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I would rather get filthy rich off poker because that allows me to mentally invade my opponents by looking them in their eyes, invading their souls, and breaking them. Directly.
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Feb 16, 2018 01:18
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Moridin920 posted:Alright well on crypto markets where the exchanges are super thin and comprised of tons of people reading the same "how to trade 101" stuff then yeah. Of course it could still just be dumb luck in a big bull run. i think that any time there's this much volatility, euphoria, and level of inexperience among participants, TA and (most importantly) good risk management can be profitable
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Feb 16, 2018 01:20
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Are you actually chart reading though or momentum trading? I mean objectively you recognize it isn't math or scientific basis or anything it's astrology with candlestick charts right. e: Also you've been trading for what a year? Luck definitely explains it.  I'm not saying you're not smart and that risk management isn't important also and whatnot but it has been a pretty favorable market for trading. The trick is can you maintain outperformance in years when the market sucks and then over time average out to better than market performance?
Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 01:24 on Feb 16, 2018 |
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Feb 16, 2018 01:21
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 lmao I pray to god that this is true and they have been doing this poo poo for 10 days now and only just acknowledging it.
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Feb 16, 2018 01:21
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Well, on the one hand yeah obv "over authorized" is not a real thing. On the other hand as someone who has sold stuff online and dealt with merchant processors / banks I'm amazed they were able to run a $650 transaction 8 times and the bank happily ran it every time, esp if it was resulting in overdrafts. In my experience even 1 duplicate looking charge will often get a hold thrown on it, and for way less than $650. Fraudulent merchants do exist. USAA isn't quite in the total clear on that one.
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Feb 16, 2018 01:25
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Moridin920 posted:Well, on the one hand yeah obv "over authorized" is not a real thing. They probably should have thrown a hold on it; but it is 100% Coinbase's fault for sending through the auth requests at all. And perhaps the bitcoiner's fault for giving Coinbase all of their info. I do like how a lot of the bitcoiners seem to be blaming specific banks directly and letting Coinbase off the hook for the gently caress up. Some were even saying that it was the bank tying to steal the person's money, and obviously not Coinbase. Just pure delusion
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Feb 16, 2018 01:35
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Yeah definitely. I don't even know how you would do that accidentally. It is or should be a simple matter to look at the transaction history and reverse the 7 duplicate ones, too. Then I'm sure the bank would waive the fees if you call them and explain your idiot coin store ran the transaction 8 times by error. It sounds like Coinbase just does that poo poo and hopes people don't notice then runs the ones who do around hoping they'll give up and then at the end of the day a certain % of people just get boned.
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Feb 16, 2018 01:39
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Uranium 235 posted:i believed and said all the same stuff you've said about TA, until i started trading crypto and had it work for me. i've beaten the crypto markets for the last 8 months by a very large margin Tell us your current predictions and positions so we can laugh at you when your lucky streak runs out.
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Feb 16, 2018 01:40
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wide stance posted:Guys Coinbase, which makes over a billion in revenue hand over fist legally with their near monopoly, is totally running an exit scam right now and it's definitely not the most obvious software glitch in the world affecting an extremely specific group of users. e.g. they're not corrupt, just hilariously incompetent just like all other endeavors that have ever involved bitcoin
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Feb 16, 2018 01:42
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Funnily enough, Blizzard also hosed up and charged people multiple times some weeks ago. I also seem to remember they've hosed that up before, but couldn't find any references to it quickly because all news sites talk about the current gently caress-up.
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Feb 16, 2018 01:42
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Moridin920 posted:Are you actually chart reading though or momentum trading? quote:I mean objectively you recognize it isn't math or scientific basis or anything it's astrology with candlestick charts right. quote:e: Also you've been trading for what a year? Luck definitely explains it. as for whether i can keep it up, i'll just have to wait and see. i do believe that this market will become less profitable to trade in the future
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Feb 16, 2018 01:44
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PostNouveau posted:Tell us your current predictions and positions so we can laugh at you when your lucky streak runs out. my position right now is all cash, but i traded btc and ltc earlier today Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Feb 16, 2018 |
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Feb 16, 2018 01:46
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all your money stolen from your bank account? overdraft fees? bitcoin users unaffected 
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Feb 16, 2018 01:48
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ymgve posted:Funnily enough, Blizzard also hosed up and charged people multiple times some weeks ago. I also seem to remember they've hosed that up before, but couldn't find any references to it quickly because all news sites talk about the current gently caress-up. That article sounds like a problem where Blizzard wasn't activating people's keys on payment, but were still letting them buy multiple copies. As far as I understand the difference here is that Coinbase is taking old payment information and then rerunning it anywhere from two to fifty more times, and then entering a forced transaction code to make the payment validate.
