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LRADIKAL posted:I got my notification that I could order my car, but the 15K extra cash for the range and premium is more than I can afford. Told them to let me know when a cheap one is ready. I got my notification Saturday and pulled the trigger this morning. Tesla says 3 - 6 weeks delivery time but who knows. 310 mile range battery upgrade, premium interior and pearl white paint upgrade. All those options are still required but the paint. So, no autopilot for me, I just don't care much about it. I think Google's LIDAR system is so vastly superior (and vastly more expensive, doubt consumer will be owning LIDAR cars anytime soon) I have real doubts Tesla can do much more then fancy lane assist / adaptive cruse control. I seem to be the only Model 3 owner in the world with this point of view, but I don't even use any cruse control ever so I just don't need it. Maybe if I was in 2 hours of LA traffic every day I would feel different. It does not really matter as you can retrofit auto pilot any time, for a extra $1k. The Tesla math is that if I order now will for sure get the federal tax rebate -$7.5k state tax rebate -$5k state tax rebate and no state tax on the sale price of the vehicle (I did not know about that last one, should save me an additional $2-3k) So, $37,500.00 is a pretty attractive price for this car, even cheaper with a trade in. I have a 2009 Infinity G35 that should get me $5-7K trade-in. So, $30-32k? This is almost reasonable  If I wait for AWD, as I originally thought, I may miss out on the federal rebate or have a reduced rebate. My state rebate could go at any time, but probably will not anytime soon. We decided as a family we will trade in our Mazda5 minivan for some AWD wagon / Toyota 4runner later this year, and get the RWD Tesla. We need something that has 4x4 or AWD for winter in the mountains in Colorado. But around Denver the snow is only really bad 5-6 days a year. I grew up driving RWD in the snow and I think with snow tires the Model 3 will be just fine 99% of the time. Hell, all seasons would probably be ok. I worry that AWD will not be a $4k-$5k option everyone is speculating, at least not at first. Tesla's track record makes me think they will package AWD with air suspension and a performance / speed upgrade at first and it will be more of a $15k -$20k option. IDK if any of that will happen but it sure could. I also learned last week that I will move my work office in 8 months and my daily commute will go from 4 miles round trip to 50  so it was not to hard of a decision. I found out I get free charging at work! I saw my first Model 3 in person last weekend in Las Vegas, it looked really nice up close. My wife has been sort of ho hum on this whole thing, but when she saw it she was like "So, when do we get ours???" I guess now we get it in 3 - 6 weeks! Still need to figure out: My house needs a "electrical service upgrade" I have 125amps total mains to my house, I will need 150 or 200amps mains if I add a 60 amp circuit for a Tesla charger in my garage. This will require a new breaker box and working with the local utility. I have word of mouth quotes that this will run $1500-$3000 total, without running the charging circuit to my garage, so another $1000 for that.... and a bit of a hassle getting permits / utility sign off. I may be able to get away with just adding a 40amp 220 circuit and not upgrading the mains. Just living with slow overnight charging at my house, this could be much more economical, IDK have to actually meet with electricians to sort it out. I really was planning on waiting another 6 months or so and having time to work all this out, but poo poo, I'm now super excited to get a new car, let alone a new awesome electric car. Sorry for the long rambling post, I'm gitty.
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Apr 17, 2018 03:34
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spandexcajun posted:I really was planning on waiting another 6 months or so and having time to work all this out, but poo poo, I'm now super excited to get a new car, let alone a new awesome electric car. Sorry for the long rambling post, I'm gitty. It's good to be excited
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Apr 17, 2018 06:33
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What are the latest estimates on the tax credit disappearing, because I have my invite but I'm waiting to hear back how much I owe on taxes this year. It'll determine how much money I have to put down, what payment to shoot for, etc. But I don't want to lose that credit! I also haven't decided on a color. Is it like weeks or months?
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Apr 17, 2018 06:48
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OldPueblo posted:What are the latest estimates on the tax credit disappearing, because I have my invite but I'm waiting to hear back how much I owe on taxes this year. It'll determine how much money I have to put down, what payment to shoot for, etc. But I don't want to lose that credit! I also haven't decided on a color. I think there's a draw-down period as well (it was discussed earlier in the thread). Ola posted:I'm the opposite. I'm worn out by TV pacing, which assumes the viewer hates facts and gets bored if there isn't a joke or some shouting every ten seconds.  And  it takes 20 minutes before you get a look at the interior.I appreciate the deep dive into the chassis construction and motor placement, but not before I've decided if I want to sit in the damned thing.
