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hoiyes
May 17, 2007
Watching O Mecanismo on Netflix, it seems to be taking some liberties to walk the "both parties are equally bad" line, which I guess is a step up from "It was all PT".

Really disappointed that they didn't paint "Lúcio Lemes" (Aécio Neves) as a coke fiend, but they did paint him as out and out corrupt. thought their depection of Moro (him reading a Batman comic lol) was good, and of Odebrecht as some maniac control freak also.

One thing they really nailed was the attitude of the wife of the Petrobras guy. Knowing that they were stealing millions, but still actually feeling like they were being persecuted and treated unjustly. Nailed the ruling class right to the wall there.

Overall, seems like a good thing to enter into the Brazilian zeitgeist before the election, assuming Bolsonaro isn't able to use it to fuel a 'drain the swamp' line.

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Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo
Leftist people were really soured on that series (well, not PSOL people because they're on a gently caress PT kick and heck, it's understandable) because it took Romero Juc's "we'll make a national-level deal with everyone so everyone gets away scot-free" and put it on erzart-Lula's mouth.

hoiyes
May 17, 2007

Dias posted:

Leftist people were really soured on that series (well, not PSOL people because they're on a gently caress PT kick and heck, it's understandable) because it took Romero Juc's "we'll make a national-level deal with everyone so everyone gets away scot-free" and put it on erzart-Lula's mouth.

Yeah, when we saw that they'd changed the "stop the bleeding" conversation we were preparing for the worst, but fortunately that was the only distortion that really stuck put. It was the weirdest change too, especially since the actual conversation is basically a meme at this point that is constantly being shared on Facebook etc. so it's not like they were going to be able to sneak it under the radar.

Conspiracy edit: perhaps the powers that be thought the series was too biased to the left (as the truth often is) so they deliberately chose to misrepresent a conversation that is easily disproven/common knowledge?

Symbolic Butt
Mar 22, 2009

(_!_)
Buglord
I didn't watch O Mecanismo but knowing "centrist" José Padilha I can't help but think that's his way of slyly supporting Bolsonaro.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Symbolic Butt posted:

I didn't watch O Mecanismo but knowing "centrist" José Padilha I can't help but think that's his way of slyly supporting Bolsonaro.

That would be odd, since his Tropa de Elite 2 was basically about opportunistic kill-them-all fascists taking advantage of anti-crime and anti-corruption outrage to take over.

But with so many people that I assume were smart having turned into rancid assholes, I'm not putting my hand in the fire for anyone, as we say here.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
I am always amazed at how brazen the media is in their differential treatment of pro Lula and Anti Lula protests. Pro Lula it's "there were pro-Lula protests called" after the fact. Against lula it's "SOCIAL MOVEMENTS CALL FOR PROTESTS AGAINST LULA TOMORROW, HERE'S WHERE PROTESTERS ARE MEETING IN EACH CITY!!!!"

Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo
Padilha reminds me of people in advertising I've met, they're not outright asses but they play the "neutral" card as hard as they can while being super privileged white dudes. Basically they get to talk poo poo about the left while still saving enough face to hit on girls with gay friends.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

joepinetree posted:

I am always amazed at how brazen the media is in their differential treatment of pro Lula and Anti Lula protests. Pro Lula it's "there were pro-Lula protests called" after the fact. Against lula it's "SOCIAL MOVEMENTS CALL FOR PROTESTS AGAINST LULA TOMORROW, HERE'S WHERE PROTESTERS ARE MEETING IN EACH CITY!!!!"

What about the insane fascists attacking the pro-lula protests

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

Plutonis posted:

What about the insane fascists attacking the pro-lula protests

There is also the army commander saying that the army is "paying attention to it's institutional mission" in the case of impunity.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012
General commander of Brazilian armed forces makes overt statement that he despises 'impunity' and that the army is ready to 'fulfill its role' if things don't....go a certain way.

It's actually funny how much the powers that be are leaning on this so much, as there was never the tiniest chance of the Supreme Court not singing off on Lula's arrest; they didn't go through all this poo poo to let it slip away in the next election.

Romero Jucá is the prophet of our times. Other than claiming that Aécio would be taken down, literally everything from his leaked phone call went off without a hitch. I guess even he didn't dare be perfectly optimistic and gave himself a 5% margin of error just in case.

Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo
And to be fair Neves is gonna come out of it politically hosed, he's just gonna dodge charges at least for a while.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Dias posted:

And to be fair Neves is gonna come out of it politically hosed, he's just gonna dodge charges at least for a while.

Give it a couple of years, tops, and he'll be back in the game like nothing happened. No one ever lost money betting on the bovine inanity of the brazilian voter.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
I am 90% certain that he is going to run for congress and win. As will Perrella.

Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo
I mean, sure, it's more he's gonna go from presidential candidate to luckily a House position in the next few years.

hoiyes
May 17, 2007
Man, who do you have to kill to get out of Brazilian politics!?