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Feb 16, 2018 01:51
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Uranium 235 posted:i don't really make predictions, i just decide in the moment whether i believe there's a low-risk entry for a trade or not. most of my chart-watching is to identify potential setups for low-risk trades. they either come or they don't. if they come then i build a position based on how much i'm willing to risk versus how much potential profit i believe there is I'm reminded of that Satoshi Dice website where you could make bets you'd win 98% of the time for a small payout, and some dude was on reddit bitching about how he'd lost all his money on one and how was that even possible it was so low risk?
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Feb 16, 2018 01:54
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Uranium 235 posted:why not both? i use charts every day. if i see that something is quickly going up in price, i'll buy in when it consolidates temporarily and only risk a small amount in case it doesn't continue up. i think that would qualify as momentum trading, but i think that accounts for a minority of my profits. most of my trades are equilibrium breaks and oversold bounces It can be both it is just that I think one has merit and the other is fake so when you say TA I'm trying to see what % of that is really poring over charts looking for patterns like 'head and shoulders' or 'cup and handle' and what % of that is you successfully riding trends and movements you notice while watching the charts. Oversold/overbought isn't really even TA, afaik - that's just basic 'things move in cycles, if it moves drastically one way odds are good it will pull back.' Uranium 235 posted:i don't really make predictions, i just decide in the moment whether i believe there's a low-risk entry for a trade or not. Ah see this isn't the TA I mean. I'm talking about people that will pull a chart up and draw many lines and shapes and declare there is an auspicious 80% chance of upward movement if it hits the green line but if it hits the red line maybe not. And then if that doesn't happen well nothing is 100% accurate they're just playing the odds dontcha know. If you're going "well, everyone and their grandma is talking about $6000 so if it hits that after a precipitous fall then I bet it will bounce up thus decent entry point to watch for" then that's just smart trading imo. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Feb 16, 2018 |
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Feb 16, 2018 01:58
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PostNouveau posted:I'm reminded of that Satoshi Dice website where you could make bets you'd win 98% of the time for a small payout, and some dude was on reddit bitching about how he'd lost all his money on one and how was that even possible it was so low risk?
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Feb 16, 2018 01:59
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Uranium 235 posted:it's more like poker than roulette Is it though? Who is playing the other hand?
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Feb 16, 2018 02:02
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Moridin920 posted:It can be both it is just that I think one has merit and the other is fake so when you say TA I'm trying to see what % of that is really poring over charts looking for patterns like 'head and shoulders' or 'cup and handle' and what % of that is you successfully riding trends and movements you notice while watching the charts. i occasionally draw lines on my charts but that's generally when i'm sharing the chart with someone else and making it easy for them to see what i'm seeing. you don't have to draw lines to recognize a head and shoulders or ascending triangle
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Feb 16, 2018 02:07
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PostNouveau posted:Is it though? Who is playing the other hand? i'm trying to buy from other traders who are selling when i think the risk versus reward is low, and selling to other traders when i think it's high but i think the more important similarity to poker is that i can control how much risk i'm taking
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Feb 16, 2018 02:11
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Minimalist Program posted:Haha, yes, it's insane; It would be like,uh, some guy with an insanely valuable rear end storing the entire rear end in one tight pair of jeans that make everyone look at him when he walks down manhattan. Grats on the thread title btw
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Feb 16, 2018 02:11
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I slapfight with moridin a lot but he's right on this one. The only reason you think analysts can predict anything is because the cryptocurrency market is set to hyperspeed compared to real stocks so you can predict literally anything and have it come true since the market is having 100% swings in a period of weeks.
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Feb 16, 2018 02:18
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Coiners itt, please post your usd actual money in the crypto market today. Tia
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Feb 16, 2018 02:23
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Uranium 235 posted:other traders Yeah I think you're oversimplifying it. You're definitely taking a trade with only one other party. But your success has to do with market movements rather than the actions of your counterparty, so it's way closer to the randomness of roulette than poker. Edit: It's even got the big green 00 -- when the exchange you're using runs away with everyone's money. PostNouveau fucked around with this message at 02:30 on Feb 16, 2018 |
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Feb 16, 2018 02:24
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Uranium 235 posted:oversold/overbought is definitely TA, i'm looking at the relative strength index and volume on different timeframes, plus previous price action (based on candles), when deciding whether to make an entry or exit based on oversold/overbought conditions. it's more than just saying "well gee it's dropped a lot so it has to go up sometime". if i had just been acting on that idea then i would have lost a lot of money in january Eh. RSI=100-100/(1+RS) = some bullshit quote:plus previous price action (based on candles) and that will get you in trouble in the long run
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Feb 16, 2018 02:31
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Predicting price movements based on charts has been absolutely, comprehensively, debunked and if you think you can predict them you are 100%, absolutely wrong and delusional.
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Feb 16, 2018 02:50
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https://twitter.com/icowid/status/963842751279243264 a markov bot informed by ICO whitepapers and erowid trip reports
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Feb 16, 2018 03:03
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So I've been reading the original bitcoin whitepaper trying to get a better understanding of how it all works, and found this quotequote:A block header with no transactions would be about 80 bytes. If we suppose blocks are generated every 10 minutes, 80 bytes * 6 * 24 * 365 = 4.2MB per year.