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Apr 17, 2018 07:38
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spandexcajun posted:I have real doubts Tesla can do much more then fancy lane assist / adaptive cruse control. I seem to be the only Model 3 owner in the world with this point of view... You’re not. I drive through some of the worst parts of Miami traffic, so I sprang for EAP, but I’m not buying Tesla’s line about full autonomy literally nor figuratively.  spandexcajun posted:My house needs a "electrical service upgrade" I have 125amps total mains to my house, I will need 150 or 200amps mains if I add a 60 amp circuit for a Tesla charger in my garage. This will require a new breaker box and working with the local utility. I have word of mouth quotes that this will run $1500-$3000 total, without running the charging circuit to my garage, so another $1000 for that.... and a bit of a hassle getting permits / utility sign off. I may be able to get away with just adding a 40amp 220 circuit and not upgrading the mains. Just living with slow overnight charging at my house, this could be much more economical, IDK have to actually meet with electricians to sort it out. Those prices seem very approximately right. Note that there is also a 30% federal (and possibly state/municipal) tax rebate (up to $1000) on charger installation. Not going to completely solve the issue, but every bit helps.
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Apr 17, 2018 08:16
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Model 3 owners, keep postin'! Good to hear impressions and about stuff like the necessary house upgrades.
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Apr 17, 2018 09:02
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MrYenko posted:Note that there is also a 30% federal (and possibly state/municipal) tax rebate (up to $1000) on charger installation. Was, it ended in 2015, then was retroactively extended to 2016 in the last tax bill and it was supposed to extended to 2017 at least but congress got distracted and everyone has to go back to sucking fossil fuel cock because our president is a moron so it’s doubtful at this point anything will happen.
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Apr 17, 2018 14:12
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/tesla-temporarily-pauses-production-of-the-model-3-sedan-again "Tesla Inc. is temporarily suspending production of the Model 3 sedan for at least the second time in roughly two months, just after Elon Musk admitted to mistakes that hindered his most important car." "The hiatus is another setback for the first model Musk has tried to mass-manufacture. In addition to trying to bring electric vehicles to the mainstream, the chief executive officer had sought to build a competitive advantage over established automakers by installing more robots to quickly produce vehicles. Last week, he acknowledged “excessive” automation at Tesla was a mistake." I think he bought that German automation company and went a little too wild.
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Apr 17, 2018 15:14
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spandexcajun posted:Still need to figure out: Honeslty, I would just live with the 40 amp (I assume you mean 50A circuit with 40A continuous draw) - I went through the same math when we got our first Model S. It was going to be a huge pain to run new cables ( currently 100A underground, direct burial service, would have to bore our the foundation wall for better service), and so we skipped it and just went with a 50A breaker. It charges in the middle of the night, and just about nothing beyond our double ovens being on would push the whole house load to approach the 100A breaker on my meter. In 4.5 years, I can count on one hand the number of times I wish I had faster charging at home - worst case if I really need it I drive 15 minutes and hit a supercharger to fill up. Now that we are two Teslas though....re-thinking that upgraded service.
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Apr 17, 2018 15:23
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I'm not sure I would have bought a Tesla, ever, if not for autopilot. I wasn't a fan of the look or size of the model S originally. My husband worked next to the dealership and they convinced him to do a 24hr loaner and try AP on his daily commute. He thought it was neat but didn't go for it. A year later he changed jobs and ended up with twice the commute length. Did another 24hr loaner, tested it, and it did 90% of the commute reliably so we ordered our first car then. It makes such a huge difference on long road stretches. I just set my speed to max at 72 (got pulled over going 75 this week... so gently caress it) then get in the middle lane and live there. I carpool in mine and it makes me feel so much more comfortable to be able to have a real conversation with out worrying about lane keeping or if the guy in front of me is varying his speed +-5mph. My eyes are always on the road but I don't feel like I have to be constantly doing all these minute adjustments. I feel so much less tense when I got home. Seattle area traffic is hell. If it weren't for AP i'd have probably just gotten another leaf or waited it out for one of the the other all electrics that are supposed to be coming in the next few years.
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Apr 17, 2018 15:31
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spandexcajun posted:
Have you considered disconnecting the electric service to the garage from the house and adding a second meter? This for me was much cheaper and better and got me a full 200 amps of power to my garage for other things like melting metal together and compressing the poo poo out of air. And charging a car. It was also hilarious when they had to swap the smart meter out for a dumb one because it kept reporting a power outage when the car stopped charging.
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Apr 17, 2018 15:52
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Bad Tesla news continues to pile up. I think I'd bet against their survival at this point.
