Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

«‹›1518 »

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/vsualst/status/970689943298244608

# ? Mar 6, 2018 18:07

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 25, 2024 23:29

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/trump-trade-threats-will-likely-amplify-poloz-s-caution-on-rates

quote:

Trade Threats Will Likely Amplify Poloz�s Caution on Rates

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz�s preoccupation with uncertainty probably means a longer pause on interest rates, in a world of fraying trade alliances and volatile markets.

The central banker is expected to leave his benchmark borrowing cost unchanged at 1.25 percent at a rate decision Wednesday at 10 a.m, according to all 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, with forward contracts pricing in just a 13 percent chance of a hike.

Investors have been paring back the odds of rate hikes in recent weeks on the back of a run of soft economic data, global market turmoil and growing geopolitical concerns that are expected to heighten Poloz�s already-elevated levels of caution with tightening monetary policy further.

�This one is likely to be a maintenance statement with a more cautious spin that buys time to assess developments,� Derek Holt, an economist with Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a report. �There are some rather compelling reasons to pause the hike cycle.�

These include, according to Holt, uncertainty around trade policy that has worsened with President Donald Trump�s threats to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, weaker growth numbers, and sluggish investment plans by businesses.

Poloz�s next interest rate increase -- which would be the fourth in the rate-hike cycle -- isn�t being fully priced in until July, swaps trading suggests. A month ago, investors were pricing in at least one increase by May, with a good chance of an April hike.

Investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to outpace the Bank of Canada on rate hikes over the next 12 months, with at least three hikes in the U.S. over that time versus two for Canada. The rate divergence has been a drag on the Canadian dollar, which has lost 4 percent since Poloz�s last rate hike on Jan. 17.

Analytical Lens
Growing geopolitical concerns could be particularly meaningful to a central banker like Poloz, who has put uncertainty at the forefront of his economic analysis.

That focus was on display last week when Poloz traveled to London to receive an award from Central Banking, a trade publication. In his acceptance speech, he chose to highlight the Bank of Canada�s efforts to be �open and honest� about uncertainty in its policy making.

Poloz�s narrative boils down to something like this:

There is more uncertainty in the world today.
This heightened uncertainty is the sort you can�t measure or estimate.
Geopolitics is an important factor, but so is growing uncertainty about the reliability of models to prescribe policy.
Because of this, policy makers are injecting more �realism� and judgment into the narrative and nudging the decision-making process toward something that looks less like a mechanical exercise akin to engineering and more like risk management. More art, less science, in Poloz�s words.
This is important since the Bank of Canada�s �mechanical� models are probably telling it to raise interest rates faster than it has, as the country runs up against capacity.

Gradualism is simply the inevitable outcome of a world view that puts a greater emphasis on uncertainty.

�We have been working on the theme of uncertainty since the global financial crisis revealed the limits of our models and our knowledge,� Poloz said in his speech. �And we have learned that it is far better to be open and honest about the uncertainty we face, as well as how we deal with it, rather than to just assume the uncertainty away and project a false sense of confidence.�

Track Record
Not everyone is fully bought into Poloz�s focus on risk management. One critique is that the Bank of Canada�s emphasis on uncertainty generates blurry economic analysis, gives officials too much discretion in setting policy and makes it difficult for market players to pin down intentions and form expectations. In other words, it could end up fueling �policy uncertainty� and result in unnecessary volatility.

Poloz himself has acknowledged the economic literature that deals with uncertainty is undeveloped. But that hasn�t necessarily made the governor any more difficult to read.

For example, a cursory analysis of forward contracts suggests investors did a better job predicting Poloz�s policy changes six months forward than had been the case with former Governor Mark Carney�s three hikes in 2010 and a series of rate increases by former Governor David Dodge between 2005 and 2007.

A gradual approach to policy, as a matter of course, means the scope of misreading him is smaller. Slow and steady is always a good bet when it comes to Poloz.

gently caress you stephen

# ? Mar 6, 2018 18:11

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-twitter-canada

quote:

RBC Chief Sounds Alarm on Flood of Foreign Cash in Canadian Real Estate

Foreign inflows are distorting Canada�s already constrained housing market and aren�t the kind of investment the country needs, the chief executive officer of Royal Bank of Canada said.

�We do not need foreign capital using Canadian real estate as a piggy bank," David McKay, said Tuesday at a bank conference in New York hosted by the Toronto-based lender. �If capital is coming in to sit in a home, unproductively, and is distorting your marketplace and the livelihood of your residents -- no thank you."

McKay, whose bank is Canada�s largest mortgage lender, says he�s supportive of government taxes and other measures targeting foreign buyers, as well as other regulatory efforts to cool the country�s housing market. He�s seeing some impacts from these rule changes, with �a little bit more healthy dynamics."

�Demand is down and house prices have been stable," McKay said. �There�s still intensive bidding, but to a lesser degree."

