven to sate "the market" and business sectors through policy rather than a handful of explicit patrons - I would expect some state asset sell offs and other "liberalising" programs to kick in to try to stabilise the rand and tidy up the balance sheet.

I see Ramaphosa as less blatantly corrupt focused on self enrichment and more hand in glove with big business.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
I'd agree with the above. Ramaphosa made most of his money while not actively involved in politics. He probably did abuse his political connections doing so, but thats quite a bit less bad (and is extremely common in the West too) than blatently taking bribes while in office.

Ramaphosa has also been making lots of encouraging noises on fighting graft so far. If he follows through with that, and actually moves against senior ANC leaders, we'll know hes genuine fairly soon.

He was also Mandela's successor of choice before he quit politics and moved into the business world, which probably isn't worth much but does add to my optimism.

Blut fucked around with this message at 15:25 on Feb 13, 2018

Madkal
Feb 11, 2008

Fallen Rib

mobby_6kl posted:

I certainly didn't viewed South Africa as an English speaking country, but actually visiting it makes it clear that it's definitely the lingua franca there. Literally everyone I encountered, including fast food employees, street vendors or even beggars all spoke decent English, so I kind of do now. I associated Hong Kong way more with the British for example yet outside of Central or TST I ran into the language barrier pretty regularly.

Are there any recommended books on the history of South Africa? Despite visiting many museums while there and trying to read about it here and there I still have pretty big gaps in understanding how things got the way they are.

I quite liked this book.
It's interesting to hear people talk about South Africa as an English country. I grew up in SA, went to a private school where everyone spoke English, hung out with my english speaking friends and family, played sports with the them, socialized with them, went to the same social hubs as them, listened to the same english South African music as them etc, so it was quite a shock to me after graduating high school to find out how widespread Afrikaans is.

As for as Ramaphosa, I always viewed him as a continuation of Mbeki ie a fairly educated guy who is socially detached from the people. I am sure he will make the right kind of noise against corruption and probably implement some good programs to stimulate the economy that will be unpopular, all the while ignoring the crazy poverty that goes on in the country.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

President Mobutu Zuma Presents: Africa Thread

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/eNCA/status/963685563726524416

lmao

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Well, Happy Valentines Day from the people of South Africa, i guess.

geegee
Aug 6, 2005

Do the Scorpions still exist or are these their replacement?

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

geegee posted:

Do the Scorpions still exist or are these their replacement?

The Scorpions got broken up in 2009 in the fallout of the Mbeki/Zuma feud - Zuma evading charges on the grounds the investigation into him launched by the Scorpions was politically motivated laid the groundwork for them getting disbanded as a solo entity.

The Hawks are their replacement and deal with the same issues but importantly are directly rolled into the police service and over seen by the commissioner.


Also Zuma is speaking now...

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/AdriaanBasson/status/963757616504672256

Vote of no confidence scheduled for tomorrow

Edit:

https://twitter.com/AdriaanBasson/status/963759148923084800

drat it jz speak straight for once

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Feb 14, 2018

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
This is all very promising.

Its still highly unlikely I'll grant but seeing Zuma do actual jail time would be fantastic.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

SABC now has a CNN-style countdown timer for the ANC deadline.



*extremely batman narrator voice* MEANWHILE, IN NIGERIA:

- More bullshit claims from the army about Boko Haram and Shekau fleeing "in hijab"
- Hisssssss leave me alone lads

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Feb 14, 2018

Madkal
Feb 11, 2008

Fallen Rib
Looks like Zuma is taking one from the Mugabe playbook.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

So you think he'll resign rather than face the humiliation of a no-confidence vote?

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

So you think he'll resign rather than face the humiliation of a no-confidence vote?
If Mugabe was still in power i would worry more about foreign interventions but honestly i think he may just try to run to the border and spend the rest of his life claiming legitimity.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

I can't imagine a foreign intervention in SA, but I suppose scenario B is fairly likely if he's going to face charges.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

I can't imagine a foreign intervention in SA,
Realistically no, you are right, but those days i consider 2% crazy insane unlikely chances at least possible. Too many "They can't be THAT stupid and short sighted" turned into "i can't believe they are THAT stupid and short sighted".

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Feb 14, 2018

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I reckon he'd probably accept a no confidence motion and belligerently insist he did nothing wrong, any trial with Zuma in the dock could still drag down sitting members of the top six - the Gupta arrest today was over the Vrede Dairy case which Ace Magashule, the current anc secretary general, is up to his eyeballs in (the hawks raided his offices over it not that long ago)

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

I honestly think that if things really turned that bad and he risks prison, he will just choose exile and run to the airport. But hey a few trials may be fun.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Toplowtech posted:

I honestly think that if things really turned that bad and he risks prison, he will just choose exile and run to the airport. But hey a few trials may be fun.

There was all that talk about a secret Dubai escape plan a while back

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

For Ramaphosa, is it better politically to pardon Zuma or let him go to trial?

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

For Ramaphosa, is it better politically to pardon Zuma or let him go to trial?

To win back drifting voters I would say go to trial - though he's still got to deal with the elements of the party formerly aligned to Zuma who managed to win a couple of key spots at the last conference, so for party cohesion and to hold up open warfare from the premiers trying to frustrate him a trial that could implicate them might be too toxic.

Demands that a loyal and long time cadre be spared the indignity of jail time from those that where happily on the take in his time might shift the party machinery to pardon if there's a conviction.

Could lead to a massacre in some provinces though when it comes to election time.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Ramaphosa as Gerald Ford

Posture Pal
Nov 22, 2007


Morgan Tsvangirai passed away today.

chestnut santabag
Jul 3, 2006

And Zuma bows out rather than having to be forced out: Zuma resigns

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

And Zuma just resigned. Well good luck to SA for their next President.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

:rip: jz

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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Sayonara Rapist Cocksucker! :byewhore:

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