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Apr 17, 2018 16:09
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ROJO posted:Honeslty, I would just live with the 40 amp (I assume you mean 50A circuit with 40A continuous draw) - I went through the same math when we got our first Model S. It was going to be a huge pain to run new cables ( currently 100A underground, direct burial service, would have to bore our the foundation wall for better service), and so we skipped it and just went with a 50A breaker. It charges in the middle of the night, and just about nothing beyond our double ovens being on would push the whole house load to approach the 100A breaker on my meter. In 4.5 years, I can count on one hand the number of times I wish I had faster charging at home - worst case if I really need it I drive 15 minutes and hit a supercharger to fill up. Ditto, 40A has always been enough for me (for overnight charging).
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Apr 17, 2018 16:39
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So, uh, went out this morning to my car and someone made off with my charging cable. Any recommendations for level 1 outlet chargers on Amazon so I won't be too long without a personal cable? There's a public station across the street so I'm not 100% dead. I plan on getting the '19 Leaf this fall which should come with another OEM cable so I'm fine with something not great but usable.
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Apr 17, 2018 19:29
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FistEnergy posted:Bad Tesla news continues to pile up. I think I'd bet against their survival at this point.
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Apr 17, 2018 19:48
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duz posted:So, uh, went out this morning to my car and someone made off with my charging cable. Most J1772 handles have a small hole under the latch button that is there for putting a padlock so someone can't steal your cable, well.. at least easily.
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Apr 17, 2018 19:49
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duz posted:Any recommendations for level 1 outlet chargers on Amazon so I won't be too long without a personal cable? There's a public station across the street so I'm not 100% dead. I plan on getting the '19 Leaf this fall which should come with another OEM cable so I'm fine with something not great but usable. People seem to like the cheap Duosida branded ones. That same one is sold under multiple different "brands" on Amazon. Just lookup "level 1 evse" on Amazon. Half the results are all the same exact unit. You can also find some cheap level 1 EVSEs on eBay if you dig. I seen a few of the OEM units that are included with the Gen 2 Volt and Bolt on there for $200. Bonus that those are also 240v capable with an adapter.
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Apr 17, 2018 20:00
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ilkhan posted:Tesla Halls production for 3 days to upgrade the line. Sky falls. It's a cumulative effect. If they need to maintain 5k a week to show a profit, then they're just falling further and further behind. 2000 or 2500 a week only slows the deficit growth, and a 5-6 day outage puts them another 10k cars in the hole. Interest rates are rising and Tesla debt is only trading at 90% of stated value. The peril is real. Musk keeps saying they will be A-OK by the end of the year and don't need to beg for more money but the numbers don't support it whatsoever.
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Apr 17, 2018 20:01
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FistEnergy posted:It's a cumulative effect. If they need to maintain 5k a week to show a profit, then they're just falling further and further behind. 2000 or 2500 a week only slows the deficit growth, and a 5-6 day outage puts them another 10k cars in the hole. Interest rates are rising and Tesla debt is only trading at 90% of stated value. The peril is real. Musk keeps saying they will be A-OK by the end of the year and don't need to beg for more money but the numbers don't support it whatsoever.
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Apr 17, 2018 20:09
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ilkhan posted:They don't need 5k to make a profit *right now*. They need to reach 5k per week period. Stopping the line to upgrade parts of it to remove bottlenecks is a net positive. Agreed, in a vacuum it's a net positive. But the problem is they're running out of time. Their cars are beautiful and their supercharger network is great, but the financials and fabrication process are really screwed up and Musk and his superfans are myopic as hell
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Apr 17, 2018 20:24
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FistEnergy posted:Agreed, in a vacuum it's a net positive. But the problem is they're running out of time. Their cars are beautiful and their supercharger network is great, but the financials and fabrication process are really screwed up and Musk and his superfans are myopic as hell Plus, there's a bunch of competitors in the luxury electric class coming to market soon, so he may solve his production problems just in time to see demand dry up.
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Apr 17, 2018 20:25
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Deteriorata posted:Plus, there's a bunch of competitors in the luxury electric class coming to market soon, so he may solve his production problems just in time to see demand dry up. I really like the Model 3 with the exception of the touchscreen-only interface, but I'd only be interested in the 35k version for a commuter vehicle and that's still years away, even if the financial picture magically improves. I saw an i3 in the wild for the first time last weekend, and it looked surprisingly good in dark gray. The 2019 Leaf looks very promising as well. Then there's the Ioniq, the I-PACE, potential Bolt refresh, maybe Ford gets their heads out of their asses, etc etc. I think waiting at least until 2020 to make a choice is the right move for me.
