(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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Probably balkanization or it would be a lot less developed and shittier. The West has never cared for China and would probably let them rot, unlike South Korea where the US had an active stake in the matter.
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Feb 4, 2018 17:24
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| # ? May 24, 2024 01:50 |
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it's difficult to imagine a unified China under the Nationalists. Warlordism and balkanization would probably result, with at least one of those becoming Communist anyway and some others being Western puppets.
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Feb 4, 2018 17:39
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Might possibly become the cheap labour capital of the world a lot earlier.
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Feb 4, 2018 17:45
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Xelkelvos posted:What would a China where the Communists never survived to boot out the Nationalists even look like? (Other than an obvious NATO ally with a raging hateboner for Japan) India
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Feb 4, 2018 18:06
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Xelkelvos posted:What would a China where the Communists never survived to boot out the Nationalists even look like? (Other than an obvious NATO ally with a raging hateboner for Japan) Taiwan but bigger
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Feb 4, 2018 18:25
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was the shanghai commune cool? i dont know anything about that
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Feb 4, 2018 20:40
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Frijolero posted:Probably balkanization or it would be a lot less developed and shittier. If collapse is that likely, then there'd probably be a Chinese Civil War instead of (or in addition to) a Korean one where the Stalinists try to topple the Nationalists with their own Communists (or prop up any remaining ChiComs with their own loyalists) and the US tries to prop up the Nationalists as best as possible to deny the Communists.
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Feb 4, 2018 21:06
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Picking one choice out of a list is not hard yet goons screw it up anyway.
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Feb 4, 2018 21:10
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Inescapable Duck posted:Might possibly become the cheap labour capital of the world a lot earlier. wait when did china become india?
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Feb 5, 2018 02:57
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https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/967721979813023744 resist the cult of personality!
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Feb 26, 2018 21:59
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What does this actually mean for China going forward?
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Feb 26, 2018 22:01
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Dreddout posted:What does this actually mean for China going forward? the entire future of the chinese political system painfully built during the reform era and functioned pretty well for the last 25 years just got thrown out the window I would not be surprised if in future history books the decline and fall of China's red dynasty is said to have begun this week Typo has issued a correction as of 22:03 on Feb 26, 2018 |
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Feb 26, 2018 22:01
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Feb 26, 2018 22:06
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As a Westerner from the best Democracy on earth, I gotta say, this is highly alarming.
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Feb 26, 2018 22:37
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Frijolero posted:As a Westerner from the best Democracy on earth, I gotta say, this is highly alarming. the party rules comrade, that is what is under threat
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Feb 26, 2018 22:58
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Dreddout posted:What does this actually mean for China going forward? I'll cop to not having the most thorough knowledge of China's internal political landscape, but if I remember right the party General Secretary is functionally much more relevant to actual government decisions than the President, and is also not term-limited, so this is likely more symbolic than anything else. Symbolic of what, precisely, I couldn't say.
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Feb 26, 2018 23:03
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Xi has taken a more active role in military matters right? It's probably a security thing
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Feb 26, 2018 23:11
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the American presidency shouldn’t have term limits either.
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Feb 26, 2018 23:13
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i think its too late to try weekend at franklin's
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Feb 26, 2018 23:15
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I’m talking about Trump.
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Feb 26, 2018 23:17
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I'll cop to not having the most thorough knowledge of China's internal political landscape, but if I remember right the party General Secretary is functionally much more relevant to actual government decisions than the President, and is also not term-limited, so this is likely more symbolic than anything else. Yeeeah no. Xi Jinping's rise up the chain involved purging the entirety of the Jiang Zemin-led consensus that had been in charge more or less since Deng. Xi has been the dictator of China ever since he's been president (especially since taking down big dogs like Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai), so this is just a declaration of what most people already suspected. The real downside of this is that getting rid of the ten year succession policy means all the Politburo and provincial leaders are gonna start getting the knives out in case he dies.