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Feb 16, 2018 03:07
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With no transactions
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Feb 16, 2018 03:08
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Moridin920 posted:With no transactions quote:Old blocks can then be compacted by stubbing off branches of the tree. The interior hashes do
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Feb 16, 2018 03:10
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abigserve posted:Predicting price movements based on charts has been absolutely, comprehensively, debunked and if you think you can predict them you are 100%, absolutely wrong and delusional. No u see i made some money so im a genius. Literally same thing people trading XIV was bragging about for the past few years before they got burned. Also, I'm lolling at "I outperformed the market" do you mean the speculative asset that increased 20x in value in 9 months? I cheer on every non-institutional buttcoiner making money on this stupidity, but pretending to know what you're doing beyond "I love to bet black" makes you look like an idiot.
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Feb 16, 2018 03:25
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Wassbix posted:No u see i made some money so im a genius. Literally same thing people trading XIV was bragging about for the past few years before they got burned. Wait a minute. Since I don't know that much about trading when they were saying people were "outperforming the market" in defense of Technical Analysis I thought they were saying that people's predictions were outperforming the market. Like there is a huge following for some "Analysts" that post all of their charts and try and get followers on twitter to be seen as experts by making correct predictions. I thought "Outperforming the market" here was having a number of correct guesses on the coinflips being interpreted as someone seeing the code in the matrix. If they meant making profits was outperforming the market then no poo poo people made profits. Anyone who bought anything before December of 2017 outperformed the market simply by possessing cryptocurrencies. One of the pennycoins "Tron" was like 0.002 cents in November and was 30 cents at one point. That 30,000% rise wasn't predictable and anyone that got in on it proved nothing by doing so.
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Feb 16, 2018 03:55
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Generally when people say "the market" they mean the SP500, or a very similar benchmark (usually SP500). And yeah.
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Feb 16, 2018 03:57
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If technical analysis was possible computers would already be doing it infinitely more efficiently than any person possibly could But, in this age, where patterns can be determined in virtually any arbitrarily complex data using matching learning, no one has cracked that nugget yet But it's possible you are smarter than every other person on planet earth
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Feb 16, 2018 04:05
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VictorianQueerLit posted:Wait a minute. Since I don't know that much about trading when they were saying people were "outperforming the market" in defense of Technical Analysis I thought they were saying that people's predictions were outperforming the market. Like there is a huge following for some "Analysts" that post all of their charts and try and get followers on twitter to be seen as experts by making correct predictions. I thought "Outperforming the market" here was having a number of correct guesses on the coinflips being interpreted as someone seeing the code in the matrix. Vic, dude is the real markets. Govt controlled
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Feb 16, 2018 04:11
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abigserve posted:If technical analysis was possible computers would already be doing it infinitely more efficiently than any person possibly could The cryptochats have been boring lately but they can set you straight with their current conversation It isn't about the charts at all but time of day. quote:austinography - Today at 10:04 PM
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Feb 16, 2018 04:13
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abigserve posted:If technical analysis was possible computers would already be doing it infinitely more efficiently than any person possibly could
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Feb 16, 2018 04:13
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It's Hawaiian shirt Friday tomorrow and all bitcoin has are polos and khakis.
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Feb 16, 2018 04:14
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Unfortunately Bitcoins are also like Garfield and hate Mondays so make sure to sell all your coins Sunday night.
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Feb 16, 2018 04:15
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Uranium 235 posted:as for whether i can keep it up, i'll just have to wait and see. i do believe that this market will become less profitable to trade in the future The problem is, it's so volatile and detached from any practical value that you stand to lose pretty much everything you have in crypto when it crashes. And you can't see it coming. What has worked for the past year is going to fail miserably at some point. It seems like your trading strategy is less based on the market moving than what I would have done, though. I'm looking at it from a more macroscopic view (for example, I bought a lot of AMD stock somewhere in the $4.xx range under the assumption it wouldn't tank below $3.80 and I'd be able to sell it at $6-$8 probably, if you check amd stock price it worked out way better than that and what shares I have left will likely be worth even more in 2019). I've been doing pen & paper buys and sells since mid january or so and I would have made a 5x return on my initial investment after taxes. I didn't do any math or TA. I just looked at the graphs and got lucky to predict dips and peaks. I would have bought a bit before the bottom, sold a bit or a lot before the peak, but either way I would have come out ahead and right now I'd be holding 0 crypto. Except I bought 0 crypto and will not buy crypto so it was fantasy bubble trader. edit: I get that you're playing it fairly safe now after taking on whatever degree of risk earlier - you've already come out ahead and if you lost everything you're holding in crypto today you'd still be ahead. I hope. Khorne fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Feb 16, 2018 |
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Feb 16, 2018 04:22
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