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Apr 17, 2018 20:36
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stevewm posted:People seem to like the cheap Duosida branded ones. That same one is sold under multiple different "brands" on Amazon. Just lookup "level 1 evse" on Amazon. Half the results are all the same exact unit. Yeah, I saw those, didn't know if those were actually popular or just chinese vendors flooding amazon. I'll just buy whichever then. stevewm posted:Most J1772 handles have a small hole under the latch button that is there for putting a padlock so someone can't steal your cable, well.. at least easily. I'll have to grab my gym padlock and start doing that. Shame too, it's a private garage, there's not supposed to be non residents in it so I never locked it while I was home and I put it in the trunk when I wasn't.
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Apr 17, 2018 20:44
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That analyst which was quoted a number of pages back was right and Elon admitted he had over-automated a bit. A bit of Silicon Valley hubris gone and a small step closer to a normal car company. Good, I think.
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Apr 17, 2018 21:14
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Deteriorata posted:Plus, there's a bunch of competitors in the luxury electric class coming to market soon, so he may solve his production problems just in time to see demand dry up.
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Apr 17, 2018 21:36
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El Grillo posted:One facet of this that I don't get at the moment is, where are the batteries coming from for all these big new electric car lines? Outside of the Tesla/Panasonic partnership, is there a massive production ramp-up for cylindrical(/whatever these cars need) Li-Ions going on at the mo? Because my impression was that battery availability & price is the biggest bottleneck for electric cars right now (beyond the car companies' own general reticence till now). China. They are building most of the world's batteries already, and there is a huge governmental push for electric vehicles there to fuel the production of batteries. Tesla doesn't have a lot of time to start making money, especially since the economy has started looking a bit shaky lately.
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Apr 17, 2018 21:44
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El Grillo posted:One facet of this that I don't get at the moment is, where are the batteries coming from for all these big new electric car lines? Outside of the Tesla/Panasonic partnership, is there a massive production ramp-up for cylindrical(/whatever these cars need) Li-Ions going on at the mo? Because my impression was that battery availability & price is the biggest bottleneck for electric cars right now (beyond the car companies' own general reticence till now). Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Tesla's really the only one going cylindrical; everyone else is pouch. And, yes, things are ramping up. China's by far the biggest, but there are also some big projects in South Korea and Germany. I saw a good chart a while back but can't seem to find it.
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Apr 17, 2018 21:56
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Ola posted:That analyst which was quoted a number of pages back was right and Elon admitted he had over-automated a bit. I am grumpy about robotics industry veterans because their whole concept of automation is loving terrible, and my small team of software engineers at work made a much better piece of automation that worked great until a larger team of industry veterans decided it needed some of their poo poo right in the middle of it to "speed things up". Our three/four people had something working well in a year, that operated continuously for 3 years with only about one human intervention, remotely, every few months. Industry veterans took the next 3 years to make a component to totally gently caress it up, injecting a segment that could barely run for a day without human intervention locally (which involved humans entering a secure area, which then required our robot to re-audit everything in there, a task which would take most of a day), whose task was significantly simpler than what we already did. They basically got the whole project canceled even though it was already working in 5 locations, and faster than humans, before their helpful intervention. Apparently the industry standard is to use only garbage protocols (if you like horrors you should look up EtherNet/IP, a protocol that is somehow even worse than its terrible name, and is "one of the leading industrial protocols"), make each section of the process totally independent (so there's a potential catastrophic point of failure any time one section tries to pass something to the next section because in the interval nothing knows where the thing is), use off-the-shelf overpriced things that are worse than software (eg. image recognition cameras, rather than using regular cameras and connecting them to image recognition software, which is much more flexible in what it can do, and doesn't involve installing some lovely drivers that will stop working whenever your OS gets a security patch). Thank you for reading my rant about automation, now back to your regularly scheduled "Tesla good" "no, Tesla bad".
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Apr 18, 2018 00:53
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roomforthetuna posted:That's what someone who hired industry veterans in robotics to do their automation would say with hindsight. Without knowing anything else it kinda sounds like intentional sabotage.
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Apr 18, 2018 00:56
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RZA Encryption posted:Without knowing anything else it kinda sounds like intentional sabotage. Edit: I say this because there have been several groups of industry veterans, and they all come up with shiny videos very quickly and then productionize nothing, ever. Whereas my team makes a thing that works, and then maybe makes a lovely video of it, because we're bad at marketing. roomforthetuna fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Apr 18, 2018 |
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Apr 18, 2018 01:02
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RZA Encryption posted:Without knowing anything else it kinda sounds like intentional sabotage. Pretty sure this falls under the ancient saying “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by myopic adherence to ‘how we’ve always done it’. “
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Apr 18, 2018 01:05
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roomforthetuna posted:Sometimes we suspected that, but then if you look at the standards for automation everywhere else, what those fuckers are doing genuinely is the industry standard thing to do. I think the automation industry is just genuinely terrible and bad at its job. It seems like the goal of an automation project is a video that looks like you got a robot to do a thing, and then you sell your company to a sucker. Nobody wants to make a robot that can reliably do a thing repeatedly. Much like driving automation, manufacturing automation that can adjust to minor to major differences on the fly reliably is somewhere between extremely difficult and practically impossible if you don't have very tight control over the narrow scope of work and a bucket of funding and time.