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Feb 26, 2018 23:37
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I'll cop to not having the most thorough knowledge of China's internal political landscape, but if I remember right the party General Secretary is functionally much more relevant to actual government decisions than the President, and is also not term-limited, so this is likely more symbolic than anything else. Symbolic of him not leaving his party posts after his 10 yrs are up That and the recent rounds of purges means he's clearly in violation of the Leninist principle of collective leadership and democratic centralism
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Feb 26, 2018 23:39
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Bro Dad posted:Yeeeah no. Xi Jinping's rise up the chain involved purging the entirety of the Jiang Zemin-led consensus that had been in charge more or less since Deng. Xi has been the dictator of China ever since he's been president (especially since taking down big dogs like Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai), so this is just a declaration of what most people already suspected. the victory of the shanghai "clique" wasn't a consensus and this realistically just means another 5-year term, 2 at most. xi could have just handed the presidency to someone else while keeping his posts as general secretary and cmc chairman indefinitely. putting this change through both the party and state apparatuses means subjecting his legitimacy as leader to the process. he's popular here and is confident in success. that's all there is to it
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Feb 27, 2018 01:10
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the years between now and 2035 are the years for realizing "socialist modernization" and the party has set ambitious goals for that period. they know better than anyone else that they're expected to follow through
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Feb 27, 2018 01:12
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What if he controls the entire 'process'? Then its not him subjecting himself to the process, but attempting to grant legitimacy for his power grab. I don't think the independence of any upper level figure can be guaranteed, after the anti-corruption purges that Xi lead.
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Feb 27, 2018 01:18
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Xi is making a bet that things won't come off the rails domestically, that the US will continue tripping over its dick, and that any diplomatic squabbles will be ironed over because China will become the near-Hegemon of an East Asia economic bloc that'll surpass the North Atlantic one that has dominated the world economy for 300 years.
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Feb 27, 2018 01:21
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Its not a bad bet, when it comes to the US. But I'm not so sure the rest of South & East Asia is gonna fall in line. China doesn't seem to care about any other country on even a superficial level, and feels its always justified in violating other countries territoral waters and what not. Absolutely no respect for anyone that's not China. That's gonna create a backlash. Add that India is also on the up and up, and it may be bad news.
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Feb 27, 2018 01:28
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rudatron posted:What if he controls the entire 'process'? Then its not him subjecting himself to the process, but attempting to grant legitimacy for his power grab. the cpc DID have a corruption problem, though, and the campaign is wildly popular, as is the chinese government generally. independent polls regularly show an approval rating of more than 80 percent. the idea of the anti-corruption campaign as a purge only holds water in the west. people here love it
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Feb 27, 2018 01:50
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KaptainKrunk posted:Xi is making a bet that things won't come off the rails domestically, that the US will continue tripping over its dick, and that any diplomatic squabbles will be ironed over because China will become the near-Hegemon of an East Asia economic bloc that'll surpass the North Atlantic one that has dominated the world economy for 300 years. Vietnam has preferred the friendship of the US over that of China for years. Taiwan is dependent on the friendship of the US for its very existence. South Korea may come to prefer China to America, but, Trump notwithstanding, there are reasons to believe that won't happen. Japan and China won't be allies this century, probably.
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Feb 27, 2018 01:57
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Dude, get real. It still has a corruption problem, except now the people on the receiving end of the grift are pro-Xi Jingping. The actual campagin had something like a 99% conviction rate - you don't think that's a little suspcious?
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Feb 27, 2018 01:59
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rudatron posted:Dude, get real. It still has a corruption problem, except now the people on the receiving end of the grift are pro-Xi Jingping. Supposedly, per Wikipedia, US federal prosecutors have a 93% conviction rate. I read the Justice Department source and was only able to get to "above 90%" before my eyes glazed over. The actual nature of this corruption purge is a bit opaque to us. Is it actual corruption, or an enemies list, or both? Almost certainly both.