Toronto, Canada�s biggest housing market, has been correcting over the past few months amid a slew of regulations put in place to steady booming prices and increasing debt. Toronto home sales fell 35 percent in February from a year earlier, marking the weakest month of sales in nine years, though benchmark prices were up 3.2 percent on the year, according to data released Tuesday by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Added Gasoline
Canada�s housing market has been on edge this year as mortgage guidelines came into effect, making it harder for prospective buyers to qualify for loans.

A surge of foreign money into Canadian housing had been adding �gasoline� to markets in Vancouver and Toronto, McKay said. He identified a "cocktail of factors" that led to unconstrained growth of Toronto and Vancouver home prices, including a growing population, land constraints, lack of supply and highly stimulative interest rates that caused people to funnel more disposable income into their homes in addition foreign money.

you don't say rear end in a top hat

# ? Mar 6, 2018 18:31

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/SBarlow_ROB/status/970683768725000192

# ? Mar 6, 2018 18:35

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

EvilJoven posted:

Sounds like someone's moving to Winnipeg.

Well, I used to live in Prince George. I can live anywhere.

# ? Mar 6, 2018 20:26

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/971130511174246400

# ? Mar 6, 2018 22:56

Wasting: Apr 25, 2013; The next to go

Wow, these idiots really perma'd CI? That kind of moderation is why this is a poo poo dying website.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 03:22

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

namaste friends posted:

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-realtors-petition-against-homeless-housing-says-advocate-1.23190515

My favourite part here is that the homeless housing will displace dogs from the temporary dog park. This is obviously wrong and insulting. It is rude to suggest Chinese play with their food.

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

loving as if the canadian housing bubble outlasted CI, RIP buddy

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/03/05/canada-needs-a-law-that-prevents-pets-from-becoming-the-family-dinner.html

# ? Mar 7, 2018 03:30

Arivia: Mar 17, 2011

*pours out an underwater mortgage*

# ? Mar 7, 2018 03:42

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

meh

# ? Mar 7, 2018 03:52

Ccs: Feb 25, 2011

This is why all the interesting discussions about China take place in GBS. The mod in D&D has some issues.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 04:00

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

RIP cultural imperial, too good for this place.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 04:03

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

drat I logged on to post about the fact that another one of the "supply will fix everything" Abundant Housing Vancouver guys is running for the NPA, bringing up the total to two, and no one is going to care about this except CI and now he's permabanned.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 04:11

large hands: Jan 24, 2006

lol at the retarded mods and admins for permabanning the Chinese guy for making a Chinese joke.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 04:29

pinarello dogman: Jun 17, 2013

Ccs posted:

This is why all the interesting discussions about China take place in GBS. The mod in D&D has some issues.

This thread would probably work better there. GBS is pretty good these days.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 04:33

pokeyman: Nov 26, 2006; That elephant ate my entire platoon.

Be the GBS thread you want to see?

Also get hosed CI! I�m posting in your thread about the bubble that won�t burst. Eat it.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 05:02

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

I'm convinced that R.G. just sat here jerkin' it and refreshing this thread constantly when CI was live, waiting for the slimmest excuse to probate him. A permaban seems wild, though, where are they gonna get their rocks off now? Beware, it could be you next! :ghost:

But hey, not as if this sites traffic stats aren't clawing on deaths door anyways. What's one more kick to the revenues at this rate?

# ? Mar 7, 2018 05:26

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

This thread gets more traffic with CI than without. The conversations were more interesting and there was plenty of new material to examine. A permaban is a complete overreaction, considering the recent news about the pig getting adopted from the SPCA and then eaten by its owners. That might have warranted a probation, but not a permaban.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 05:55

tagesschau: Sep 1, 2006; D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR

Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

A decision in search of a reason.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 05:56

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

go to QCS and petition about it then

# ? Mar 7, 2018 06:03

Furnaceface: Oct 21, 2004

JawKnee posted:

go to QCS and petition about it then

Didnt he threaten to lock all the CanPol threads if anyone did that again?

Also this bubble isnt popping any time soon. Houses in Barrie are still going up in price.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 06:05

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Furnaceface posted:

Didnt he threaten to lock all the CanPol threads if anyone did that again?

I don't know but I think it would be funny

# ? Mar 7, 2018 06:06

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

JawKnee posted:

go to QCS and petition about it then

I actually did last time this happened when R. Guyovich killed the D&D pics thread around the same time. Seems other mods agree with the editorial direction for D&D, so... :shrug:

# ? Mar 7, 2018 08:46

Eox: Jun 20, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

Bring back CI, but shackle him to CSPAM until he's made 4444 good posts

# ? Mar 7, 2018 09:01

Poke Chop: Apr 27, 2008

Free CI and also bring back the pics thread
drunk posting but gently caress R.Guy and gently caress these dead gay forums

# ? Mar 7, 2018 10:59

R. Guyovich: Dec 25, 1991

large hands posted:

lol at the retarded mods and admins for permabanning the Chinese guy for making a Chinese joke.

any of the three or four posts he got reported for would have been the last straw so you can pretend it was for one of those if it makes you feel better