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Apr 18, 2018 01:10
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Liquid Communism posted:Much like driving automation, manufacturing automation that can adjust to minor to major differences on the fly reliably is somewhere between extremely difficult and practically impossible if you don't have very tight control over the narrow scope of work and a bucket of funding and time.
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Apr 18, 2018 01:17
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SpaceCadetBob posted:Pretty sure this falls under the ancient saying “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by myopic adherence to ‘how we’ve always done it’. “ “It doesn’t actually matter whether something is malicious or if it is stupid because the cure for both is the same.”
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Apr 18, 2018 01:18
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stevewm posted:People seem to like the cheap Duosida branded ones. That same one is sold under multiple different "brands" on Amazon. Just lookup "level 1 evse" on Amazon. Half the results are all the same exact unit. Do you see 240v outlets in the wild? If so, would be a good idea to mod my EVSE and keep in the trunk now that I have the dedicated 240v at the house.
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Apr 18, 2018 01:22
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TraderStav posted:Do you see 240v outlets in the wild? If so, would be a good idea to mod my EVSE and keep in the trunk now that I have the dedicated 240v at the house. With exception of camp sites, not really.. But the good news is you are not modding the factory EVSE at all. You are just making a simple plug adapter to plug it into an available 240v outlet of your choosing. I did make a NEMA 14-50 adapter for use at a campground I stay at a few times a year. The majority of the time I ever use the factory EVSE is on standard 120v though.
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Apr 18, 2018 01:54
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Thanks for all the advice. LOL @ lovely industry automation, I have no problem believing this. I work in IT doing sysadmin / devops work and I now support video (liner TV) serving infrastructure. It is unbelievable how lovely the state of video serving technology is. We do IT like it's 20 years ago. Any process that should be easy to automate isn't due to using legacy, ancient, poorly designed, and unsupported platforms. We have teams of offshore humans doing manual tasks that a second year CS student could script in a long weekend. :endrant: Looks like I will be able to get away with a NEMA 14-50 to the garage and not upgrade electrical service (not %100 sure yet, but looks that way) yay for saving potentially 1000's of dollars. I like Elon's leaked email about the downtime at the factory. https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-model-3-production-goal-6000-units-per-week/ I have seen these type of things from good leaders before (Just leave meetings your not needed in!! Try putting that in to practice and see how it goes...), plenty of good stuff packed with plenty of BS. I am skeptical line level workers will really be empowered / motivated / enabled to improve things like he is asking, to may layer of middle management just make it to hard, I have never seen it at large organizations. Hope I am wrong. Telsa fans will see this as "Not only is everything ok at Tesla, Elon is personal solving all the problems and increasing production with his shining charisma alone!!" and haters will be more doom and gloom then ever. Of course, both are wrong and truth is we just have to wait to see what Tesla can actually pull off in the next year or so.
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Apr 18, 2018 02:57
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spandexcajun posted:I have seen these type of things from good leaders before (Just leave meetings your not needed in!! Try putting that in to practice and see how it goes...), plenty of good stuff packed with plenty of BS. I am skeptical line level workers will really be empowered / motivated / enabled to improve things like he is asking, to may layer of middle management just make it to hard, I have never seen it at large organizations. Hope I am wrong. If you want to fix culture issues, you'll do a lot better if upper management is talking the talk than you will if they aren't. But I agree that words aren't sufficient on their own.
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Apr 18, 2018 03:29
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Once again, GM has a hit on their hands and has accurately predicted WHAT CONSUMERS WANT...Who am I kidding?"" posted:"Buick, a brand not known for adventurous styling...." Wow. https://www.engadget.com/2018/04/18/buick-enspire-offroad-ev-concept/
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Apr 18, 2018 15:20
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The Sicilian posted:Once again, GM has a hit on their hands and has accurately predicted WHAT CONSUMERS WANT...Who am I kidding? I'm calling it now. 2021 Buick Enspire is a GenII Bolt rebadge. No other changes.
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Apr 18, 2018 15:30
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