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Feb 27, 2018 02:09
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rudatron posted:Dude, get real. It still has a corruption problem, except now the people on the receiving end of the grift are pro-Xi Jingping. Is it more suspicious, from a public viewpoint, than criminal justice in general? The US federal system was at 93% in 2012, ostensibly free Japan at 99% in general through most of the past few decades. Rather than overweening prosecutors, it can as easily represent, and as easily be perceived as representing, an underweening system which only takes the most blatant cases to trial.
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Feb 27, 2018 02:11
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yeah but federal prosecutors tend to hold back until they think they have enough to secure a conviction. The anti-corruption people have nabbed, what, a million officials? there's no way you could do that number using that same level of caution/restraint, meaning that getting a 99% rate is unrealistic, and therefore, isn't following what we would recognize as correct standards of justice, rule of law, the right to a trial, etc.
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Feb 27, 2018 02:12
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rudatron posted:yeah but federal prosecutors tend to hold back until they think they have enough to secure a conviction. The anti-corruption people have nabbed, what, a million officials? there's no way you could do that number using that same level of caution/restraint, meaning that getting a 99% rate is unrealistic, and therefore, isn't following what we would recognize as correct standards of justice, rule of law, the right to a trial, etc. 100,000 indictments and 120 high-ranking officials in a country of a billion and a half people and a party of 89 million. your hyperbole is showing
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Feb 27, 2018 02:18
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rudatron posted:yeah but federal prosecutors tend to hold back until they think they have enough to secure a conviction. The anti-corruption people have nabbed, what, a million officials? there's no way you could do that number using that same level of caution/restraint, meaning that getting a 99% rate is unrealistic, and therefore, isn't following what we would recognize as correct standards of justice, rule of law, the right to a trial, etc. I live in a US town of around 4,000 at the moment, and I could easily name ten or twelve local public officials on the obvious take. That's with ~liberal democratic~ standards of good governance and plausible excuses. That's several times the rate implied for China there. I 100% agree with you that Xi's purges are unlikely to be finding the RIGHT 2-3 dudes per my town in every town in China, and are likely to be coincidental purges of rivals of several-layers-removed underlings, but it's definitely not an unplausible rate. e: ESPECIALLY if it's actually .2-.3 dudes in every town. That's literally the implication of ACAB and I shouldn't have to convince anyone here of that.
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Feb 27, 2018 02:18
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jesus god and mary, will all of you just shut the hell up with the whataboutism? this isn't about the US, stop trying to make it that wayKaptainKrunk posted:Xi is making a bet that things won't come off the rails domestically, that the US will continue tripping over its dick, and that any diplomatic squabbles will be ironed over because China will become the near-Hegemon of an East Asia economic bloc that'll surpass the North Atlantic one that has dominated the world economy for 300 years.
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Feb 27, 2018 02:29
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get that OUT of my face posted:jesus god and mary, will all of you just shut the hell up with the whataboutism? this isn't about the US, stop trying to make it that way whataboutism is a charge always made by american apologists who refuse to cop to any consistent morality and don’t see any problem with the hypocrisy of their position. if you refuse to apply a standard of ethics that’s your own drat problem
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Feb 27, 2018 02:43
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Yandat posted:whataboutism is a charge always made by american apologists who refuse to cop to any consistent morality and don’t see any problem with the hypocrisy of their position. if you refuse to apply a standard of ethics that’s your own drat problem Whataboutism, as a charge, is often made against socialists who do the exact thing you describe.
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Feb 27, 2018 02:50
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Whataboutism rules and isn't done enough.
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Feb 27, 2018 03:00
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R. Guyovich posted:the idea of the anti-corruption campaign as a purge only holds water in the west. people here love it Have you fled the decadent west? I would have gone to Cuba, personally.
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Feb 27, 2018 03:05
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