# ? Mar 7, 2018 11:23

Wasting: Apr 25, 2013; The next to go

R. Guyovich posted:

any of the three or four posts he got reported for would have been the last straw so you can pretend it was for one of those if it makes you feel better

The only straw here is in your pants, as indicated by your tantrums over CI and abuse of what little power you have to make yourself feel better. Great work perma banning one of the few people dumb enough to still provide content to these gay forums

# ? Mar 7, 2018 12:24

large hands: Jan 24, 2006

in a super nerdy, lisping voice:

"any of the three or four posts he got reported for would have been the last straw so you can pretend it was for one of those if it makes you feel better"

# ? Mar 7, 2018 14:51

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

R. Guyovich posted:

any of the three or four posts he got reported for would have been the last straw so you can pretend it was for one of those if it makes you feel better

Hey Our Guy of Itch, I don't particularly care that you perma'd CI, but I am kind of surprised that you would cut off a revenue stream to Lowtax like that. What did CI spend, $40-50 to re-reg last year? I bet if you kept banning him he'd just keep paying for more.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 15:25

Coxswain Balls: Jun 4, 2001

Eox posted:

Bring back CI, but shackle him to CSPAM until he's made 4444 good posts

Yes please.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 15:41

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

And Lowtax wonders why his traffic keeps dropping off a cliff. What a mystery!

# ? Mar 7, 2018 15:53

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Ethnic Han conversations at work are rather crude and forward with their opinions. CI did nothing wrong

# ? Mar 7, 2018 15:54

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Judging by the permas for Tiny Brontosaurus and CI, you can't be anti-racist, nor can you make any sort of racist joke at all even if you're making fun of your own ethnic group. You must be earnestly racist, but just a little bit and/or unintentionally racist, to have a place on this website.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 15:57

mila kunis: Jun 10, 2011

Oh no now where do I go to get a bloomberg.com rss feed but with racism

# ? Mar 7, 2018 15:58

heehee: Sep 5, 2012; haha wow i cant believe how lucky we got to win

Time to unbookmark the thread

# ? Mar 7, 2018 16:03

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

FREE CI

https://twitter.com/bankofcanada/status/971400917433143297

# ? Mar 7, 2018 16:07

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

heeheex2 posted:

Time to unbookmark the thread

Thanks for the update.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 16:38

Lobok: Jul 13, 2006; Say Watt?

cowofwar posted:

In terms of utility I would put a condo building way ahead of a church which is less useful as a parking lot. At least a parking lot is used more than one day a week. A condo building provides homes albeit lovely ones.

If the church building wasn't actually owned or run by a church organization its value would be way higher. There are a couple converted churches downtown Toronto.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 18:56

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

I did a tiny bit of work for a united church that wanted to partner with a developer to tear down the church, build condos and retail, and then use the profit generated from that to lease a little hall in the new building for what's left of their congregation. The church looks nice and is quite well known as a landmark in the neighbourhood and the eventual plans the architect who wasn't me came up with were bland and generic as gently caress. It's on an elevated prominent corner in the main "square" of the neighbourhood and is dominated by a big brick church tower. I'm usually really against slapping a brick facad on new buildings to "respect heritage" but in this case some brick would look good. The new design does absolutely nothing to celebrate the fact that it's on a corner, it's like the designer never visited the site and just downloaded generic langford/suburban vancouver 4 story condo #983 and slapped it onto the site.

But other than the terrible boring design, it's the church's only option. Dwindling congregation, church is way too big for their needs now, and the building itself is in horrible horrible shape. Even if they were keeping it as a church it would be twice as expensive to fix up than build new.

Ah here's pictures

The new design sort of has a bit of a square bit on the corner, but the whole thing needs a bit more height to at least match the previous massing. But I assume it's more the local NIMBY's demanding the new building be shorter.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Mar 7, 2018

# ? Mar 7, 2018 19:11

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 25, 2024 23:29

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

Baronjutter posted:

I did a tiny bit of work for a united church that wanted to partner with a developer to tear down the church, build condos and retail, and then use the profit generated from that to lease a little hall in the new building for what's left of their congregation. The church looks nice and is quite well known as a landmark in the neighbourhood and the eventual plans the architect who wasn't me came up with were bland and generic as gently caress. It's on an elevated prominent corner in the main "square" of the neighbourhood and is dominated by a big brick church tower. I'm usually really against slapping a brick facad on new buildings to "respect heritage" but in this case some brick would look good. The new design does absolutely nothing to celebrate the fact that it's on a corner, it's like the designer never visited the site and just downloaded generic langford/suburban vancouver 4 story condo #983 and slapped it onto the site.

But other than the terrible boring design, it's the church's only option. Dwindling congregation, church is way too big for their needs now, and the building itself is in horrible horrible shape. Even if they were keeping it as a church it would be twice as expensive to fix up than build new.

Ah here's pictures

The new design sort of has a bit of a square bit on the corner, but the whole thing needs a bit more height to at least match the previous massing. But I assume it's more the local NIMBY's demanding the new building be shorter.

Wow, ugly.

# ? Mar 7, 2018 19:59

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

«‹›1518 »