(the person you're aiming at :synpa:)

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

That's all, folks

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


no loving way man, there is a lot to go yet

we still have a world cup to begin with

Lucy_Cominato
Oct 23, 2010

joepinetree posted:

I am 90% certain that he is going to run for congress and win. As will Perrella.

Its not that hard to get 100k votes when you have a ton of money for the campaign.And if he gets really desperate he can run in the small states where he needs only 40k votes

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
I bet he'd be top 3 in votes in Minas.

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


so I am thinking here about how the man decides to handle this, and the main two are:

- he stays in São Bernardo, bunkers in and holy poo poo we skip the frying pan and go straight to the fire once the feds come in;

- he turns himself in, and each day until the elections will have increasingly insane amounts of pressure.

but now I am thinking there is a non-zero chance he pulls off the Vargas Option and offs himself, which the outcome might be the greatest seismic shift in Brazilian politics, and if there is a superior providence, may it help us all if that happens

Symbolic Butt
Mar 22, 2009

(_!_)
Buglord
I was actually surprised the votes were so close.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
I am 90% sure that the order of things and the closeness of the vote is so that they can have some leeway if one of their favorite crooks ends up in a similar situation. It makes no sense to judge the habeas corpus issue like this when you are about to also decide on the broader issue of freedom pending appeal.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

joepinetree posted:

I am 90% sure that the order of things and the closeness of the vote is so that they can have some leeway if one of their favorite crooks ends up in a similar situation. It makes no sense to judge the habeas corpus issue like this when you are about to also decide on the broader issue of freedom pending appeal.

This. Having the court president always cast the deciding vote whichever way is convenient gives them a looot of leeway.

Also wrecks the legitimacy of the court and system, but since when has that ever been a concern?

Edit:

Apparently Lula's decided not to turn himself in at Curitiba, and instead make the police wade through his sea of supporters to grab him in Sao Paulo.

This is a political powderkeg.

Then again, in his place, being old, having seen his wife hounded unto death and lots of former allies he helped achieve power with the daggers out for him, I doubt I'd be in a docile mood either. Lending credence that the system is in any way fair or civilized would not be a priority, to say the least.

It's been funny to see rabid anti-PT Reinaldo Azevedo being one of the few conservatives stridently pointing out how insane this is. Not out of any sense of decency, mind. He just remembers well what happened to fellow firebrand Lacerda in the 1960s; used as a cudgel to beat down commies everywhere while there was a civilian government, then quietly ignored (and possibly murdered) by the dictatorship after the coup when he was bno longer useful.

Sephyr fucked around with this message at 13:22 on Apr 6, 2018

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Carlos Lacerda is a fantastic example, because for all his fire and thunder, he was a UDN (national democratic union, former "broad center" party) liberal at his core and got horrified once the hardline wing started to complain very loudly about Kubischek (possibly the best liberal president Brazil ever had), but they couldn't do a thing because he was popular af.

However, it is said that Lacerda recognized how much damage he did to the political discourse during those days, which is why he pushed hard for the "Kubischek plan B" to the UDN members in the military: get rid of the then president João Goulart and push hard for elections for Kubischek to return

of course, both of them ended up dead pretty quick

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Also I was reading some comments about Moro's decision and what the gently caress, people think that he is being brilliant and that Lula will have to be "responsible"

what the loving gently caress

people do not get it that his supporters are going to wall the police off voluntarily, not because he wants them to

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

dead comedy forums posted:

Carlos Lacerda is a fantastic example, because for all his fire and thunder, he was a UDN (national democratic union, former "broad center" party) liberal at his core and got horrified once the hardline wing started to complain very loudly about Kubischek (possibly the best liberal president Brazil ever had), but they couldn't do a thing because he was popular af.

However, it is said that Lacerda recognized how much damage he did to the political discourse during those days, which is why he pushed hard for the "Kubischek plan B" to the UDN members in the military: get rid of the then president João Goulart and push hard for elections for Kubischek to return

of course, both of them ended up dead pretty quick

Yup. Lacerda. Goulart and Juscelino were openly talking about forming a wide-reaching alliance to restore normalcy to public life.

And within twelve months they were all dead.

bagual
Oct 29, 2010

inconspicuous
The arrest warrant was expedited before the STF decision could make it into the official diary lmao

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

bagual posted:

The arrest warrant was expedited before the STF decision could make it into the official diary lmao

It's amazing how in any civilized country on earth Moro would have had to recuse himself from the case. Releasing illegal wiretaps to the press, openly displaying his partisanship, moving on the Lula case faster than anyone else under his jurisdiction (from trial to arrest warrant it took Lula less than half the time that it took for the fastest case he tried).

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


dude Moro had that arrest warrant made like years ago and all it needed was to press enter

lmao that guy

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

Is anyone following the protests in Nicaragua right now? The government announced decreases in their social security payouts at the same time as increases in their social security contribution tax. There have been protests and counterprotests and right now about 10 are dead. I've read articles suggesting the protests are really a conspiracy by right wing agitators trying to depose Ortega, who is at least nominally a socialist. I've also read articles calling Ortega a dictator who won his third term through fraud.

I must admit I'm confused what to think. It seems like there's probably money elsewhere in the budget to shore up social security without squeezing the poor (those stupid trees in Managua). At the same time, I wonder what the protesters expect to get afterwards if they do manage to get rid or Ortega. A more socialist socialist? I'd expect that someone more neo-liberal or even conservative would take power, which would jeopardize pension payouts even more.

I don't really know that much about Nicaragua, just what I hear about. I live in Costa Rica, and my wife is half Nicaraguan with plenty of family living there, so it comes up on FB timelines and stuff. I'd be interested to hear anyone else's take on this.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

Half of unasur's members left the organization. Lol the closest we could get to regional integrity got killed by neoliberalism again.

dpkg chopra
Jun 9, 2007

Fast Food Fight

Grimey Drawer
I want a unified South American bloc as much as the next guy but let's not pretend that anybody other than people that worked there ever gave a poo poo about Mercosur or Unasur.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Hellblazer187 posted:

Is anyone following the protests in Nicaragua right now? The government announced decreases in their social security payouts at the same time as increases in their social security contribution tax. There have been protests and counterprotests and right now about 10 are dead. I've read articles suggesting the protests are really a conspiracy by right wing agitators trying to depose Ortega, who is at least nominally a socialist. I've also read articles calling Ortega a dictator who won his third term through fraud.

I must admit I'm confused what to think. It seems like there's probably money elsewhere in the budget to shore up social security without squeezing the poor (those stupid trees in Managua). At the same time, I wonder what the protesters expect to get afterwards if they do manage to get rid or Ortega. A more socialist socialist? I'd expect that someone more neo-liberal or even conservative would take power, which would jeopardize pension payouts even more.

I don't really know that much about Nicaragua, just what I hear about. I live in Costa Rica, and my wife is half Nicaraguan with plenty of family living there, so it comes up on FB timelines and stuff. I'd be interested to hear anyone else's take on this.

I was surprised to hear about this as well though it’s not really that far out of character for Ortega. He’s long had a friendly relationship with the Nicaraguan business community. Hard to tell where this is going really, he’s got kind of a weird political coalition.

I’m really curious about the general background circumstances and pushed him to make such an unpopular move.

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

He walked back the pension changes yesterday, but it seems like there are still protests.

And yeah, Ortega is a little weird that way. He's nominally a socialist but like, Walmart is coming into Nicaragua and he wanted to build that drat canal, so those are very much rightist or at least neo-lib tendencies. At the same time, he does help house and feed the poor. My impression or Ortega had been "basically a dictator, but you can do a lot worse."

Really interested to see how this develops. I'd had a trip to Nicaragua planned for June/July but if the violence escalates I'll probably end up cancelling that.

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Plutonis posted:

Half of unasur's members left the organization. Lol the closest we could get to regional integrity got killed by neoliberalism again.

Killed mostly because of our incompetent corrupt leaders.
A true South American union is impossible, unfortunately. Too many petty rivalries between countries and cultural differences are greater than most people think.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

Negrostrike posted:

Killed mostly because of our incompetent corrupt leaders.
A true South American union is impossible, unfortunately. Too many petty rivalries between countries and cultural differences are greater than most people think.

*Makes the Bolivar in General in His Labyrinth face*

dpkg chopra
Jun 9, 2007

Fast Food Fight

Grimey Drawer

Negrostrike posted:

Killed mostly because of our incompetent corrupt leaders.
A true South American union is impossible, unfortunately. Too many petty rivalries between countries and cultural differences are greater than most people think.

I don't think that's true. At the height of their popularity, Chavez, Kirchner (either) and/or Lula could've made some significant progress in that direction. They just never gave a poo poo.

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Ur Getting Fatter posted:

I don't think that's true. At the height of their popularity, Chavez, Kirchner (either) and/or Lula could've made some significant progress in that direction. They just never gave a poo poo.

All I wanna I say is that they don't care about u(na)s(ur).

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!
it would have helped if they didn't let argentina use it as an instrument against the falklands, and the countries that were faced with participating in the falkland circus or keeping trade ties with the uk/eu decided it wasn't worth the hassle.

But they did nothing to stop argentina from instrumentalizing it either

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Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

Celexi posted:

it would have helped if they didn't let argentina use it as an instrument against the falklands, and the countries that were faced with participating in the falkland circus or keeping trade ties with the uk/eu decided it wasn't worth the hassle.

But they did nothing to stop argentina from instrumentalizing it either
I think of all the things that the UNASUR did/did not do, this is the most irrelevant one.

All diplomats understand that such statements are for internal consumption in deploying political white noise in Argentina, and nothing more.

I think the UNASUR is a terrible organisation, that once had a lot of potential, but come on this is not what broke it

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